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IMPORTANT: Why the polls are wrong and Romney will win

 
l3ol3o
Omar's coming Yo!

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11/04/2012 03:44 PM

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IMPORTANT: Why the polls are wrong and Romney will win
If you were to look at all the polls today you would think that this election is Obama's to lose. That isn't true though and I want to explain the numbers a little bit better to show why Romney will win this.

First Gallup released some VERY important data a few days ago. [link to www.gallup.com]

Ever election year Gallup does research to show what the electorate will look like. I just want to highlight some of the things in this poll.

First we must remember that 2008 was a historic year for Democrats. I will be comparing the 2012 electorate with the 2008 one.

The first thing in this Gallup data is demographic changes between 2008 and 2012. Almost all these changes benefit Romney.

+1 Men from 2008. Men normally vote for Romney
-1 Women from 2008. Women normally vote for Obama
Hispanics are the same. Obama expected more Hispanic voters.
-1 for Blacks. Blacks vote over 90% Obama.
-1 for 18-29 y/o which vote for Obama
+1 for everyone over 50 which typically vote for Romney.

All this data translates into less votes for OBama. None of the current polls are accounting for this. They are all using old data from past elections to predict 2012.

Here is the most important data though.

In 2008 54% of people leaned Democrat and only 42% leaned Republican. Thats a spread of +12 for Democrats.

2012 is much different. 49% lean Republican and only 46% lean Democrat. A +3 advantage for the Republicans. Now remember this because we need to look at how the current polls are weighting their data. Lets have a look

CBS News/NY Times +5D
Pew Research +1D
ABC News/Wash. Post +7D
IBD/TIPP +7D
Rasmussen +3D
Gallup +1D

So as you can see all of the polls are still expecting more Democrats to turn out this year then Republicans even though the data is telling us otherwise. If you change all these polls to +3R like Gallup is predicting then Romney wins easily. This isn't even figuring in the demographic changes in the electorate or the fact that Romney is winning all polls with Independents by at least 10 points.

The reason the race looks so close right now is because the media elites believe that Obama is going to get record turnout again. Like in 2010, the media doesn't see the masses of angry people waiting to kick Obama out of office. The polls are wrong because the voter turnout models they are using are wrong. Watch and see come election day.

One more thing. I'm sure some will say, "Ok he may win Nationally but his problem is the electorial college. Obama is going to win the swing states."

The polling in swing states are skewed towards democrats again. Here's some examples:

CBS News/NY Times FL +8D
CBS News/NY Times OH +9D
CBS News/NY Times PA +8D
Franklin and Marshall PA +11D
Wash Post FL +4D
Wash Post OH +7D

Again the pollsters are expecting Obama supporters to turn out in much greater numbers than Romney supporters even though the Gallup data says other wise and Republican voters are much more motivated then Democrats.

If you believe that Obama will turn out the similar numbers then 2008 then Obama will win. If you think Republicans will turn out in numbers similar to 2010 then Romney will win.
Ayatollah Khomeini:
“Islam makes it incumbent on all adult males, provided they are not disabled and incapacitated, to prepare themselves for the conquest of [other] countries so that the writ of Islam is obeyed in every country in the world. But those who study Islamic Holy War will understand why Islam wants to conquer the whole world…. Those who know nothing of Islam pretend that Islam counsels against war. Those [who say this] are witless. Islam says: Kill all the unbelievers just as they would kill you all! Does this mean that Muslims should sit back until they are devoured by [the unbelievers]? Islam says: Kill them [the non-Muslims], put them to the sword and scatter [their armies]. Does this mean sitting back until [non-Muslims] overcome us? Islam says: Kill in the service of Allah those who may want to kill you! Does this mean that we should surrender to the enemy? Islam says: Whatever good there is exists thanks to the sword and in the shadow of the sword! People cannot be made obedient except with the sword! The sword is the key to Paradise, which can be opened only for Holy Warriors! There are hundreds of other [Koranic] verses and Hadiths [sayings of the Prophet] urging Muslims to value war and to fight. Does all that mean that Islam is a religion that prevents men from waging war? I spit upon those foolish souls who make such a claim.”
Anonymous Coward
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11/04/2012 03:54 PM
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Re: IMPORTANT: Why the polls are wrong and Romney will win
Say what? Gallup had Mitt Romney up by 6 a week ago. Rassmussen had Romney up by 2 a week ago.

Romney was up big in Florida and right there in Ohio a week ago.

Hurricane Sandy couldn't have changed anything that dramatically for Obama. He did nothing personally.

Are voters this stupid?
Anonymous Coward
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Ireland
11/04/2012 04:09 PM
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Re: IMPORTANT: Why the polls are wrong and Romney will win
OBAMA Will be re elected this I know.


hf
Anonymous Coward
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11/04/2012 04:29 PM
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Re: IMPORTANT: Why the polls are wrong and Romney will win
honest facts dont matter when the press, the judiciary and the administrative branches are corrupted.
The vote as an honest representation of the american public no longer exists.
When strangers free lie to you, you better prepare for them to make you die
Anonymous Coward
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11/04/2012 05:03 PM
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Re: IMPORTANT: Why the polls are wrong and Romney will win
Maybe the polls are being artificially inflated for Obama so that when they rig the voting and Obama wins, the general stoopid public can't say -- but Romney was so far ahead in the polls...

You know, kinda what Romney did to Ron Paul
Jericho9

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11/04/2012 05:09 PM
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Re: IMPORTANT: Why the polls are wrong and Romney will win
AP HEADLINE, NOV 3, 1980:

"Carter, Reagan too close to call, polls say."

Reagan wins 489 electoral votes.


We'll see what happens.

Media is spinning this HARD for Obama.
 Quoting: Super Bowl Dave


Exactly right SBD.
Anonymous Coward
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11/04/2012 05:09 PM
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Re: IMPORTANT: Why the polls are wrong and Romney will win
Anonymous Coward
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11/04/2012 05:10 PM
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Re: IMPORTANT: Why the polls are wrong and Romney will win
OP, I pray that you're right !

America cannot afford another 4 years of Hussein in power !
Anonymous Coward
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Canada
11/04/2012 05:14 PM
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Re: IMPORTANT: Why the polls are wrong and Romney will win
Romney in a Landslide

Weather anyone likes it or not, cares or not

I think Romney will even win Oregon, NH, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Maine, PA, Ohio and I even see him winning NJ

ya NJ

I Said it.

It's that bad when Bill Clinton is being Dispatched to PA tomorrow for not 1 but 4 events.

I Even think Romney will only Lose CA by 4 points.

Won't matter tho, US is still screwed!

Uncle Ben will be Printing Regardless!

otrike
Crazy Harriet

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11/04/2012 06:32 PM

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Re: IMPORTANT: Why the polls are wrong and Romney will win
Romney will win the election. Whether it will be reported honestly or stolen by the demos, we have yet to see.
Not another lousy foreign actor in the White House - Liam Neeson 2016! A foreign actor you can believe in.
Anonymous Coward
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11/07/2012 03:00 PM
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Re: IMPORTANT: Why the polls are wrong and Romney will win
Idiot
Notsure

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11/12/2012 04:26 PM
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Re: IMPORTANT: Why the polls are wrong and Romney will win
Romney in a Landslide

Weather anyone likes it or not, cares or not

I think Romney will even win Oregon, NH, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Maine, PA, Ohio and I even see him winning NJ

ya NJ

I Said it.

It's that bad when Bill Clinton is being Dispatched to PA tomorrow for not 1 but 4 events.

I Even think Romney will only Lose CA by 4 points.

Won't matter tho, US is still screwed!

Uncle Ben will be Printing Regardless!

 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 22787734



lmao
Anonymous Coward
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United States
11/13/2012 12:29 AM
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Re: IMPORTANT: Why the polls are wrong and Romney will win
So much for that bullshit.

Romney and Ryan lost all their homestates and every swing state except North Carolina.

News