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Tropical Depression 18 forms in Caribbean. Reliable Model has Monster Hurricane of Epic Proportions just off East Coast Late Week into Next!!

 
DoorBert
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10/22/2012 11:15 AM
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Tropical Depression 18 forms in Caribbean. Reliable Model has Monster Hurricane of Epic Proportions just off East Coast Late Week into Next!!
[link to www.nhc.noaa.gov]


TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1100 AM EDT MON OCT 22 2012

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS ACQUIRED
SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
THE EXACT CENTER IS STILL A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT...BUT THE
SYSTEM HAS CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION...AND CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS
INCREASED MARKEDLY SINCE OVERNIGHT. REFINEMENTS TO THE POSITION
COULD BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY ONCE THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER
PLANE INVESTIGATES THE SYSTEM.

THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD...AND THE
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 230/4 KT. THE CYCLONE IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA...AND THIS FEATURE SHOULD
CAUSE THE DEPRESSION TO MOVE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
AFTER 24 HOURS...A DEVELOPING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER CUBA
SHOULD PULL THE DEPRESSION NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD JAMAICA AND
EASTERN CUBA. WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW VARYING SCENARIOS BY
THE END OF THE WEEK...THEY ALL AGREE ON A PERSISTENT NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION THROUGH DAY 5. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS VERY
NEAR THE CENTER OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS HIGHLY CONDUCIVE
FOR STRENGTHENING...AT LEAST DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. IN
FACT...THERE IS A 50/50 CHANCE THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL STRENGTHEN
BY AT LEAST 25 KT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BASED ON THE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION INDEX. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS
FAIRLY QUICK STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE
DEPRESSION COULD BE ON THE CUSP OF BECOMING A HURRICANE AS IT IS
APPROACHING JAMAICA. AFTER 48 HOURS...VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY...AND NEARLY ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE WILL TAKE ON MORE HYBRID
CHARACTERISTICS...SUCH AS AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD TO THE NORTH AND
ITS INTERACTION WITH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST THEREFORE SHOWS THE CYCLONE BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL STORM
BY DAY 5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 13.5N 78.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 13.7N 78.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 14.3N 78.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 15.7N 77.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 17.4N 77.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 25/1200Z 20.5N 76.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND OVER CUBA
96H 26/1200Z 24.5N 74.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 27/1200Z 27.0N 73.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...SUBTROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER BERG/AVILA

Last Edited by DoorBert on 10/22/2012 04:10 PM
DoorBert (OP)

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Re: Tropical Depression 18 forms in Caribbean. Reliable Model has Monster Hurricane of Epic Proportions just off East Coast Late Week into Next!!
Latest from Dr Masters at Weather Underground

Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to be in the low to moderate range, 5 - 20 knots, through Tuesday night. This should allow for some steady development of 99L, and there is strong model support for 99L becoming a tropical depression by Wednesday. Steering currents have collapsed, and 99L should move little today. On Tuesday, a trough of low pressure to the north of 99L is expected to turn the storm to the north or north-northeast, which should put the storm in the vicinity of Jamaica on Wednesday and Eastern Cuba on Thursday. By Friday, 99L should be in the Central or Eastern Bahamas. It is unclear at this point whether or not the trough pulling 99L to the north will be strong enough to pull the storm all the way out to sea to the northeast; a very complicated steering environment will develop late this week, and it is possible that a narrow ridge of high pressure could build in over 99L and force the storm to the west-northwest, with a potential threat to the Northwestern Bahamas and U.S. East Coast by Saturday.


[link to www.wunderground.com]
DoorBert (OP)

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Re: Tropical Depression 18 forms in Caribbean. Reliable Model has Monster Hurricane of Epic Proportions just off East Coast Late Week into Next!!
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
200 PM EDT MON OCT 22 2012

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE
DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 78.5W
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. A
HURRICANE WATCH AND/OR A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED
FOR JAMAICA LATER TODAY.

INTERESTS IN EASTERN CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND THE BAHAMAS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
EIGHTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST.
THE DEPRESSION HAS MOVED LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND SHOULD
DRIFT GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE
CYCLONE SHOULD APPROACH JAMAICA TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT. THE CYCLONE COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT IS
APPROACHING JAMAICA ON WEDNESDAY. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN JAMAICA BY TUESDAY
NIGHT.

RAINFALL...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA...HAITI...THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND EASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 16 INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREA OF MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN AREAS. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/AVILA

[link to www.nhc.noaa.gov]
DoorBert (OP)

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10/22/2012 02:40 PM
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Re: Tropical Depression 18 forms in Caribbean. Reliable Model has Monster Hurricane of Epic Proportions just off East Coast Late Week into Next!!
12Z EURO has it a Cat 2 about 100 miles off the Florida coast on Saturday

[link to raleighwx.americanwx.com]

Last Edited by DoorBert on 10/22/2012 02:40 PM
Anonymous Coward
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10/22/2012 02:46 PM
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Re: Tropical Depression 18 forms in Caribbean. Reliable Model has Monster Hurricane of Epic Proportions just off East Coast Late Week into Next!!
Pretty late in the season. Im in CT thought something woulda hit us like last year but its been pretty quite around these parts for storms in 2012. A few major t-storms but nothing crazy. Wonder this one is gonna shift westerly once it goes north a little. A few weeks ago a Cat 3 hurricane buzzed the coast but was too far out to sea. No mention of that in the news. This should be interesting...
DoorBert (OP)

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10/22/2012 02:52 PM
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Re: Tropical Depression 18 forms in Caribbean. Reliable Model has Monster Hurricane of Epic Proportions just off East Coast Late Week into Next!!
Pretty late in the season. Im in CT thought something woulda hit us like last year but its been pretty quite around these parts for storms in 2012. A few major t-storms but nothing crazy. Wonder this one is gonna shift westerly once it goes north a little. A few weeks ago a Cat 3 hurricane buzzed the coast but was too far out to sea. No mention of that in the news. This should be interesting...
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 11286122


Last I heard, this may phase with a cold front and become a very strong extra-tropical system.

Could tear up the whole east coast.
DoorBert (OP)

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10/22/2012 02:53 PM
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Re: Tropical Depression 18 forms in Caribbean. Reliable Model has Monster Hurricane of Epic Proportions just off East Coast Late Week into Next!!
DoorBert (OP)

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10/22/2012 02:56 PM
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Re: Tropical Depression 18 forms in Caribbean. Reliable Model has Monster Hurricane of Epic Proportions just off East Coast Late Week into Next!!
Joe Bastardi

ECMWF further east and turn to NW more New England problem on it.

Not changing ideas yet model in 930s with pressure

Hit on New England now

ECMWF has 27.60 storm ( 936 mb) at 40 n, 70 w in 228 hrs.

Bottom line: verdict out till Friday when storm in Bahamas.

Major potential tho

[link to twitter.com]
DoorBert (OP)

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10/22/2012 03:01 PM
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Re: Tropical Depression 18 forms in Caribbean. Reliable Model has Monster Hurricane of Epic Proportions just off East Coast Late Week into Next!!
Holy crap - Cat 4, 200 miles SE of NYC on Wednesday 10/31

[link to twitter.com]
wtf
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10/22/2012 03:03 PM
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Re: Tropical Depression 18 forms in Caribbean. Reliable Model has Monster Hurricane of Epic Proportions just off East Coast Late Week into Next!!
GLP in effect please; we had a major storm last year @ this time. Cancelled Halloween for the kids; were without power for 7 days

If this happens this is BS..and pissed!
DoorBert (OP)

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10/22/2012 03:06 PM
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Re: Tropical Depression 18 forms in Caribbean. Reliable Model has Monster Hurricane of Epic Proportions just off East Coast Late Week into Next!!
HWRF 12z aggressive with 18L as a major hurricane passed Jamaica prior to Cuba landfall.

[link to twitter.com]
Anonymous Coward
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10/22/2012 03:20 PM
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Re: Tropical Depression 18 forms in Caribbean. Reliable Model has Monster Hurricane of Epic Proportions just off East Coast Late Week into Next!!
blahblah

Hey, i've got some nice swampland for sale too if you're interested....
DoorBert (OP)

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10/22/2012 04:08 PM
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Re: Tropical Depression 18 forms in Caribbean. Reliable Model has Monster Hurricane of Epic Proportions just off East Coast Late Week into Next!!
Monster East Coast storm next week or big miss?

A few computer models have conjured up a storm of epic proportions for the mid-Atlantic and/or Northeast next week. But before anyone presses the panic button, most other models keep the storm out to sea.

Because of the pre-storm hype resonating through social media streams, let’s clear the air by answering some basic questions and sharing some expert opinions...

How likely is a big storm? The pieces are there for a big storm, the question is whether and where they come together.

[link to www.washingtonpost.com]
Anonymous Coward
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10/22/2012 05:10 PM
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Re: Tropical Depression 18 forms in Caribbean. Reliable Model has Monster Hurricane of Epic Proportions just off East Coast Late Week into Next!!
Thanks OP!
Really watching this one. Keep us up to date - Thanks so much for your research.


bump
1908247

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Re: Tropical Depression 18 forms in Caribbean. Reliable Model has Monster Hurricane of Epic Proportions just off East Coast Late Week into Next!!
bump
- ? Nus.

-You Hold Witness I Witness

As if he could, by himself, say:
_Alive, therefore life itself.
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10/22/2012 05:16 PM

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Re: Tropical Depression 18 forms in Caribbean. Reliable Model has Monster Hurricane of Epic Proportions just off East Coast Late Week into Next!!
Thank You Doorbert for the info. Greatly appreciate the warning.

bump

Peace
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abeliever

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10/22/2012 05:21 PM

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Re: Tropical Depression 18 forms in Caribbean. Reliable Model has Monster Hurricane of Epic Proportions just off East Coast Late Week into Next!!
Thanks, Doorbert.

Watching this one. Looks like it could be horrible.


bump
* Lucky Star *

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10/22/2012 05:30 PM

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Re: Tropical Depression 18 forms in Caribbean. Reliable Model has Monster Hurricane of Epic Proportions just off East Coast Late Week into Next!!
Thanks I will continue to follow for updates.cool2
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10/22/2012 05:34 PM
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Re: Tropical Depression 18 forms in Caribbean. Reliable Model has Monster Hurricane of Epic Proportions just off East Coast Late Week into Next!!
October surprise!!
Anonymous Coward
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10/22/2012 05:37 PM
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Re: Tropical Depression 18 forms in Caribbean. Reliable Model has Monster Hurricane of Epic Proportions just off East Coast Late Week into Next!!
Doesn't this look extremely suspicious? So Hurricane Sandy was already planned a long time ago?

[link to www.weca.org]
Elsabiades...
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Re: Tropical Depression 18 forms in Caribbean. Reliable Model has Monster Hurricane of Epic Proportions just off East Coast Late Week into Next!!
Ho-Hum....Noaa forecasts the "storm" to move toward the NorthEast; i.e.: toward Europe and away from any north american landmass...*yawn*..ZZZZZzzzzzzzzzzzz
Anonymous Coward
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10/22/2012 06:33 PM
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Re: Tropical Depression 18 forms in Caribbean. Reliable Model has Monster Hurricane of Epic Proportions just off East Coast Late Week into Next!!
Ho-Hum....Noaa forecasts the "storm" to move toward the NorthEast; i.e.: toward Europe and away from any north american landmass...*yawn*..ZZZZZzzzzzzzzzzzz
 Quoting: Elsabiades... 14905290


hiding
Dr. AculaModerator
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10/22/2012 06:35 PM

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Re: Tropical Depression 18 forms in Caribbean. Reliable Model has Monster Hurricane of Epic Proportions just off East Coast Late Week into Next!!
Thanks for the heads up!
Im in ol Kentucky, but i appreciate weather updates like this a lt!

Doorbert you are awesome! :)
FatalW1shes

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10/22/2012 06:35 PM

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Re: Tropical Depression 18 forms in Caribbean. Reliable Model has Monster Hurricane of Epic Proportions just off East Coast Late Week into Next!!
Tropical Storm Sandy now

[link to www.nhc.noaa.gov]
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Re: Tropical Depression 18 forms in Caribbean. Reliable Model has Monster Hurricane of Epic Proportions just off East Coast Late Week into Next!!
Ho-Hum....Noaa forecasts the "storm" to move toward the NorthEast; i.e.: toward Europe and away from any north american landmass...*yawn*..ZZZZZzzzzzzzzzzzz
 Quoting: Elsabiades... 14905290


hiding
 Quoting: Bovril


Haha yeah I feel ya!
Anonymous Coward
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10/22/2012 06:44 PM
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Re: Tropical Depression 18 forms in Caribbean. Reliable Model has Monster Hurricane of Epic Proportions just off East Coast Late Week into Next!!
It won't happen since it's coming from DoomBert.
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10/22/2012 07:12 PM
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Re: Tropical Depression 18 forms in Caribbean. Reliable Model has Monster Hurricane of Epic Proportions just off East Coast Late Week into Next!!
Awesome as ever doorbert! You always provide good data!
Keep up the good work! :)
4 stars ^ pin reccomendation.
Just Some Guy

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10/22/2012 07:16 PM
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Re: Tropical Depression 18 forms in Caribbean. Reliable Model has Monster Hurricane of Epic Proportions just off East Coast Late Week into Next!!
What are you talking about?
It is east of Bermuda and the track has it going to the NNE.
There is no chance it's landing any where in N. America.
Anonymous Coward
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10/22/2012 07:19 PM
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Re: Tropical Depression 18 forms in Caribbean. Reliable Model has Monster Hurricane of Epic Proportions just off East Coast Late Week into Next!!
Just some guy, you are talking about TS #19, shes talking about the system in the gulf of mexico now, #18.
JanJan

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10/22/2012 07:21 PM

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Re: Tropical Depression 18 forms in Caribbean. Reliable Model has Monster Hurricane of Epic Proportions just off East Coast Late Week into Next!!
Been following this on a couple of other threads... .

I kinda hope it is in the form of snow, if it hits - last year was a real dud for skiing...
Frater

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10/22/2012 07:26 PM

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Re: Tropical Depression 18 forms in Caribbean. Reliable Model has Monster Hurricane of Epic Proportions just off East Coast Late Week into Next!!
Being on Long island and with a boat in the water and a house on a canal I tend to keep track of these things. It has been a quiet year so far...

Computer models have Sandy staying well of the coast, I like wunderground for tropical weather:

[link to www.wunderground.com]

Frater
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