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Obama/Romney Polls Skewed - NOT

 
Debunker
User ID: 19099851
United States
09/23/2012 09:58 AM
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Obama/Romney Polls Skewed - NOT
All over GLP we see the conspiracytards claiming that the Obama/Romney polls are wrong because democrats are being oversampled.

OK conspiracytards, I'm going to educate you. Let me start out by saying that I support Romney. I didn't vote for Obama - either time (just sent in my absentee ballot for this time). But you guys need to stop embracing this "skewed poll" delusion by learning about STATISTICS.

Polls are done by stratified random samples. If a poll is done right, the political affiliation percentage of the SAMPLE GROUP will approximate the percentage of the POPULATION.

Currently, approximately 35% of people are registered democrat and 27% republican. Since most polls sample REGISTERED VOTERS, that means THEY WILL NATURALLY SAMPLE MORE DEMOCRATS.

There IS NOT PURPOSEFUL SKEW. THE SKEW IS THERE BECAUSE ITS REALITY. AND IN REALITY, REGISTERED DEMOCRATS ARE MORE LIKELY TO VOTER FOR OBAMA.

There is no cheating going on with the polls, the public is just too stupid to understand how statistics actually work.
Anonymous Coward (OP)
User ID: 19099851
United States
09/23/2012 10:01 AM
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Re: Obama/Romney Polls Skewed - NOT
REMEMBER CONSPIRACYTARDS - STATISTICS ***APPROXIMATE*** THE POPULATION. Due to how samples work, you will not sample the exact subgroup percent that the population has.

For example, even though we have 51% female population if you poll the general population you will find you get 48-53% female respondents. That doesn't mean the poll is wrong.

THAT IS WHY POLLS HAVE MARGINS OF ERROR AND YOU SHOULD READ THEM. MOST POLLS HAVE A 3% MARGIN OF ERROR. THAT MEANS THE "ACTUAL VALUE" IS NOT IN THE REPORTED NUMBER BUT THAT NUMBER MINUS 3% AND THAT NUMBER PLUS 3%

IE IF IT SAYS OBAMA 49 ROMNEY 51 MARGIN OF ERROR +/- 3%

THE ACTUAL NUMBER IS

OBAMA 46-52
ROMNEY 48-54
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 24401954
United States
09/25/2012 05:44 PM
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Re: Obama/Romney Polls Skewed - NOT
They're using 2008 turnout models for likely voters. That's the issue. No way there will be 2008 Democrat turnout this time around.

I'm not necessarily endorsing this web site, but it's worth a look:

[link to www.unskewedpolls.com]
 Quoting: Super Bowl Dave


No, they're not.

Some are using 2008 models and some are using 2010 models. Some count registered voters and some count 'likely' voters. Some count cell phones and some don't. But Dean Chambers is 100% full of shit and ALL the polls except for Rasmussen and Gallup show big Obama leads everywhere.


By the way Dave, how's your application for foodstamps coming along? Still collecting that unemployment insurance that the GOP opposes?
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1513486
United States
09/25/2012 05:54 PM
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Re: Obama/Romney Polls Skewed - NOT
All over GLP we see the conspiracytards claiming that the Obama/Romney polls are wrong because democrats are being oversampled.

OK conspiracytards, I'm going to educate you. Let me start out by saying that I support Romney. I didn't vote for Obama - either time (just sent in my absentee ballot for this time). But you guys need to stop embracing this "skewed poll" delusion by learning about STATISTICS.

Polls are done by stratified random samples. If a poll is done right, the political affiliation percentage of the SAMPLE GROUP will approximate the percentage of the POPULATION.

Currently, approximately 35% of people are registered democrat and 27% republican. Since most polls sample REGISTERED VOTERS, that means THEY WILL NATURALLY SAMPLE MORE DEMOCRATS.

There IS NOT PURPOSEFUL SKEW. THE SKEW IS THERE BECAUSE ITS REALITY. AND IN REALITY, REGISTERED DEMOCRATS ARE MORE LIKELY TO VOTER FOR OBAMA.

There is no cheating going on with the polls, the public is just too stupid to understand how statistics actually work.
 Quoting: Debunker 19099851


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