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Message Subject BREAKING: Massive Storm Brutus now moving to the East Coast
Poster Handle DoorBert
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DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CST FRI NOV 09 2012

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN TX...SERN OK INTO A
PORTION OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...

LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY ON
SUNDAY. LEAD VORT MAX EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FEATURE WILL EJECT INTO
SRN ONTARIO EARLY IN THE DAY...WHILE FARTHER SOUTH A SECONDARY VORT
MAX WITHIN THE TROUGH BASE ADVANCES THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER
MS VALLEY REGION. PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE LEAD
SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO ONTARIO WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT ADVANCING
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...MID AND LOWER MS VALLEY AND SRN
PLAINS.

...NERN TX...SERN OK INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AREA...

AS SFC RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS FARTHER EAST...LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES OVER
THE WRN GULF WILL BECOME A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR RICHER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE /LOW 60S DEWPOINTS/ TO ADVECT THROUGH THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR ACROSS ERN TX...OK AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITH MORE LIMITED
MOISTURE FARTHER NORTH. LIKELIHOOD OF MULTILAYER CLOUDS...PARTLY A
RESULT OF STRATUS AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS...SHOULD LIMIT AMOUNT OF
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING AND OVERALL DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL.
NEVERTHELESS...MLCAPE FROM 800-1200 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
WITHIN ZONE OF RICHER MOISTURE RETURN FROM ERN TX...SERN OK INTO WRN
PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY. STORMS MAY BE ONGOING FROM THE MID MS
VALLEY SWWD INTO PORTIONS OF OK...AND POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
STORMS TO REDEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH INTO SERN OK AND NERN TX AS THE
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER.
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL
MAINTAIN STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE.
HOWEVER...PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE WILL LIKELY REMAIN LINEAR
SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR LEWP AND BOWING STRUCTURES. ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT AS STORMS DEVELOP
EWD...THOUGH A COUPLE OF TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN
FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS.

...MID MS VALLEY REGION...

A FORCED BAND OF CONVECTION EMBEDDED WITHIN A STRONG KINEMATIC
ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY.
MOISTURE RETURN AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED IN THIS
REGION THAN FARTHER SOUTH...AND THIS WILL PROBABLY SERVE TO MITIGATE
A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT. HAVE INCLUDED THIS REGION IN LOW SEVERE
PROBABILITIES DUE TO AT LEAST MODEST POTENTIAL FOR THE CONVECTIVE
BANDS TO TRANSFER HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

..DIAL.. 11/09/2012

[link to www.spc.noaa.gov]
 
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