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<<Scientific prediction as to the Sun and Dec 21, 2012>>

 
Nacht im Walde
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11/01/2012 12:56 PM
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<<Scientific prediction as to the Sun and Dec 21, 2012>>
hey folks,

I suppose this isn`t going to be a doom thread, so if you are looking for it just hit the "return" button.

I found this graph of solar flux, sunspot number, and AP-index for the last year (November 2011-Oktober 2012) very interesting. (from solen.info)

[link to imageshack.us]

I marked the peaks which are very clearly noticeable. The regular cycle begins in April (the peaks are also visible before this date, yet not so clearly defined) with the trough being on April 10th, the peak on April 22nd, and the second trough on May 1st. Notice that especially the last 8 peaks are very distinct and clearly marked. This is due to the active regions located currently (and for the last months) on one side of the sun. This means that half of the sun is pretty much blank of sunspots whereas the opposite side is very active. I am not a scientist per se, but it is interesting to notice that the active regions show up so regularly over the last months.

This pattern can be explained by the sun's roation as it takes about 25 days for one rotation (at 16° latitude). This means that every 25 days we face the same side of the sun again- thus, explaining the cycle in the graph above. As the cycle has been so consistent it is possbile to predict if we will face the unsettled region of the sun on Dec 21, 2012 or not. I looked at the length of each cycle and calculated the average which is 25,33 days. (On a side note this is exactly the average which is listed on wikipedia for the sun's rotation at 16° latitude (25,38 days) so my calculations are pretty good). The peaks in between are on average 12,66 days.

If we do some simple maths we get:

Oktober 31st (starting with the trough on the graph) + 25,33 days + 25,33 days we get (this was kind of surprising) Dec 21st, 2012!

This means that we will be in a lull in solar activity on Dec 21st, 2012 as the active side will be on the opposite side from the Earth. The peaks, respectively, will be on December 8th and January 3rd.

This is my personal prediction for the "doomsday", take it for what you will.
We don't see things as they are, we see things as we are. - Anais Nin
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 26787115
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11/01/2012 01:36 PM
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Re: <<Scientific prediction as to the Sun and Dec 21, 2012>>
Sol is dying Dec 8th is only the beginning of the end!

[link to www.pakalertpress.com]
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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11/01/2012 02:42 PM
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Re: <<Scientific prediction as to the Sun and Dec 21, 2012>>
Sol is dying Dec 8th is only the beginning of the end!

[link to www.pakalertpress.com]
 Quoting: 1nf1del


there are several issues I have with the article- the foremost being that it presupposes the nuclear fusion model of the sun.

[link to www.holoscience.com]
Anonymous Coward
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11/01/2012 02:56 PM
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Re: <<Scientific prediction as to the Sun and Dec 21, 2012>>
Sol is dying Dec 8th is only the beginning of the end!

[link to www.pakalertpress.com]
 Quoting: 1nf1del


there are several issues I have with the article- the foremost being that it presupposes the nuclear fusion model of the sun.

[link to www.holoscience.com]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 26769094


Could you explain what you mean please?
Anonymous Coward
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11/01/2012 03:00 PM
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Re: <<Scientific prediction as to the Sun and Dec 21, 2012>>
Sol is dying Dec 8th is only the beginning of the end!

[link to www.pakalertpress.com]
 Quoting: 1nf1del


there are several issues I have with the article- the foremost being that it presupposes the nuclear fusion model of the sun.

[link to www.holoscience.com]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 26769094


It is a very compelling argument for everything that is going on, solar system heating, global warming, unusual brightness as of late, etc!
Anonymous Coward
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11/01/2012 03:03 PM
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Re: <<Scientific prediction as to the Sun and Dec 21, 2012>>
bump
Nacht im Walde (OP)

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11/01/2012 03:11 PM
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Re: <<Scientific prediction as to the Sun and Dec 21, 2012>>
Sol is dying Dec 8th is only the beginning of the end!

[link to www.pakalertpress.com]
 Quoting: 1nf1del


there are several issues I have with the article- the foremost being that it presupposes the nuclear fusion model of the sun.

[link to www.holoscience.com]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 26769094


It is a very compelling argument for everything that is going on, solar system heating, global warming, unusual brightness as of late, etc!
 Quoting: 1nf1del


You`ll have to do a bit of research, but for starters:


We don't see things as they are, we see things as we are. - Anais Nin
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 26787115
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11/01/2012 03:24 PM
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Re: <<Scientific prediction as to the Sun and Dec 21, 2012>>
Sol is dying Dec 8th is only the beginning of the end!

[link to www.pakalertpress.com]
 Quoting: 1nf1del


there are several issues I have with the article- the foremost being that it presupposes the nuclear fusion model of the sun.

[link to www.holoscience.com]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 26769094


It is a very compelling argument for everything that is going on, solar system heating, global warming, unusual brightness as of late, etc!
 Quoting: 1nf1del


You`ll have to do a bit of research, but for starters:


 Quoting: Nacht im Walde


Well that kind of finding might be expected, nothing in Quantum Physics is panning out the way they previously thought, so seeing what they're seeing on the sun doesn't surprise me, with our current level of understanding of the universe it's all just theory at this point but if we pay enough attention, we might learn something!
Superheavyweight
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11/01/2012 03:31 PM
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Re: <<Scientific prediction as to the Sun and Dec 21, 2012>>
2012 has always been about 'Noah' and the 'Why' for Noah.

That's why the B-Real Mexicans don't actually spit.

(Peru whatever)
Superheavyweight
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11/01/2012 03:38 PM
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Re: <<Scientific prediction as to the Sun and Dec 21, 2012>>
[link to www.imdb.com]
Supercruiserweight
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11/01/2012 03:41 PM
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Re: <<Scientific prediction as to the Sun and Dec 21, 2012>>
whiteangel

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11/01/2012 04:14 PM

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Re: <<Scientific prediction as to the Sun and Dec 21, 2012>>
OP very interesting. Many of us have made note of the sun when facing earth, goes quiet. This time around with the X-flare in Oct, it did round the eastern corner. This month some of us are thinking it will be close to the middle of the sun facing earth before going dormant. Then in December should be fully facing earth if anything pops, like a CME it would be aimed square at earth. Timing...no idea, we will have to wait and see what happens this month first.
"If voting made a difference they wouldn't let us do it" -Mark Twain
Anonymous Coward
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11/01/2012 04:16 PM
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Re: <<Scientific prediction as to the Sun and Dec 21, 2012>>
Sol is dying Dec 8th is only the beginning of the end!

[link to www.pakalertpress.com]
 Quoting: 1nf1del


Anonymous Coward
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11/01/2012 05:12 PM
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Re: <<Scientific prediction as to the Sun and Dec 21, 2012>>

 Quoting: Supercruiserweight 26790774


I haven't seen any of those "cash for gold" commercials lately!
Nacht im Walde (OP)

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11/02/2012 04:44 AM
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Re: <<Scientific prediction as to the Sun and Dec 21, 2012>>
Why did you isolate 16 Degrees Latitude?
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


well 16° latitude is approximately the area where most of the sunspots are located (+- some degrees, but the rotational period isn`t too different for the general area).

As the solar flux is "a measure of diffuse, nonradiative heating of the coronal plasma trapped by magnetic fields over active regions" (aka sunspots) it is not indicative of coronal holes. But even if it were, it goes to show that the sun currently is split up into two parts: an active and a non active side. If one looks at the chart and assumes the cycle will continue one can easily predict that on Dec 21, 2012 the Earth will face the inactive side of the sun.

Basically the side we are seeing at the moment on the sun is going to be the same in two solar rotations. As we are currently in a lull of solar activity the same will hold true for Dec 21st, 2012.
We don't see things as they are, we see things as we are. - Anais Nin
Stickyfoot

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11/02/2012 11:11 AM

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Re: <<Scientific prediction as to the Sun and Dec 21, 2012>>
bumppeaceThanks OP , i have wondered what you have been doing .
Stickyfoot,i think i stepped in something
steeler

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11/02/2012 12:01 PM
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Re: <<Scientific prediction as to the Sun and Dec 21, 2012>>
[link to paneandov.com]
viking**
Nacht im Walde (OP)

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11/02/2012 12:47 PM
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Re: <<Scientific prediction as to the Sun and Dec 21, 2012>>
 Quoting: steeler


see my post above for 1nf1del: this article is what I would call pseudoscience. Not that there is a genuine threat from the sun, but that is just fear mongering.
We don't see things as they are, we see things as we are. - Anais Nin
Nacht im Walde (OP)

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11/02/2012 12:57 PM
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Re: <<Scientific prediction as to the Sun and Dec 21, 2012>>
bumppeaceThanks OP , i have wondered what you have been doing .
 Quoting: Stickyfoot


hey there =)

have been busy lately...
We don't see things as they are, we see things as we are. - Anais Nin
jacksprat

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11/02/2012 01:05 PM
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Re: <<Scientific prediction as to the Sun and Dec 21, 2012>>
hf

i hope so!!!
jacksprat
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11/02/2012 01:19 PM
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Re: <<Scientific prediction as to the Sun and Dec 21, 2012>>

Sol is dying Dec 8th
 Quoting: 1nf1del


The sun will never die, although it may EVOLVE.

The sun, like all the stars and planets, are living organisms just like you and me. All living organisms have a spirit within that can never die and continually evolves to higher forms.
MWELLK
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11/02/2012 01:48 PM
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Re: <<Scientific prediction as to the Sun and Dec 21, 2012>>
[26,000 years ago,as a result of an explosion at the center of our galaxy, a ribbon of energy , highly magnetic, is going to hit the sun dec 21 2012 ...no one knows what is going to result
jacksprat

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11/02/2012 01:51 PM
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Re: <<Scientific prediction as to the Sun and Dec 21, 2012>>
[26,000 years ago,as a result of an explosion at the center of our galaxy, a ribbon of energy , highly magnetic, is going to hit the sun dec 21 2012 ...no one knows what is going to result
 Quoting: MWELLK 18996828


i am so looking forward to this
jacksprat
Nacht im Walde (OP)

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11/02/2012 06:45 PM
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Re: <<Scientific prediction as to the Sun and Dec 21, 2012>>
[26,000 years ago,as a result of an explosion at the center of our galaxy, a ribbon of energy , highly magnetic, is going to hit the sun dec 21 2012 ...no one knows what is going to result
 Quoting: MWELLK 18996828


what is your source?

are you refering to:

[link to www.bbc.co.uk]

??
We don't see things as they are, we see things as we are. - Anais Nin
Nacht im Walde (OP)

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11/13/2012 11:24 AM
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Re: <<Scientific prediction as to the Sun and Dec 21, 2012>>
still pretty good on track (perhaps 1-2 days behind)

[link to www.solen.info]

next min: Nov 25th; Dec 21st

next max: Nov 13th(will probably be 15th); Dec 8th; Jan 3rd
We don't see things as they are, we see things as we are. - Anais Nin

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