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Message Subject BREAKING: Massive Storm Brutus now moving to the East Coast
Poster Handle Luisport
Post Content
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2108
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1211 PM CST SAT NOV 10 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN SD...S-CNTRL ND...FAR NWRN NEB

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 101811Z - 102215Z

SUMMARY...BAND OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS WRN SD...S-CNTRL ND AND
FAR NWRN NEB. SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH/HR ARE LIKELY WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF PERIODS OF 2 INCHES/HR.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM SWRN CO NEWD INTO ERN SD/FAR WRN MN. TWO SURFACE LOWS
ARE LOCATED WITHIN THIS BROAD AREA...ONE CENTERED OVER SWRN CO AND
THE OTHER OVER E-CNTRL SD. RECENT RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE PERIODS OF MODERATE/HEAVY SNOW WITHIN A BAND
ORIENTED SW TO NE ACROSS WRN SD. ALSO OF NOTE...THE MODEL GUIDANCE
WAS TOO SLOW WITH THE ONSET OF THIS BAND.

SURFACE THETA-E FIELDS SHOW A WARM AIR ADVECTION NOSE FROM CNTRL IA
NWWD INTO CNTRL SD. THIS TRAJECTORY FAVORS ADDITIONAL MOIST
ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. STRONG FRONTOGENESIS IS ONGOING ACROSS
CNTRL NEB WITH THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AGEOSTROPHIC
CIRCULATION LIKELY PHASING WITH LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EXIT REGION OF A STRONG JET STREAK /CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NWRN NM
NEWD INTO WRN NEB/. THESE DYNAMICS SHOULD FAVOR THE CONTINUATION OF
THE SNOW BAND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION AS IT
MOVES EWD. SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH/HOUR WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF 2 INCHES/HOUR ARE ANTICIPATED.

..MOSIER.. 11/10/2012
 
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