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Trop Storm Sandy - A Potential "Perfect Storm"

 
DoorBert (OP)

User ID: 870568
United States
10/23/2012 11:28 AM
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Re: Trop Storm Sandy - A Potential "Perfect Storm"
Main difference still between ECMWF and GFS earlier today is the amplitude of the Pac NW ridge & deeper E. trough

[link to twitter.com]
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 8298598
France
10/23/2012 11:31 AM
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Re: Trop Storm Sandy - A Potential "Perfect Storm"
I GUESS IT PAYS TO HAVE LOTS OF FRIENDS ON GLP...

THEN YOU GET CRAP LIKE THIS PINNED..

THIS SITE GETS MORE LAUGHABLE ALL THE TIME...
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 25552619


drama
whiteangel

User ID: 1775746
United States
10/23/2012 11:54 AM

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Re: Trop Storm Sandy - A Potential "Perfect Storm"
Weather Chan just covered the potential of the storm now. Pretty much stating what OP did in the beginning, depending on the track it does take.
"If voting made a difference they wouldn't let us do it" -Mark Twain
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 25010694
10/23/2012 12:12 PM
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Re: Trop Storm Sandy - A Potential "Perfect Storm"

A storm for the ages? Perhaps.

There are very few instances when I have posted a headline like the one in this blog. Hype is not a tool I use to get the attention of my audience unless it is warranted


First off, you always post breaking news, and lots of flashy exlamation marks on your shit, because you are a fucking attention whore.



have not seen since as far back as 1991 with the "Perfect Storm".

And that part is just fucking stupid back in 1991
DoorBert (OP)

User ID: 857877
United States
10/23/2012 12:28 PM
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Re: Trop Storm Sandy - A Potential "Perfect Storm"
06Z HWRF is showing Cat 1 winds along the Florida Coast

[link to moe.met.fsu.edu]
momma coop

User ID: 20442533
United States
10/23/2012 12:32 PM
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Re: Trop Storm Sandy - A Potential "Perfect Storm"
Hey DB, received this update and thought I would share.

Executive Summary
• Potential for a very dangerous autumn storm system to affect the
region early next week.
• This storm will be associated with what is currently Tropical Storm
Sandy. This storm system will bring multiple potential threats to the
region.
• Strong damaging wind gusts, extremely heavy rainfall, major inland
flooding and major coastal flooding are all possible with the storm.
• The track of the storm will determine the area which is impacted;
there is considerable uncertainty with the storm track this far in
advance of the event.
• Next briefing package will be issued on Wednesday, October 24
th
.
• Monitor our website at weather.gov/phi


[link to www.erh.noaa.gov]
"I believe there's a hero in all of us, that keeps us honest, gives us strength, makes us noble, and finally allows us to die with pride, even though sometimes we have to be steady, and give up the thing we want the most. Even our dreams."

"Because you are you"
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 13974494
United States
10/23/2012 12:46 PM
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Re: Trop Storm Sandy - A Potential "Perfect Storm"
Total bullshit and nice way to advertise that site with very little traffic peace
DoorBert (OP)

User ID: 870568
United States
10/23/2012 12:47 PM
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Re: Trop Storm Sandy - A Potential "Perfect Storm"
Hey DB, received this update and thought I would share.

Executive Summary
• Potential for a very dangerous autumn storm system to affect the
region early next week.
• This storm will be associated with what is currently Tropical Storm
Sandy. This storm system will bring multiple potential threats to the
region.
• Strong damaging wind gusts, extremely heavy rainfall, major inland
flooding and major coastal flooding are all possible with the storm.
• The track of the storm will determine the area which is impacted;
there is considerable uncertainty with the storm track this far in
advance of the event.
• Next briefing package will be issued on Wednesday, October 24
th
.
• Monitor our website at weather.gov/phi


[link to www.erh.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: momma coop



Much thanks Momma

hfhfhf

Are you doing any preps yet?
DoorBert (OP)

User ID: 857877
United States
10/23/2012 12:48 PM
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Re: Trop Storm Sandy - A Potential "Perfect Storm"
Hurricane warning issued for Jamaica as strengthening Sandy approaches island

[link to www.nhc.noaa.gov]
Frater

User ID: 18312371
United States
10/23/2012 12:56 PM

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Re: Trop Storm Sandy - A Potential "Perfect Storm"
I don't want another hurricane, the one last year made a big mess but also bought me new heating equipment; I'm on Long island.

Anyway, i don't know why you guys are making a big deal over Sandy, the computer models all still show it staying way clear of the coast and only briefly hitting a Cat 1 as it passes through jamaica and then Cuba, after that back to TS.

It's good info to know about but it really doesn't feel like doom.

Heres the data from cool heads:

[link to www.wunderground.com]

Frater
LVX!
momma coop

User ID: 20442533
United States
10/23/2012 01:00 PM
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Re: Trop Storm Sandy - A Potential "Perfect Storm"
Hey DB, received this update and thought I would share.

Executive Summary
• Potential for a very dangerous autumn storm system to affect the
region early next week.
• This storm will be associated with what is currently Tropical Storm
Sandy. This storm system will bring multiple potential threats to the
region.
• Strong damaging wind gusts, extremely heavy rainfall, major inland
flooding and major coastal flooding are all possible with the storm.
• The track of the storm will determine the area which is impacted;
there is considerable uncertainty with the storm track this far in
advance of the event.
• Next briefing package will be issued on Wednesday, October 24
th
.
• Monitor our website at weather.gov/phi


[link to www.erh.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: momma coop



Much thanks Momma

hfhfhf

Are you doing any preps yet?
 Quoting: DoorBert


I am always ready for hurricanes. The only thing I save for the last minute is the junk food. I like to munch on junk while I keep track of things.
"I believe there's a hero in all of us, that keeps us honest, gives us strength, makes us noble, and finally allows us to die with pride, even though sometimes we have to be steady, and give up the thing we want the most. Even our dreams."

"Because you are you"
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 26034889
United States
10/23/2012 01:08 PM
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Re: Trop Storm Sandy - A Potential "Perfect Storm"
Yes it is, Doorbert. I will go get the links, but forecasters are already having a cow over the forecast models they are seeing. A hurricane with snow is what some have been calling it.
 Quoting: Éireann


spellsd: b l i z z a r d
Zombietard

User ID: 26144986
Argentina
10/23/2012 01:14 PM
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Re: Trop Storm Sandy - A Potential "Perfect Storm"
Stormtards hf
Ice
ice

User ID: 13947158
United States
10/23/2012 01:19 PM

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Re: Trop Storm Sandy - A Potential "Perfect Storm"
This is a fish storm

Nothing else
Chill - Enjoy - Relax
alexisj9

User ID: 1376880
United Kingdom
10/23/2012 01:23 PM

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Re: Trop Storm Sandy - A Potential "Perfect Storm"
Good Morning DB! First, thanks for pointing out a possibility but...............

For once I have to disagree with you.naughty There will be no weather doom with this storm. The most likely tracks have this heading out to the Atlantic Ocean. Due to a somewhat strong cold front to swing through the east coast late this weekend, it will both weaken and push the tropical system further out to sea. IF the systems combine, once again, it will happen over ocean waters and momentum will push it further east. The reason there is no coverage on the news is because it is HIGHLY unlikely this will affect land. However, this should be a MASSIVE storm over the ocean water and will be interesting to see what kind of info meteorologists gather by the time the storm is over.

Sorry folks, no matter how you look at it, the worst you will see is a little wind and maybe a lot of rain. 99% confident!

FYI, I have lived on the east coast in MD for over 30 years and have always been an affluent weather watcher.

Also, The so called "perfect storm" only produced winds of 75mph which were located 100's of miles of the coast. This is a likely scenario. Again, IF this does happen again, it will not happen anywhere near land. It's EXTREMELY unlikely that any pressure system over LAND will absorb a TROPICAL system over water!

hf
 Quoting: MARsSPEED


The tail end of your fish storms normally hit here pretty stronge still. Let's hope not this one.
Sul-Americano
User ID: 1063827
Brazil
10/23/2012 01:25 PM
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Re: Trop Storm Sandy - A Potential "Perfect Storm"
This is the PERFECT DAY for DOOMERS!!!
- A storm of the ages heading to NE USA;
- Market beautifully Crashing;
- good chance of "x" solar flares;
The cherry on the top of the cake would be a major earthquake in western USA or, even better, near New York City!!!!!
5a5a5a5a5a5a
DoorBert (OP)

User ID: 857877
United States
10/23/2012 01:25 PM
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Re: Trop Storm Sandy - A Potential "Perfect Storm"
UH-OH

gasp


PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
959 AM EDT TUE OCT 23 2012

VALID 12Z SAT OCT 27 2012 - 12Z TUE OCT 30 2012


...POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR STORM OVER THE MID ATLANTIC & NORTHEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK...

UPDATED THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7
USING THE 00Z/23 EUROPEAN CENTRE ENSEMBLE MEAN, WITH A SMALL
INCORPORATION OF THE 00Z/23 EUROPEAN CENTRE DETERMINISTIC MODEL TO
LEND MORE DEFINITION TO THE SYNOPTIC GRADIENTS ACROSS THE NATION.
USED THE MOST RECENT FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
FOR THE TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM SANDY THROUGH DAY 5, WITH A CURVE
TO THE NORTHWEST DAYS 6 AND 7
BASED ON THE ECENS MEAN. THE 00Z/23
GEM GLOBAL CONTINUES TO CLUSTER WITH THE ECMWF FOR THE BEHAVIOR OF
SANDY ONCE IT TRANSITIONS TO A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM, INDICATING THAT
THE CYCLONE GETS PULLED BACK TOWARD THE SHARP UPPER TROUGH CLOSING
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THE ECMWF AND GEM GLOBAL HAVE SEVERAL RUNS
OF CONTINUITY NOW WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS EVENT, WITH THE
DETERMINISTIC GFS LESS STABLE. THERE HAVE BEEN GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF/GEM CAMP FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS
OF MODEL CYCLES
, PUTTING THE DETERMINISTIC GFS SOLUTIONS IN A
BROADER FRAMEWORK WITH THEIR TRACK OF SANDY WELL OVER THE OPEN
ATLANTIC. WILL BE UPDATING THE TRACK OF SANDY THROUGH DAY 5 FOR
THE FINAL PACKAGE WITH THE ADVENT OF THE NEW NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER FORECAST, AND ITS BEHAVIOR AS A SUBTROPICAL LOW THEREAFTER
AS PER OUR HOTLINE COORDINATION.


CISCO
abeliever

User ID: 17868616
United States
10/23/2012 01:29 PM

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Re: Trop Storm Sandy - A Potential "Perfect Storm"
ARE YOU SERIOUS......

IT IS JUST A SMALL DEPRESSION...

YOU PEOPLE NEED TO CALM THE FUCK DOWN......

BECAUSE WHEN SOME THING REALLY FUCKED UP IS HAPPENING NO ONE WILL CARE......CRYIN WOLF ALL THE TIME....

SETTLE DOWN,,,SMOKE A FATTY,,,,

THERE IS ALREADY ENOUGH REAL DOOM OUT THERE...

NO NEED TO BE DISTRACTED WITH THIS CRAP....
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 25552619

SORRY ..i HAVE NEVER BOOKED A LAST MINUTE FLIGHT...

AND PROBABLY NEVER WILL...

LAST MINUTE BOOKERS DESERVE TO BE STUCK...NO?????

DOSN'T SOUND LIKE THEY ARE PREPARED BOOKING LAST MIN FLIGHT...LOL...



People are calm. They are also wise to be alert. Have you ever tried to book an airline flight at last minute to get in or out because of weather, only to be stuck at an airport? Advance information enables people to make wise choices for plan B.
 Quoting: abeliever

 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 25552619


SORRY ..i HAVE NEVER BOOKED A LAST MINUTE FLIGHT...

AND PROBABLY NEVER WILL...

LAST MINUTE BOOKERS DESERVE TO BE STUCK...NO?????

DOSN'T SOUND LIKE THEY ARE PREPARED BOOKING LAST MIN FLIGHT...LOL...
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 25552619


I don't think you are listening. The whole idea is to be prepared. Some how you seem angry and wanting to stir up trouble by complaining and accusing. You won't find that here. Go to another thread.

This thread is just to help people be prepared. OK?
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 726900
United States
10/23/2012 01:31 PM
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Re: Trop Storm Sandy - A Potential "Perfect Storm"
and what of haarp ?
Sul-Americano
User ID: 1063827
Brazil
10/23/2012 01:31 PM
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Re: Trop Storm Sandy - A Potential "Perfect Storm"
...

SORRY ..i HAVE NEVER BOOKED A LAST MINUTE FLIGHT...

AND PROBABLY NEVER WILL...

LAST MINUTE BOOKERS DESERVE TO BE STUCK...NO?????

DOSN'T SOUND LIKE THEY ARE PREPARED BOOKING LAST MIN FLIGHT...LOL...



People are calm. They are also wise to be alert. Have you ever tried to book an airline flight at last minute to get in or out because of weather, only to be stuck at an airport? Advance information enables people to make wise choices for plan B.
 Quoting: abeliever

 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 25552619


SORRY ..i HAVE NEVER BOOKED A LAST MINUTE FLIGHT...

AND PROBABLY NEVER WILL...

LAST MINUTE BOOKERS DESERVE TO BE STUCK...NO?????

DOSN'T SOUND LIKE THEY ARE PREPARED BOOKING LAST MIN FLIGHT...LOL...
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 25552619


I don't think you are listening. The whole idea is to be prepared. Some how you seem angry and wanting to stir up trouble by complaining and accusing. You won't find that here. Go to another thread.

This thread is just to help people be prepared. OK?
 Quoting: abeliever


I'm very well prepared. I already bought some packs of beers and popcorn!
popcorn
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1453209
United States
10/23/2012 01:37 PM
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Re: Trop Storm Sandy - A Potential "Perfect Storm"
bump
DoorBert (OP)

User ID: 870568
United States
10/23/2012 01:45 PM
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Re: Trop Storm Sandy - A Potential "Perfect Storm"
Sandy a potential threat to New England

Wind shear is forecast to be in the low to moderate range, 5 - 20 knots, through Thursday morning.

This should allow continued development of Sandy, and rapid development is possible.

The 8 am EDT SHIPS model forecast predicted a 62% chance that Sandy's winds would increase by 30 mph over a 24-hour period.

However, the Hurricane Hunters found this morning that the center at 5,000 feet was displaced 7 miles from the surface center, and there was no indication that Sandy was building an eyewall, so I expect that the earliest Sandy could become a hurricane is Wednesday morning.

The 5 am EDT NHC Wind Probability Forecast gave a 49% chance that Sandy would be a hurricane by 2 pm EDT Wednesday, when the center should be close to Jamaica.

Wind shear will rise to a high 25 - 30 knots by Thursday and the storm will have to cross the rugged terrain of Cuba, which should weaken Sandy's winds by 20 - 30 mph.

By Friday, Sandy should be over warm waters in the Central Bahamas, but only modest re-intensification by 10 - 20 mph should occur, due to high wind shear.

At that point, a very complicated meteorological situation unfolds, as Sandy interacts with a trough of low pressure approaching the U.S. East Coast.

The trough may steer Sandy northeastwards, out to sea, as predicted by the GFS, HWRF, and GFDL models.

However, an alternative solution, shown by the ECMWF and NOGAPS models, is for the trough to inject a large amount of energy into Sandy, converting it to a powerful subtropical storm that hits New England early next week with a central pressure of 948 mb and winds near hurricane-force.

The ECMWF and NOGAPS models are off by a full day in their predictions of when the storm would arrive, with the 06Z NOGAPS model predicting Sandy's heavy rains will arrive on North Carolina's Outer Banks on Sunday, then spread into the mid-Atlantic and New England on Sunday.

The 00Z ECMWF model forecast predicts that Sandy will arrive in New England on Monday night.

Stay tuned.

[link to www.wunderground.com]
Sul-Americano
User ID: 1063827
Brazil
10/23/2012 01:46 PM
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Re: Trop Storm Sandy - A Potential "Perfect Storm"
ATTENTION!!!!!!!!!!!!
According to this chart, new yorkers have less than a week to EVACUATE the city!!!!!!!!damned
[link to www.weatherzone.com.au]
DoorBert (OP)

User ID: 870568
United States
10/23/2012 01:47 PM
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Re: Trop Storm Sandy - A Potential "Perfect Storm"
ATTENTION!!!!!!!!!!!!
According to this chart, new yorkers have less than a week to EVACUATE the city!!!!!!!!damned
[link to www.weatherzone.com.au]
 Quoting: Sul-Americano 1063827


Oh Shit
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 16219948
United States
10/23/2012 01:50 PM
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Re: Trop Storm Sandy - A Potential "Perfect Storm"
WATCH OUT BERMUDA! PUT THOSE SHORTS AWAY AND PUT ON SOME LONG PANTS FOR GOODNESS SAKE.
Sul-Americano
User ID: 1063827
Brazil
10/23/2012 01:51 PM
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Re: Trop Storm Sandy - A Potential "Perfect Storm"
Something is gonna happen no doubt
drevil
DoorBert (OP)

User ID: 857877
United States
10/23/2012 01:54 PM
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Re: Trop Storm Sandy - A Potential "Perfect Storm"
Something is gonna happen no doubt
drevil
 Quoting: Sul-Americano 1063827


Been hearing some met discussions.

They are pretty confident since GFS is showing a negative-tilt trough, Sandy will indeed recurve NW into New England.

Only question is how Sandy will do over the mountains of Cuba.
DoorBert (OP)

User ID: 857877
United States
10/23/2012 01:58 PM
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Re: Trop Storm Sandy - A Potential "Perfect Storm"
Joe Bastardi

GFS feedback problems always seem to be in day 4-7 period. new 72 hour 75 miles northwest of yesterdays 96

[link to twitter.com]


Canadian now goes to "Wilma" scenario as it hands hurricane off to trough to east forms noreaster in coastal waters.

[link to twitter.com]
Lady Jane SmithModerator
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10/23/2012 02:15 PM

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Re: Trop Storm Sandy - A Potential "Perfect Storm"
This just now landed on my busy radar. Very interesting & worth watching as I live in the Mid Atlantic.

Thank you, Doorbert.
Life is karma and karma always reflects both past and present circumstance. Our time here is short, so choose carefully and behave well, for all of your tomorrows are presently being decided.

"Don't die on a small cross..." Saddletramp's Mom

"A fool thinks himself to be wise, but a wise man knows himself to be a fool."
-- William Shakespeare, born April 23, 1564.

Killer Bunny mockingjay
DoorBert (OP)

User ID: 857877
United States
10/23/2012 02:19 PM
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Re: Trop Storm Sandy - A Potential "Perfect Storm"
This just now landed on my busy radar. Very interesting & worth watching as I live in the Mid Atlantic.

Thank you, Doorbert.
 Quoting: Lady Jane Smith


hfhfhf

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