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Message Subject BREAKING: Massive Storm Brutus now moving to the East Coast
Poster Handle DoorBert
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DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1159 PM CST FRI NOV 09 2012

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE PLAINS
STATES/CENTRAL U.S....

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN U.S. IS PROGGED TO ADVANCE SLOWLY
EWD THIS PERIOD...INCREASINGLY AFFECTING THE CENTRAL THIRD OF THE
CONUS. AS THIS TROUGH SHIFTS EWD...A SURFACE LOW INITIALLY INVOF CO
SHOULD CONSOLIDATE AND SHIFT QUICKLY NEWD WITH TIME...REACHING THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER INVOF NRN MN LATE. AS THIS OCCURS...A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE A STRONG
COLD FRONT DRIVES EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS FRONT WILL FOCUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS -- AND SOME
SEVERE POTENTIAL -- DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

...UPPER MS/MID MO VALLEYS SSWWD INTO NWRN TX...
RATHER COMPLICATED SCENARIO IS UNFOLDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.
AHEAD OF THE LARGE/ADVANCING WRN TROUGH...AS VERY STRONG FLOW ALOFT
SUGGESTS SEVERE POTENTIAL...WHILE AN ONLY MODESTLY
UNSTABLE/LIKELY-TO-BE-CAPPED WARM SECTOR WILL LIKELY TEND TO HINDER
OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL.

ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT INVOF A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH/DRYLINE SHOULD OCCUR IN THE 22-23Z TIME FRAME INVOF WRN KS
AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...AS AFTERNOON HEATING
PERMITS DEVELOPMENT OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE. GIVEN
CAPPING LIKELY TO BE PRESENT...INITIAL DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY TO BE
ISOLATED...AND THUS -- GIVEN BACKGROUND FLOW FIELD -- LIKELY
SUPERCELLULAR. ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR HAIL...LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

WITH TIME...STORMS SHOULD EXPAND NNEWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT
ADVANCES ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY REGION -- AND PERHAPS NWD INTO MN
THOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD DIMINISH WITH NWD EXTENT. WITH
TIME...STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE TOWARD A FORCED LINEAR MODE INVOF THE
FRONT -- PARTICULARLY FROM NRN KS NWD...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL EXPECTED. FARTHER S INTO
KS/OK...STORMS MAY REMAIN MIXED IN MODE -- WITH SOME CELLULAR
CONVECTION POSSIBLY LINGERING THROUGH THE EVENING UNTIL A MORE
LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE EVOLVES LATE AS THE COLD FRONT DRIVES ACROSS
THIS REGION. GENERALLY...EXPECT STORM INTENSITY -- AND ASSOCIATED
SEVERE POTENTIAL -- TO DIMINISH SLOWLY FROM LATE EVENING ONWARD.

..GOSS/GARNER.. 11/10/2012


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