IMPORTANT: Why the polls are wrong and Romney will win

If you were to look at all the polls today you would think that this election is Obama's to lose. That isn't true though and I want to explain the numbers a little bit better to show why Romney will win this.

First Gallup released some VERY important data a few days ago. [link to www.gallup.com]

Ever election year Gallup does research to show what the electorate will look like. I just want to highlight some of the things in this poll.

First we must remember that 2008 was a historic year for Democrats. I will be comparing the 2012 electorate with the 2008 one.

The first thing in this Gallup data is demographic changes between 2008 and 2012. Almost all these changes benefit Romney.

+1 Men from 2008. Men normally vote for Romney
-1 Women from 2008. Women normally vote for Obama
Hispanics are the same. Obama expected more Hispanic voters.
-1 for Blacks. Blacks vote over 90% Obama.
-1 for 18-29 y/o which vote for Obama
+1 for everyone over 50 which typically vote for Romney.

All this data translates into less votes for OBama. None of the current polls are accounting for this. They are all using old data from past elections to predict 2012.

Here is the most important data though.

In 2008 54% of people leaned Democrat and only 42% leaned Republican. Thats a spread of +12 for Democrats.

2012 is much different. 49% lean Republican and only 46% lean Democrat. A +3 advantage for the Republicans. Now remember this because we need to look at how the current polls are weighting their data. Lets have a look

CBS News/NY Times +5D
Pew Research +1D
ABC News/Wash. Post +7D
IBD/TIPP +7D
Rasmussen +3D
Gallup +1D

So as you can see all of the polls are still expecting more Democrats to turn out this year then Republicans even though the data is telling us otherwise. If you change all these polls to +3R like Gallup is predicting then Romney wins easily. This isn't even figuring in the demographic changes in the electorate or the fact that Romney is winning all polls with Independents by at least 10 points.

The reason the race looks so close right now is because the media elites believe that Obama is going to get record turnout again. Like in 2010, the media doesn't see the masses of angry people waiting to kick Obama out of office. The polls are wrong because the voter turnout models they are using are wrong. Watch and see come election day.

One more thing. I'm sure some will say, "Ok he may win Nationally but his problem is the electorial college. Obama is going to win the swing states."

The polling in swing states are skewed towards democrats again. Here's some examples:

CBS News/NY Times FL +8D
CBS News/NY Times OH +9D
CBS News/NY Times PA +8D
Franklin and Marshall PA +11D
Wash Post FL +4D
Wash Post OH +7D

Again the pollsters are expecting Obama supporters to turn out in much greater numbers than Romney supporters even though the Gallup data says other wise and Republican voters are much more motivated then Democrats.

If you believe that Obama will turn out the similar numbers then 2008 then Obama will win. If you think Republicans will turn out in numbers similar to 2010 then Romney will win.