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Message Subject BREAKING: Massive Storm Brutus now moving to the East Coast
Poster Handle Luisport
Post Content
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
622 AM CST SUN NOV 11 2012

.PUBLIC ZONE UPDATE...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS MOST
OF THE CWFA THIS MORNING. WITH THIS HAVE UPDATED CURRENT FORECAST TO
INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVER MOST OF THE CWFA FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY. 32/EE

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
EASTERN FL PANHANDLE AND EASTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO DEEP TROF/STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES...PROGGED TO REACH MS
RIVER VALLEY BY 06Z TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM A DEEP SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS BEGINNING LATE THIS MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH MIDDAY
MON. PW`S CLIMB TO 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES THROUGH EARLY MON WITH SOME
DRY AIR NOTED IN THE MID LEVELS OVERNIGHT MOSTLY OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWFA. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF...START TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF
THE CWFA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING WE COULD
SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS FORMING OVER THE GULF MOVING NORTHWEST
TOWARDS THE AL AND MS COAST. LATEST RADAR LOOPS ARE STARTING TO
INDICATE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WELL TO THE SOUTH. THE BETTER
INSTABILITY AND LIFT WILL MOVE INTO THE CWFA AFTER 12Z MON. FOR
TODAY EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS MAINLY FROM
THE SOUTHEAST. BETTER WINDS VELOCITIES NEAR THE COAST WILL MAKE
CONDITIONS FEEL A LITTLE COOLER LATER IN THE DAY ESPECIALLY NEAR OR
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. DUE TO GOOD MIXING THROUGH THE NIGHT
DON`T SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG OVERLAND. NEAR THE COAST PATCHY
AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY DUE TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE COOLER NEAR SHORE WATERS. DEWPTS CLIMB TO
THE MID 60S BY EARLY MON CONTINUING THROUGH MIDDAY. AS FOR TEMPS
WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER 00Z MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH TONIGHT.
32/EE

FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS EJECTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE THE COLD FRONT
WHICH HAS BEEN ADVANCING FROM THE PLAINS MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. 0-1 KM MLCAPES CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY
LOW...200-500 J/KG...AND LIMITED BY SOMEWHAT UNFAVORABLE LAPSE RATES
IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER. 0-1 KM HELICITIES WILL BE 150-225 M2/S2
NEAR 12Z MONDAY...BUT DURING A PERIOD OF VERY LOW INSTABILITY...THEN
DROPS TO 50-100 M2/S2 BY MIDDAY AND CONTINUES TO DROP THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME
DRY MID LEVEL AIR EARLY MONDAY MORNING BUT THIS IS ALSO DURING A
PERIOD OF VERY LOW INSTABILITY AND IS QUICKLY ELIMINATED LATER
MONDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...EXPECT GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS ON MONDAY. HAVE GONE WITH
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR MONDAY...THEN POPS TAPER OFF MONDAY
EVENING WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN
THE MID SEVENTIES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
RANGING TO UPPER SIXTIES FURTHER WEST. A DOME OF COOL AND DRY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN STATES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID THIRTIES OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTION TO AROUND FIFTY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE
LEVELS...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER SIXTIES...THEN LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL HAVE MID THIRTIES OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS TRENDING TO LOWER
TO MID FORTIES CLOSER TO THE COAST. /29
 
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