The national polls which show a draw are weighted in favor of Democrats according to the 2008 turnout. That alone negates their accuracy.

Voter turnouts in a presidential election year are within 1% (for each party) of what they were in the midterm election 2 years earlier. That makes the 2010 election the proper model for weighting the polling numbers, and it makes Romney the clear winner.

The election will not be close, and Obamao will be packing for Hawaii.