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2012 DA14 - Satellite Collision Risk - Now Ruled Out with New Data on Page 2!!!

 
Dr. AstroModerator
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2012 DA14 - Satellite Collision Risk - Now Ruled Out with New Data on Page 2!!!
At the suggestion of GLP member SE last week, I decided to do another analysis of 2012 DA14's close approach to earth in February, this time looking for potential collisions with geosynchronous satellites. Although the uncertainty region shows that a collision with earth is not a possibility, a collision with a satellite cannot be completely ruled out. National Geographic even published an article about this on their website back in May, but they never spelled out which satellites are most at risk (though again, "most" in this case is still extremely low).
[link to news.nationalgeographic.com]

Here's my analysis, showing which satellites are at risk:


Last Edited by Dr. Astro on 02/07/2013 08:00 PM
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Re: 2012 DA14 - Satellite Collision Risk - Now Ruled Out with New Data on Page 2!!!
abump
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Re: 2012 DA14 - Satellite Collision Risk - Now Ruled Out with New Data on Page 2!!!
Bring on the doom.
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Re: 2012 DA14 - Satellite Collision Risk - Now Ruled Out with New Data on Page 2!!!
Will Iphone still work?
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Re: 2012 DA14 - Satellite Collision Risk - Now Ruled Out with New Data on Page 2!!!
ima be pissed if it fucks up game of thrones getting on the air with new shows
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Re: 2012 DA14 - Satellite Collision Risk - Now Ruled Out with New Data on Page 2!!!
Satellite Domino effect Doom?
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Re: 2012 DA14 - Satellite Collision Risk - Now Ruled Out with New Data on Page 2!!!
Billiard Ball Effect.
Comforting the disturbed and disturbing the comfortable.

"So long as it harms no other, do what thou wilt shall be the whole of the Law"
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Re: 2012 DA14 - Satellite Collision Risk - Now Ruled Out with New Data on Page 2!!!
Billiard Ball Effect.
 Quoting: Silent Wind


LOL, yeah, better wording than mine.

BTW, do the alloys that the satellites are made of, can be affected (pulled) by a magnetic body?
Dr. AstroModerator (OP)
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Re: 2012 DA14 - Satellite Collision Risk - Now Ruled Out with New Data on Page 2!!!
Billiard Ball Effect.
 Quoting: Silent Wind


LOL, yeah, better wording than mine.

BTW, do the alloys that the satellites are made of, can be affected (pulled) by a magnetic body?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 24406931


I suppose, but it's not going to be detectably affected by a "magnetic asteroid" if that's what you're thinking. Such a force would decrease with the inverse cube of the distance, not the inverse square as with gravity. The relative velocity between any of these satellites and the asteroid is also so high that it makes either the gravity or magnetism of the asteroid irrelevant.
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Re: 2012 DA14 - Satellite Collision Risk - Now Ruled Out with New Data on Page 2!!!
Billiard Ball Effect.
 Quoting: Silent Wind


LOL, yeah, better wording than mine.

BTW, do the alloys that the satellites are made of, can be affected (pulled) by a magnetic body?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 24406931


I suppose, but it's not going to be detectably affected by a "magnetic asteroid" if that's what you're thinking. Such a force would decrease with the inverse cube of the distance, not the inverse square as with gravity. The relative velocity between any of these satellites and the asteroid is also so high that it makes either the gravity or magnetism of the asteroid irrelevant.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


Cheers
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Re: 2012 DA14 - Satellite Collision Risk - Now Ruled Out with New Data on Page 2!!!
there are a lot of problems in that orbit. normally there is only supposed to be a satellite every 2deg or so, but lately they have been double and triple stacking them. most of the "stacks" will be of different bands, such as c-band Ka, Ku, EHF, X (and whatnot).

What is worrying me is they started to stack the linear wave length satellites. Normally there is supposed to be a 30db isolation between polarities. However with like-satellites being only .5 degrees apart and a polarity difference of 45 degrees, the max you could effectively get is about 20 db of isolation between all polarities and satellites.

What this does is increase the required powers of the carriers and subsequently increases the noise floor of the satellite. This will result in a lowering of available bandwidth by the required increases of guard-bands.

We need to get rid of some of these older satellites out of the orbit because their flight patterns are taking up to almost 3 degrees. I mean, sure traffic can still be passed, but the doppler effect is starting to cause an extreme amount of errors.
He who commands the past, controlls the future. He who controlls the future, commands the Past.
Éireann
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Re: 2012 DA14 - Satellite Collision Risk - Now Ruled Out with New Data on Page 2!!!
Wow! That's so cool!!

How long does it take you to input all of that data? I know that the satellite data is probably already provided in a downloadable format that can be plugged in, but is the asteroid data you use also formatted that way or do you have to put in each possible position by hand?
Éireann~

Eisteacht le gra! ~ArunaLuna (Translation from Gaelic: "Listen to Love!")

"And I sincerely believe, with you, that banking establishments are more dangerous than standing armies; and that the principle of spending money to be paid by posterity, under the name of funding, is but swindling futurity on a large scale." - Thomas Jefferson, from a Letter to John Taylor written in 1816

"Unfortunately, it is in the nature of man to tinker - even with immutable truth. Thus, we must be ever vigilant... - James Munford

It is a sad fate for a man to die too well known to everybody else, and still unknown to himself. - Francis Bacon

"Better the illusions that exalt us than ten thousand truths" - Aleksander Pushkin
*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~
I do not give negative Karma. I believe that all opinions are worthy of debate and discussion. Free speech is essential to the growth and advancement of each individual and all of Humankind.
Dr. AstroModerator (OP)
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09/26/2012 12:24 PM

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Re: 2012 DA14 - Satellite Collision Risk - Now Ruled Out with New Data on Page 2!!!
Wow! That's so cool!!

How long does it take you to input all of that data? I know that the satellite data is probably already provided in a downloadable format that can be plugged in, but is the asteroid data you use also formatted that way or do you have to put in each possible position by hand?
 Quoting: Éireann


FindOrb generates the possible positions in a standard format (MPC format) which ORSA can natively read. It took about 24 hours for ORSA to calculate the simulation though once all of the satellites and asteroid positions were loaded (because it has to compute the effect of the gravity of all the planets on each of the satellites and the asteroid positions).
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Re: 2012 DA14 - Satellite Collision Risk - Now Ruled Out with New Data on Page 2!!!
Oh no, no ESPN. Whatever will the testosterone do??

eyebat
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Éireann
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Re: 2012 DA14 - Satellite Collision Risk - Now Ruled Out with New Data on Page 2!!!
Wow! That's so cool!!

How long does it take you to input all of that data? I know that the satellite data is probably already provided in a downloadable format that can be plugged in, but is the asteroid data you use also formatted that way or do you have to put in each possible position by hand?
 Quoting: Éireann


FindOrb generates the possible positions in a standard format (MPC format) which ORSA can natively read. It took about 24 hours for ORSA to calculate the simulation though once all of the satellites and asteroid positions were loaded (because it has to compute the effect of the gravity of all the planets on each of the satellites and the asteroid positions).
 Quoting: Dr. Astro

Thanks!

24 hours with a computer. Youch! I can't imagine how many people that would take to do it with a slide ruler, pencil, and paper!
Éireann~

Eisteacht le gra! ~ArunaLuna (Translation from Gaelic: "Listen to Love!")

"And I sincerely believe, with you, that banking establishments are more dangerous than standing armies; and that the principle of spending money to be paid by posterity, under the name of funding, is but swindling futurity on a large scale." - Thomas Jefferson, from a Letter to John Taylor written in 1816

"Unfortunately, it is in the nature of man to tinker - even with immutable truth. Thus, we must be ever vigilant... - James Munford

It is a sad fate for a man to die too well known to everybody else, and still unknown to himself. - Francis Bacon

"Better the illusions that exalt us than ten thousand truths" - Aleksander Pushkin
*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~
I do not give negative Karma. I believe that all opinions are worthy of debate and discussion. Free speech is essential to the growth and advancement of each individual and all of Humankind.
jacksprat

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Re: 2012 DA14 - Satellite Collision Risk - Now Ruled Out with New Data on Page 2!!!
No Nibiru?
jacksprat
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Re: 2012 DA14 - Satellite Collision Risk - Now Ruled Out with New Data on Page 2!!!
How normal/common is it for a Weather Satellite to break down seeing GOES-13 failed the other day? This is the first I have heard of this happening, but could be I just was not paying attention.

Thank you
Anonymous Coward
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Re: 2012 DA14 - Satellite Collision Risk - Now Ruled Out with New Data on Page 2!!!
Oh no, no ESPN. Whatever will the testosterone do??

eyebat
 Quoting: ExoPoliChick


Read a book for the first time?
Dr. AstroModerator (OP)
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Re: 2012 DA14 - Satellite Collision Risk - Now Ruled Out with New Data on Page 2!!!
How normal/common is it for a Weather Satellite to break down seeing GOES-13 failed the other day? This is the first I have heard of this happening, but could be I just was not paying attention.

Thank you
 Quoting: eaglewolf


It's not unheard of.
[link to en.wikipedia.org]
[link to en.wikipedia.org]
[link to en.wikipedia.org]
Satellites do get old and break down, though the line of GOES satellites are usually quite reliable, but even they are eventually retired from service.
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Re: 2012 DA14 - Satellite Collision Risk - Now Ruled Out with New Data on Page 2!!!
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Re: 2012 DA14 - Satellite Collision Risk - Now Ruled Out with New Data on Page 2!!!
Billiard Ball Effect.
 Quoting: Silent Wind


LOL, yeah, better wording than mine.

BTW, do the alloys that the satellites are made of, can be affected (pulled) by a magnetic body?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 24406931


I suppose, but it's not going to be detectably affected by a "magnetic asteroid" if that's what you're thinking. Such a force would decrease with the inverse cube of the distance, not the inverse square as with gravity. The relative velocity between any of these satellites and the asteroid is also so high that it makes either the gravity or magnetism of the asteroid irrelevant.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


You're obviously unfamiliar with magno-meteors....so powerful, they'll make your brooms stand on end...
broom

tounge
SE

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Re: 2012 DA14 - Satellite Collision Risk - Now Ruled Out with New Data on Page 2!!!
At the suggestion of GLP member SE last week, I decided to do another analysis of 2012 DA14's close approach to earth in February, this time looking for potential collisions with geosynchronous satellites. Although the uncertainty region shows that a collision with earth is not a possibility, a collision with a satellite cannot be completely ruled out. National Geographic even published an article about this on their website back in May, but they never spelled out which satellites are most at risk (though again, "most" in this case is still extremely low).
[link to news.nationalgeographic.com]

Here's my analysis, showing which satellites are at risk:

 Quoting: Dr. Astro


Thanks again for your work Astro!
I know it takes quite an effort to load in all that data from the various ephemerides - it is appreciated!
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Re: 2012 DA14 - Satellite Collision Risk - Now Ruled Out with New Data on Page 2!!!
Doesnt a prophecy dass hat swhtf after international space Station was hit by debris??
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Re: 2012 DA14 - Satellite Collision Risk - Now Ruled Out with New Data on Page 2!!!
Doesnt a prophecy dass hat swhtf after international space Station was hit by debris??
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 22933529


Says that swhtf, sorry auto corection :-)
SE

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Re: 2012 DA14 - Satellite Collision Risk - Now Ruled Out with New Data on Page 2!!!
Doesnt a prophecy dass hat swhtf after international space Station was hit by debris??
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 22933529


the only prophecy I'm aware of regarding evacuation of ISS is by Major Ed Dames an ex project Stargate ( [link to en.wikipedia.org] ) remote viewer.
He's known as Dr. Doom for his negative prophecies surrouding an undated future solar event he calls The Kill Shot...
see [link to www.thekillshot.com]
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Re: 2012 DA14 - Satellite Collision Risk - Now Ruled Out with New Data on Page 2!!!
Wow Astro, I thought you were a crusty old fart from your posts.. the voice does not match
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Re: 2012 DA14 - Satellite Collision Risk - Now Ruled Out with New Data on Page 2!!!
Doesnt a prophecy dass hat swhtf after international space Station was hit by debris??
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 22933529


the only prophecy I'm aware of regarding evacuation of ISS is by Major Ed Dames an ex project Stargate ( [link to en.wikipedia.org] ) remote viewer.
He's known as Dr. Doom for his negative prophecies surrouding an undated future solar event he calls The Kill Shot...
see [link to www.thekillshot.com]
 Quoting: SE


[link to www.youtube.com]
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Re: 2012 DA14 - Satellite Collision Risk - Now Ruled Out with New Data on Page 2!!!
abump
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


rofl




[link to www.universetoday.com]

Last Edited by Rain-Man on 09/26/2012 04:47 PM
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Re: 2012 DA14 - Satellite Collision Risk - Now Ruled Out with New Data on Page 2!!!
Billiard Ball Effect.
 Quoting: Silent Wind


LOL, yeah, better wording than mine.

BTW, do the alloys that the satellites are made of, can be affected (pulled) by a magnetic body?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 24406931


I suppose, but it's not going to be detectably affected by a "magnetic asteroid" if that's what you're thinking. Such a force would decrease with the inverse cube of the distance, not the inverse square as with gravity. The relative velocity between any of these satellites and the asteroid is also so high that it makes either the gravity or magnetism of the asteroid irrelevant.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


Please, Would you mind to explain this?
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Re: 2012 DA14 - Satellite Collision Risk - Now Ruled Out with New Data on Page 2!!!
For those of you who were wondering like me how close this was projected to get to the Earth, here is a Wikipedia excerpt:

"Calculations show that on February 15, 2013, the distance between the asteroid and the Earth will be 0.09 LD (35,000 km; 21,000 mi). This is potentially closer than satellites in geosynchronous orbit. The asteroid will not be visible to the naked eye."
Dr. AstroModerator (OP)
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Re: 2012 DA14 - Satellite Collision Risk - Now Ruled Out with New Data on Page 2!!!
Billiard Ball Effect.
 Quoting: Silent Wind


LOL, yeah, better wording than mine.

BTW, do the alloys that the satellites are made of, can be affected (pulled) by a magnetic body?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 24406931


I suppose, but it's not going to be detectably affected by a "magnetic asteroid" if that's what you're thinking. Such a force would decrease with the inverse cube of the distance, not the inverse square as with gravity. The relative velocity between any of these satellites and the asteroid is also so high that it makes either the gravity or magnetism of the asteroid irrelevant.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


Please, Would you mind to explain this?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 24473625


[link to www.gsjournal.net]
Here's an elementary level demonstration of the concept:
[link to image.gsfc.nasa.gov]
You'll first need to build one of these:
[link to image.gsfc.nasa.gov]
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