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HURRICANE FORCE WINDS CAN HIT EAST COAST TODAY AND TOMORROW!!!

 
Luisport

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11/05/2012 02:13 PM

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HURRICANE FORCE WINDS CAN HIT EAST COAST TODAY AND TOMORROW!!!
continuation of this thread: Thread: Hybrid Storm like Sandy Can Hit The East Coast By Wednesday!!! (Page 22)

Last Edited by Luisport on 11/07/2012 07:16 AM
Bluebird

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11/05/2012 02:15 PM

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Re: HURRICANE FORCE WINDS CAN HIT EAST COAST TODAY AND TOMORROW!!!
So what's the latest?

When is it expected this will come ashore?
One of the most important aspects of conspiracy theories is being able to discern when there isn't one.

Oh yeah, like you'd understand anyway.

Where are we going and why am I in this handbasket?. . .J. Handy
Luisport (OP)

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11/05/2012 02:15 PM

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Re: HURRICANE FORCE WINDS CAN HIT EAST COAST TODAY AND TOMORROW!!!
Luisport (OP)

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11/05/2012 02:17 PM

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Re: HURRICANE FORCE WINDS CAN HIT EAST COAST TODAY AND TOMORROW!!!
8 minCapital Weather Gang‏@capitalweather

Stress this is VERY difficult forecast. While we favor small impact for DC, slight change in track could change that: [link to www.washingtonpost.com]
Luisport (OP)

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11/05/2012 02:19 PM

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Re: HURRICANE FORCE WINDS CAN HIT EAST COAST TODAY AND TOMORROW!!!
Summary


NOAA indicates a 10-39 percent chance of 4 inches of snow well west and northwest of Washington, D.C. (NOAA) In summary, there are still four possible scenarios:

1) a heavy precipitation event that may have snow falling at times and possibly accumulating. The best chance of snow in this scenario would be in the colder suburbs to the northwest and west (with more elevation); that is, if the precipitation extends that far inland. [possible]

2) a light-moderate rainfall event with perhaps some snow mixing in but no accumulation [most likely]

3) a light rainfall event across the eastern suburbs [possible]

4) a complete miss [least likely]

My gut feeling is that a complete miss is the least likely of the bunch. I noted Sunday that we were probably 24 to 48 hours from having the models reach a consensus allowing us to make a definitive call about whether snow would fall in the D.C. area. A day later and we still may be 24 hours away from an answer.
[link to www.washingtonpost.com]
Luisport (OP)

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11/05/2012 02:20 PM

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Re: HURRICANE FORCE WINDS CAN HIT EAST COAST TODAY AND TOMORROW!!!
hf Thank you so much!!!
Luisport (OP)

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11/05/2012 02:22 PM

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Re: HURRICANE FORCE WINDS CAN HIT EAST COAST TODAY AND TOMORROW!!!
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

@MikeMasco @JacquiJeras lowest GFS surface pressure from full-resolution files is about 978 mb at 00Z on Thursday. [link to twitter.com]
2 hRyan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Wed evening, Nor'easter off coast equivalent to tropical storm conditions near coast. Heavy rain & wind + minor surge [link to twitter.com]
Luisport (OP)

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11/05/2012 02:24 PM

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Re: HURRICANE FORCE WINDS CAN HIT EAST COAST TODAY AND TOMORROW!!!
2 hThe Weather Channel‏@weatherchannel

Timeline of impacts for the upcoming #noreaster: [link to www.weather.com]
Luisport (OP)

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11/05/2012 02:26 PM

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Re: HURRICANE FORCE WINDS CAN HIT EAST COAST TODAY AND TOMORROW!!!
Weather Underground‏@wunderground

Dr. Masters says, "Nor'easter coming Wednesday and Thursday" [link to www.wunderground.com] #noreaster
Luisport (OP)

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11/05/2012 02:27 PM

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Re: HURRICANE FORCE WINDS CAN HIT EAST COAST TODAY AND TOMORROW!!!
An early-season Nor'easter will form off the coast of South Carolina on Tuesday evening. Once over the warm waters off the coast, the low will intensify, spreading heavy rains of 1 - 2" over coastal North Carolina on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. The storm will accelerate to the north-northeast on Wednesday and pull in cold air from Canada, and intensify into a medium-strength Nor'easter with a central pressure near 984 mb by Wednesday evening. While the exact track of the storm still has considerable uncertainty, the models are pretty unified on the timing and strength of this storm. A 12-hour period of strong winds of 40 - 45 mph will likely affect portions of the coast from Maryland to Massachusetts. A more westerly track, as currently predicted by our top model, the European ECMWF model, would likely result in the storm's strongest winds affecting the New Jersey coast. A storm surge of 2 - 4 feet would likely hit the New Jersey coast, and a storm surge of 3 - 5 feet would likely impact the western end of Long Island Sound. These surges would be accompanied by high, battering waves, capable of causing moderate to locally severe erosion along the coastal areas pounded by Hurricane Sandy last week. Fortunately, the high tides this week will be some of the lowest of the month, since we are midway between when the new moon and full moon occur. A more easterly track for the storm, as predicted by the GFS model, would put the Nor'easter's strongest winds along eastern Long Island and coastal Massachusetts, resulting in lower storm surges for New Jersey and New York City. Accompanying the storm will be a swath of 2 - 3" of rain, with the heaviest rains falling over Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. The storm isn't going to tap into a large reservoir of cold, Arctic air, which will limit its intensity and snowfall amounts. Snow is not expected in coastal area, but the Nor'easter has the potential to bring more than a foot of snow to mountain areas of New England.
[link to www.wunderground.com]
Luisport (OP)

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11/05/2012 02:28 PM

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Re: HURRICANE FORCE WINDS CAN HIT EAST COAST TODAY AND TOMORROW!!!
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW
YORK...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

...WINTER STORM POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TUESDAY AND TRACK NORTHEAST UP THE EAST COAST AND BECOME AN
EARLY SEASON WINTER STORM. IF THE STORM TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
COAST...CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA COULD SEE A
SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING
INTO THURSDAY. RAIN COULD ALSO MIX WITH THE SNOW ESPECIALLY AT THE
START OF THE STORM.

THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO DETERMINE EXACTLY HOW MUCH
SNOW WILL FALL OR WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR. LATEST
MODEL TRENDS INDICATE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW YORK PRIMARILY EAST OF I-81 AND ACROSS NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA. THE GREATEST SNOWFALLS WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR IN
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN CATSKILLS AND POCONOS. IF
YOU ARE PLANNING TRAVEL WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY IN CENTRAL NEW
YORK OR NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...YOU SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE LATEST FORECASTS AND LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WINTER STORM WATCHES
OR ADVISORIES.
Luisport (OP)

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11/05/2012 02:30 PM

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Re: HURRICANE FORCE WINDS CAN HIT EAST COAST TODAY AND TOMORROW!!!
So what's the latest?

When is it expected this will come ashore?
 Quoting: Bluebird


hf The models are not certain yet but it seams that it will not come ashore...
Anonymous Coward
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11/05/2012 02:45 PM
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Re: HURRICANE FORCE WINDS CAN HIT EAST COAST TODAY AND TOMORROW!!!
Carp may come ashore also perhaps!
Luisport (OP)

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11/05/2012 02:52 PM

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Re: HURRICANE FORCE WINDS CAN HIT EAST COAST TODAY AND TOMORROW!!!
AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

From @nwsbayarea: Highs on Thursday could be 30 degrees cooler than today in some areas!

1 hAccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

RT @justinweather: I spoke with my friend in NY w/o power. He said it was 52F in his living room at noon.
Luisport (OP)

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11/05/2012 02:56 PM

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Re: HURRICANE FORCE WINDS CAN HIT EAST COAST TODAY AND TOMORROW!!!
6 minCapital Weather Gang‏@capitalweather

If Reagan Natl drops to 32 tonight, will be ~2 weeks ahead of "average" 1st freeze last 30 years:
14 minCapital Weather Gang‏@capitalweather

Freeze warning for entire DC/Balt area tonight. Say goodbye to the growing season for most:
Luisport (OP)

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11/05/2012 03:01 PM

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Re: HURRICANE FORCE WINDS CAN HIT EAST COAST TODAY AND TOMORROW!!!
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...EAST TEXAS AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS PORTIONS
OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...BOTH INSTABILITY AND LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR ARE QUITE LIMITED...THEREFORE...ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS
FOR THE WEEKEND WITH THE SYSTEM LIKELY NOT AFFECTING OUR REGION
UNTIL SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM AND THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...SOME
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...AMATEUR RADIO
OPERATORS...AND STORM SPOTTERS WILL NOT BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON
OR TONIGHT.
Luisport (OP)

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11/05/2012 03:15 PM

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Re: HURRICANE FORCE WINDS CAN HIT EAST COAST TODAY AND TOMORROW!!!
The Nws Storm Prediction Center Has Issued A
Severe Thunderstorm Watch For Portions Of

Southwest Louisiana
Southeast Texas
Coastal Waters

Effective This Monday Afternoon And Evening From 210 PM Until 900
Pm CST.

Hail To 2 Inches In Diameter... Thunderstorm Wind Gusts To 70
Mph... And Dangerous Lightning Are Possible In These Areas.

Discussion... Thunderstorms Are Expected To Develop This Afternoon
Along/Ahead Of An Approaching Cold Front Over Southeast TX And
Southwest LA. The Air Mass In This Region Has Heated/Destabilized
With Mucape Values Over 2000 J/Kg. Despite Relatively Weak Low
Level Winds... Favorable Deep Layer Shear And Mid Level Lapse Rates
Will Promote The Risk Of Hail And Damaging Winds In The Strongest
Cells.
Luisport (OP)

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11/05/2012 03:18 PM

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Jim Cantore‏@JimCantore

NEW #Severe watch for TX/LA till 9pm: [link to www.spc.noaa.gov] … #TXwx #LAwx
Laura Bow

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11/05/2012 03:21 PM
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Hmm, looks like where I'm at in south central PA is included on weather.com's map but no alerts on the page for my area yet.
Luisport (OP)

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11/05/2012 03:25 PM

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Re: HURRICANE FORCE WINDS CAN HIT EAST COAST TODAY AND TOMORROW!!!
While a powerful nor'easter lashes the Sandy-ravaged coast, snow will fall over a narrow swath of the interior Northeast during the middle to latter part of the week.

A storm that will swing off the East coast on Tuesday will intensify rapidly near the mid-Atlantic coast on Wednesday.

High winds, coastal flooding and torrential rainfall will impact the mid-Atlantic coast, including the Sandy-battered New Jersey and Long Island.
Colder air across the interior Northeast will allow snow to mix in or fall alone by Wednesday afternoon. A narrow band of snow will develop on the backside of the storm from northern Virginia, northern West Virginia, east-central Pennsylvania to western Massachusetts and southern Vermont.

By Wednesday evening, snow may reach western suburbs of Washington, D.C., and Baltimore, Md.

A wintry mix and snow will spread farther north across New York state and northern New England overnight Wednesday into Thursday.
Temperatures may even be cold enough for some snow to mix in across far northwestern suburbs of Philadelphia and New York City on Wednesday night.

One to three inches of snow will fall across a large corridor of the Northeast, from northern Virginia to New England. Higher amounts of snow, 3-6 inches, may accumulate over the mountains of northeastern Pennsylvania and southern New York and the mountains of northern New England.
Light snow can stick to roads, making them slick and dangerous Wednesday night into Thursday.

Meanwhile, there are concerns that freezing rain will mix in with snow and sleet across northern New England, while warmer air rides up and over colder air at the surface.

Portions of Vermont, New Hampshire and western Maine may be at risk for up to 0.25 of an inch of icing.

The weight of snow, sleet and ice may be enough to down some tree branches onto power lines. Scattered power outages are not out of the question for northern New England.

High winds could add further stress to tree limbs across the interior Northeast, while also contributing to wintry AccuWeather.com RealFeel® temperatures.
[link to www.accuweather.com]
Luisport (OP)

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11/05/2012 03:38 PM

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Joe Bastardi‏@BigJoeBastardi

Feel that this storm threat is not understood.noteworthy for early, power outing snow and major problems in coastal areas exposed by Sandy
Luisport (OP)

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11/05/2012 03:42 PM

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1 minJoe Bastardi‏@BigJoeBastardi

Basically snow is targeting the heart of inland power outage areas, coast targeted for high winds,2-4 ft surge heavy rain,(may end as snow
Laura Bow

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11/05/2012 03:44 PM
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Joe Bastardi‏@BigJoeBastardi

Feel that this storm threat is not understood.noteworthy for early, power outing snow and major problems in coastal areas exposed by Sandy
 Quoting: Luisport


This is true....heck, those two storms in Feb 2010 that they misjudged dropped 2 ft of snow each time within a few days of each other, I think we were originally only supposed to get a few inches.
Anonymous Coward
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11/05/2012 04:12 PM
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bump
Luisport (OP)

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11/05/2012 04:14 PM

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2 minAccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

Cool air in the West means that a warm-up is in store for the East by next weekend. [link to www.accuweather.com]
Luisport (OP)

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11/05/2012 04:25 PM

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Re: HURRICANE FORCE WINDS CAN HIT EAST COAST TODAY AND TOMORROW!!!
NYC forecast discussion for Wednesday/Wednesday night storm in the New York City Area...

For the Snow lovers...

MODELS BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON A SOLN FOR THE STORM. THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF/GFS ENSEMBLE/GGEM ARE ALL SIMILAR WITH THE DEVELOPMENTAL STAGES OF THE STORM TIL 00Z THU. SOLNS THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFT THE MATURATION OF THE SYSTEM.

THE CONSENSUS IS THAT A MID-UPR 980S LOW WILL DEVELOP ABOUT 150-160 MILES ESE OF CAPE MAY NJ BY 00Z THU. WITH A 1030 OR SO HIGH OVER LABRADOR...WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS THEY ADJUST TO THE PRES DURING THE DAY. THESE POWERFUL WINDS WILL LAST THRU THE EVE. THE CURRENT DATA SUGGESTS GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH IN THE CORE OF THESE WINDS. AFT THE DEEPENING PHASE OF THE STORM WED NGT...THE LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK NEWD BUT WILL REMAIN AN OCCLUDED WIND MACHINE...PRODUCING GUSTS IN THE 40-55 MPH RANGE THRU THU. EXACT PROXIMITY TO THE COAST AND DEPTH OF THE LOW WILL DETERMINE THE ACTUAL MAGNITUDE OF THE WINDS.

DYNAMIC COOLING IN THE NWRN QUAD OF THE STORM WILL PRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE COLDEST SOLN AND IS TRENDING COLDER. THE PRIME CANDIDATE FOR SIG ACCUMS WOULD BE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NJ AND INTO THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY. THE FCST HAS BEEN TRENDED COOLER. A MIX HAS BEEN INTRODUCED INTO PORTIONS OF THE CITY AND COASTS...WITH NO ACCUMS...AND LIGHT ACCUMS HAVE BEEN INDICATED ACROSS THE HIGHER INTERIOR SPOTS.

BASED ON HOW THIS STORM IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE...AN EWD TREND IN THE TRACK WOULD RESULT IN MORE SNOW AND LESS WIND.

AS THE STORM DRIFTS PAST AND AWAY THU-THU NGT...PERIODS OF LIGHTER PCPN CAN BE EXPECTED. THERE COULD BE A FEW EMBEDDED MDT BANDS IN THIS ACTIVITY...BUT WIDESPREAD MDT-HVY PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED. AS MENTIONED ABV...THE GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE DAY AND
DIMINISH THU NGT.

AS ALWAYS...THIS STORM IS STILL A FEW DAYS AWAY SO CHANGES/UPDATES
CAN BE EXPECTED.

A HIGH WIND WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FOR WED-WED NGT.

NO WINTER WEATHER WATCHES ATTM. A SNOW TOTAL GRAPHIC HAS BEEN
POSTED.
DoorBert

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11/05/2012 04:25 PM

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bump
Anonymous Coward
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11/05/2012 04:34 PM
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Luisport (OP)

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11/05/2012 04:38 PM

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1 minCapital Weather Gang‏@capitalweather

Winds may reach 30-45 mph, w/ gusts to 60 mph in coastal areas slammed by #Sandy in NJ/NY: [link to wapo.st]

2 minCapital Weather Gang‏@capitalweather

Storm, flood and high wind watches issued ahead of Nor’easter in Sandy-stricken areas, new post: [link to wapo.st]
Luisport (OP)

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11/05/2012 04:39 PM

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1 minCapital Weather Gang‏@capitalweather

NWS: Nor'easter is "particularly dangerous situation" for areas hardest hit by #Sandy [link to wapo.st]
Luisport (OP)

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11/05/2012 04:42 PM

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Capital Weather Gang‏@capitalweather

NWS: seas may be 7.5-8 ft above mean low water level along DE/NJ coastline from Nor'easter late Wed: [link to wapo.st]

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