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New Model to Predict Unemployment Sees Rate at 8.1%
User ID: 6418504
10/02/2012 11:47 PM
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[link to blogs.wsj.com]
The big monthly jobs report doesnít come out until Friday, but no need to wait until then to know Septemberís unemployment rate: 8.1%.
The projection itself, made last Friday, isnít particularly remarkable. An unemployment rate of 8.1% would represent no change from August, and is also the consensus forecast of economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires. Messrs. Barnichon and Nekarda also forecast a very gradual improvement in the months ahead: 8% in October and November, 7.9% in December, and an incremental drop to 7.1% over the course of the next year (although the authors caution in their paper that their projections become less accurate as they go further out in time).
Yay! More fake numbers!