BREAKING REPORT: Iran Can Achieve Enough Weapons-Grade Uranium to Make Nuke Bomb in 2 Months!! Airlines Suspending Flights to Iran

IRAN’S EVOLVING BREAKOUT POTENTIAL

William C. Witt, Christina Walrond, David Albright, and Houston Wood
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[link to isis-online.org]


EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

If Iran decided to build nuclear weapons, it could use its existing safeguarded nuclear facilities
and nuclear materials to produce weapon-grade uranium (WGU, uranium enriched to 90 percent
U-235). This report evaluates scenarios, commonly called “breakout” or “dash” scenarios, by
which Iran could produce enough WGU for one or more nuclear weapons. The authors use one
significant quantity (SQ), defined as 25 kilograms of WGU, to represent the amount of WGU
needed for a nuclear weapon.
The report estimates minimum breakout times given Iran’s capabilities as of the August 2012
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Safeguards Report on Iran and given its expected
future capabilities when it may have a much larger stock of near 20 percent low enriched
uranium (LEU). The authors utilize computer simulations which model Iran’s enrichment
infrastructure, accounting for performance limitations specific to its first generation IR-1
centrifuges and their arrangement into cascades. The breakout scenarios involve the Natanz Fuel
Enrichment Plant and the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, Iran’s two production-scale declared
gas centrifuge plants.

Current Breakout Potential

Based on the size of Iran’s LEU stockpiles as of August 2012, ISIS estimates that Iran would
require at least two months in the fastest case to dash to one significant quantity of WGU.

The estimate is at least 2.3-4.1 months if Iran’s stock of near 20 percent LEU hexafluoride is taken as
91 kg, and at least 2.0-2.5 months if this stock is 25 kg greater. These estimates assume a
breakout at the Natanz FEP. In an earlier ISIS calculation from the first part of 2012, the
breakout estimate at Natanz was four months.

The shorter estimate given in this report reflects
Iran’s improved cascade operations and its additional stored LEU, particularly its near 20 percent LEU hexafluoride

Last Edited by DoorBert on 10/08/2012 01:35 PM