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Message Subject BREAKING: Massive Storm Brutus now moving to the East Coast
Poster Handle Luisport
Post Content
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
112 PM EST FRI NOV 09 2012

VALID 12Z MON NOV 12 2012 - 12Z FRI NOV 16 2012

PRELIMINARY MEDIUM RANGE GRAPHICS MAINTAINED THE CONSISTENT
GFS/ECMWF/UKMET APPROACH WITH AN EXPANSIVE ARCTIC FRONTAL
PROGRESSION ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES...GREAT LAKES...AND INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH/SOUTHERN TEXAS. BIG NEWS WILL BE THE SHARP THERMAL
CONTRASTS AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT PRESSES EASTWARD
BETWEEN DAY 3-5.

FOR SOME DAYS NOW...THE H85 TEMP FORECASTS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD AND
BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE BEEN ON THE ORDER OF 10-15C. WITH SUCH A
SHARP CONTRAST IN TEMPERATURES...SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS...WINDS AND SURFACE-BASED LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
FRONT WILL PRODUCE DRAMATIC SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGES ALONG WITH
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE HEAVY RAINFALL SCENARIO SHOULD PLAY OUT
ACROSS THE OZARKS AND MIDWEST WITH A WIDE OPEN GULF AND LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE PLUME. DEEP-LAYERED WARM ADVECTION STREAMING NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE
READINGS THAT WILL BE A GOOD 15-20 F ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. BEHIND
THE FRONT...THE COMPLETE OPPOSITE. SOME 15-25F BELOW NORMAL.

FOR DAYS 6-7...AGREE WITH THE MID SHIFT THAT A GFS/GEFS MEAN AND
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN APPROACH APPEARS BEST TO HANDLE THE DEVELOPING
SPLIT-FLOW SCENARIO ALONG THE WEST COAST AND DESERT SOUTHWEST.
 
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