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A BIG ONE ON THE WAY

 
Serendipitous

User ID: 17919960
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09/28/2012 11:07 PM

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Re: A BIG ONE ON THE WAY
Thanks for all the time and energy you've put into this thread to keep people informed. It was incredibly interesting to follow (until the recent trolling anyway).

So you know, I personally never thought there was doom - just a big CME, so from a third party point of view I didn't feel misled. I think it was made clear in the beginning that it wasn't "THE" big one, at least I never thought it was. Just like a "big storm" doesn't mean a Cat 5 hurricane - and it's interesting to watch and see it play out.

Anyway, just wanted to thank you Snakebite, Shad and everyone else keeping us in the loop.
"May your electricity go out a second before the shit hits the fan." -Conspiracy Theorist's Blessing

”Your work is not to drag the world kicking and screaming into a new awareness. Your job is to simply do your work… Sacredly, Secretly, and Silently … and those with ‘eyes to see and ears to hear’, will respond.”
SnakeBite

User ID: 20003075
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09/28/2012 11:18 PM
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Re: A BIG ONE ON THE WAY
...


OK??IhopeONEdayYOUgrowUP:)
 Quoting: SnakeBite


Please give me valid intelligent argument....how does anything I said make you feel that I am not grown?
 Quoting: KillerWhales


OOiDUNNO..THEfactTHATyouAREtryingTOargueOVERnothingMAYBE:PIMo​nAlapTOP,SPILTcocaoolaWOULDbeTHEculpritANDiREALLYdoNOThaveTHE​timeTOhaveITfixedATthisPOINT,GLADweCOULDclearTHINGSup
 Quoting: SnakeBite


bro, I feel for you man, You have no actual argument, So I told you keyboards are cheap, and that I heed Ops warning...
But according to you, OP has no warning, when, infact, OP himself said, Yes it is a warning....

Do you have asbergers?
 Quoting: KillerWhales


LETSputANendTOthis:)BACKtoTHEsolarWATCHING:D
SnakeBite

User ID: 20003075
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09/28/2012 11:19 PM
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Re: A BIG ONE ON THE WAY
Thanks for all the time and energy you've put into this thread to keep people informed. It was incredibly interesting to follow (until the recent trolling anyway).

So you know, I personally never thought there was doom - just a big CME, so from a third party point of view I didn't feel misled. I think it was made clear in the beginning that it wasn't "THE" big one, at least I never thought it was. Just like a "big storm" doesn't mean a Cat 5 hurricane - and it's interesting to watch and see it play out.

Anyway, just wanted to thank you Snakebite, Shad and everyone else keeping us in the loop.
 Quoting: Serendipitous

WELLsaid:D
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 23430072
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09/28/2012 11:59 PM
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Re: A BIG ONE ON THE WAY
...


Please give me valid intelligent argument....how does anything I said make you feel that I am not grown?
 Quoting: KillerWhales


OOiDUNNO..THEfactTHATyouAREtryingTOargueOVERnothingMAYBE:PIMo​nAlapTOP,SPILTcocaoolaWOULDbeTHEculpritANDiREALLYdoNOThaveTHE​timeTOhaveITfixedATthisPOINT,GLADweCOULDclearTHINGSup
 Quoting: SnakeBite


bro, I feel for you man, You have no actual argument, So I told you keyboards are cheap, and that I heed Ops warning...
But according to you, OP has no warning, when, infact, OP himself said, Yes it is a warning....

Do you have asbergers?
 Quoting: KillerWhales


LETSputANendTOthis:)BACKtoTHEsolarWATCHING:D
 Quoting: SnakeBite


Snakebite~ it's ok. Apparently he can't comprehend exactly what you are typing. & please don't get a new keyboard, I rather like your style of typing. Plus, I always know it's you! wink Ok, back to topic now.
SnakeBite

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09/29/2012 12:07 AM
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Re: A BIG ONE ON THE WAY
...


OOiDUNNO..THEfactTHATyouAREtryingTOargueOVERnothingMAYBE:PIMo​nAlapTOP,SPILTcocaoolaWOULDbeTHEculpritANDiREALLYdoNOThaveTHE​timeTOhaveITfixedATthisPOINT,GLADweCOULDclearTHINGSup
 Quoting: SnakeBite


bro, I feel for you man, You have no actual argument, So I told you keyboards are cheap, and that I heed Ops warning...
But according to you, OP has no warning, when, infact, OP himself said, Yes it is a warning....

Do you have asbergers?
 Quoting: KillerWhales


LETSputANendTOthis:)BACKtoTHEsolarWATCHING:D
 Quoting: SnakeBite


Snakebite~ it's ok. Apparently he can't comprehend exactly what you are typing. & please don't get a new keyboard, I rather like your style of typing. Plus, I always know it's you! wink Ok, back to topic now.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 23430072


toungepeace
0pEnLy~Gr@y

User ID: 24442987
Australia
09/29/2012 12:17 AM
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Re: A BIG ONE ON THE WAY
Come o0n guys ..

Nothing unusual ..

Only some CME but nothing to worry, CME was medium-strong nothing else ..

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]
 Quoting: Rain-Man


hf
~Gr@y Believer~
Anonymous Coward
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09/29/2012 12:26 AM
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Re: A BIG ONE ON THE WAY
Have fun on you electronic devices and computers. In two days we will all be living in the Stone Age.
SnakeBite

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09/29/2012 12:26 AM
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Re: A BIG ONE ON THE WAY
Come o0n guys ..

Nothing unusual ..

Only some CME but nothing to worry, CME was medium-strong nothing else ..

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]
 Quoting: Rain-Man


hf
 Quoting: 0pEnLy~Gr@y


STILLaVALIDandINTERESTINGthingTOwatch:)

Last Edited by SnakeBite on 09/29/2012 12:27 AM
SnakeBite

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09/29/2012 12:27 AM
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Re: A BIG ONE ON THE WAY
Have fun on you electronic devices and computers. In two days we will all be living in the Stone Age.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 24484469


NOTlikely:)
SnakeBite

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09/29/2012 12:28 AM
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Re: A BIG ONE ON THE WAY
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
DRAPhasBEENfluctuatingUPandDOWNforAlittleNOW.
TOMMY B

User ID: 23951991
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09/29/2012 12:41 AM
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Re: A BIG ONE ON THE WAY


Last Edited by SLIPPERY NIPPPS on 09/29/2012 02:36 AM
Morning Cup Of Doom

User ID: 20524828
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09/29/2012 01:13 AM

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Re: A BIG ONE ON THE WAY
...


Thanks for that link. It doesn't look good for those living at higher latitudes.

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Sep-01 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/35/35
Minor storm 01/25/30
Major-severe storm 01/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor storm 15/25/25
Major-severe storm 05/50/65
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 24572530

This is all you need to see [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
"VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Sep-01 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/35/35
Minor storm 01/25/30
Major-severe storm 01/05/05

B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor storm 15/25/25
Major-severe storm 05/50/65"

If it was the "BIG" one, you would see Major Storms in the Mid-Latitudes as well as the High. You Don't. We ALWAYS HAVE STORMS IN THE HIGH LATITUDES WITH CMES. Always have, always will. Let me know when there are Major Storms Forecast for the Mid-Latitudes, otherwise, you are just CRYING WOLF.

huffy
 Quoting: TBar1984


Sorry, I didn't know that it was mid-latitudes that we need to focus on. BTW, I live at a high latitude so I'm a little more interested than most on this thread. I've never seen 65% probability so was curious if this was abnormal. I'm glad to hear that it isn't.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 24572530


He also needs to realize that these storms themselves may be a catalyst and not always the 'main' problem. When you have an already full particle filled ionosphere, these nucleii love to interact and create secondary radiation. I'm just providing info, and I didn't say it was THE big one, just a big filament liftoff. Insecurity in beliefs make people lash out. I'm not saying anything about jet particle doom , nibiru, or alien invasion. We had a large filament liftoff that can cause problems as our magnetosphere is puny!
 Quoting: shadasonic

I find it so funny that everyone else on this site can claim doom or false prediction dates for everything under the sun but we can't discuss a huge incoming CME.

As for Tbar, I can't wait to give you a negative tomorrow when this hits. I ask that everyone else do the same.

He is spewing the same shit over in the main solar thread! Come on, those people over in that thread watch these models everyday and know what they are doing!!

Last Edited by Morning Cup Of Doom on 09/29/2012 01:14 AM
Morning Cup Of Doom

User ID: 20524828
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09/29/2012 01:15 AM

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Re: A BIG ONE ON THE WAY
[link to sprg.ssl.berkeley.edu] Can someone check this out? Screen shot it if you can. Thanks [link to sprg.ssl.berkeley.edu]
 Quoting: TOMMY B


Never seen this one and I watch the solar thread daily. Maybe one of those pros can help us out!

hf
SnakeBite

User ID: 20003075
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09/29/2012 01:29 AM
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Re: A BIG ONE ON THE WAY
AShughSTATEDinTHEmainSOLARwatchTHREAD,THISisBOGUS.THEkINDEXri​ghtNOWisAT0,NOTHINGhasHITusYET.HOPEthatHELPS:D
TBar1984

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United States
09/29/2012 01:32 AM
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Re: A BIG ONE ON THE WAY
...

This is all you need to see [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
"VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Sep-01 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/35/35
Minor storm 01/25/30
Major-severe storm 01/05/05

B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor storm 15/25/25
Major-severe storm 05/50/65"

If it was the "BIG" one, you would see Major Storms in the Mid-Latitudes as well as the High. You Don't. We ALWAYS HAVE STORMS IN THE HIGH LATITUDES WITH CMES. Always have, always will. Let me know when there are Major Storms Forecast for the Mid-Latitudes, otherwise, you are just CRYING WOLF.

huffy
 Quoting: TBar1984


Sorry, I didn't know that it was mid-latitudes that we need to focus on. BTW, I live at a high latitude so I'm a little more interested than most on this thread. I've never seen 65% probability so was curious if this was abnormal. I'm glad to hear that it isn't.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 24572530


He also needs to realize that these storms themselves may be a catalyst and not always the 'main' problem. When you have an already full particle filled ionosphere, these nucleii love to interact and create secondary radiation. I'm just providing info, and I didn't say it was THE big one, just a big filament liftoff. Insecurity in beliefs make people lash out. I'm not saying anything about jet particle doom , nibiru, or alien invasion. We had a large filament liftoff that can cause problems as our magnetosphere is puny!
 Quoting: shadasonic

I find it so funny that everyone else on this site can claim doom or false prediction dates for everything under the sun but we can't discuss a huge incoming CME.

As for Tbar, I can't wait to give you a negative tomorrow when this hits. I ask that everyone else do the same.

He is spewing the same shit over in the main solar thread! Come on, those people over in that thread watch these models everyday and know what they are doing!!
 Quoting: Morning Cup Of Doom

Make sure you give me that positive when absolutely nothing happens on the 29th. We will get a SMALL ONE on the 30th. A spike up to around 500 km/s & below 50 cm3, giving a G2 storm. NOT QUITE A BIG ONE IS IT? Here are the correct forecasts - G2 [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
500 km/s? That is supposed to be a BIG one? [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
That agrees with the Images I studied earlier. The Big One was on the Backside, the SMALL ONE on the Front Side....G2. We were just at G1, not much of a BIG One...

Please, someone explain to the 'tard the Top Image is just a link to the readings below [link to sprg.ssl.berkeley.edu]
Morning Cup Of Doom

User ID: 20524828
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09/29/2012 01:33 AM

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Re: A BIG ONE ON THE WAY
AShughSTATEDinTHEmainSOLARwatchTHREAD,THISisBOGUS.THEkINDEX​rightNOWisAT0,NOTHINGhasHITusYET.HOPEthatHELPS:D
 Quoting: SnakeBite


Just saw that since I am always lurking the solar thread. It's my fave! By the way have you popped off your space bar yet. I have spilled coke on my many times and if you pop it off and clean it, you will be back in business!
Hugh M Eye

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09/29/2012 01:47 AM
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Re: A BIG ONE ON THE WAY
Howdy, OPhi

Both STEREO A & B missed imaging this Earth-directed CME due to huge data gaps. Here's the closest (time-wise) image taken by STEREO Behind about 3 hours after liftoff. Original image here:
[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

:earthboundCME:

SOHO Cor 2 image:

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

NASA CME Density cone model:

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

Dynamic Pressure cone model:

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]
TOMMY B

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09/29/2012 01:59 AM
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Re: A BIG ONE ON THE WAY


Last Edited by SLIPPERY NIPPPS on 09/29/2012 02:35 AM
MuzzleBreak

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09/29/2012 02:02 AM
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Re: A BIG ONE ON THE WAY
Howdy, OPhi

Both STEREO A & B missed imaging this Earth-directed CME due to huge data gaps. Here's the closest (time-wise) image taken by STEREO Behind about 3 hours after liftoff. Original image here:
[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

:earthboundCME:

SOHO Cor 2 image:

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

NASA CME Density cone model:

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

Dynamic Pressure cone model:

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


thanks.

Impressive
In his book, "Between Two Ages," Brzezinski wrote: "The technetronic era involves the gradual appearance of a more controlled society. Such a society would be dominated by an elite, unrestrained by traditional values."

MuzzleBreak
Anonymous Coward
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09/29/2012 02:06 AM
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Re: A BIG ONE ON THE WAY
boring
TBar1984

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09/29/2012 02:11 AM
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Re: A BIG ONE ON THE WAY
Howdy, OPhi

Both STEREO A & B missed imaging this Earth-directed CME due to huge data gaps. Here's the closest (time-wise) image taken by STEREO Behind about 3 hours after liftoff. Original image here:
[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

:earthboundCME:

SOHO Cor 2 image:

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

NASA CME Density cone model:

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

Dynamic Pressure cone model:

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


thanks.

Impressive
 Quoting: MuzzleBreak

Too bad most of it went upwards, away from Earth. Earth is at the Three o'Clock in that image. Not much went that way, did it. That's probably why the Forecast is for a minor G2 Storm [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] Not much going on with a G2... It will be a little higher than it is now, it's dead at present [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

yawn
dettro99

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09/29/2012 04:24 AM
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Re: A BIG ONE ON THE WAY
Finally spaceweather.com says something about the Large CME heading our way.


INCOMING SOLAR STORM CLOUD: Magnetic fields around sunspot 1577 erupted on Sept. 28th, hurling a coronal mass ejection (CME) almost directly toward Earth. The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) recorded the cloud as it raced away from the sun faster than 2.2 million mph:

NOAA forecasters estimate a 50% chance of strong geomagnetic storms around the poles on Sept 30th when the cloud reaches Earth. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras, which might be intense enough to see in spite of the full moonlight


[link to www.spaceweather.com]
pray_Italy

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Italy
09/29/2012 04:33 AM
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Re: A BIG ONE ON THE WAY
ty for the update
SnakeBite

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09/29/2012 04:38 AM
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Re: A BIG ONE ON THE WAY
Finally spaceweather.com says something about the Large CME heading our way.


INCOMING SOLAR STORM CLOUD: Magnetic fields around sunspot 1577 erupted on Sept. 28th, hurling a coronal mass ejection (CME) almost directly toward Earth. The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) recorded the cloud as it raced away from the sun faster than 2.2 million mph:

NOAA forecasters estimate a 50% chance of strong geomagnetic storms around the poles on Sept 30th when the cloud reaches Earth. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras, which might be intense enough to see in spite of the full moonlight


[link to www.spaceweather.com]
 Quoting: dettro99


THNXforTHEupdate;)
shadasonic (OP)

User ID: 15732022
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09/29/2012 05:39 AM
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Re: A BIG ONE ON THE WAY
T-BAR usually has correct info but in this case he's wrong, wrong, WRONG. STEREO A had a looong data gap last night (ditto for STEREO B) and missed the CME that occurred at 23:36utc. The far-side CME happened way earlier around 10 or 11 utc on the 27th. I think he's been reading Spaceweather.com too much, we usually beat them to the info here at SOLAR WATCH.

Also, I posted all of the pertinent data and movies I could find first thing this morning (pages 1588-89). Anyone taking the time to read up before posting wouldn't be so confused. I'll repost the SIDC comment from this morning ---

COMMENT: A C3.7 flare occurred in the vicinity of NOAA AR 1577 on Sept.
27, 2336 UT (peak time). It triggered both a weak proton event (>10 Mev
protons) whose level is near the threshold of 10 pfu at the moment, and
a fully developed halo CME as observed with LASCO C2 data.
The expansion
speed estimated from this instrument ranges from about 700 to 1000 km/s.
At the moment, only partial observations of the CME are available from
the COR2 instruments onboard STEREO
, allowing only a crude speed
estimate of about 1300 km/s. On-disk signatures of a coronal EUV waves
extending to the East of the region, nearly up to the central meridian,
together with the halo nature of the CME, suggest this event will be
geoeffective with a risk for minor storm conditions or greater by midday
on Sept. 29.

[link to sidc.oma.be]

Why the confusion? The proton event coincided with the earth-facing CME as we noted late last night. The other backside blast was 13 hours before. Shheesh.

CME Density cone model:

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye





THANKS HUGH!
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
shadasonic (OP)

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09/29/2012 05:41 AM
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Re: A BIG ONE ON THE WAY
Finally spaceweather.com says something about the Large CME heading our way.


INCOMING SOLAR STORM CLOUD: Magnetic fields around sunspot 1577 erupted on Sept. 28th, hurling a coronal mass ejection (CME) almost directly toward Earth. The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) recorded the cloud as it raced away from the sun faster than 2.2 million mph:

NOAA forecasters estimate a 50% chance of strong geomagnetic storms around the poles on Sept 30th when the cloud reaches Earth. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras, which might be intense enough to see in spite of the full moonlight


[link to www.spaceweather.com]
 Quoting: dettro99


Thanks D, I've been patiently waiting for them to come out with this!rockon
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 24574382
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09/29/2012 06:13 AM
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Re: A BIG ONE ON THE WAY
just a small message from a lurker,

one day , your communication will be gone, thats for sure, you all agree to this much,

and by that time brothers and sisters, i hope you all have found peace within yourselves,

because thats all you will have,

God bless you all.
Anonymous Coward
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09/29/2012 09:16 AM
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Re: A BIG ONE ON THE WAY
Finally spaceweather.com says something about the Large CME heading our way.


INCOMING SOLAR STORM CLOUD: Magnetic fields around sunspot 1577 erupted on Sept. 28th, hurling a coronal mass ejection (CME) almost directly toward Earth. The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) recorded the cloud as it raced away from the sun faster than 2.2 million mph:

NOAA forecasters estimate a 50% chance of strong geomagnetic storms around the poles on Sept 30th when the cloud reaches Earth. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras, which might be intense enough to see in spite of the full moonlight


[link to www.spaceweather.com]
 Quoting: dettro99


THNXforTHEupdate;)
 Quoting: SnakeBite


To get a space without a spacebar
press ALT key and type 32 in your numeric pad
Earth Cries

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09/29/2012 10:38 AM

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Re: A BIG ONE ON THE WAY
Finally spaceweather.com says something about the Large CME heading our way.


INCOMING SOLAR STORM CLOUD: Magnetic fields around sunspot 1577 erupted on Sept. 28th, hurling a coronal mass ejection (CME) almost directly toward Earth. The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) recorded the cloud as it raced away from the sun faster than 2.2 million mph:

NOAA forecasters estimate a 50% chance of strong geomagnetic storms around the poles on Sept 30th when the cloud reaches Earth. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras, which might be intense enough to see in spite of the full moonlight


[link to www.spaceweather.com]
 Quoting: dettro99


THNXforTHEupdate;)
 Quoting: SnakeBite


To get a space without a spacebar
press ALT key and type 32 in your numeric pad
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1568805


Good tip and it works!
Thanks.
Mark 13:20 And except that the Lord had shortened those days, no flesh should be saved: but for the elect's sake, whom he hath chosen, he hath shortened the days.
c saw
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09/29/2012 11:34 AM
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Re: A BIG ONE ON THE WAY
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
DRAPhasBEENfluctuatingUPandDOWNforAlittleNOW.
 Quoting: SnakeBite


Thanks for the info,

I, too, once had a similar mishap with the keyboard...

Was my son, 10 at the time, bringing me a hot cup of coffee...as he sat it down on the table, he bumped the table and the coffee spilled on my laptop keyboard there at Starbucks...

He is 18 now and I use another laptop, but everytime I use the older one, I think of him...lovingly.

It was my very first laptop and only my second computer and as a single mom, we had to become quite ingenius to work around the keyboards disabilities....

Fond memories, those!

Snakebite, keep your way of typing, brings back fond memories!

Cheers to hot chocolate, loving son's and coffee at Starbucks!

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