Iran has to some estimates already passed Israels red line

But to make a long story short, Cochran and Paine estimate that a relatively low-tech bomb program would need between 8 and 16 kg of U-235 for a pure fission weapon (an “A-bomb”), depending on how much explosive yield is desired. A medium-tech program, which is perhaps where Iran fits thanks in part to the foreign assistance described in GOV/2011/65, would need between 4 and 9 kg of U-235.

As a reminder, Iran already has about 11 kg of U-235 in the almost-20% U-235 UF6 that’s sitting in storage, and about 20 kg of U-235 available if you throw in other material that could be turned back into UF6. What’s more, GOV/2012/37, the source of the UF6 numbers above, is already out of date. As Table 3 of the report shows, more UF6 enriched to almost 20% U-235 is accumulating rapidly.

[link to lewis.armscontrolwonk.com]




The bottom line is that Iran probably has enough material on hand today to support the breakout scenario that Israeli officials reportedly fear is coming within months.




Last Edited by Limpan on 10/03/2012 09:27 AM