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Are you pissed off that your favorite candidate is losing in the polls? Fudge the numbers and be happy!

 
Anonymous Coward
09/26/2012 01:11 AM
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Are you pissed off that your favorite candidate is losing in the polls? Fudge the numbers and be happy!
This is exactly what one individual is currently doing. Romney fanboy, and wannabe statistician, Drew Chambers (of unskewedpolls.com) is not pleased with the current level of support that Romney is receiving in the polls, so like any other partisan individual he decided to take matters into his own hands. Chambers is currently taking poll results obtained from random sampling and reweighing the results because he believes that the media---liberal---is skewing the results to favor President Obama, but let's not talk about the poll results from conservative organizations such as Fox News, Rassmussen, et cetra---their polls mirror the same results within error margins. Chambers then publishes an article on the prestigious examiner.com and discusses his results---which were obtained from a flawed design. Just how does this Grade-A fucktard purge the liberal bias from the results?

[discussing one particular poll] "...the sampling is based on only 24 percent responding as Republicans, while Democrats were 33 percent, Independents were 36 and the remaining 7 percent responded otherwise. No serious observer of American politics or pollster believes that Republicans make up only 24 percent of the population. Is it precisely this under-sampling of Republicans, and proportional over-sampling of Democrats, that skews this survey."
[link to www.examiner.com]

While Chambers' methodology may seem sound to some, mainly those who do not understand statistics or Romney fanboys, it is actually flawed. Those proportions represent the actual data obtained as a result of random sampling. Random sampling allows one obtain a pretty good estimate of the true proportion of the population who may belong to some level with political preference being a factor. So if it seems as though one party could have been oversampled in a number of polls, ask yourself: Is is not more likely that partisan identification is changing? Let's not let facts, methodology, or rigor stand in the way of allowing everyone to circle jerk around bogus poll results obtained from a flawed design.

Drew Chambers' website: [link to www.unskewedpolls.com]
PravdaDemocrat

User ID: 19228212
United States
09/26/2012 01:22 AM

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Re: Are you pissed off that your favorite candidate is losing in the polls? Fudge the numbers and be happy!
Sure it does....
And Dems retained control of the House, and Scott Walker lost the Wisconsin Recall too! Right??

Obama won Ohio by 5 points in 2008.

In 2010, the GOP won by 17% in a senate race, 2% in the governor race (beat an incumbant), won 13 out of 18 house races, beat the incumbant AG by 2%, won SOS by 13%, auditor by 5%, and treasurer by 14%.

Of course, the only conlcusion I can make is that Dems should be oversampled by 11 points!
Anonymous Coward
09/26/2012 01:26 AM
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Re: Are you pissed off that your favorite candidate is losing in the polls? Fudge the numbers and be happy!
Sure it does....
And Dems retained control of the House, and Scott Walker lost the Wisconsin Recall too! Right??

Obama won Ohio by 5 points in 2008.

In 2010, the GOP won by 17% in a senate race, 2% in the governor race (beat an incumbant), won 13 out of 18 house races, beat the incumbant AG by 2%, won SOS by 13%, auditor by 5%, and treasurer by 14%.

Of course, the only conlcusion I can make is that Dems should be oversampled by 11 points!
 Quoting: PravdaDemocrat


yet you have nothing of substance to add other than your usual rant. Why have you ignored my replies in your other threads? I take it math/stats is not your strongest area but of course you like to pretend that it is until someone asks you legitimate questions that google cannot help you with.

Let me break it down barney style for you:
1) These statistics should not be treated in this manner as the design is flawed.
2) How can you justify his actions?
Bunker Bill

User ID: 24435082
United States
09/26/2012 01:30 AM
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Re: Are you pissed off that your favorite candidate is losing in the polls? Fudge the numbers and be happy!
I'd bet you that you are in your mid to late twenties.

That's a good thing, cuz you'll be around to see the destruction that Obama left this country in.

Have fun living in a fourth world socialist country where everyone is equal. That is equally poverty stricken and under the thumb of an oppressive of some commie dictator.

I am no fan boy, as you put it, of either choices, but as I see it freedom still out ranks oppression.

But all the youth think about is themselves in the short term and in a very narrow way tomorrow.

It takes work for the left to brainwash the public and it seems to be working, but we still have an election that will decide who is right.

By the way,is this a call out post? Sure sounds like one.

Last Edited by Bunker Bill on 09/26/2012 01:31 AM
Dig deeper for the end is nigh.

On second thought, fuck digging, just find a sink hole!!!
PravdaDemocrat

User ID: 19228212
United States
09/26/2012 01:35 AM

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Re: Are you pissed off that your favorite candidate is losing in the polls? Fudge the numbers and be happy!
Sure it does....
And Dems retained control of the House, and Scott Walker lost the Wisconsin Recall too! Right??

Obama won Ohio by 5 points in 2008.

In 2010, the GOP won by 17% in a senate race, 2% in the governor race (beat an incumbant), won 13 out of 18 house races, beat the incumbant AG by 2%, won SOS by 13%, auditor by 5%, and treasurer by 14%.

Of course, the only conlcusion I can make is that Dems should be oversampled by 11 points!
 Quoting: PravdaDemocrat


yet you have nothing of substance to add other than your usual rant. Why have you ignored my replies in your other threads? I take it math/stats is not your strongest area but of course you like to pretend that it is until someone asks you legitimate questions that google cannot help you with.

Let me break it down barney style for you:
1) These statistics should not be treated in this manner as both the design is flawed.
2) How can you justify his actions?
 Quoting: Wonkish


Of course, I'll bet it hasn't dawned on you to ask WHY Obama is constantly visiting Ohio, and spending 20-25% of his ad budget there, BEFORE THE FIRST DEBATE, has it?

If Obama is so far ahead, why is he spending so much in Ohio??

I'll bet MSNBC forgot to tellyou this part, didn't they...
Anonymous Coward
09/26/2012 01:36 AM
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Re: Are you pissed off that your favorite candidate is losing in the polls? Fudge the numbers and be happy!
Sure it does....
And Dems retained control of the House, and Scott Walker lost the Wisconsin Recall too! Right??

Obama won Ohio by 5 points in 2008.

In 2010, the GOP won by 17% in a senate race, 2% in the governor race (beat an incumbant), won 13 out of 18 house races, beat the incumbant AG by 2%, won SOS by 13%, auditor by 5%, and treasurer by 14%.

Of course, the only conlcusion I can make is that Dems should be oversampled by 11 points!
 Quoting: PravdaDemocrat


yet you have nothing of substance to add other than your usual rant. Why have you ignored my replies in your other threads? I take it math/stats is not your strongest area but of course you like to pretend that it is until someone asks you legitimate questions that google cannot help you with.

Let me break it down barney style for you:
1) These statistics should not be treated in this manner as both the design is flawed.
2) How can you justify his actions?
 Quoting: Wonkish


Of course, I'll bet it hasn't dawned on you to ask WHY Obama is constantly visiting Ohio, and spending 20-25% of his ad budget there, BEFORE THE FIRST DEBATE, has it?

If Obama is so far ahead, why is he spending so much in Ohio??

I'll bet MSNBC forgot to tellyou this part, didn't they...
 Quoting: PravdaDemocrat


Can you answer my simple question or not?
PravdaDemocrat

User ID: 19228212
United States
09/26/2012 01:38 AM

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Re: Are you pissed off that your favorite candidate is losing in the polls? Fudge the numbers and be happy!
Sure it does....
And Dems retained control of the House, and Scott Walker lost the Wisconsin Recall too! Right??

Obama won Ohio by 5 points in 2008.

In 2010, the GOP won by 17% in a senate race, 2% in the governor race (beat an incumbant), won 13 out of 18 house races, beat the incumbant AG by 2%, won SOS by 13%, auditor by 5%, and treasurer by 14%.

Of course, the only conlcusion I can make is that Dems should be oversampled by 11 points!
 Quoting: PravdaDemocrat


yet you have nothing of substance to add other than your usual rant. Why have you ignored my replies in your other threads? I take it math/stats is not your strongest area but of course you like to pretend that it is until someone asks you legitimate questions that google cannot help you with.

Let me break it down barney style for you:
1) These statistics should not be treated in this manner as both the design is flawed.
2) How can you justify his actions?
 Quoting: Wonkish


Of course, I'll bet it hasn't dawned on you to ask WHY Obama is constantly visiting Ohio, and spending 20-25% of his ad budget there, BEFORE THE FIRST DEBATE, has it?

If Obama is so far ahead, why is he spending so much in Ohio??

I'll bet MSNBC forgot to tellyou this part, didn't they...
 Quoting: PravdaDemocrat


Can you answer my simple question or not?
 Quoting: Wonkish


I might, if I could figure out what you are trying to ask....
Anonymous Coward
09/26/2012 01:39 AM
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Re: Are you pissed off that your favorite candidate is losing in the polls? Fudge the numbers and be happy!
...


yet you have nothing of substance to add other than your usual rant. Why have you ignored my replies in your other threads? I take it math/stats is not your strongest area but of course you like to pretend that it is until someone asks you legitimate questions that google cannot help you with.

Let me break it down barney style for you:
1) These statistics should not be treated in this manner as both the design is flawed.
2) How can you justify his actions?
 Quoting: Wonkish


Of course, I'll bet it hasn't dawned on you to ask WHY Obama is constantly visiting Ohio, and spending 20-25% of his ad budget there, BEFORE THE FIRST DEBATE, has it?

If Obama is so far ahead, why is he spending so much in Ohio??

I'll bet MSNBC forgot to tellyou this part, didn't they...
 Quoting: PravdaDemocrat


Can you answer my simple question or not?
 Quoting: Wonkish


I might, if I could figure out what you are trying to ask....
 Quoting: PravdaDemocrat


Let's try this again as you seem to be having a hard time with this one shall we?

1) These statistics should not be treated in this manner as the design is flawed.
2) How can you justify his actions?
PravdaDemocrat

User ID: 19228212
United States
09/26/2012 01:45 AM

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Re: Are you pissed off that your favorite candidate is losing in the polls? Fudge the numbers and be happy!
...


Of course, I'll bet it hasn't dawned on you to ask WHY Obama is constantly visiting Ohio, and spending 20-25% of his ad budget there, BEFORE THE FIRST DEBATE, has it?

If Obama is so far ahead, why is he spending so much in Ohio??

I'll bet MSNBC forgot to tellyou this part, didn't they...
 Quoting: PravdaDemocrat


Can you answer my simple question or not?
 Quoting: Wonkish


I might, if I could figure out what you are trying to ask....
 Quoting: PravdaDemocrat


Let's try this again as you seem to be having a hard time with this one shall we?

1) These statistics should not be treated in this manner as the design is flawed.
2) How can you justify his actions?
 Quoting: Wonkish


Whose actions?
What statistics?
Anonymous Coward
09/26/2012 01:50 AM
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Re: Are you pissed off that your favorite candidate is losing in the polls? Fudge the numbers and be happy!
...


Can you answer my simple question or not?
 Quoting: Wonkish


I might, if I could figure out what you are trying to ask....
 Quoting: PravdaDemocrat


Let's try this again as you seem to be having a hard time with this one shall we?

1) These statistics should not be treated in this manner as the design is flawed.
2) How can you justify his actions?
 Quoting: Wonkish


Whose actions?
What statistics?
 Quoting: PravdaDemocrat


Playing dumb now huh? Chambers' actions and the statistics that he manipulates.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 23966417
United States
09/26/2012 01:51 AM
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Re: Are you pissed off that your favorite candidate is losing in the polls? Fudge the numbers and be happy!
i'm gonna tell frank luntz and karl rove on you OP.
PravdaDemocrat

User ID: 19228212
United States
09/26/2012 01:53 AM

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Re: Are you pissed off that your favorite candidate is losing in the polls? Fudge the numbers and be happy!
...


I might, if I could figure out what you are trying to ask....
 Quoting: PravdaDemocrat


Let's try this again as you seem to be having a hard time with this one shall we?

1) These statistics should not be treated in this manner as the design is flawed.
2) How can you justify his actions?
 Quoting: Wonkish


Whose actions?
What statistics?
 Quoting: PravdaDemocrat


Playing dumb now huh? Chambers' actions and the statistics that he manipulates.
 Quoting: Wonkish


1) How do you know his model is flawed?
2) Easy to justify when Mainstream media-paid polls are running as much as 10 points ABOVE 2008 turnouts, to show Obama leading by just a couple of points in key states.

3) Why does it bother you so??? Were you one of those people cheering Scott Walker's defeat along with MSNBC, before the results came in?
Anonymous Coward
09/26/2012 01:57 AM
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Re: Are you pissed off that your favorite candidate is losing in the polls? Fudge the numbers and be happy!
...


Let's try this again as you seem to be having a hard time with this one shall we?

1) These statistics should not be treated in this manner as the design is flawed.
2) How can you justify his actions?
 Quoting: Wonkish


Whose actions?
What statistics?
 Quoting: PravdaDemocrat


Playing dumb now huh? Chambers' actions and the statistics that he manipulates.
 Quoting: Wonkish


1) How do you know his model is flawed?
2) Easy to justify when Mainstream media-paid polls are running as much as 10 points ABOVE 2008 turnouts, to show Obama leading by just a couple of points in key states.

3) Why does it bother you so??? Were you one of those people cheering Scott Walker's defeat along with MSNBC, before the results came in?
 Quoting: PravdaDemocrat


1) by convention
2) So you cannot justify his actions other than playing the blame game and throwing convention/rigor out the window?
3) Irrelevant question. Nice try though.

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