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Message Subject BREAKING: Massive Storm Brutus now moving to the East Coast
Poster Handle DoorBert
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DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1241 AM CST FRI NOV 09 2012

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM A PORTION OF THE CNTRL
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...

AMPLIFIED SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE INTO
THE DAY 2 PERIOD. THE LARGE POSITIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH NOW MOVING
ONTO THE WEST COAST WILL EVOLVE ACROSS THE WRN STATES...REACHING THE
CNTRL PLAINS BY SATURDAY. VORT MAX AND ITS ACCOMPANYING UPPER JET
STREAK CURRENTLY OVER NRN CA WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH BEFORE EJECTING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
UPPER MS VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE CYCLONE OVER NEB/SD THAT WILL SHIFT NEWD INTO
MN SATURDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE SFC LOW WILL SWEEP
SEWD...LIKELY EXTENDING FROM WRN WI SWWD THROUGH NWRN OK AND WRN TX
BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD.

...CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH UPPER MS VALLEY AREA...

AN EML WITH 7.5-8 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAS ALREADY ADVECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH THE
MID MS VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES. ELY TRAJECTORIES FROM A LARGE
AREA OF CP HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ERN U.S. WILL SLOW BOUNDARY LAYER
RECOVERY OVER THE GULF...WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 50S RETURNING
THROUGH MOST OF THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE CNTRL AND SRN
PLAINS. LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN BENEATH THE WARM EML COMBINED WITH
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD MID-HIGH CLOUDS AS SUBTROPICAL MOIST PLUME
IS TAPPED BY THE ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH SUPPORT LIKELIHOOD OF A
STRONG CAP IN THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE DAY. THEREFORE...SURFACE
BASED THUNDERSTORM INITIATION WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
ZONE OF FRONTAL FORCING THAT WILL BE AUGMENTED BY DEEPER
CIRCULATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEWD EJECTING UPPER JET STREAK
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL INCREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY AS UPPER JET APPROACHES WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR IN EXCESS OF
70 KT AND LARGE HODOGRAPHS ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTENSIFYING LLJ.
INITIAL SURFACE BASED STORMS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...POSSIBLY BUILDING
SWWD INTO WRN TX OR NWRN OK OVERNIGHT. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO GROW
UPSCALE INTO LINE SEGMENTS...THROUGH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND LEWP
STRUCTURES ARE LIKELY GIVEN THE FAVORABLE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT.
DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
HOWEVER...A COUPLE TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

...SRN PLAINS...

OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP SWWD ALONG TRAILING PORTION OF THE FRONT
FROM WRN TX INTO NW OK. WITH DEEPER FRONTAL CIRCULATION PROMOTED BY
THE MIGRATING UPPER JET EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THIS
REGION...CONFIDENCE IN INITIATION IS NOT AS HIGH AS FARTHER NORTH.
HOWEVER...A CATEGORICAL RISK AREA MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FARTHER SW
IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

..DIAL.. 11/09/2012


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