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Trop Storm Sandy - A Potential "Perfect Storm"

 
DoorBert
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10/23/2012 04:42 AM
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Trop Storm Sandy - A Potential "Perfect Storm"
A storm for the ages? Perhaps.

There are very few instances when I have posted a headline like the one in this blog. Hype is not a tool I use to get the attention of my audience unless it is warranted and I feel it could help to save lives and property. What I am seeing in some of the global models is worthy of getting your attention and if it's hype, then all the better in the long run.

To put it in simple terms, some of the global models are indicating that this storm will get caught in the southwest Atlantic and grow in to a hybrid mix of a hurricane and a Nor'easter the likes we have not seen since as far back as 1991 with the "Perfect Storm".

[link to hurricanetrack.com]
DoorBert (OP)

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10/23/2012 04:46 AM
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Re: Trop Storm Sandy - A Potential "Perfect Storm"
Latest Euro has this heading to Long Island as a 950mb system = Cat 3

[link to moe.met.fsu.edu]

NHC considers Euro as the most reliable model.
DoorBert (OP)

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10/23/2012 04:49 AM
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Re: Trop Storm Sandy - A Potential "Perfect Storm"
Anonymous Coward
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10/23/2012 04:53 AM
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Re: Trop Storm Sandy - A Potential "Perfect Storm"
HOLY SHIT, this is the first time Ive read a DOOM post on GLP

THAT

HAS

ACTUAL

EVIDENCE

!!!!!!!!!!

AND ITS NOT EVIDENCE FROM BATSHIT CRAZY SOURCES!

10 STARS FOR OP ++++++
Anonymous Coward
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10/23/2012 04:56 AM
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Re: Trop Storm Sandy - A Potential "Perfect Storm"
Morning DB ! cheers You're up early as usual I see ! :)

This storm really has the potential to do some serious damage. I hope it dies down before it hits the US mainland !
DoorBert (OP)

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10/23/2012 04:57 AM
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Re: Trop Storm Sandy - A Potential "Perfect Storm"
HOLY SHIT, this is the first time Ive read a DOOM post on GLP

THAT

HAS

ACTUAL

EVIDENCE

!!!!!!!!!!

AND ITS NOT EVIDENCE FROM BATSHIT CRAZY SOURCES!

10 STARS FOR OP ++++++
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 19099851


cheers
Anonymous Coward
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10/23/2012 04:58 AM
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Re: Trop Storm Sandy - A Potential "Perfect Storm"
Let me just once again state how unusual this is. I've been reading GLP since 2005. I can count on one hand the number of potential DOOM posts that had actual evidence which came from REAL sources that were not other paranoid schizophrenics.

OP actually links to real, scientific proof AND doesn't even guarantee a doom event - call its "potential" - can you imagine if everyone on GLP stopped masturbating to doom and posted in a non-batshit crazy manner like this?
DoorBert (OP)

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10/23/2012 04:59 AM
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Re: Trop Storm Sandy - A Potential "Perfect Storm"
Morning DB ! cheers You're up early as usual I see ! :)

This storm really has the potential to do some serious damage. I hope it dies down when before it hits the US mainland !
 Quoting: subzero86


Morning SZ86

cheers

If it was any other model than the Euro, I won't worry.

Something to really keep an eye on.

On another note, what did you think of the debates?

I tried to watch but kept nodding off.
Éireann
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10/23/2012 05:00 AM

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Re: Trop Storm Sandy - A Potential "Perfect Storm"
Yes it is, Doorbert. I will go get the links, but forecasters are already having a cow over the forecast models they are seeing. A hurricane with snow is what some have been calling it.
Éireann~

Eisteacht le gra! ~ArunaLuna (Translation from Gaelic: "Listen to Love!")

"And I sincerely believe, with you, that banking establishments are more dangerous than standing armies; and that the principle of spending money to be paid by posterity, under the name of funding, is but swindling futurity on a large scale." - Thomas Jefferson, from a Letter to John Taylor written in 1816

"Unfortunately, it is in the nature of man to tinker - even with immutable truth. Thus, we must be ever vigilant... - James Munford

“It is a sad fate for a man to die too well known to everybody else, and still unknown to himself.” - Francis Bacon

"Better the illusions that exalt us than ten thousand truths" - Aleksander Pushkin
*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~
I do not give negative Karma. I believe that all opinions are worthy of debate and discussion. Free speech is essential to the growth and advancement of each individual and all of Humankind.
Éireann
Eisteacht le gra!

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10/23/2012 05:03 AM

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Re: Trop Storm Sandy - A Potential "Perfect Storm"
Let me just once again state how unusual this is. I've been reading GLP since 2005. I can count on one hand the number of potential DOOM posts that had actual evidence which came from REAL sources that were not other paranoid schizophrenics.

OP actually links to real, scientific proof AND doesn't even guarantee a doom event - call its "potential" - can you imagine if everyone on GLP stopped masturbating to doom and posted in a non-batshit crazy manner like this?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 19099851

That's our Doorbert :) Why we love him :D

And yes. I agree with you, AC. Manufactured doom annoys me. I'd rather not have to wade through pages and pages of babble and then read more documents, and research those resources only to find out that it's all bs.

Morning folks :)

coffee4
Éireann~

Eisteacht le gra! ~ArunaLuna (Translation from Gaelic: "Listen to Love!")

"And I sincerely believe, with you, that banking establishments are more dangerous than standing armies; and that the principle of spending money to be paid by posterity, under the name of funding, is but swindling futurity on a large scale." - Thomas Jefferson, from a Letter to John Taylor written in 1816

"Unfortunately, it is in the nature of man to tinker - even with immutable truth. Thus, we must be ever vigilant... - James Munford

“It is a sad fate for a man to die too well known to everybody else, and still unknown to himself.” - Francis Bacon

"Better the illusions that exalt us than ten thousand truths" - Aleksander Pushkin
*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~
I do not give negative Karma. I believe that all opinions are worthy of debate and discussion. Free speech is essential to the growth and advancement of each individual and all of Humankind.
DoorBert (OP)

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10/23/2012 05:05 AM
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Re: Trop Storm Sandy - A Potential "Perfect Storm"
Another thing to watch out for with Sandy are quakes.

I have seen it many times when a tropical cyclone is near a fault zone, a quake can be triggered.

It seems to be mostly when atmospheric pressure drops quickly.

Either by a TC moving quickly into a fault zone or when it rapidly intensifies.

The Carib Plate has been very unstable of late with lots of small to moderate quakes from Hispaniola to Virgin Islands.
DoorBert (OP)

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10/23/2012 05:06 AM
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Re: Trop Storm Sandy - A Potential "Perfect Storm"
Let me just once again state how unusual this is. I've been reading GLP since 2005. I can count on one hand the number of potential DOOM posts that had actual evidence which came from REAL sources that were not other paranoid schizophrenics.

OP actually links to real, scientific proof AND doesn't even guarantee a doom event - call its "potential" - can you imagine if everyone on GLP stopped masturbating to doom and posted in a non-batshit crazy manner like this?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 19099851

That's our Doorbert :) Why we love him :D

And yes. I agree with you, AC. Manufactured doom annoys me. I'd rather not have to wade through pages and pages of babble and then read more documents, and research those resources only to find out that it's all bs.

Morning folks :)

coffee4
 Quoting: Éireann


Morning Eireann and much thanks!!

coffeecup
DoorBert (OP)

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10/23/2012 05:08 AM
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Re: Trop Storm Sandy - A Potential "Perfect Storm"
000
WTNT43 KNHC 230905
TCDAT3

TROPICAL STORM SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 4...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
500 AM EDT TUE OCT 23 2012

BANDS OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE APPEARS TO
BE VERY LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE INNER-CORE STRUCTURE DURING
THE PAST 12-18 HOURS...AS AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS INDICATED THAT
SANDY STILL HAS A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER.
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE T2.5...AND THE INITIAL WIND
SPEED IS MAINTAINED AT 40 KT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY EN ROUTE TO THE CYCLONE AND SHOULD
PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THE INTENSITY OF THE STORM.

SANDY APPEARS TO BE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A FASTER NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
MOTION BEGINNING TODAY AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF SANDY
WEAKENS. THE CENTER OF SANDY SHOULD MOVE NEAR OR OVER
JAMAICA ON WEDNESDAY AND APPROACH EASTERN CUBA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 96 HOURS WITH
A TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. BY DAY 5...HOWEVER...THERE IS
SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...WITH THE ECMWF ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE HWRF ALONG THE
EASTERN SIDE. THE GFS IS CLOSER TO THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE AND THE NHC FORECAST IS BASED ON THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
AND THE FLORIDA STATE ENSEMBLE AT DAYS 4 AND 5.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CONSISTING OF LOW SHEAR...WARM WATERS...
AND A MOIST ATMOSPHERE...FAVOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. IN FACT...ALL OF THE INTENSITY MODELS BRING
SANDY TO HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS AND SO DOES
THE NHC FORECAST. AFTER SANDY CROSSES EASTERN CUBA...THE
VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY...HOWEVER THE
GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT A DEEPENING CYCLONE...POSSIBLY DUE TO SOME
BAROCLINIC FORCING. THE NHC FORECAST STILL INDICATES THE SYSTEM
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL LATE IN THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS IN THE GLOBAL MODELS THAT SANDY COULD BE TRANSITIONING
TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AROUND THAT TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 13.3N 78.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 14.1N 78.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 15.6N 77.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 24/1800Z 17.6N 77.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 25/0600Z 19.6N 77.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 26/0600Z 24.0N 76.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 27/0600Z 26.8N 74.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 28/0600Z 30.0N 71.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...SUBTROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Last Edited by DoorBert on 10/23/2012 05:16 AM
rocky/endtime truths

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10/23/2012 05:09 AM
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Re: Trop Storm Sandy - A Potential "Perfect Storm"
Good Morning DoorBert,

I was in Orlando FL during the perfect storm of 91, Thousands of cars had hail damage, then the wind and property damage. The storm was scary.
Anonymous Coward
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10/23/2012 05:13 AM
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Re: Trop Storm Sandy - A Potential "Perfect Storm"
[link to www.weather.com]

jerkit OP
DoorBert (OP)

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10/23/2012 05:14 AM
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Re: Trop Storm Sandy - A Potential "Perfect Storm"
Good Morning DoorBert,

I was in Orlando FL during the perfect storm of 91, Thousands of cars had hail damage, then the wind and property damage. The storm was scary.
 Quoting: rocky/endtime truths


Morning Rocky cheers

Hopefully this turns out to sea; but Euro has been very consistent for the last 4 runs with its track.
Anonymous Coward
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10/23/2012 05:14 AM
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Re: Trop Storm Sandy - A Potential "Perfect Storm"
Yes it is, Doorbert. I will go get the links, but forecasters are already having a cow over the forecast models they are seeing. A hurricane with snow is what some have been calling it.
 Quoting: Éireann


Your statement reminded me of the storm that was dubbed a "snowicane" back in 2010 in the northeast. It was different type of weather systems that collided.... but it was pretty bad.
Anonymous Coward
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10/23/2012 05:16 AM
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Re: Trop Storm Sandy - A Potential "Perfect Storm"
Yes it is, Doorbert. I will go get the links, but forecasters are already having a cow over the forecast models they are seeing. A hurricane with snow is what some have been calling it.
 Quoting: Éireann


Your statement reminded me of the storm that was dubbed a "snowicane" back in 2010 in the northeast. It was different type of weather systems that collided.... but it was pretty bad.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 17338098


Sorry, forgot to include the link:

[link to en.wikipedia.org]
Anonymous Coward
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10/23/2012 05:21 AM
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Re: Trop Storm Sandy - A Potential "Perfect Storm"
[link to www.weather.com]

Yeah looks like a direct hit for the eastern seaboard. bsflag
Éireann
Eisteacht le gra!

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10/23/2012 05:23 AM

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Re: Trop Storm Sandy - A Potential "Perfect Storm"
Yes it is, Doorbert. I will go get the links, but forecasters are already having a cow over the forecast models they are seeing. A hurricane with snow is what some have been calling it.
 Quoting: Éireann


Your statement reminded me of the storm that was dubbed a "snowicane" back in 2010 in the northeast. It was different type of weather systems that collided.... but it was pretty bad.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 17338098

Kind of like a Nor'easter only worse. Where I grew up in Upstate New York, those kinds of storms would just dump loads of snow on us. And the wind was SO cold and it would just howl.

Basically, most models are showing Sandy going back out to sea and missing Florida, but if I could find that damn link to a story I was reading earlier on Sandy, the forecaster was saying that there was a possibility of her taking aim at the north eastern seaboard later in her track.
Éireann~

Eisteacht le gra! ~ArunaLuna (Translation from Gaelic: "Listen to Love!")

"And I sincerely believe, with you, that banking establishments are more dangerous than standing armies; and that the principle of spending money to be paid by posterity, under the name of funding, is but swindling futurity on a large scale." - Thomas Jefferson, from a Letter to John Taylor written in 1816

"Unfortunately, it is in the nature of man to tinker - even with immutable truth. Thus, we must be ever vigilant... - James Munford

“It is a sad fate for a man to die too well known to everybody else, and still unknown to himself.” - Francis Bacon

"Better the illusions that exalt us than ten thousand truths" - Aleksander Pushkin
*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~
I do not give negative Karma. I believe that all opinions are worthy of debate and discussion. Free speech is essential to the growth and advancement of each individual and all of Humankind.
DoorBert (OP)

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10/23/2012 05:24 AM
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Re: Trop Storm Sandy - A Potential "Perfect Storm"
Joe Bastardi:

ECMWF strikes Long Island with 948 mb 27.96 hurricane 2-3 foot snows on west side mtns of pa into wva. Defies GFS..again!

Canadian takes 939 mb hurricane into NYC Monday from southeast as it will not allow escape. Euro through 120 much further w than gfs

Still think pattern favors the capture, so until Friday, its game on as GFS has missed many storms to the southeast with bogus interactions

[link to twitter.com]


ECMWF forecasts record low pressure for north atlantic this far north at 216 hours 39n 71 928 mb Weatherbell site

[link to twitter.com]
Anonymous Coward
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10/23/2012 05:28 AM
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Re: Trop Storm Sandy - A Potential "Perfect Storm"
Accuweather has posted about the potential for this storm to be a monster for the East Coast early next week:

[link to www.accuweather.com]
Éireann
Eisteacht le gra!

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10/23/2012 05:29 AM

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Re: Trop Storm Sandy - A Potential "Perfect Storm"
Latest Euro has this heading to Long Island as a 950mb system = Cat 3

[link to moe.met.fsu.edu]

NHC considers Euro as the most reliable model.
 Quoting: DoorBert

Unlike some people who think weather.com is all the weather news you ever need. It's a commercial money making business. They make money off the news. Of course they aren't going to spill the beans on what Sandy's gonna do once she hits the upper Atlantic. Heebus Jeebus.
Éireann~

Eisteacht le gra! ~ArunaLuna (Translation from Gaelic: "Listen to Love!")

"And I sincerely believe, with you, that banking establishments are more dangerous than standing armies; and that the principle of spending money to be paid by posterity, under the name of funding, is but swindling futurity on a large scale." - Thomas Jefferson, from a Letter to John Taylor written in 1816

"Unfortunately, it is in the nature of man to tinker - even with immutable truth. Thus, we must be ever vigilant... - James Munford

“It is a sad fate for a man to die too well known to everybody else, and still unknown to himself.” - Francis Bacon

"Better the illusions that exalt us than ten thousand truths" - Aleksander Pushkin
*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~
I do not give negative Karma. I believe that all opinions are worthy of debate and discussion. Free speech is essential to the growth and advancement of each individual and all of Humankind.
Éireann
Eisteacht le gra!

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10/23/2012 05:33 AM

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Re: Trop Storm Sandy - A Potential "Perfect Storm"
Accuweather has posted about the potential for this storm to be a monster for the East Coast early next week:

[link to www.accuweather.com]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 26099042

Thank you! That isn't the link I'm looking for, but the information is still what I was reading. Great post!

From the link:

How Sandy tracks Friday and beyond is dependent on several weather factors, which at this time are very complex and creating solutions that range from a tropical nightmare to a miss for the East Coast.

The worst case scenario for the East Coast involves Sandy paralleling the coast from Florida to the Carolinas this weekend before being drawn inland into the mid-Atlantic or New England early next week.
 Quoting:

Éireann~

Eisteacht le gra! ~ArunaLuna (Translation from Gaelic: "Listen to Love!")

"And I sincerely believe, with you, that banking establishments are more dangerous than standing armies; and that the principle of spending money to be paid by posterity, under the name of funding, is but swindling futurity on a large scale." - Thomas Jefferson, from a Letter to John Taylor written in 1816

"Unfortunately, it is in the nature of man to tinker - even with immutable truth. Thus, we must be ever vigilant... - James Munford

“It is a sad fate for a man to die too well known to everybody else, and still unknown to himself.” - Francis Bacon

"Better the illusions that exalt us than ten thousand truths" - Aleksander Pushkin
*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~
I do not give negative Karma. I believe that all opinions are worthy of debate and discussion. Free speech is essential to the growth and advancement of each individual and all of Humankind.
Éireann
Eisteacht le gra!

User ID: 26010953
United States
10/23/2012 05:36 AM

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Re: Trop Storm Sandy - A Potential "Perfect Storm"
Found it!!!

[link to www.v8buick.com]

Yes!!! It's a car forum. What...you think girls aren't into cars? chuckle

Edit: Oh.. I guess I could have just given y'all the link the poster put in his post.

1doh1

[link to tropwxhq.wordpress.com]

Last Edited by Éireann on 10/23/2012 05:37 AM
Éireann~

Eisteacht le gra! ~ArunaLuna (Translation from Gaelic: "Listen to Love!")

"And I sincerely believe, with you, that banking establishments are more dangerous than standing armies; and that the principle of spending money to be paid by posterity, under the name of funding, is but swindling futurity on a large scale." - Thomas Jefferson, from a Letter to John Taylor written in 1816

"Unfortunately, it is in the nature of man to tinker - even with immutable truth. Thus, we must be ever vigilant... - James Munford

“It is a sad fate for a man to die too well known to everybody else, and still unknown to himself.” - Francis Bacon

"Better the illusions that exalt us than ten thousand truths" - Aleksander Pushkin
*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~
I do not give negative Karma. I believe that all opinions are worthy of debate and discussion. Free speech is essential to the growth and advancement of each individual and all of Humankind.
DoorBert (OP)

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10/23/2012 05:45 AM
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Re: Trop Storm Sandy - A Potential "Perfect Storm"
Sandy is going to town now.

Been firing a massive hot tower for the last 4 hours just SE of the center of circulation.

[link to www.nrlmry.navy.mil]

[link to www.ssd.noaa.gov]

[link to rammb.cira.colostate.edu]
DoorBert (OP)

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10/23/2012 05:53 AM
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Re: Trop Storm Sandy - A Potential "Perfect Storm"
If Sandy phases with the cold-front or not, one thing for sure is there will be a large upper-level low to the east of Sandy when Sandy is in the north Bahamas.

This will cause Sandy to intensify rapidly since it will create ideal upper-level ventilation.

This is referred to as a poleward outflow channel by the mets.

If Sandy stays more west at this time, it'll be in the Gulf Stream and have a lot of juice to ramp up as well.

[link to weather.rap.ucar.edu]
Anonymous Coward
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10/23/2012 05:57 AM
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Re: Trop Storm Sandy - A Potential "Perfect Storm"
Accuweather has posted about the potential for this storm to be a monster for the East Coast early next week:

[link to www.accuweather.com]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 26099042

Thank you! That isn't the link I'm looking for, but the information is still what I was reading. Great post!

From the link:

How Sandy tracks Friday and beyond is dependent on several weather factors, which at this time are very complex and creating solutions that range from a tropical nightmare to a miss for the East Coast.

The worst case scenario for the East Coast involves Sandy paralleling the coast from Florida to the Carolinas this weekend before being drawn inland into the mid-Atlantic or New England early next week.
 Quoting:

 Quoting: Éireann


You are welcome! hf
DoorBert (OP)

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10/23/2012 05:59 AM
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Re: Trop Storm Sandy - A Potential "Perfect Storm"
Tons of hot water to work with well into the Bahamas

[link to rammb.cira.colostate.edu]
Devoted Follower
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10/23/2012 05:59 AM
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Re: Trop Storm Sandy - A Potential "Perfect Storm"
Please God let this turn into a massive global super storm...
Éireann
Eisteacht le gra!

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10/23/2012 06:06 AM

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Re: Trop Storm Sandy - A Potential "Perfect Storm"
Please God let this turn into a massive global super storm...
 Quoting: Devoted Follower 25606271

damned

Are you nuts?
Éireann~

Eisteacht le gra! ~ArunaLuna (Translation from Gaelic: "Listen to Love!")

"And I sincerely believe, with you, that banking establishments are more dangerous than standing armies; and that the principle of spending money to be paid by posterity, under the name of funding, is but swindling futurity on a large scale." - Thomas Jefferson, from a Letter to John Taylor written in 1816

"Unfortunately, it is in the nature of man to tinker - even with immutable truth. Thus, we must be ever vigilant... - James Munford

“It is a sad fate for a man to die too well known to everybody else, and still unknown to himself.” - Francis Bacon

"Better the illusions that exalt us than ten thousand truths" - Aleksander Pushkin
*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~
I do not give negative Karma. I believe that all opinions are worthy of debate and discussion. Free speech is essential to the growth and advancement of each individual and all of Humankind.

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