Tropical Depression 18 forms in Caribbean. Reliable Model has Monster Hurricane of Epic Proportions just off East Coast Late Week into Next!!

Latest from Dr Masters at Weather Underground

Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to be in the low to moderate range, 5 - 20 knots, through Tuesday night. This should allow for some steady development of 99L, and there is strong model support for 99L becoming a tropical depression by Wednesday. Steering currents have collapsed, and 99L should move little today. On Tuesday, a trough of low pressure to the north of 99L is expected to turn the storm to the north or north-northeast, which should put the storm in the vicinity of Jamaica on Wednesday and Eastern Cuba on Thursday. By Friday, 99L should be in the Central or Eastern Bahamas. It is unclear at this point whether or not the trough pulling 99L to the north will be strong enough to pull the storm all the way out to sea to the northeast; a very complicated steering environment will develop late this week, and it is possible that a narrow ridge of high pressure could build in over 99L and force the storm to the west-northwest, with a potential threat to the Northwestern Bahamas and U.S. East Coast by Saturday.


[link to www.wunderground.com]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
200 PM EDT MON OCT 22 2012

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE
DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 78.5W
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. A
HURRICANE WATCH AND/OR A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED
FOR JAMAICA LATER TODAY.

INTERESTS IN EASTERN CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND THE BAHAMAS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
EIGHTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST.
THE DEPRESSION HAS MOVED LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND SHOULD
DRIFT GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE
CYCLONE SHOULD APPROACH JAMAICA TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT. THE CYCLONE COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT IS
APPROACHING JAMAICA ON WEDNESDAY. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN JAMAICA BY TUESDAY
NIGHT.

RAINFALL...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA...HAITI...THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND EASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 16 INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREA OF MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN AREAS. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/AVILA

[link to www.nhc.noaa.gov]

12Z EURO has it a Cat 2 about 100 miles off the Florida coast on Saturday

[link to raleighwx.americanwx.com]

Last Edited by DoorBert on 10/22/2012 02:40 PM

Pretty late in the season. Im in CT thought something woulda hit us like last year but its been pretty quite around these parts for storms in 2012. A few major t-storms but nothing crazy. Wonder this one is gonna shift westerly once it goes north a little. A few weeks ago a Cat 3 hurricane buzzed the coast but was too far out to sea. No mention of that in the news. This should be interesting...

Last I heard, this may phase with a cold front and become a very strong extra-tropical system.

Could tear up the whole east coast.

Joe Bastardi

ECMWF further east and turn to NW more New England problem on it.

Not changing ideas yet model in 930s with pressure

Hit on New England now

ECMWF has 27.60 storm ( 936 mb) at 40 n, 70 w in 228 hrs.

Bottom line: verdict out till Friday when storm in Bahamas.

Major potential tho

[link to twitter.com]

Holy crap - Cat 4, 200 miles SE of NYC on Wednesday 10/31

[link to twitter.com]

GLP in effect please; we had a major storm last year @ this time. Cancelled Halloween for the kids; were without power for 7 days

If this happens this is BS..and pissed!

HWRF 12z aggressive with 18L as a major hurricane passed Jamaica prior to Cuba landfall.

[link to twitter.com]

Hey, i've got some nice swampland for sale too if you're interested....

Monster East Coast storm next week or big miss?

A few computer models have conjured up a storm of epic proportions for the mid-Atlantic and/or Northeast next week. But before anyone presses the panic button, most other models keep the storm out to sea.

Because of the pre-storm hype resonating through social media streams, let’s clear the air by answering some basic questions and sharing some expert opinions...

How likely is a big storm? The pieces are there for a big storm, the question is whether and where they come together.

[link to www.washingtonpost.com]

Thanks OP!
Really watching this one. Keep us up to date - Thanks so much for your research.

Thank You Doorbert for the info. Greatly appreciate the warning.



Peace
WildFlower

Thanks, Doorbert.

Watching this one. Looks like it could be horrible.

Thanks I will continue to follow for updates.

October surprise!!

Doesn't this look extremely suspicious? So Hurricane Sandy was already planned a long time ago?

[link to www.weca.org]

Ho-Hum....Noaa forecasts the "storm" to move toward the NorthEast; i.e.: toward Europe and away from any north american landmass...*yawn*..ZZZZZzzzzzzzzzzzz

Thanks for the heads up!
Im in ol Kentucky, but i appreciate weather updates like this a lt!

Doorbert you are awesome! :)

Tropical Storm Sandy now

[link to www.nhc.noaa.gov]

Haha yeah I feel ya!

It won't happen since it's coming from DoomBert.

Awesome as ever doorbert! You always provide good data!
Keep up the good work! :)
4 stars ^ pin reccomendation.

What are you talking about?
It is east of Bermuda and the track has it going to the NNE.
There is no chance it's landing any where in N. America.

Just some guy, you are talking about TS #19, shes talking about the system in the gulf of mexico now, #18.

Been following this on a couple of other threads... .

I kinda hope it is in the form of snow, if it hits - last year was a real dud for skiing...

Being on Long island and with a boat in the water and a house on a canal I tend to keep track of these things. It has been a quiet year so far...

Computer models have Sandy staying well of the coast, I like wunderground for tropical weather:

[link to www.wunderground.com]

Frater