Mitt Romney will lose the Presidential Election. With Stats. | |
Anonymous Coward (OP) User ID: 25630825 United States 10/17/2012 04:23 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 24124662 United States 10/17/2012 04:25 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Why even vote if Electoral College decides who's the president? This whole thing a joke. That's why I never voted and never will. People who vote are gullible slaves to the system thinking they somehow matter and elect somebody. No, you don't, you vote because your just a sheep that the system wants you to be. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 24124662 United States 10/17/2012 04:26 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 1243271 United States 10/17/2012 04:29 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | sorry hony, your numbers do not add up [link to quickfacts.census.gov] The percentages those on welfare by race as of 2011 are listed below in descending order by percentage. Black-39.8% White-38.8% Hispanic-15.7% Other-3.3% Asian-2.4% With 47 million on food stamps lets do the math... US Population 320 million White 208 million Black 38 million hence 45% of total black population is on assistance versus 8.6% of the white population. "The nine most terrifying words in the English language are: 'I'm from the government and I'm here to help.'" By: Ronald Regan Most non-black people want to fend for themselves. We don't want your hand out nor do we want your hand in our pocket. Time to put out the trash.. We hired you Obama because you are black, we will fire you because you SUCK |
Anonymous Coward (OP) User ID: 25630825 United States 10/18/2012 09:05 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | sorry hony, your numbers do not add up Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1243271 [link to quickfacts.census.gov] The percentages those on welfare by race as of 2011 are listed below in descending order by percentage. Black-39.8% White-38.8% Hispanic-15.7% Other-3.3% Asian-2.4% With 47 million on food stamps lets do the math... US Population 320 million White 208 million Black 38 million hence 45% of total black population is on assistance versus 8.6% of the white population. "The nine most terrifying words in the English language are: 'I'm from the government and I'm here to help.'" By: Ronald Regan Most non-black people want to fend for themselves. We don't want your hand out nor do we want your hand in our pocket. Time to put out the trash.. We hired you Obama because you are black, we will fire you because you SUCK Thats pretty funny. So you think all white voters are gonna vote for Romney? In fact, the PPP poll I referenced shows Romney ahead with all white voters 50%-47%, in the state of Ohio. While Obama garners 86% of the African-American vote. So it is your numbers that dont quite add up. Not all white voters are as overtly racist as you. |
Anonymous Coward (OP) User ID: 25630825 United States 10/18/2012 09:21 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Romney can win without Ohio. Quoting: Super Bowl Dave So long as he wins FL, VA, NC, IA, NV, CO. FL, VA, NC look strong. CO is pretty strong. IA is very close. NV is close, but traditionally Republican, and I think Democrat Shelley Berkley in the senate race here is in trouble. So there is a path to victory without OH. If Romney manages to somehow win WI instead of NV or IA, then he wins. Realistically he isnt going to win WI.The RealClearPolitics average gives Obama a +2.2% advantage. A +2.3% lead in IA, and a narrow lead in NH. But im glad you brought up the point on Nevada. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 21132755 United States 10/18/2012 09:24 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 21132755 United States 10/18/2012 09:24 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 23182389 United States 10/18/2012 09:45 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 14948243 United States 10/18/2012 09:47 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Why even vote if Electoral College decides who's the president? Quoting: Anonymous Coward 24124662 This whole thing a joke. That's why I never voted and never will. People who vote are gullible slaves to the system thinking they somehow matter and elect somebody. No, you don't, you vote because your just a sheep that the system wants you to be. this^^^ |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 23182389 United States 10/18/2012 09:53 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Why even vote if Electoral College decides who's the president? Quoting: Anonymous Coward 24124662 This whole thing a joke. That's why I never voted and never will. People who vote are gullible slaves to the system thinking they somehow matter and elect somebody. No, you don't, you vote because your just a sheep that the system wants you to be. this^^^ |
Anonymous Coward (OP) User ID: 25630825 United States 10/18/2012 09:58 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Previously I showed how Romney is going to have a tough time winning the election without winning Ohio. I also showed how winning Ohio has likely become a difficult task for Gov. Romney. Now we will examine Nevada. Nevada- Nevada is a strange state historically. Voted for Clinton twice, then Bush twice, and then for Obama in 2008. The thing that has really changed in Nevada is demographics. An exploding Hispanic population, has changed the political landscape of Nevada. Which for much of its history has long been a republican strong hold. This explains the dramatic shift to Obama in 2008, where he won the state by a massive 12.5% margin. Turnout for that election was 967,848 voters, or about 50% turnout( [link to en.wikipedia.org] In 2004, turnout was 829,597 voters. Which also represented about 50% turnout( [link to en.wikipedia.org] So I went to the Nevada Sec. of State website and found the number of current registered voters in Nevada. Which turned out to be 2,035,543 registered voters as of 2012( [link to www.nvsos.gov] Then using the 50% turnout model which has been consistent in the last two cycles I found that there will likely be about, 1,017,771 total votes cast in Nevada this year. Using the most recent Rasmussen poll of Nevada, which I think we all will agree would be the most generous polling model for conservatives, extrapolated the final vote totals for Nevada. [link to www.rasmussenreports.com] In this Rasmussen poll, the president leads Gov. Romney 50%-47% among likely voters. Giving the president 50% gives him 508,885 votes. While Romney's 47% leaves him with 478,352 votes. With 1%(10,178) undecided, and 2%(20,355) preferring some other candidate. Obviously since the president has already reached 50%, even if we give Romney 100% of the undecided vote, he would still come up short. Making the final tally Obama-508,885 Romney-488,530 Third Party-20,355 A two percent win for the president. Using the most friendly republican model, and giving Gov. Romney 100% of the undecided vote. [link to www.270towin.com] As this map now shows. The president has eclipsed the 270 vote majority needed to win the electoral college. Again, using the most friendly republican polling model. Sources- [link to www.rasmussenreports.com] [link to en.wikipedia.org] [link to en.wikipedia.org] [link to www.nvsos.gov] |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 14948243 United States 10/18/2012 09:58 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Why even vote if Electoral College decides who's the president? Quoting: Anonymous Coward 24124662 This whole thing a joke. That's why I never voted and never will. People who vote are gullible slaves to the system thinking they somehow matter and elect somebody. No, you don't, you vote because your just a sheep that the system wants you to be. this^^^ So what you are saying is that our vote counts and is not really nothing more than a popular vote when the Electoral College is the entity that selects as well as elects the next president? I think that short bus is for you. All aboard........ |
ceawaves User ID: 25797672 United States 10/18/2012 09:59 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward (OP) User ID: 25630825 United States 10/18/2012 10:06 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I agree that Romney may win the popular vote. But at this point my final map would look like this, given past experience. But Iowa may flip as well. Still, it doesnt give Romney enough electoral college votes to win. [link to www.270towin.com] |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 14948243 United States 10/18/2012 10:11 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I agree that Romney may win the popular vote. But at this point my final map would look like this, given past past experience. [link to www.270towin.com] When it comes to the Electoral College, Romney may lose the popular vote and still win the election. No one really knows at this point what is going to be the outcome. It's all got to do with money and power as well as keeping the promises made behind the curtains. |
Anonymous Coward (OP) User ID: 25630825 United States 10/18/2012 10:13 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | The electoral college decides the outcome, not the popular vote. If Romney cant win WI, OH, and NV. He cant win the election. Regardless of what the popular vote outcome happens to be. For example, Romney may win by a huge margin in the red states, cut his deficit in the Blue states to 5% instead of 10%. But still lose the state and only rack up a lead in the popular vote. While Obama wins the states he needs to and gets to 270. After all, that is the name of the game. |
Anonymous Coward (OP) User ID: 25630825 United States 10/18/2012 10:29 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 893880 United States 10/18/2012 10:35 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | October 4, 2012 An update to an election forecasting model announced by two University of Colorado professors in August continues to project that Mitt Romney will win the 2012 presidential election. According to their updated analysis, Romney is projected to receive 330 of the total 538 Electoral College votes. President Barack Obama is expected to receive 208 votes -- down five votes from their initial prediction -- and short of the 270 needed to win. The new forecast by political science professors Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder and Michael Berry of CU Denver is based on more recent economic data than their original Aug. 22 prediction. The model itself did not change. “We continue to show that the economic conditions favor Romney even though many polls show the president in the lead,” Bickers said. “Other published models point to the same result, but they looked at the national popular vote, while we stress state-level economic data.” [link to www.colorado.edu] |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 21132755 United States 10/18/2012 10:37 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward (OP) User ID: 25630825 United States 10/18/2012 10:37 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Why even vote if Electoral College decides who's the president? Quoting: Anonymous Coward 24124662 This whole thing a joke. That's why I never voted and never will. People who vote are gullible slaves to the system thinking they somehow matter and elect somebody. No, you don't, you vote because your just a sheep that the system wants you to be. this^^^ So what you are saying is that our vote counts and is not really nothing more than a popular vote when the Electoral College is the entity that selects as well as elects the next president? I think that short bus is for you. All aboard........ You lack fundamental understanding of the process. When a candidate wins a state, the party that wins selects the electors to represent that state in the electoral college. Every state but two,(NE and ME), have a winner take all system. Where by the popular vote winner, receives all of that states delegates to the electoral college. The other two states, NE and ME, alot their delegates by individual congressional district. But the popular vote winner of that district, wins the delegate. The Electoral College isnt some sinister shadowy force. In modern terms, it is merely a formality. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 14948243 United States 10/18/2012 10:40 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | October 4, 2012 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 893880 An update to an election forecasting model announced by two University of Colorado professors in August continues to project that Mitt Romney will win the 2012 presidential election. According to their updated analysis, Romney is projected to receive 330 of the total 538 Electoral College votes. President Barack Obama is expected to receive 208 votes -- down five votes from their initial prediction -- and short of the 270 needed to win. The new forecast by political science professors Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder and Michael Berry of CU Denver is based on more recent economic data than their original Aug. 22 prediction. The model itself did not change. “We continue to show that the economic conditions favor Romney even though many polls show the president in the lead,” Bickers said. “Other published models point to the same result, but they looked at the national popular vote, while we stress state-level economic data.” [link to www.colorado.edu] You do realize that if Mit wins, we would have to buy a whole lot of marshmallows and hotdogs to cook due to all the fires across this nation? |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 21132755 United States 10/18/2012 10:40 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | So what you are saying is that our vote counts and is not really nothing more than a popular vote when the Electoral College is the entity that selects as well as elects the next president? I think that short bus is for you. All aboard........ You lack fundamental understanding of the process. When a candidate wins a state, the party that wins selects the electors to represent that state in the electoral college. Every state but two,(NE and ME), have a winner take all system. Where by the popular vote winner, receives all of that states delegates to the electoral college. The other two states, NE and ME, alot their delegates by individual congressional district. But the popular vote winner of that district, wins the delegate. The Electoral College isnt some sinister shadowy force. In modern terms, it is merely a formality. He is still going to loose, Your polling models dont wash |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 23182389 United States 10/18/2012 10:41 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | The electoral college decides the outcome, not the popular vote. If Romney cant win WI, OH, and NV. He cant win the election. Regardless of what the popular vote outcome happens to be. For example, Romney may win by a huge margin in the red states, cut his deficit in the Blue states to 5% instead of 10%. But still lose the state and only rack up a lead in the popular vote. While Obama wins the states he needs to and gets to 270. After all, that is the name of the game. [link to www.breitbart.com] Keep dreaming. Romney will win. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 893880 United States 10/18/2012 10:42 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | October 4, 2012 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 893880 An update to an election forecasting model announced by two University of Colorado professors in August continues to project that Mitt Romney will win the 2012 presidential election. According to their updated analysis, Romney is projected to receive 330 of the total 538 Electoral College votes. President Barack Obama is expected to receive 208 votes -- down five votes from their initial prediction -- and short of the 270 needed to win. The new forecast by political science professors Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder and Michael Berry of CU Denver is based on more recent economic data than their original Aug. 22 prediction. The model itself did not change. “We continue to show that the economic conditions favor Romney even though many polls show the president in the lead,” Bickers said. “Other published models point to the same result, but they looked at the national popular vote, while we stress state-level economic data.” [link to www.colorado.edu] You do realize that if Mit wins, we would have to buy a whole lot of marshmallows and hotdogs to cook due to all the fires across this nation? Your fear tactics won't save you from defeat. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 14948243 United States 10/18/2012 10:43 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | So what you are saying is that our vote counts and is not really nothing more than a popular vote when the Electoral College is the entity that selects as well as elects the next president? I think that short bus is for you. All aboard........ You lack fundamental understanding of the process. When a candidate wins a state, the party that wins selects the electors to represent that state in the electoral college. Every state but two,(NE and ME), have a winner take all system. Where by the popular vote winner, receives all of that states delegates to the electoral college. The other two states, NE and ME, alot their delegates by individual congressional district. But the popular vote winner of that district, wins the delegate. The Electoral College isnt some sinister shadowy force. In modern terms, it is merely a formality. In the pass a candidate has won the popular vote across the board and still lost the race. You know this do you not? |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 21132755 United States 10/18/2012 10:43 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Its funny how the democrats are trying to prove on paper that statistically obama is going to win, they are telegraphing that they are going to try to unlawfully steal the election... then say they have the stats to prove it... People if you cannot see this is a blatant, and outright telegraphing of what they are about to attempt you better get out your shotguns and get ready to party |
Anonymous Coward (OP) User ID: 25630825 United States 10/18/2012 10:44 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | October 4, 2012 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 893880 An update to an election forecasting model announced by two University of Colorado professors in August continues to project that Mitt Romney will win the 2012 presidential election. According to their updated analysis, Romney is projected to receive 330 of the total 538 Electoral College votes. President Barack Obama is expected to receive 208 votes -- down five votes from their initial prediction -- and short of the 270 needed to win. The new forecast by political science professors Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder and Michael Berry of CU Denver is based on more recent economic data than their original Aug. 22 prediction. The model itself did not change. “We continue to show that the economic conditions favor Romney even though many polls show the president in the lead,” Bickers said. “Other published models point to the same result, but they looked at the national popular vote, while we stress state-level economic data.” [link to www.colorado.edu] Yes I have seen their model. Any model that disregards the political realities of a time period, in favor of arbitrary economic numbers alone. I simply can not trust. I also use economic data in my models as well. Mostly I stick with unemployment. Which would indicate that the president should win Va and Oh, given the low unemployment in those states. Iowa and Colorado should also fit nicely in that category. Since unemployment is high in Nevada, I guess I should disregard demographics and all polling data, and just throw NV into Romneys tally? I have respect for the historical accuracy of their model, however there are many more models that are more sensitive to the political realities of the time. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 14948243 United States 10/18/2012 10:45 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | October 4, 2012 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 893880 An update to an election forecasting model announced by two University of Colorado professors in August continues to project that Mitt Romney will win the 2012 presidential election. According to their updated analysis, Romney is projected to receive 330 of the total 538 Electoral College votes. President Barack Obama is expected to receive 208 votes -- down five votes from their initial prediction -- and short of the 270 needed to win. The new forecast by political science professors Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder and Michael Berry of CU Denver is based on more recent economic data than their original Aug. 22 prediction. The model itself did not change. “We continue to show that the economic conditions favor Romney even though many polls show the president in the lead,” Bickers said. “Other published models point to the same result, but they looked at the national popular vote, while we stress state-level economic data.” [link to www.colorado.edu] You do realize that if Mit wins, we would have to buy a whole lot of marshmallows and hotdogs to cook due to all the fires across this nation? Your fear tactics won't save you from defeat. What fear tactics? I'm not voting. Don't want to. Just wait and see what happens.... Sad how people react to certain situations. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 21132755 United States 10/18/2012 10:47 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | October 4, 2012 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 893880 An update to an election forecasting model announced by two University of Colorado professors in August continues to project that Mitt Romney will win the 2012 presidential election. According to their updated analysis, Romney is projected to receive 330 of the total 538 Electoral College votes. President Barack Obama is expected to receive 208 votes -- down five votes from their initial prediction -- and short of the 270 needed to win. The new forecast by political science professors Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder and Michael Berry of CU Denver is based on more recent economic data than their original Aug. 22 prediction. The model itself did not change. “We continue to show that the economic conditions favor Romney even though many polls show the president in the lead,” Bickers said. “Other published models point to the same result, but they looked at the national popular vote, while we stress state-level economic data.” [link to www.colorado.edu] Yes I have seen their model. Any model that disregards the political realities of a time period, in favor of arbitrary economic numbers alone. I simply can not trust. I also use economic data in my models as well. Mostly I stick with unemployment. Which would indicate that the president should win Va and Oh, given the low unemployment in those states. Iowa and Colorado should also fit nicely in that category. Since unemployment is high in Nevada, I guess I should disregard demographics and all polling data, and just throw NV into Romneys tally? I have respect for the historical accuracy of their model, however there are many more models that are more sensitive to the political realities of the time. Wait you use what? The main headline of this mornings paper is that obama's unemployment numbers were proven false! 23 million people unemployed and you rely on them as your numbers.... You are a fucking idiot! |