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Message Subject Watch as it Develops - The Staged War Against Islamists in Northern Mali
Poster Handle insertfunnyusername
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BilletsdAfrique (@Billetsdafrique)
11/8/12, 5:47 AM
#Mali: ministre de l'Intérieur algérien estime que le nbre de
"terroristes et de narcotrafiquants" au #Sahel "ne dépasse pas 2.000 à 3.000

Only 2,000 to 3,000? Sounds like a cakewalk...
 Quoting: DarbyDoom


Morning DD! When the coup happened they had about 3500, i fully expect them to have more now. They still are not many though to control such a huge area, reinforcements from other countries are heading there daily.
 Quoting: insertfunnyusername


I think the current number is an undercount....

Did the 3,500 number include MNLA? Some of those guys were killed when Ansar Dine/MUJWA/AQIM took over... A number of AQIM guys were also killed in that fight (including a few high-level commanders).... But the numbers of deaths was probably less than 100 (both sides)

AND we've had multiple reports of fighters (and trainers) streaming in....MNLA foot soldiers changing sides (for money) and locals joining the Islamists (for money)...

This is just my CPA mind doing an initial head count. Of the 3,500, if we presume 2,500 were MNLA and 50 died... That gets you to 950... Then add back MNLA low-level defections (maybe 1,000?) That gets you to 1,950 w/o any new foreign fighters or new recruits... But they claim foreigners are streaming in & they have multiple training camps. So, presume between 4,000 to 6,000 (conservatively)...But then you reduce that by the number of Ansar Dine members who will accept the peace deal...The end number - I have no friggin idea (and I bet the Algerians are in the same boat)
 Quoting: DarbyDoom


I too think it's an undercount. The 3500 includes MNLA, they were the majority with 3000 and the rest were the islamist groups, but this number is from the start of the year in the then conflict, i expect them to have recruit more and be more organized now with Qatari money flowing and reinforcements coming.
 
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