Trop Storm Sandy - A Potential "Perfect Storm" | |
DoorBert (OP) User ID: 870568 United States 10/23/2012 04:46 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Latest Euro has this heading to Long Island as a 950mb system = Cat 3 [link to moe.met.fsu.edu] NHC considers Euro as the most reliable model. |
DoorBert (OP) User ID: 870568 United States 10/23/2012 04:49 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 19099851 United States 10/23/2012 04:53 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 25836837 Romania 10/23/2012 04:56 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
DoorBert (OP) User ID: 870568 United States 10/23/2012 04:57 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 19099851 United States 10/23/2012 04:58 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Let me just once again state how unusual this is. I've been reading GLP since 2005. I can count on one hand the number of potential DOOM posts that had actual evidence which came from REAL sources that were not other paranoid schizophrenics. OP actually links to real, scientific proof AND doesn't even guarantee a doom event - call its "potential" - can you imagine if everyone on GLP stopped masturbating to doom and posted in a non-batshit crazy manner like this? |
DoorBert (OP) User ID: 870568 United States 10/23/2012 04:59 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Morning DB ! You're up early as usual I see ! :) Quoting: subzero86 This storm really has the potential to do some serious damage. I hope it dies down when before it hits the US mainland ! Morning SZ86 If it was any other model than the Euro, I won't worry. Something to really keep an eye on. On another note, what did you think of the debates? I tried to watch but kept nodding off. |
Éireann User ID: 26010953 United States 10/23/2012 05:00 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Yes it is, Doorbert. I will go get the links, but forecasters are already having a cow over the forecast models they are seeing. A hurricane with snow is what some have been calling it. Eireann~ I am crucified with Christ: nevertheless I live; yet not I, but Christ liveth in me: and the life which I now live in the flesh I live by the faith of the Son of God, who loved me, and gave himself for me. - Galatians 2:20 |
Éireann User ID: 26010953 United States 10/23/2012 05:03 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Let me just once again state how unusual this is. I've been reading GLP since 2005. I can count on one hand the number of potential DOOM posts that had actual evidence which came from REAL sources that were not other paranoid schizophrenics. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 19099851 OP actually links to real, scientific proof AND doesn't even guarantee a doom event - call its "potential" - can you imagine if everyone on GLP stopped masturbating to doom and posted in a non-batshit crazy manner like this? That's our Doorbert :) Why we love him :D And yes. I agree with you, AC. Manufactured doom annoys me. I'd rather not have to wade through pages and pages of babble and then read more documents, and research those resources only to find out that it's all bs. Morning folks :) Eireann~ I am crucified with Christ: nevertheless I live; yet not I, but Christ liveth in me: and the life which I now live in the flesh I live by the faith of the Son of God, who loved me, and gave himself for me. - Galatians 2:20 |
DoorBert (OP) User ID: 870568 United States 10/23/2012 05:05 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I have seen it many times when a tropical cyclone is near a fault zone, a quake can be triggered. It seems to be mostly when atmospheric pressure drops quickly. Either by a TC moving quickly into a fault zone or when it rapidly intensifies. The Carib Plate has been very unstable of late with lots of small to moderate quakes from Hispaniola to Virgin Islands. |
DoorBert (OP) User ID: 857877 United States 10/23/2012 05:06 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Let me just once again state how unusual this is. I've been reading GLP since 2005. I can count on one hand the number of potential DOOM posts that had actual evidence which came from REAL sources that were not other paranoid schizophrenics. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 19099851 OP actually links to real, scientific proof AND doesn't even guarantee a doom event - call its "potential" - can you imagine if everyone on GLP stopped masturbating to doom and posted in a non-batshit crazy manner like this? That's our Doorbert :) Why we love him :D And yes. I agree with you, AC. Manufactured doom annoys me. I'd rather not have to wade through pages and pages of babble and then read more documents, and research those resources only to find out that it's all bs. Morning folks :) Morning Eireann and much thanks!! |
DoorBert (OP) User ID: 870568 United States 10/23/2012 05:08 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | 000 WTNT43 KNHC 230905 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 4...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012 500 AM EDT TUE OCT 23 2012 BANDS OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE APPEARS TO BE VERY LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE INNER-CORE STRUCTURE DURING THE PAST 12-18 HOURS...AS AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS INDICATED THAT SANDY STILL HAS A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE T2.5...AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS MAINTAINED AT 40 KT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY EN ROUTE TO THE CYCLONE AND SHOULD PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THE INTENSITY OF THE STORM. SANDY APPEARS TO BE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A FASTER NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION BEGINNING TODAY AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF SANDY WEAKENS. THE CENTER OF SANDY SHOULD MOVE NEAR OR OVER JAMAICA ON WEDNESDAY AND APPROACH EASTERN CUBA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 96 HOURS WITH A TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. BY DAY 5...HOWEVER...THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...WITH THE ECMWF ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE HWRF ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE. THE GFS IS CLOSER TO THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE NHC FORECAST IS BASED ON THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE FLORIDA STATE ENSEMBLE AT DAYS 4 AND 5. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CONSISTING OF LOW SHEAR...WARM WATERS... AND A MOIST ATMOSPHERE...FAVOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN FACT...ALL OF THE INTENSITY MODELS BRING SANDY TO HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS AND SO DOES THE NHC FORECAST. AFTER SANDY CROSSES EASTERN CUBA...THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY...HOWEVER THE GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT A DEEPENING CYCLONE...POSSIBLY DUE TO SOME BAROCLINIC FORCING. THE NHC FORECAST STILL INDICATES THE SYSTEM BECOMING SUBTROPICAL LATE IN THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS IN THE GLOBAL MODELS THAT SANDY COULD BE TRANSITIONING TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AROUND THAT TIME. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 13.3N 78.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 14.1N 78.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 15.6N 77.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 17.6N 77.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 25/0600Z 19.6N 77.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 26/0600Z 24.0N 76.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 27/0600Z 26.8N 74.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 28/0600Z 30.0N 71.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...SUBTROPICAL $$ FORECASTER BROWN Last Edited by DoorBert on 10/23/2012 05:16 AM |
rocky/endtime truths User ID: 20095378 United States 10/23/2012 05:09 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 14089893 United States 10/23/2012 05:13 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
DoorBert (OP) User ID: 857877 United States 10/23/2012 05:14 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Good Morning DoorBert, Quoting: rocky/endtime truths I was in Orlando FL during the perfect storm of 91, Thousands of cars had hail damage, then the wind and property damage. The storm was scary. Morning Rocky Hopefully this turns out to sea; but Euro has been very consistent for the last 4 runs with its track. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 17338098 United States 10/23/2012 05:14 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Yes it is, Doorbert. I will go get the links, but forecasters are already having a cow over the forecast models they are seeing. A hurricane with snow is what some have been calling it. Quoting: Éireann Your statement reminded me of the storm that was dubbed a "snowicane" back in 2010 in the northeast. It was different type of weather systems that collided.... but it was pretty bad. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 17338098 United States 10/23/2012 05:16 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Yes it is, Doorbert. I will go get the links, but forecasters are already having a cow over the forecast models they are seeing. A hurricane with snow is what some have been calling it. Quoting: Éireann Your statement reminded me of the storm that was dubbed a "snowicane" back in 2010 in the northeast. It was different type of weather systems that collided.... but it was pretty bad. Sorry, forgot to include the link: [link to en.wikipedia.org] |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 14089893 United States 10/23/2012 05:21 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Éireann User ID: 26010953 United States 10/23/2012 05:23 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Yes it is, Doorbert. I will go get the links, but forecasters are already having a cow over the forecast models they are seeing. A hurricane with snow is what some have been calling it. Quoting: Éireann Your statement reminded me of the storm that was dubbed a "snowicane" back in 2010 in the northeast. It was different type of weather systems that collided.... but it was pretty bad. Kind of like a Nor'easter only worse. Where I grew up in Upstate New York, those kinds of storms would just dump loads of snow on us. And the wind was SO cold and it would just howl. Basically, most models are showing Sandy going back out to sea and missing Florida, but if I could find that damn link to a story I was reading earlier on Sandy, the forecaster was saying that there was a possibility of her taking aim at the north eastern seaboard later in her track. Eireann~ I am crucified with Christ: nevertheless I live; yet not I, but Christ liveth in me: and the life which I now live in the flesh I live by the faith of the Son of God, who loved me, and gave himself for me. - Galatians 2:20 |
DoorBert (OP) User ID: 857877 United States 10/23/2012 05:24 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | ECMWF strikes Long Island with 948 mb 27.96 hurricane 2-3 foot snows on west side mtns of pa into wva. Defies GFS..again! Canadian takes 939 mb hurricane into NYC Monday from southeast as it will not allow escape. Euro through 120 much further w than gfs Still think pattern favors the capture, so until Friday, its game on as GFS has missed many storms to the southeast with bogus interactions [link to twitter.com] ECMWF forecasts record low pressure for north atlantic this far north at 216 hours 39n 71 928 mb Weatherbell site [link to twitter.com] |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 26099042 United States 10/23/2012 05:28 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Accuweather has posted about the potential for this storm to be a monster for the East Coast early next week: [link to www.accuweather.com] |
Éireann User ID: 26010953 United States 10/23/2012 05:29 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Latest Euro has this heading to Long Island as a 950mb system = Cat 3 Quoting: DoorBert [link to moe.met.fsu.edu] NHC considers Euro as the most reliable model. Unlike some people who think weather.com is all the weather news you ever need. It's a commercial money making business. They make money off the news. Of course they aren't going to spill the beans on what Sandy's gonna do once she hits the upper Atlantic. Heebus Jeebus. Eireann~ I am crucified with Christ: nevertheless I live; yet not I, but Christ liveth in me: and the life which I now live in the flesh I live by the faith of the Son of God, who loved me, and gave himself for me. - Galatians 2:20 |
Éireann User ID: 26010953 United States 10/23/2012 05:33 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Accuweather has posted about the potential for this storm to be a monster for the East Coast early next week: Quoting: Anonymous Coward 26099042 [link to www.accuweather.com] Thank you! That isn't the link I'm looking for, but the information is still what I was reading. Great post! From the link: How Sandy tracks Friday and beyond is dependent on several weather factors, which at this time are very complex and creating solutions that range from a tropical nightmare to a miss for the East Coast. Quoting: The worst case scenario for the East Coast involves Sandy paralleling the coast from Florida to the Carolinas this weekend before being drawn inland into the mid-Atlantic or New England early next week. Eireann~ I am crucified with Christ: nevertheless I live; yet not I, but Christ liveth in me: and the life which I now live in the flesh I live by the faith of the Son of God, who loved me, and gave himself for me. - Galatians 2:20 |
Éireann User ID: 26010953 United States 10/23/2012 05:36 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Found it!!! [link to www.v8buick.com] Yes!!! It's a car forum. What...you think girls aren't into cars? Edit: Oh.. I guess I could have just given y'all the link the poster put in his post. [link to tropwxhq.wordpress.com] Last Edited by Eireann on 10/23/2012 05:37 AM Eireann~ I am crucified with Christ: nevertheless I live; yet not I, but Christ liveth in me: and the life which I now live in the flesh I live by the faith of the Son of God, who loved me, and gave himself for me. - Galatians 2:20 |
DoorBert (OP) User ID: 857877 United States 10/23/2012 05:45 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Been firing a massive hot tower for the last 4 hours just SE of the center of circulation. [link to www.nrlmry.navy.mil] [link to www.ssd.noaa.gov] [link to rammb.cira.colostate.edu] |
DoorBert (OP) User ID: 870568 United States 10/23/2012 05:53 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | If Sandy phases with the cold-front or not, one thing for sure is there will be a large upper-level low to the east of Sandy when Sandy is in the north Bahamas. This will cause Sandy to intensify rapidly since it will create ideal upper-level ventilation. This is referred to as a poleward outflow channel by the mets. If Sandy stays more west at this time, it'll be in the Gulf Stream and have a lot of juice to ramp up as well. [link to weather.rap.ucar.edu] |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 26099042 United States 10/23/2012 05:57 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Accuweather has posted about the potential for this storm to be a monster for the East Coast early next week: Quoting: Anonymous Coward 26099042 [link to www.accuweather.com] Thank you! That isn't the link I'm looking for, but the information is still what I was reading. Great post! From the link: How Sandy tracks Friday and beyond is dependent on several weather factors, which at this time are very complex and creating solutions that range from a tropical nightmare to a miss for the East Coast. Quoting: The worst case scenario for the East Coast involves Sandy paralleling the coast from Florida to the Carolinas this weekend before being drawn inland into the mid-Atlantic or New England early next week. You are welcome! |
DoorBert (OP) User ID: 857877 United States 10/23/2012 05:59 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Devoted Follower User ID: 25606271 United States 10/23/2012 05:59 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Éireann User ID: 26010953 United States 10/23/2012 06:06 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Are you nuts? Eireann~ I am crucified with Christ: nevertheless I live; yet not I, but Christ liveth in me: and the life which I now live in the flesh I live by the faith of the Son of God, who loved me, and gave himself for me. - Galatians 2:20 |