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TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT: Invest 99L in the Caribbean. Florida at Risk - Recon Flies Monday

 
DoorBert
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10/21/2012 06:35 AM
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TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT: Invest 99L in the Caribbean. Florida at Risk - Recon Flies Monday
Models are ramping this up and latest trends could indicate a potential CONUS landfall.

Currently, NHC has a high chance for development.

Stay tuned for updates.



SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA IS CURRENTLY MINIMAL. HOWEVER...SURFACE PRESSURES
ARE LOW IN THE AREA...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE WAVE
MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. HEAVY RAINS FROM THIS DISTURBANCE OR
POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD OVER JAMAICA...
EASTERN CUBA...AND HISPANIOLA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE
RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES...ESPECIALLY NEAR AREAS OF HIGH TERRAIN.

[link to www.nhc.noaa.gov]

Last Edited by DoorBert on 10/21/2012 03:21 PM
DoorBert (OP)

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10/21/2012 06:42 AM
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Re: TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT: Invest 99L in the Caribbean. Florida at Risk - Recon Flies Monday
Canadian Model has this really close to Miami

[link to moe.met.fsu.edu]
DoorBert (OP)

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10/21/2012 06:45 AM
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Re: TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT: Invest 99L in the Caribbean. Florida at Risk - Recon Flies Monday
5 models are taking it to a Cat 2

[link to i189.photobucket.com]
DoorBert (OP)

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10/21/2012 06:49 AM
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Re: TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT: Invest 99L in the Caribbean. Florida at Risk - Recon Flies Monday
There has been a good deal of model support for 99L becoming a tropical depression by Wednesday.

Steering currents favor a continued slow westward movement for 99L through Tuesday, which will bring a multi-day period of heavy rains to Haiti, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba beginning on Sunday.

The Dominican Republic may also see some heavy rains, though not as great.

On Wednesday, a strong trough of low pressure will approaching the Eastern U.S., and the GFS and ECMWF models predict that this trough will turn 99L to the north, bringing the storm into the southeast Bahama Islands on Thursday or Friday.

[link to www.wunderground.com]
DoorBert (OP)

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10/21/2012 06:52 AM
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Re: TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT: Invest 99L in the Caribbean. Florida at Risk - Recon Flies Monday
Hurricane Hunters in the air this afternoon.

[link to www.nhc.noaa.gov]
momma coop

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10/21/2012 07:02 AM
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Re: TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT: Invest 99L in the Caribbean. Florida at Risk - Recon Flies Monday
Good Morning DB! hf

I have had enough of the rain, I hope this stays away from cfl.
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DoorBert (OP)

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10/21/2012 07:11 AM
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Re: TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT: Invest 99L in the Caribbean. Florida at Risk - Recon Flies Monday
Good Morning DB! hf

I have had enough of the rain, I hope this stays away from cfl.
 Quoting: momma coop


Morning Momma

hfhfhf

Lots of "ifs" in the forecast.

Big thing is if this lingers deep in the Carib to miss being scooped up by fronts it may drift north into Florida.

Otherwise, it could get swept away into the Atlantic.

Its wait and see.
DoorBert (OP)

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10/21/2012 08:08 AM
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Re: TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT: Invest 99L in the Caribbean. Florida at Risk - Recon Flies Monday
Flaring up now at 14N 71.5W

[link to www.ssd.noaa.gov]

Sea surface temps are hot at 30C
DoorBert (OP)

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10/21/2012 03:15 PM
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Re: TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT: Invest 99L in the Caribbean. Florida at Risk - Recon Flies Monday
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT


FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.8N 76.0W TO 14.8N 78.9W


WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 211200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.7N 75.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.

REMARKS: CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING INTENSIFICATION OF
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. AT 211200Z,
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED AN AREA OF INCREASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THAT HAS PERSISTED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
OF 83 TO 85 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT IN CONJUNCTION WITH A FAVORABLE UPPER AIR
ENVIRONMENT MAY ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE.

THIS ALERT WILL BE UPGRADED TO WARNING OR REISSUED AS REQUIRED
BY 221530Z.//
DoorBert (OP)

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10/21/2012 03:18 PM
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Re: TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT: Invest 99L in the Caribbean. Florida at Risk - Recon Flies Monday
12Z NOGAPS is showing a Miami Hit!!

[link to moe.met.fsu.edu]
DoorBert (OP)

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10/21/2012 03:22 PM
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Re: TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT: Invest 99L in the Caribbean. Florida at Risk - Recon Flies Monday
Recon has been rescheduled to Monday

Will leave Kessler AFB 09:30 EDT and reach the storm about 13:30 EDT

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