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**GALLUP SHOCK** Romney Up 52-45% Among Early Voters

 
Fire WatchModerator
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**GALLUP SHOCK** Romney Up 52-45% Among Early Voters
[link to www.breitbart.com]

Sounds like a nothing story, right?

Except waaaaay at the bottom we learn this:

Thus far, early voters do not seem to be swaying the election toward either candidate.

Romney currently leads Obama 52% to 45% among voters who say they have already cast their ballots. However, that is comparable to Romney's 51% to 46% lead among all likely voters in Gallup's Oct. 22-28 tracking polling. At the same time, the race is tied at 49% among those who have not yet voted but still intend to vote early, suggesting these voters could cause the race to tighten. However, Romney leads 51% to 45% among the much larger group of voters who plan to vote on Election Day, Nov. 6.

Last Edited by Fire Watch on 10/30/2012 12:20 AM
When the people fear the government, there is tyranny. When the government fears the people, there is liberty. Thomas Jefferson
-------------------------------------
The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants.
Thomas Jefferson
Anonymous Coward
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10/30/2012 12:21 AM
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Re: **GALLUP SHOCK** Romney Up 52-45% Among Early Voters
i really hope romney isnt really evil, i think i want him to win but part of me doesnt trust him. hope he isnt the anti-christ.
Anonymous Coward
10/30/2012 12:21 AM
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Re: **GALLUP SHOCK** Romney Up 52-45% Among Early Voters
drevil

"Nearly one-in-three Ohio voters (32%) have already cast their ballots. Obama leads 62% to 36% among these voters."

[link to www.rasmussenreports.com]
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Re: **GALLUP SHOCK** Romney Up 52-45% Among Early Voters
i really hope romney isnt really evil, i think i want him to win but part of me doesnt trust him. hope he isnt the anti-christ.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 5073178


I really hope not too SmileyWink
When the people fear the government, there is tyranny. When the government fears the people, there is liberty. Thomas Jefferson
-------------------------------------
The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants.
Thomas Jefferson
Giftedest

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10/30/2012 12:24 AM

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Re: **GALLUP SHOCK** Romney Up 52-45% Among Early Voters
Where and how in the hell can anyone have access to the results of early voting ballots?

This is either SHILL BS or someone is committing a felony.
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Re: **GALLUP SHOCK** Romney Up 52-45% Among Early Voters
Where and how in the hell can anyone have access to the results of early voting ballots?

This is either SHILL BS or someone is committing a felony.
 Quoting: Giftedest


It is just polling my friend.
When the people fear the government, there is tyranny. When the government fears the people, there is liberty. Thomas Jefferson
-------------------------------------
The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants.
Thomas Jefferson
Fire WatchModerator (OP)
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10/30/2012 12:34 AM

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Re: **GALLUP SHOCK** Romney Up 52-45% Among Early Voters
Something else in this Gallup survey also helps shed some light on what we're seeing in these sometimes counter-intuitive state polls. As the headline states, Gallup is showing that only 15% of the public has already voted. Moreover, they've broken down early voting by region and show that in the Midwest only 13% of voters have already voted. And yet, many polls in places like Ohio show a much higher percentage of early voters, some as high as 30%, which you can bet skews the data. In other words, those polls can't be correct.
When the people fear the government, there is tyranny. When the government fears the people, there is liberty. Thomas Jefferson
-------------------------------------
The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants.
Thomas Jefferson
Fire WatchModerator (OP)
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10/30/2012 12:40 AM

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Re: **GALLUP SHOCK** Romney Up 52-45% Among Early Voters
quote:

But here is what we do know: 220,000 fewer Democrats have voted early in Ohio compared with 2008. And 30,000 more Republicans have cast their ballots compared with four years ago. That is a 250,000-vote net increase for a state Obama won by 260,000 votes in 2008.
When the people fear the government, there is tyranny. When the government fears the people, there is liberty. Thomas Jefferson
-------------------------------------
The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants.
Thomas Jefferson
Anonymous Coward
10/30/2012 12:48 AM
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Re: **GALLUP SHOCK** Romney Up 52-45% Among Early Voters
Gallup is showing that only 15% of the public has already voted. Moreover, they've broken down early voting by region and show that in the Midwest only 13% of voters have already voted. And yet, many polls in places like Ohio show a much higher percentage of early voters, some as high as 30%, which you can bet skews the data. In other words, those polls can't be correct.
 Quoting: Fire Watch


Your conclusion is based on faulty reasoning. If only 13% of midwest voters have cast their ballots, there exists the likelihood that some states, that are members of that set, have actually cast their early ballots at the reported rates. Which is to say that the 13% could be some measure of central tendency, arithmetic mean or median, and not necessarily a robust statistic. So Gallup's 13% is not a robust measure as other members in that set have lower early voting statistics that are causing the positive skew.
Anonymous Coward
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10/30/2012 12:49 AM
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Re: **GALLUP SHOCK** Romney Up 52-45% Among Early Voters
Exacty why Barry will further shred the Constitution which specifies that "on the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November every second year" national elections are to be held--and neither the Civil War, WW1 or WW2 or plenty of other big storms over the last 230 years have stopped elections from proceeding for all who were able to get to the polling places.
Emperor Barry will decree otherwise, in hopes that the Billions of borrowed $ he gives to people too lame to buy insrance to protect their property against losses will buy him some more freeshitarmy votes, like doubling the number of foodstamp mooches driving new cars and investing in colorful tattoos instead of feeding themselves, and careless breeders pooping out mutts on Medicaid, or "so I can call my grandchildren" "obamaphone " leeches.
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Re: **GALLUP SHOCK** Romney Up 52-45% Among Early Voters
Exacty why Barry will further shred the Constitution which specifies that "on the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November every second year" national elections are to be held--and neither the Civil War, WW1 or WW2 or plenty of other big storms over the last 230 years have stopped elections from proceeding for all who were able to get to the polling places.
Emperor Barry will decree otherwise, in hopes that the Billions of borrowed $ he gives to people too lame to buy insrance to protect their property against losses will buy him some more freeshitarmy votes, like doubling the number of foodstamp mooches driving new cars and investing in colorful tattoos instead of feeding themselves, and careless breeders pooping out mutts on Medicaid, or "so I can call my grandchildren" "obamaphone " leeches.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 26594951


You may be right but I believe it will backfire. Fence sitters (and a lot of others) would be scared shitless!
When the people fear the government, there is tyranny. When the government fears the people, there is liberty. Thomas Jefferson
-------------------------------------
The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants.
Thomas Jefferson
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10/30/2012 12:54 AM

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Re: **GALLUP SHOCK** Romney Up 52-45% Among Early Voters
Dems are in panic mode, they know it is over.
TOMABANEFOX
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Re: **GALLUP SHOCK** Romney Up 52-45% Among Early Voters
Dems are in panic mode, they know it is over.
 Quoting: Desert Fox


I sure hope you are right...dasbier
When the people fear the government, there is tyranny. When the government fears the people, there is liberty. Thomas Jefferson
-------------------------------------
The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants.
Thomas Jefferson
Judethz
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10/30/2012 01:03 AM

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Re: **GALLUP SHOCK** Romney Up 52-45% Among Early Voters
Your conclusion is based on faulty reasoning. If only 13% of midwest voters have cast their ballots, there exists the probability that some states that are members of that set have actually cast their early ballots at the reported rates. Which is to say that the 13% could be some measure of central tendency, arithmetic mean or median, and not necessarily a robust statistic. So Gallup's 13% is not a robust measure as other members in that set have lower early voting statistics that are causing the positive skew.
 Quoting: Wonkish


kitty Well that's clear as mud.
Anonymous Coward
10/30/2012 01:05 AM
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Re: **GALLUP SHOCK** Romney Up 52-45% Among Early Voters
Your conclusion is based on faulty reasoning. If only 13% of midwest voters have cast their ballots, there exists the probability that some states that are members of that set have actually cast their early ballots at the reported rates. Which is to say that the 13% could be some measure of central tendency, arithmetic mean or median, and not necessarily a robust statistic. So Gallup's 13% is not a robust measure as other members in that set have lower early voting statistics that are causing the positive skew.
 Quoting: Wonkish


kitty Well that's clear as mud.
 Quoting: Judethz


It is clear, intuitive, and rational. I am sorry that you seem to be having a difficult time understanding such material.
Giftedest

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10/30/2012 01:07 AM

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Re: **GALLUP SHOCK** Romney Up 52-45% Among Early Voters
Oh, sorry... I totally missed the "Gallup" part.

Gallup polls are completely accurate.

They didn't ask me, BTW.
Fire WatchModerator (OP)
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Re: **GALLUP SHOCK** Romney Up 52-45% Among Early Voters
Your conclusion is based on faulty reasoning. If only 13% of midwest voters have cast their ballots, there exists the probability that some states that are members of that set have actually cast their early ballots at the reported rates. Which is to say that the 13% could be some measure of central tendency, arithmetic mean or median, and not necessarily a robust statistic. So Gallup's 13% is not a robust measure as other members in that set have lower early voting statistics that are causing the positive skew.
 Quoting: Wonkish


kitty Well that's clear as mud.
 Quoting: Judethz


It is clear, intuitive, and rational. I am sorry that you seem to be having a difficult time understanding such material.
 Quoting: Wonkish


You will have to take that up with the author of the article... as I stated I was just quoting Gallup.
When the people fear the government, there is tyranny. When the government fears the people, there is liberty. Thomas Jefferson
-------------------------------------
The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants.
Thomas Jefferson
Fire WatchModerator (OP)
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10/30/2012 01:17 AM

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Re: **GALLUP SHOCK** Romney Up 52-45% Among Early Voters
Dems are in panic mode, they know it is over.
 Quoting: Desert Fox


Do you believe their will be widespread disorder if that happens??
When the people fear the government, there is tyranny. When the government fears the people, there is liberty. Thomas Jefferson
-------------------------------------
The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants.
Thomas Jefferson
Anonymous Coward
10/30/2012 01:18 AM
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Re: **GALLUP SHOCK** Romney Up 52-45% Among Early Voters
Your conclusion is based on faulty reasoning. If only 13% of midwest voters have cast their ballots, there exists the probability that some states that are members of that set have actually cast their early ballots at the reported rates. Which is to say that the 13% could be some measure of central tendency, arithmetic mean or median, and not necessarily a robust statistic. So Gallup's 13% is not a robust measure as other members in that set have lower early voting statistics that are causing the positive skew.
 Quoting: Wonkish


kitty Well that's clear as mud.
 Quoting: Judethz


It is clear, intuitive, and rational. I am sorry that you seem to be having a difficult time understanding such material.
 Quoting: Wonkish


You will have to take that up with the author of the article... as I stated I was just quoting Gallup.
 Quoting: Fire Watch


I pointed out the flaws in the reasoning and your response is "take that up with the author of the article" without any attempt to negate what was stated. Why not attempt to show the falsity of my statements instead of mindlessly believing a false statement?

It should also be noted that you were not quoting Gallup in that particular post. You copied/pasted a snippet from Breitbart.

Breitbart != Gallup
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Re: **GALLUP SHOCK** Romney Up 52-45% Among Early Voters
...


kitty Well that's clear as mud.
 Quoting: Judethz


It is clear, intuitive, and rational. I am sorry that you seem to be having a difficult time understanding such material.
 Quoting: Wonkish


You will have to take that up with the author of the article... as I stated I was just quoting Gallup.
 Quoting: Fire Watch


I pointed out the flaws in the reasoning and your response is "take that up with the author of the article" without any attempt to negate what was stated. Why not attempt to show the falsity of my statements instead of mindlessly believing a false statement?

It should also be noted that were not quoting Gallup in that particular post. You copied/pasted a snippet from Breitbart.

Breitbart != Gallup
 Quoting: Wonkish


I think you like to see/hear yourelf speak. I suspect that you are/were a teacher. I don't have anything to prove to you and I don't wish to play your game.
When the people fear the government, there is tyranny. When the government fears the people, there is liberty. Thomas Jefferson
-------------------------------------
The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants.
Thomas Jefferson
Anonymous Coward
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10/30/2012 01:27 AM
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Re: **GALLUP SHOCK** Romney Up 52-45% Among Early Voters
what bit is shocking?
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10/30/2012 01:28 AM

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Re: **GALLUP SHOCK** Romney Up 52-45% Among Early Voters
...


kitty Well that's clear as mud.
 Quoting: Judethz


It is clear, intuitive, and rational. I am sorry that you seem to be having a difficult time understanding such material.
 Quoting: Wonkish


You will have to take that up with the author of the article... as I stated I was just quoting Gallup.
 Quoting: Fire Watch


I pointed out the flaws in the reasoning and your response is "take that up with the author of the article" without any attempt to negate what was stated. Why not attempt to show the falsity of my statements instead of mindlessly believing a false statement?

It should also be noted that you were not quoting Gallup in that particular post. You copied/pasted a snippet from Breitbart.

Breitbart != Gallup
 Quoting: Wonkish


I'm surprised, and a bit taken aback, that a MOD would call a paying member mindless.
When the people fear the government, there is tyranny. When the government fears the people, there is liberty. Thomas Jefferson
-------------------------------------
The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants.
Thomas Jefferson
Fire WatchModerator (OP)
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10/30/2012 01:30 AM

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Re: **GALLUP SHOCK** Romney Up 52-45% Among Early Voters
what bit is shocking?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 26593513


The polls so far have supposedly had Obama holding a commanding lead amongst early voters.
When the people fear the government, there is tyranny. When the government fears the people, there is liberty. Thomas Jefferson
-------------------------------------
The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants.
Thomas Jefferson
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Re: **GALLUP SHOCK** Romney Up 52-45% Among Early Voters
Dems are in panic mode, they know it is over.
 Quoting: Desert Fox


Do you believe their will be widespread disorder if that happens??
 Quoting: Fire Watch


Yes.
TOMABANEFOX
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Re: **GALLUP SHOCK** Romney Up 52-45% Among Early Voters
Dems are in panic mode, they know it is over.
 Quoting: Desert Fox


Do you believe their will be widespread disorder if that happens??
 Quoting: Fire Watch


Yes.
 Quoting: Desert Fox


I am afraid you are right...I am not convinced that Romney will win however.
When the people fear the government, there is tyranny. When the government fears the people, there is liberty. Thomas Jefferson
-------------------------------------
The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants.
Thomas Jefferson
Judethz
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10/30/2012 01:45 AM

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Re: **GALLUP SHOCK** Romney Up 52-45% Among Early Voters
Your conclusion is based on faulty reasoning. If only 13% of midwest voters have cast their ballots, there exists the probability that some states that are members of that set have actually cast their early ballots at the reported rates. Which is to say that the 13% could be some measure of central tendency, arithmetic mean or median, and not necessarily a robust statistic. So Gallup's 13% is not a robust measure as other members in that set have lower early voting statistics that are causing the positive skew.
 Quoting: Wonkish


kitty Well that's clear as mud.
 Quoting: Judethz


It is clear, intuitive, and rational. I am sorry that you seem to be having a difficult time understanding such material.
 Quoting: Wonkish


blackcat I need a conclusion that I can either agree or disagree with. It's 5 AM over here, I've just woke up and I ain't had no koffee.
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Re: **GALLUP SHOCK** Romney Up 52-45% Among Early Voters
Your conclusion is based on faulty reasoning. If only 13% of midwest voters have cast their ballots, there exists the probability that some states that are members of that set have actually cast their early ballots at the reported rates. Which is to say that the 13% could be some measure of central tendency, arithmetic mean or median, and not necessarily a robust statistic. So Gallup's 13% is not a robust measure as other members in that set have lower early voting statistics that are causing the positive skew.
 Quoting: Wonkish


kitty Well that's clear as mud.
 Quoting: Judethz


It is clear, intuitive, and rational. I am sorry that you seem to be having a difficult time understanding such material.
 Quoting: Wonkish


blackcat I need a conclusion that I can either agree or disagree with. It's 5 AM over here, I've just woke up and I ain't had no koffee.
 Quoting: Judethz


: )

Last Edited by Fire Watch on 10/30/2012 01:48 AM
When the people fear the government, there is tyranny. When the government fears the people, there is liberty. Thomas Jefferson
-------------------------------------
The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants.
Thomas Jefferson
Anonymous Coward
10/30/2012 01:48 AM
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Re: **GALLUP SHOCK** Romney Up 52-45% Among Early Voters
...


It is clear, intuitive, and rational. I am sorry that you seem to be having a difficult time understanding such material.
 Quoting: Wonkish


You will have to take that up with the author of the article... as I stated I was just quoting Gallup.
 Quoting: Fire Watch


I pointed out the flaws in the reasoning and your response is "take that up with the author of the article" without any attempt to negate what was stated. Why not attempt to show the falsity of my statements instead of mindlessly believing a false statement?

It should also be noted that you were not quoting Gallup in that particular post. You copied/pasted a snippet from Breitbart.

Breitbart != Gallup
 Quoting: Wonkish


I'm surprised, and a bit taken aback, that a MOD would call a paying member mindless.
 Quoting: Fire Watch


I never 'called' you mindless. If I was to have called you mindless, it would have meant that the set of all your actions could be classified as mindless---every element in such a set would would be 'mindless.' Such a statement would not be true and could easily be negated by existential quantification. Also, proving such a statement would have required me to overcome a level a burden that could not be done in a rigorous manner due to the irrationality of man. Perhaps you should try to not reason in an emotional manner and you will not arrive at fallacious conclusions.
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Re: **GALLUP SHOCK** Romney Up 52-45% Among Early Voters
...


You will have to take that up with the author of the article... as I stated I was just quoting Gallup.
 Quoting: Fire Watch


I pointed out the flaws in the reasoning and your response is "take that up with the author of the article" without any attempt to negate what was stated. Why not attempt to show the falsity of my statements instead of mindlessly believing a false statement?

It should also be noted that you were not quoting Gallup in that particular post. You copied/pasted a snippet from Breitbart.

Breitbart != Gallup
 Quoting: Wonkish


I'm surprised, and a bit taken aback, that a MOD would call a paying member mindless.
 Quoting: Fire Watch


I never 'called' you mindless. If I was to have called you mindless, it would have meant that the set of all your actions could be classified as mindless---every element in such a set would would be 'mindless.' Such a statement would not be true and could easily be negated by existential quantification. Also, proving such a statement would have required me to overcome a level a burden that could not be done in a rigorous manner due to the irrationality of man. Perhaps you should try to not reason in an emotional manner and you will not arrive at fallacious conclusions.
 Quoting: Wonkish


You said I was mindlessly believing a misstatement. So temporary mindlessness?

Last Edited by Fire Watch on 10/30/2012 01:52 AM
When the people fear the government, there is tyranny. When the government fears the people, there is liberty. Thomas Jefferson
-------------------------------------
The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants.
Thomas Jefferson
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Re: **GALLUP SHOCK** Romney Up 52-45% Among Early Voters
Dems are in panic mode, they know it is over.
 Quoting: Desert Fox


Do you believe their will be widespread disorder if that happens??
 Quoting: Fire Watch


Yes.
 Quoting: Desert Fox


I am afraid you are right...I am not convinced that Romney will win however.
 Quoting: Fire Watch


Nor am I, but highly hopeful, as it is looking more likely every day.
TOMABANEFOX
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10/30/2012 02:04 AM
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Re: **GALLUP SHOCK** Romney Up 52-45% Among Early Voters
...


I pointed out the flaws in the reasoning and your response is "take that up with the author of the article" without any attempt to negate what was stated. Why not attempt to show the falsity of my statements instead of mindlessly believing a false statement?

It should also be noted that you were not quoting Gallup in that particular post. You copied/pasted a snippet from Breitbart.

Breitbart != Gallup
 Quoting: Wonkish


I'm surprised, and a bit taken aback, that a MOD would call a paying member mindless.
 Quoting: Fire Watch


I never 'called' you mindless. If I was to have called you mindless, it would have meant that the set of all your actions could be classified as mindless---every element in such a set would would be 'mindless.' Such a statement would not be true and could easily be negated by existential quantification. Also, proving such a statement would have required me to overcome a level a burden that could not be done in a rigorous manner due to the irrationality of man. Perhaps you should try to not reason in an emotional manner and you will not arrive at fallacious conclusions.
 Quoting: Wonkish


You said I was mindlessly believing a misstatement. So temporary mindlessness?
 Quoting: Fire Watch


I take it Logic is not a subject that you are familiar with...

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