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NEW Scientific Method of Analyzing Exit Poll Data to Detect Vote Miscounts - Independent Audits and Election Data Monitoring

 
Pollyannuh
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01/16/2006 09:41 PM
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NEW Scientific Method of Analyzing Exit Poll Data to Detect Vote Miscounts - Independent Audits and Election Data Monitoring
[link to electionarchive.org]

National Election Data Archive Project

Independent Audits and Election Data Monitoring would ensure that correctly elected candidates are sworn into office.

NEW Scientific Method of Analyzing Exit Poll Data to Detect Vote Miscounts.

A solid scientific analysis of Ohio's November 2004 exit poll data will be released soon using this new exit poll discrepancy analysis method. NEDA has derived a new function for seeing what pattern of discrepancy results when votes are miscounted, or voters complete exit polls at different rates. Ohio's exit poll results are consistent with outcome-altering vote miscounts. To sign up to receive an announcement as soon as the new Ohio analysis is released please email election-subscribe@uscountvotes.org and reply to the confirmation email.

To understand the academic evidence of vote miscounts in America, please read A History of the Academic Debate Surrounding the 2004 Presidential Election.

Please sign up to receive our email announcements and help us to ensure democratic elections.

Our goal is to make sure that vote counts accurately reflect voters' choices. A combination of routine independent audits and a National Election Data Archive, would detect virtually all vote count errors that might cause a wrong candidate to be sworn into office:

1. U.S. votes are most often counted electronically, without routine independent audits of accuracy! If every county independently audited its own vote counts, any errors that were distributed over 10% or more of precincts would be detected and corrected. Here are sample audit procedures in Connecticut and a good one proposed in Pennsylvania.

2. A public National Election Data Archive (NEDA) would enable us to detect probable vote count errors immediately following elections. With adequate funding we could build a national election data collection and public distribution system in time to safeguard the November 2006 elections! We need your help to collect detailed election results data.


Detailed election data would permit detection of errors that might be missed by independent audits. If detailed election data is made readily public, then any independent analyst will be able to identify precincts with probable vote count errors and alert us when recounts and investigations seem necessary. Election officials would have public help to monitor election integrity.

Monitoring election results for accuracy requires collecting election data from over 33,000 county and township election offices because no States yet collect the detailed data they need to monitor their own election results! Moreover, counties usually report election results today by first adding together votes that may be wrongly added for one candidate in one vote type with votes that may be wrongly subtracted for a different candidate in another vote type. - thus hiding both problems. (See this example.) This leaves the job to us and luckily we have the legal right to obtain the detailed election data needed to detect vote count errors, under every state's freedom of information act.

Our WISH LIST.


People are needed now to implement this data archive project. Staff will use high-speed servers to create and analyze a database of precinct-level, vote-type election results for the entire U.S. All data will be made public. With adequate funding, by November 2006 it we could be reliably warned of probable machine or human-caused vote count errors in time to recount the results and ensure that correctly elected candidates are always sworn into office.

Please sign up to receive our email announcements and help us to defend American democracy.

EXIT POLLS:

The discrepancies between election results and exit poll results in the 2004 presidential race have not been explained and are consistent with significant vote count errors. Examination of limited election data shows irregular patterns of vote counts in Florida, Ohio, Washington, New Mexico, and other states. We cannot know the full extent of problems until we collect and analyze the data.

On May 15th, our National Election Data Archive Project released a scientific paper, updated September 8th, that disproves the theory that the 2004 presidential exit poll discrepancies were caused by exit poll response rates that varied by party. This discredited hypothesis was proposed by the exit pollsters and used to dismiss the exit polls. This paper follows our earlier scientific paper released on March 31st, and summary on the 2004 election exit poll discrepancies.

It has been officially confirmed (by the exit pollsters themselves) that on election night the final set of exit polls showed John Kerry defeating George Bush by 3% of the popular vote and a clear majority of 316 electoral votes. Our statisticians analyzed Edison/Mitofsky's own explanation of their exit poll discrepancies, and found serious flaws in their argument. Exit polls have been used for years to detect corruption of official vote tallies - most recently in Ukraine.

PROBLEMS WITH VOTING SYSTEMS: U.S. voting systems have been lax for decades, because rarely are routine independent audits of vote count accuracy performed to detect or correct errors. More than 27,000 reports of irregularities in the 2004 election were submitted to the independent "Election Incident Reporting System"; New Mexico had the highest rate of under-votes in the November 2004 election. A General Accounting Office (GAO) investigation was undertaken into the security and accuracy of voting technologies, the distribution and allocation of voting machines, and counting of provisional ballots. The GAO recently reported that electronic voting systems have caused vote miscounts and recommended audits of vote count accuracy in every election, no matter what the margin.

A DO-ABLE SOLUTION: If we obtain the funding in time, we can use the 2004 election data to develop and test the new election monitoring system in time for the November 2006 election.

Please sign up to receive our email announcements and help us to defend American democracy.

Last Updated ( Monday, 16 January 2006 )


Read more... at link
Pollyannuh (OP)

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01/17/2006 09:16 AM
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Re: NEW Scientific Method of Analyzing Exit Poll Data to Detect Vote Miscounts - Independent Audits and Election Data Monitoring
What?

After all the weeping, wailing, and head banging over at least two elections gone bad there's no interest in a solution?

Hmmmmm....

This needs to be seen by more people.
ORBY

User ID: 59841
United Kingdom
01/17/2006 09:18 AM
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Re: NEW Scientific Method of Analyzing Exit Poll Data to Detect Vote Miscounts - Independent Audits and Election Data Monitoring
Wanna know why people dont care.

They assume the vote is a formality.

They know it will be rigged

Doesnt matter who is in power

The game doesnt change

only the players
For the lord is my shepherd
I shall not want
Pollyannuh (OP)

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01/17/2006 09:57 AM
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Re: NEW Scientific Method of Analyzing Exit Poll Data to Detect Vote Miscounts - Independent Audits and Election Data Monitoring
Orby, apathy should find no home at GLP of all places.

This organization is actually doing something to counter and expose voter fraud.

A program of this nature should have all of our support.
Anonymous Coward
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01/17/2006 10:02 AM
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Re: NEW Scientific Method of Analyzing Exit Poll Data to Detect Vote Miscounts - Independent Audits and Election Data Monitoring
Polly = Idiot

You are ASSuming that everyone that leaves a polling place tells the truth when asked who they voted for...

Did your parents have any children that lived?

koolaid
captain obvious
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01/17/2006 10:15 AM
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Re: NEW Scientific Method of Analyzing Exit Poll Data to Detect Vote Miscounts - Independent Audits and Election Data Monitoring
Taking the ownership and management of the vote counting machines out of the hands of the fascist corporations would be a great first step, but that would require an intelligent action on the part of congress, something that those mostly brain dead zombies do not seem capable of doing.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 62952
United States
01/17/2006 10:19 AM
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Re: NEW Scientific Method of Analyzing Exit Poll Data to Detect Vote Miscounts - Independent Audits and Election Data Monitoring
Ballots here are paper and counted by hand by locals...

What a novel concept...
captain obvious
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01/17/2006 10:19 AM
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Re: NEW Scientific Method of Analyzing Exit Poll Data to Detect Vote Miscounts - Independent Audits and Election Data Monitoring
62592, the exit polls are a hell of a lot mote accurate than the altered vote tally of the corporation controlled voting machines.
captain obvious
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01/17/2006 10:21 AM
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Re: NEW Scientific Method of Analyzing Exit Poll Data to Detect Vote Miscounts - Independent Audits and Election Data Monitoring
62952...
locomotion

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01/17/2006 12:37 PM
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Re: NEW Scientific Method of Analyzing Exit Poll Data to Detect Vote Miscounts - Independent Audits and Election Data Monitoring
Doesnt matter who is in power

The game doesnt change

only the players>>>

It is the only game in town right now.

Our apathy has earned us the govt we currently chafe under.

Personally I've never found apathy to be a viable solution to anything.

I've voted in nearly every election I've been eligible to vote in, often holding my nose as I picked and chose between the lesser of two evils. Many times I've written in my own name if the only 'choices' on the ballot had a D or R after their name. There are usually alternative candidates. How long will these alternative candidates continue to run if they receive not even a token vote of support?

If you don't like the game, work to change it (and the right changes to the players DOES change the game). Picking up your marbles and running home in a snit doesn't change the game, or anything else once you're gone. It just puts distance between your ears and the derisive laughter of the power players who remain.

Thanks for the information about this important effort Polly! ;)
If we do not hang together, we shall surely hang separately. ~Thomas Paine

I've been dead before. ~Spock, The Unknown Country (PEACE)
Anonymous Coward
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01/17/2006 12:40 PM
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Re: NEW Scientific Method of Analyzing Exit Poll Data to Detect Vote Miscounts - Independent Audits and Election Data Monitoring
if the data analysis is so accurate, why bother with an actual vote .... just take the poll and appoint the winner. faster & cheaper.

of course there is that "DEWEY WINS" headline to serve as a warning about accuracy in polling ..... but who cares.
Monty

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Canada
01/17/2006 12:43 PM
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Re: NEW Scientific Method of Analyzing Exit Poll Data to Detect Vote Miscounts - Independent Audits and Election Data Monitoring
The neocons want all exit polling banned in order to ensure that electronic polling can steal elections without any of that pesky business of people noticing.
FreshLaundry

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01/17/2006 01:16 PM
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Re: NEW Scientific Method of Analyzing Exit Poll Data to Detect Vote Miscounts - Independent Audits and Election Data Monitoring
Jeebus,

You guys and your "both parties are the same" script... you are falling into the hands of the NWO more than the rest of us. If you don't vote at all or throw your vote away on a 3rd party it makes it much easier for them.

8 years of Clinton:
peace
economic boom
budget surplus
higher employment
welfare to work program
respect from the world
strong military
vigilant against terrorist attacks
environmental protections
less disparity between the rich and the poor
free blow jobs


6 years of Bush:
an endless war
everyone in the world hates us
huge deficit never before seen
negligent on protecting us from the biggest terrorist attack to hit the united states
negligent on helping New Orleans
spoiling the environment - note: "clean air" act, "healthy forest initiative", etc.
destroying our freedoms
spying on americans
corruption rampant
destroying the school system ("every child left behind")
HUGE divide between the rich and the poor
muzzling the press
destroying the balance of the executive, judicial, and legislative branches
pissing on the constitution
cowing America with fear
lies in order to get us to go to war with a country that didn't attack us
pre-emptively attacks another country for the first time in our history!
destroys the moral authority of the united states
reinstates torture
military spread thin
veterans benefits reduced
social programs reduced
mine safety regulations pulled back
tries to assassinate the president of venezuela illegally
relies on bad intelligence from Chalabi, a known liar
imprisons people without due process or access to a lawyer - does not even require that anyone be told that they are imprisoned
loads the courts with lifetime appointment pro-government, pro-corporation, pro-executive, judges
forces telecom companies to grant them access to phone records and backdoor phone taps
... and on and on and on....



that's hardly the same.
This post pending review.
[link to kindagamey.com]
locomotion nli
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01/17/2006 01:45 PM
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Re: NEW Scientific Method of Analyzing Exit Poll Data to Detect Vote Miscounts - Independent Audits and Election Data Monitoring
Where the rubber meets the road...

How Your Lawmakers Voted

For week ending October 26, 2001

Terrorism Bill: (House) Members passed 357-66, a bill expanding police powers to conduct surveillance on and apprehend assumed terrorists and other criminal suspects. A yes vote backed a bill that also addresses detention of aliens and money laundering.

Terrorism Bill: Senators voted 98-1, to send the White House a measure giving law enforcement and intelligence agencies new tools for detecting and preventing terrorist attacks. A yes vote backed a bill seen by critics as a dangerous assault on civil liberties. (HR3162)
locomotion nli
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01/17/2006 01:52 PM
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Re: NEW Scientific Method of Analyzing Exit Poll Data to Detect Vote Miscounts - Independent Audits and Election Data Monitoring
How Your Lawmakers Voted

For the week ending November 22, 2002

Homeland Security: Voting 90-9, senators approved the conference report on a bill to establish the Department of Homeland Security, a 170,000-employee agency that is the largest reorganization of the federal government since 1947. A yes vote was to approve HR 5005.

Insurance Bailout: Senators OK'd, 86-11, the conference report on a bill providing taxpayer help to insurance firms for the costs of a terrorist attack. Taxpayers would cover 90% of losses between $10 billion and $100 billion. A yes vote was to send HR 3210 to President Bush.
locomotion nli
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01/17/2006 02:00 PM
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Re: NEW Scientific Method of Analyzing Exit Poll Data to Detect Vote Miscounts - Independent Audits and Election Data Monitoring
You make valid points Fresh Laundry, and I will admit that ON THE SURFACE, dems are more attractive to me than repubs. However, I am convinced that the only real hope left for a truly representational govt is a viable third-party, to give the entrenched powers a run for their (dirty) money. And I never feel that I'm throwing my vote away when I vote for the third-party candidate. The only way I would be throwing my vote away, is not to vote at all.

peace
Anonymous Coward
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01/17/2006 02:04 PM
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Re: NEW Scientific Method of Analyzing Exit Poll Data to Detect Vote Miscounts - Independent Audits and Election Data Monitoring
I've been polled at an Exit Poll - why in the heck would I or anybody else lie about who they voted for? Negates the whole point of voting doesn't it?

They poll every 5th person coming out of the voting places. It worked until 2000 & 2004...
Anonymous Coward
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01/17/2006 02:13 PM
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Re: NEW Scientific Method of Analyzing Exit Poll Data to Detect Vote Miscounts - Independent Audits and Election Data Monitoring
I am considering removing myself from the voting rolls. I do vote, but realized that voting is simply a way for the gov't to get free slave labor for their various depts. of Mis-Justice...aka Jurors. Where I live, they don't pay you anything for Jury Duty until after a week, and then it's a paltry sum. Everyone in that damn court room gets paid big bucks, and jurors get nothing. they are subject to being tampered with and serving jail time if they do, they are subject to jail and fines for contempt of court- they are told how to vote by the judge by his Instructions, they are sent back to endless deliberations for days and weeks if they try and vote their belief (i.e. Not guilty), they are not allowed to hear about their constitutional right to vote Not Guilty if they believe the law is unjust or does not apply in the case (negation).
The real reason we get only about half of the eligible voters to vote is that the voting rolls are used to coerce people into Jury Duty. Some people do not want to participate in this fraud system. Now, with electronic voting becoming the standard- why bother at all. There is no paper trail, and we have been fucked at least twice in presidential elections.
Polly's concept here is sound- but did you notice ever since Bush was elected they are moving away from even using exit polling- since they DO point up the fraud that Bushco is using?
Pensacola
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01/17/2006 02:14 PM
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Re: NEW Scientific Method of Analyzing Exit Poll Data to Detect Vote Miscounts - Independent Audits and Election Data Monitoring
What makes anyone think that exit poles are accurate? I sure would not tell them for whom I voted, I would tell them the person for whom I didn't vote just to mess up their predictions on who won. I know of others who have said the same. Many people are tired of the networks telling them who won before the people have voted and therefore give phoney answers. If they get it wrong often enough people will ignore the networks and go vote anyway.
Anonymous Coward
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01/17/2006 02:31 PM
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Re: NEW Scientific Method of Analyzing Exit Poll Data to Detect Vote Miscounts - Independent Audits and Election Data Monitoring
Fresh Laundry:

8 years of Clinton:
peace - remember somalia and yugoslavia
economic boom - that would be the DotCom bubble
budget surplus - taxes on the illusory profits from the dotcom bubble
higher employment - actually, the recession started in Bill's last term. even so,today, employment is higher than it was in Bill's term ... you can look it up
welfare to work program - Bill dragged kicking and screaming to this one
respect from the world - really?
strong military - under Clinton the US military lost 20% to 30% of its combat strength ... you can look it up. remember the peace dividend
vigilant against terrorist attacks - really ... the embassy bombings and the USS COle!!!! ... the Planning of 9/11
environmental protections - environment is still protected today and getting cleaner as we speak
less disparity between the rich and the poor - a senseless statistic. would it be a good thing if everyone was poor?
free blow jobs - all right ... got me there
Anonymous Coward
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01/17/2006 02:32 PM
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Re: NEW Scientific Method of Analyzing Exit Poll Data to Detect Vote Miscounts - Independent Audits and Election Data Monitoring
I think we should employ intelligent design when evaluating exit poll data.
sophia
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New Zealand
01/17/2006 02:33 PM
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Re: NEW Scientific Method of Analyzing Exit Poll Data to Detect Vote Miscounts - Independent Audits and Election Data Monitoring
has it been established that the only exit polls which DID NOT tally with actual results were in booths/areas with electronic voting and NO paper trail?
Anonymous Coward
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01/17/2006 02:41 PM
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Re: NEW Scientific Method of Analyzing Exit Poll Data to Detect Vote Miscounts - Independent Audits and Election Data Monitoring
non verifiable elections could not be considered "free elections"
Anonymous Coward
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01/17/2006 02:43 PM
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Re: NEW Scientific Method of Analyzing Exit Poll Data to Detect Vote Miscounts - Independent Audits and Election Data Monitoring
not sure if any election that is 100% verifiable is consistent with the notion of a "secret ballot"
Pollyannuh (OP)

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01/17/2006 02:57 PM
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Re: NEW Scientific Method of Analyzing Exit Poll Data to Detect Vote Miscounts - Independent Audits and Election Data Monitoring
Since we are talking about voting, and exit polls were debated, I thought I'd share this with you.

Twice during the 1990's my precint was singled out for exit polling. Once by ABC and the other was CNN, I believe.

The band of pollsters spoke with each and every voter exiting at both elections.

Comparing the outcome of the election in my precint with the pollsters several days later, we found BOTH times an accuracy of 99%.

That figure is proof that exit polling is an accurate tool, otherwise the media would better spend their time elsewhere and doing other things instead of sending a group of people to stand outside a polling place for 12 hours.
Anonymous Coward
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01/17/2006 10:59 PM
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Re: NEW Scientific Method of Analyzing Exit Poll Data to Detect Vote Miscounts - Independent Audits and Election Data Monitoring
fighter1
Anonymous Coward
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01/18/2006 10:19 AM
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Re: NEW Scientific Method of Analyzing Exit Poll Data to Detect Vote Miscounts - Independent Audits and Election Data Monitoring
One man, one vote

If they can corrupt the voting at the poll, all is lost

This is as good a place to start as any
Anonymous Coward
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01/18/2006 10:27 AM
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Re: NEW Scientific Method of Analyzing Exit Poll Data to Detect Vote Miscounts - Independent Audits and Election Data Monitoring
I was exit polled in Pennsylvania this past election.

I lied to the pollster. It wasn't her effing business who I voted for.
Pollyannuh (OP)

User ID: 46877
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01/18/2006 10:38 AM
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Re: NEW Scientific Method of Analyzing Exit Poll Data to Detect Vote Miscounts - Independent Audits and Election Data Monitoring
A.C. 4700, what difference does it make if you tell the pollster the truth?

It's not like they are taking money out of your pocket or harming your family in any way.

I just don't see the sense or logic in lying over this issue.
Anonymous Coward
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01/18/2006 10:53 AM
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Re: NEW Scientific Method of Analyzing Exit Poll Data to Detect Vote Miscounts - Independent Audits and Election Data Monitoring
I lied also 4700...

I love how it is still bugging Polly too...

Any poll is still a 'poll'...They all have margins of error and many have error margins in the double digits...

Anyone that tells you differently is blowing smoke up your ass for their own reasons...

Anyone that puts faith in a 'poll' is any idiot...They are also usually from the left, as they seem obsessed with public opinion...
Pollyannuh (OP)

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01/18/2006 10:58 AM
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Re: NEW Scientific Method of Analyzing Exit Poll Data to Detect Vote Miscounts - Independent Audits and Election Data Monitoring
A.C. 62952, who said anything about the act of lying bugging me?

Now, we've established the fact that there are at least two liars at GLP.

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