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Mitt Romney will lose the Presidential Election. With Stats.

 
Anonymous Coward
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10/17/2012 04:22 PM
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Mitt Romney will lose the Presidential Election. With Stats.
Here is why Mitt Romney will lose the presidential election on Nov. 6th. The precise reason will be that Gov. Romney, does not have a legitimate electoral path to victory. Now, here is why.

Ohio- To succeed in winning the election. Gov. Romney must pull of the trifecta of the big swing states. Those being Fla., Va., and OH. To lose even one of these states is the end of Romney's hopes of becoming president. While Romney has improved his standing and now leads in polling of Fla, and Va. His momentum has not translated into a polling lead in the state of Ohio. Even Rasmussen, who has the most republican friendly polling model, shows the President with a modest +1 lead. While a recent PPP poll of Ohio, a democrat friendly polling company, shows Obama with a +5 advantage. The most frightening statistic for republicans coming from that poll being that 19% who responded. Indicated that they had already voted. With the President garnering 76% of those votes already cast. Gov. Romney led in that poll with those who said that they were planning on voting on election day by a margin of 51%-45%. So I decided that I would extrapolate these polls to try and decide the outcome of the election.

So I went back and checked the vote totals from the 2004 and 2008 presidential elections in Ohio. I found that in 2008 there were 5,721,374 ballots cast in Ohio, and that represented a turn out of 67%. While in 2004, a big year for republicans, there were about 5,625,000 ballots cast and that represented 65% turn out( [link to en.wikipedia.org] So I took both positions. The common conservative cry that turn out will be more like 2004 this year, and also the common polling formula for turn out expectation, 65% and 67% respectively. Lets start with the PPP, poll.

[link to www.publicpolicypolling.com]


This is the poll that shows Obama with a +5 advantage over Romney in Ohio. Even though the poll says that with people planning on voting on election day. Romney leads by a six point margin 51%-45%. The problem is that 19% of those surveyed indicated that they had already voted. With the president enjoying a healthy 76%-24%, advantage. Using the 65% model we get about 5,700,000 expected total voters in Ohio. If 19%, of those have already voted. That represents 1,083,000 votes, and 76% of that is 823,080. The remaining 24% would be a total of 259,920 votes. Giving the president a massive advantage. However, Gov. Romney led with election day voters 51-45%. The remaining pool of voters is now 4,617,000, as we remove the early voters. Gov. Romney garner 51% of this pool, which represents 2,354,670 votes. While Obama's 45% gives him a total of 2,077,650 votes. Making the final tally including early voting-

Obama-2,900,730
Romney-2,614,590

This represents a 5% victory for President Obama. Quite similar to his defeat of John McCain in Ohio in 2008.

Now for the Rasmussen poll of Ohio. Which shows the president showing only a +1 lead 48-47 over Gov. Romney. Again using the 65% model for turnout that is popular with conservatives. Gives us roughly 5,700,000 voters in Ohio this year. Giving Obama his 48%, makes his total 2,736,000. Gov. Romney's 47% garners him 2,679,000. With 3% undecided,(174,000 votes), and 2%,(114,000) favoring another candidate. Lets assume that everything falls Romney's way and a full 2/3, of this undecided pool of 174,000 vote for him. That accounts for 112,860 votes, and 58,140 for the President. Making the final tally for the Rasmussen poll:

Obama-2,794,140
Romney-2,791,860

So therefore, giving Romney his dream situation. Having the Rasmussen polling model, having a 2004 turn out year, and having undecided voters break by a 2-1 margin in his favor doesnt win Romney Ohio. Obama takes Ohio by a razor thin margin, and thats giving Romney everything he would dream of going right for him in Ohio on election day.

In conclusion, Romney is dead in the water without Ohio. So all the wishful thinking in the world isnt gonna change that. Feel free to dispute my numbers with those of your own, but be serious about it. Also, many might say that there is a path to victory for Romney without Ohio. This is technically correct. But I will be back later with an update on Nevada using the same formula. Showing how Romney is very unlikely to win this election.

[link to www.270towin.com]


sources:

[link to www.publicpolicypolling.com]

[link to www.rasmussenreports.com]

[link to en.wikipedia.org]

[link to en.wikipedia.org]
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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10/17/2012 04:23 PM
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Re: Mitt Romney will lose the Presidential Election. With Stats.
UPDATE ON PAGE 3!!!!!!
Anonymous Coward
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10/17/2012 04:25 PM
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Re: Mitt Romney will lose the Presidential Election. With Stats.
Why even vote if Electoral College decides who's the president?

This whole thing a joke. That's why I never voted and never will. People who vote are gullible slaves to the system thinking they somehow matter and elect somebody. No, you don't, you vote because your just a sheep that the system wants you to be.
Anonymous Coward
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10/17/2012 04:26 PM
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Re: Mitt Romney will lose the Presidential Election. With Stats.
People ask why there is only a TWO Parties, Demo and Repu, simple, less is easier to control.
Anonymous Coward
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10/17/2012 04:29 PM
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Re: Mitt Romney will lose the Presidential Election. With Stats.
sorry hony, your numbers do not add up

[link to quickfacts.census.gov]

The percentages those on welfare by race as of 2011 are listed below in descending order by percentage.
Black-39.8%
White-38.8%
Hispanic-15.7%
Other-3.3%
Asian-2.4%
With 47 million on food stamps lets do the math...

US Population 320 million
White 208 million
Black 38 million

hence 45% of total black population is on assistance
versus 8.6% of the white population.

"The nine most terrifying words in the English language are: 'I'm from the government and I'm here to help.'" By: Ronald Regan

Most non-black people want to fend for themselves. We don't want your hand out nor do we want your hand in our pocket.

Time to put out the trash..

We hired you Obama because you are black, we will fire you because you SUCK
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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10/18/2012 09:05 AM
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Re: Mitt Romney will lose the Presidential Election. With Stats.
sorry hony, your numbers do not add up

[link to quickfacts.census.gov]

The percentages those on welfare by race as of 2011 are listed below in descending order by percentage.
Black-39.8%
White-38.8%
Hispanic-15.7%
Other-3.3%
Asian-2.4%
With 47 million on food stamps lets do the math...

US Population 320 million
White 208 million
Black 38 million

hence 45% of total black population is on assistance
versus 8.6% of the white population.

"The nine most terrifying words in the English language are: 'I'm from the government and I'm here to help.'" By: Ronald Regan

Most non-black people want to fend for themselves. We don't want your hand out nor do we want your hand in our pocket.

Time to put out the trash..

We hired you Obama because you are black, we will fire you because you SUCK
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1243271


Thats pretty funny. So you think all white voters are gonna vote for Romney? In fact, the PPP poll I referenced shows Romney ahead with all white voters 50%-47%, in the state of Ohio. While Obama garners 86% of the African-American vote. So it is your numbers that dont quite add up. Not all white voters are as overtly racist as you.
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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10/18/2012 09:21 AM
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Re: Mitt Romney will lose the Presidential Election. With Stats.
Romney can win without Ohio.

So long as he wins FL, VA, NC, IA, NV, CO.

FL, VA, NC look strong. CO is pretty strong.

IA is very close.

NV is close, but traditionally Republican, and I think Democrat Shelley Berkley in the senate race here is in trouble.

So there is a path to victory without OH.

If Romney manages to somehow win WI instead of NV or IA, then he wins.
 Quoting: Super Bowl Dave


Realistically he isnt going to win WI.The RealClearPolitics average gives Obama a +2.2% advantage. A +2.3% lead in IA, and a narrow lead in NH. But im glad you brought up the point on Nevada.
Anonymous Coward
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10/18/2012 09:24 AM
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Re: Mitt Romney will lose the Presidential Election. With Stats.
Go away you dumb fucking obama campaign tards we dont even read what you post....
Anonymous Coward
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10/18/2012 09:24 AM
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Re: Mitt Romney will lose the Presidential Election. With Stats.
we will not allow him to get away with steeling the election
AlcoholicRunner
I abduct humans and drink at the same time.

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10/18/2012 09:45 AM

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Re: Mitt Romney will lose the Presidential Election. With Stats.
[link to www.breitbart.com]

Romney wins big.
Anonymous Coward
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10/18/2012 09:47 AM
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Re: Mitt Romney will lose the Presidential Election. With Stats.
Why even vote if Electoral College decides who's the president?

This whole thing a joke. That's why I never voted and never will. People who vote are gullible slaves to the system thinking they somehow matter and elect somebody. No, you don't, you vote because your just a sheep that the system wants you to be.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 24124662


this^^^
AlcoholicRunner
I abduct humans and drink at the same time.

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10/18/2012 09:53 AM

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Re: Mitt Romney will lose the Presidential Election. With Stats.
Why even vote if Electoral College decides who's the president?

This whole thing a joke. That's why I never voted and never will. People who vote are gullible slaves to the system thinking they somehow matter and elect somebody. No, you don't, you vote because your just a sheep that the system wants you to be.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 24124662


this^^^
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 14948243


sbus
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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10/18/2012 09:58 AM
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Re: Mitt Romney will lose the Presidential Election. With Stats.
Previously I showed how Romney is going to have a tough time winning the election without winning Ohio. I also showed how winning Ohio has likely become a difficult task for Gov. Romney. Now we will examine Nevada.

Nevada-

Nevada is a strange state historically. Voted for Clinton twice, then Bush twice, and then for Obama in 2008. The thing that has really changed in Nevada is demographics. An exploding Hispanic population, has changed the political landscape of Nevada. Which for much of its history has long been a republican strong hold. This explains the dramatic shift to Obama in 2008, where he won the state by a massive 12.5% margin. Turnout for that election was 967,848 voters, or about 50% turnout( [link to en.wikipedia.org] In 2004, turnout was 829,597 voters. Which also represented about 50% turnout( [link to en.wikipedia.org] So I went to the Nevada Sec. of State website and found the number of current registered voters in Nevada. Which turned out to be 2,035,543 registered voters as of 2012( [link to www.nvsos.gov] Then using the 50% turnout model which has been consistent in the last two cycles I found that there will likely be about, 1,017,771 total votes cast in Nevada this year. Using the most recent Rasmussen poll of Nevada, which I think we all will agree would be the most generous polling model for conservatives, extrapolated the final vote totals for Nevada.

[link to www.rasmussenreports.com]


In this Rasmussen poll, the president leads Gov. Romney 50%-47% among likely voters. Giving the president 50% gives him 508,885 votes. While Romney's 47% leaves him with 478,352 votes. With 1%(10,178) undecided, and 2%(20,355) preferring some other candidate. Obviously since the president has already reached 50%, even if we give Romney 100% of the undecided vote, he would still come up short. Making the final tally

Obama-508,885
Romney-488,530
Third Party-20,355

A two percent win for the president. Using the most friendly republican model, and giving Gov. Romney 100% of the undecided vote.

[link to www.270towin.com]

As this map now shows. The president has eclipsed the 270 vote majority needed to win the electoral college. Again, using the most friendly republican polling model.

Sources-

[link to www.rasmussenreports.com]


[link to en.wikipedia.org]


[link to en.wikipedia.org]


[link to www.nvsos.gov]
Anonymous Coward
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10/18/2012 09:58 AM
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Re: Mitt Romney will lose the Presidential Election. With Stats.
Why even vote if Electoral College decides who's the president?

This whole thing a joke. That's why I never voted and never will. People who vote are gullible slaves to the system thinking they somehow matter and elect somebody. No, you don't, you vote because your just a sheep that the system wants you to be.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 24124662


this^^^
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 14948243


sbus
 Quoting: AlcoholicRunner


So what you are saying is that our vote counts and is not really nothing more than a popular vote when the Electoral College is the entity that selects as well as elects the next president?

I think that short bus is for you. All aboard........
ceawaves

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10/18/2012 09:59 AM

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Re: Mitt Romney will lose the Presidential Election. With Stats.
we will not allow him to get away with steeling the election
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 21132755


Not this time.. enough is enough.
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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10/18/2012 10:06 AM
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Re: Mitt Romney will lose the Presidential Election. With Stats.
Romney may also win the popular vote but still lose.
 Quoting: Super Bowl Dave


I agree that Romney may win the popular vote. But at this point my final map would look like this, given past experience. But Iowa may flip as well. Still, it doesnt give Romney enough electoral college votes to win.

[link to www.270towin.com]
Anonymous Coward
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10/18/2012 10:11 AM
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Re: Mitt Romney will lose the Presidential Election. With Stats.
Romney may also win the popular vote but still lose.
 Quoting: Super Bowl Dave


I agree that Romney may win the popular vote. But at this point my final map would look like this, given past past experience.

[link to www.270towin.com]
 Quoting: Frangas non Flectes


When it comes to the Electoral College, Romney may lose the popular vote and still win the election.

No one really knows at this point what is going to be the outcome.

It's all got to do with money and power as well as keeping the promises made behind the curtains.
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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10/18/2012 10:13 AM
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Re: Mitt Romney will lose the Presidential Election. With Stats.
[link to www.breitbart.com]

Romney wins big.
 Quoting: AlcoholicRunner


The electoral college decides the outcome, not the popular vote. If Romney cant win WI, OH, and NV. He cant win the election. Regardless of what the popular vote outcome happens to be. For example, Romney may win by a huge margin in the red states, cut his deficit in the Blue states to 5% instead of 10%. But still lose the state and only rack up a lead in the popular vote. While Obama wins the states he needs to and gets to 270. After all, that is the name of the game.
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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10/18/2012 10:29 AM
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Re: Mitt Romney will lose the Presidential Election. With Stats.
bump
Anonymous Coward
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10/18/2012 10:35 AM
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Re: Mitt Romney will lose the Presidential Election. With Stats.
October 4, 2012

An update to an election forecasting model announced by two University of Colorado professors in August continues to project that Mitt Romney will win the 2012 presidential election.

According to their updated analysis, Romney is projected to receive 330 of the total 538 Electoral College votes. President Barack Obama is expected to receive 208 votes -- down five votes from their initial prediction -- and short of the 270 needed to win.

The new forecast by political science professors Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder and Michael Berry of CU Denver is based on more recent economic data than their original Aug. 22 prediction. The model itself did not change.

“We continue to show that the economic conditions favor Romney even though many polls show the president in the lead,” Bickers said. “Other published models point to the same result, but they looked at the national popular vote, while we stress state-level economic data.”

[link to www.colorado.edu]


tounge
Anonymous Coward
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10/18/2012 10:37 AM
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Re: Mitt Romney will lose the Presidential Election. With Stats.
we will not allow him to get away with stealing the election
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 21132755


Not this time.. enough is enough.
 Quoting: ceawaves


The Republicans just hired 8500 Pollsters to do exit polling in places where the dems are removing them... This is going to get interesting...
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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10/18/2012 10:37 AM
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Re: Mitt Romney will lose the Presidential Election. With Stats.
Why even vote if Electoral College decides who's the president?

This whole thing a joke. That's why I never voted and never will. People who vote are gullible slaves to the system thinking they somehow matter and elect somebody. No, you don't, you vote because your just a sheep that the system wants you to be.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 24124662


this^^^
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 14948243


sbus
 Quoting: AlcoholicRunner


So what you are saying is that our vote counts and is not really nothing more than a popular vote when the Electoral College is the entity that selects as well as elects the next president?

I think that short bus is for you. All aboard........
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 14948243


You lack fundamental understanding of the process. When a candidate wins a state, the party that wins selects the electors to represent that state in the electoral college. Every state but two,(NE and ME), have a winner take all system. Where by the popular vote winner, receives all of that states delegates to the electoral college. The other two states, NE and ME, alot their delegates by individual congressional district. But the popular vote winner of that district, wins the delegate. The Electoral College isnt some sinister shadowy force. In modern terms, it is merely a formality.
Anonymous Coward
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10/18/2012 10:40 AM
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Re: Mitt Romney will lose the Presidential Election. With Stats.
October 4, 2012

An update to an election forecasting model announced by two University of Colorado professors in August continues to project that Mitt Romney will win the 2012 presidential election.

According to their updated analysis, Romney is projected to receive 330 of the total 538 Electoral College votes. President Barack Obama is expected to receive 208 votes -- down five votes from their initial prediction -- and short of the 270 needed to win.

The new forecast by political science professors Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder and Michael Berry of CU Denver is based on more recent economic data than their original Aug. 22 prediction. The model itself did not change.

“We continue to show that the economic conditions favor Romney even though many polls show the president in the lead,” Bickers said. “Other published models point to the same result, but they looked at the national popular vote, while we stress state-level economic data.”

[link to www.colorado.edu]


tounge
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 893880


You do realize that if Mit wins, we would have to buy a whole lot of marshmallows and hotdogs to cook due to all the fires across this nation?
Anonymous Coward
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10/18/2012 10:40 AM
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...


this^^^
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 14948243


sbus
 Quoting: AlcoholicRunner


So what you are saying is that our vote counts and is not really nothing more than a popular vote when the Electoral College is the entity that selects as well as elects the next president?

I think that short bus is for you. All aboard........
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 14948243


You lack fundamental understanding of the process. When a candidate wins a state, the party that wins selects the electors to represent that state in the electoral college. Every state but two,(NE and ME), have a winner take all system. Where by the popular vote winner, receives all of that states delegates to the electoral college. The other two states, NE and ME, alot their delegates by individual congressional district. But the popular vote winner of that district, wins the delegate. The Electoral College isnt some sinister shadowy force. In modern terms, it is merely a formality.
 Quoting: Frangas non Flectes

He is still going to loose, Your polling models dont wash
AlcoholicRunner
I abduct humans and drink at the same time.

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10/18/2012 10:41 AM

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Re: Mitt Romney will lose the Presidential Election. With Stats.
[link to www.breitbart.com]

Romney wins big.
 Quoting: AlcoholicRunner


The electoral college decides the outcome, not the popular vote. If Romney cant win WI, OH, and NV. He cant win the election. Regardless of what the popular vote outcome happens to be. For example, Romney may win by a huge margin in the red states, cut his deficit in the Blue states to 5% instead of 10%. But still lose the state and only rack up a lead in the popular vote. While Obama wins the states he needs to and gets to 270. After all, that is the name of the game.
 Quoting: Frangas non Flectes


[link to www.breitbart.com]

Keep dreaming.

Romney will win.
Anonymous Coward
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10/18/2012 10:42 AM
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Re: Mitt Romney will lose the Presidential Election. With Stats.
October 4, 2012

An update to an election forecasting model announced by two University of Colorado professors in August continues to project that Mitt Romney will win the 2012 presidential election.

According to their updated analysis, Romney is projected to receive 330 of the total 538 Electoral College votes. President Barack Obama is expected to receive 208 votes -- down five votes from their initial prediction -- and short of the 270 needed to win.

The new forecast by political science professors Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder and Michael Berry of CU Denver is based on more recent economic data than their original Aug. 22 prediction. The model itself did not change.

“We continue to show that the economic conditions favor Romney even though many polls show the president in the lead,” Bickers said. “Other published models point to the same result, but they looked at the national popular vote, while we stress state-level economic data.”

[link to www.colorado.edu]


tounge
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 893880


You do realize that if Mit wins, we would have to buy a whole lot of marshmallows and hotdogs to cook due to all the fires across this nation?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 14948243


Your fear tactics won't save you from defeat.
Anonymous Coward
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10/18/2012 10:43 AM
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...


this^^^
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 14948243


sbus
 Quoting: AlcoholicRunner


So what you are saying is that our vote counts and is not really nothing more than a popular vote when the Electoral College is the entity that selects as well as elects the next president?

I think that short bus is for you. All aboard........
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 14948243


You lack fundamental understanding of the process. When a candidate wins a state, the party that wins selects the electors to represent that state in the electoral college. Every state but two,(NE and ME), have a winner take all system. Where by the popular vote winner, receives all of that states delegates to the electoral college. The other two states, NE and ME, alot their delegates by individual congressional district. But the popular vote winner of that district, wins the delegate. The Electoral College isnt some sinister shadowy force. In modern terms, it is merely a formality.
 Quoting: Frangas non Flectes

In the pass a candidate has won the popular vote across the board and still lost the race. You know this do you not?
Anonymous Coward
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10/18/2012 10:43 AM
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Re: Mitt Romney will lose the Presidential Election. With Stats.
Its funny how the democrats are trying to prove on paper that statistically obama is going to win, they are telegraphing that they are going to try to unlawfully steal the election... then say they have the stats to prove it...


People if you cannot see this is a blatant, and outright telegraphing of what they are about to attempt you better get out your shotguns and get ready to party
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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10/18/2012 10:44 AM
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Re: Mitt Romney will lose the Presidential Election. With Stats.
October 4, 2012

An update to an election forecasting model announced by two University of Colorado professors in August continues to project that Mitt Romney will win the 2012 presidential election.

According to their updated analysis, Romney is projected to receive 330 of the total 538 Electoral College votes. President Barack Obama is expected to receive 208 votes -- down five votes from their initial prediction -- and short of the 270 needed to win.

The new forecast by political science professors Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder and Michael Berry of CU Denver is based on more recent economic data than their original Aug. 22 prediction. The model itself did not change.

“We continue to show that the economic conditions favor Romney even though many polls show the president in the lead,” Bickers said. “Other published models point to the same result, but they looked at the national popular vote, while we stress state-level economic data.”

[link to www.colorado.edu]


tounge
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 893880


Yes I have seen their model. Any model that disregards the political realities of a time period, in favor of arbitrary economic numbers alone. I simply can not trust. I also use economic data in my models as well. Mostly I stick with unemployment. Which would indicate that the president should win Va and Oh, given the low unemployment in those states. Iowa and Colorado should also fit nicely in that category. Since unemployment is high in Nevada, I guess I should disregard demographics and all polling data, and just throw NV into Romneys tally? I have respect for the historical accuracy of their model, however there are many more models that are more sensitive to the political realities of the time.
Anonymous Coward
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10/18/2012 10:45 AM
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Re: Mitt Romney will lose the Presidential Election. With Stats.
October 4, 2012

An update to an election forecasting model announced by two University of Colorado professors in August continues to project that Mitt Romney will win the 2012 presidential election.

According to their updated analysis, Romney is projected to receive 330 of the total 538 Electoral College votes. President Barack Obama is expected to receive 208 votes -- down five votes from their initial prediction -- and short of the 270 needed to win.

The new forecast by political science professors Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder and Michael Berry of CU Denver is based on more recent economic data than their original Aug. 22 prediction. The model itself did not change.

“We continue to show that the economic conditions favor Romney even though many polls show the president in the lead,” Bickers said. “Other published models point to the same result, but they looked at the national popular vote, while we stress state-level economic data.”

[link to www.colorado.edu]


tounge
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 893880


You do realize that if Mit wins, we would have to buy a whole lot of marshmallows and hotdogs to cook due to all the fires across this nation?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 14948243


Your fear tactics won't save you from defeat.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 893880


What fear tactics? I'm not voting. Don't want to. Just wait and see what happens....

Sad how people react to certain situations.
Anonymous Coward
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10/18/2012 10:47 AM
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Re: Mitt Romney will lose the Presidential Election. With Stats.
October 4, 2012

An update to an election forecasting model announced by two University of Colorado professors in August continues to project that Mitt Romney will win the 2012 presidential election.

According to their updated analysis, Romney is projected to receive 330 of the total 538 Electoral College votes. President Barack Obama is expected to receive 208 votes -- down five votes from their initial prediction -- and short of the 270 needed to win.

The new forecast by political science professors Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder and Michael Berry of CU Denver is based on more recent economic data than their original Aug. 22 prediction. The model itself did not change.

“We continue to show that the economic conditions favor Romney even though many polls show the president in the lead,” Bickers said. “Other published models point to the same result, but they looked at the national popular vote, while we stress state-level economic data.”

[link to www.colorado.edu]


tounge
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 893880


Yes I have seen their model. Any model that disregards the political realities of a time period, in favor of arbitrary economic numbers alone. I simply can not trust. I also use economic data in my models as well. Mostly I stick with unemployment. Which would indicate that the president should win Va and Oh, given the low unemployment in those states. Iowa and Colorado should also fit nicely in that category. Since unemployment is high in Nevada, I guess I should disregard demographics and all polling data, and just throw NV into Romneys tally? I have respect for the historical accuracy of their model, however there are many more models that are more sensitive to the political realities of the time.
 Quoting: Frangas non Flectes

Wait you use what? The main headline of this mornings paper is that obama's unemployment numbers were proven false! 23 million people unemployed and you rely on them as your numbers.... You are a fucking idiot!

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