TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT: Invest 99L in the Caribbean. Florida at Risk - Recon Flies Monday

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TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT: Invest 99L in the Caribbean. Florida at Risk - Recon Flies Monday Tweet
DoorBert User ID: 870568 United States 10/21/2012 06:35 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation	TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT: Invest 99L in the Caribbean. Florida at Risk - Recon Flies Monday Models are ramping this up and latest trends could indicate a potential CONUS landfall. Currently, NHC has a high chance for development. Stay tuned for updates. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS CURRENTLY MINIMAL. HOWEVER...SURFACE PRESSURES ARE LOW IN THE AREA...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE WAVE MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. HEAVY RAINS FROM THIS DISTURBANCE OR POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD OVER JAMAICA... EASTERN CUBA...AND HISPANIOLA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY NEAR AREAS OF HIGH TERRAIN. [link to www.nhc.noaa.gov] Last Edited by DoorBert on 10/21/2012 03:21 PM
DoorBert (OP) User ID: 870568 United States 10/21/2012 06:42 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation	Re: TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT: Invest 99L in the Caribbean. Florida at Risk - Recon Flies Monday Canadian Model has this really close to Miami [link to moe.met.fsu.edu]
DoorBert (OP) User ID: 870568 United States 10/21/2012 06:45 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation	Re: TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT: Invest 99L in the Caribbean. Florida at Risk - Recon Flies Monday 5 models are taking it to a Cat 2 [link to i189.photobucket.com]
DoorBert (OP) User ID: 870568 United States 10/21/2012 06:49 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation	Re: TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT: Invest 99L in the Caribbean. Florida at Risk - Recon Flies Monday There has been a good deal of model support for 99L becoming a tropical depression by Wednesday. Steering currents favor a continued slow westward movement for 99L through Tuesday, which will bring a multi-day period of heavy rains to Haiti, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba beginning on Sunday. The Dominican Republic may also see some heavy rains, though not as great. On Wednesday, a strong trough of low pressure will approaching the Eastern U.S., and the GFS and ECMWF models predict that this trough will turn 99L to the north, bringing the storm into the southeast Bahama Islands on Thursday or Friday. [link to www.wunderground.com]
DoorBert (OP) User ID: 870568 United States 10/21/2012 06:52 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation	Re: TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT: Invest 99L in the Caribbean. Florida at Risk - Recon Flies Monday Hurricane Hunters in the air this afternoon. [link to www.nhc.noaa.gov]
momma coop User ID: 20442533 United States 10/21/2012 07:02 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation	Re: TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT: Invest 99L in the Caribbean. Florida at Risk - Recon Flies Monday Good Morning DB! I have had enough of the rain, I hope this stays away from cfl. "I believe there's a hero in all of us, that keeps us honest, gives us strength, makes us noble, and finally allows us to die with pride, even though sometimes we have to be steady, and give up the thing we want the most. Even our dreams." "Because you are you"
DoorBert (OP) User ID: 857877 United States 10/21/2012 07:11 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation	Re: TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT: Invest 99L in the Caribbean. Florida at Risk - Recon Flies Monday Good Morning DB! I have had enough of the rain, I hope this stays away from cfl. Quoting: momma coop Morning Momma Lots of "ifs" in the forecast. Big thing is if this lingers deep in the Carib to miss being scooped up by fronts it may drift north into Florida. Otherwise, it could get swept away into the Atlantic. Its wait and see.
DoorBert (OP) User ID: 870568 United States 10/21/2012 08:08 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation	Re: TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT: Invest 99L in the Caribbean. Florida at Risk - Recon Flies Monday Flaring up now at 14N 71.5W [link to www.ssd.noaa.gov] Sea surface temps are hot at 30C
DoorBert (OP) User ID: 1495371 United States 10/21/2012 03:15 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation	Re: TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT: Invest 99L in the Caribbean. Florida at Risk - Recon Flies Monday TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.8N 76.0W TO 14.8N 78.9W WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 211200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 75.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS. REMARKS: CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING INTENSIFICATION OF A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. AT 211200Z, SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED AN AREA OF INCREASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT HAS PERSISTED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 83 TO 85 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT IN CONJUNCTION WITH A FAVORABLE UPPER AIR ENVIRONMENT MAY ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS ALERT WILL BE UPGRADED TO WARNING OR REISSUED AS REQUIRED BY 221530Z.//
DoorBert (OP) User ID: 1495371 United States 10/21/2012 03:18 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation	Re: TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT: Invest 99L in the Caribbean. Florida at Risk - Recon Flies Monday 12Z NOGAPS is showing a Miami Hit!! [link to moe.met.fsu.edu]

DoorBert (OP) User ID: 1495371 United States 10/21/2012 03:22 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation	Re: TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT: Invest 99L in the Caribbean. Florida at Risk - Recon Flies Monday Recon has been rescheduled to Monday Will leave Kessler AFB 09:30 EDT and reach the storm about 13:30 EDT
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