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HURRICANE FORCE WINDS CAN HIT EAST COAST TODAY AND TOMORROW!!!

 
Luisport (OP)

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11/05/2012 04:50 PM

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Re: HURRICANE FORCE WINDS CAN HIT EAST COAST TODAY AND TOMORROW!!!
Capital Weather Gang‏@capitalweather

Note: some models have been showing a weaker, later forming storm today. This would spare NY/NJ from worst impacts: [link to wapo.st]
Luisport (OP)

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11/05/2012 04:51 PM

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Re: HURRICANE FORCE WINDS CAN HIT EAST COAST TODAY AND TOMORROW!!!
1 minRyan Maue‏@RyanMaue

A foot of snow for the Jersey shore by Thursday morning? Huh? What is NAM 18z thinking? [link to twitter.com]
Luisport (OP)

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11/05/2012 04:52 PM

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Re: HURRICANE FORCE WINDS CAN HIT EAST COAST TODAY AND TOMORROW!!!
HPC is still a thorn in your side....


A STORM ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO THE
EASTERN FLORIDA COAST AND BEGIN TO DEEPEN. THE SYSTEM WILL TRAVEL
NORTHWARD ... PARALLELING THE EAST COAST NORTHWARD TO OFF THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE STORM WILL PRODUCE
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OVER THE INTERIOR CENTRAL GULF COAST THAT
WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHEAST ... THEN NORTHWARD ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC BY WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION
... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ... SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES
... WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST EASTWARD TO FLORIDA
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
Luisport (OP)

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11/05/2012 04:54 PM

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Re: HURRICANE FORCE WINDS CAN HIT EAST COAST TODAY AND TOMORROW!!!
lowest dipicted pressure i can find is 973mb in 72 hrs [link to polarmet.mps.ohio-state.edu]
Luisport (OP)

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11/05/2012 04:55 PM

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Re: HURRICANE FORCE WINDS CAN HIT EAST COAST TODAY AND TOMORROW!!!
"As two waves in the atmosphere merge off the Mid-Atlantic coast, one from the north and one from the south, a major Nor’easter will rapidly develop Wednesday. High winds, rough seas, and coastal flooding are a threat from the Delmarva Peninsula into New England - many of the same areas devastated by Superstorm Sandy."
Read more! By Jason Samenow

I'm really sorry for all those poor people already shivering in the cold after Sandy.
[link to www.washingtonpost.com]
Luisport (OP)

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11/05/2012 04:57 PM

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Re: HURRICANE FORCE WINDS CAN HIT EAST COAST TODAY AND TOMORROW!!!
59 sRyan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Whatever falls either liquid or snow/slop will be heavy -- with temps in the 30s, but low is nudged east, less wind. [link to twitter.com]
Luisport (OP)

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11/05/2012 05:01 PM

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Re: HURRICANE FORCE WINDS CAN HIT EAST COAST TODAY AND TOMORROW!!!
Nice graphic presentation on pending nor'easter. Just click download: [link to www.sugarsync.com (secure)]
Luisport (OP)

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11/05/2012 05:02 PM

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Re: HURRICANE FORCE WINDS CAN HIT EAST COAST TODAY AND TOMORROW!!!
3 minAccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

Locally strong thunderstorms threatening areas from coastal Louisiana to eastern Texas. [link to www.accuweather.com]
Luisport (OP)

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11/05/2012 05:06 PM

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Re: HURRICANE FORCE WINDS CAN HIT EAST COAST TODAY AND TOMORROW!!!
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

If ECMWF misses on this Nor'easter, it has much bigger mess for next Monday over Plains. Major mess. [link to twitter.com]

6 minRyan Maue‏@RyanMaue

@JoePraino GFS 18z almost a non-event. Brief snowfall. [link to twitter.com]

Last Edited by Luisport on 11/05/2012 05:09 PM
Luisport (OP)

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11/05/2012 05:07 PM

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Re: HURRICANE FORCE WINDS CAN HIT EAST COAST TODAY AND TOMORROW!!!
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

@USWeatherExpert looks like combination ice storm, severe weather with several lows riding up, over E. Atlantic block. Very active period.

Last Edited by Luisport on 11/05/2012 05:08 PM
Luisport (OP)

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11/05/2012 05:19 PM

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Re: HURRICANE FORCE WINDS CAN HIT EAST COAST TODAY AND TOMORROW!!!
[link to meteocentre.com] [link to meteocentre.com] [link to meteocentre.com]
Anonymous Coward
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11/05/2012 09:01 PM
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Re: HURRICANE FORCE WINDS CAN HIT EAST COAST TODAY AND TOMORROW!!!
The Weather Channel just said that NY/NJ have the possibility of seeing 50-70 m,p.h. winds with the Nor'easter that is expected to hit the area beginning early morning on Wednesday, Nov. 7th.

Here is the Hazardous Weather Advisory from NOAA:

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
410 PM EST MON NOV 5 2012

NJZ006-106-108-NYZ072-074-075-080-081-178-179-062115-
HUDSON-EASTERN ESSEX-EASTERN UNION-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
410 PM EST MON NOV 5 2012

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND
SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE 20S AND 30S.
THOSE WITHOUT POWER SHOULD PLAN FOR ANOTHER COLD NIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

HIGH WIND WATCH.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH.

[link to forecast.weather.gov]
Bumper
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11/06/2012 12:39 AM
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Re: HURRICANE FORCE WINDS CAN HIT EAST COAST TODAY AND TOMORROW!!!
BIG BUMP FORWARD... to November 6
abeliever

User ID: 17868616
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11/06/2012 12:49 AM

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Re: HURRICANE FORCE WINDS CAN HIT EAST COAST TODAY AND TOMORROW!!!
The Weather Channel just said that NY/NJ have the possibility of seeing 50-70 m,p.h. winds with the Nor'easter that is expected to hit the area beginning early morning on Wednesday, Nov. 7th.

Here is the Hazardous Weather Advisory from NOAA:

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
410 PM EST MON NOV 5 2012

NJZ006-106-108-NYZ072-074-075-080-081-178-179-062115-
HUDSON-EASTERN ESSEX-EASTERN UNION-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
410 PM EST MON NOV 5 2012

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND
SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE 20S AND 30S.
THOSE WITHOUT POWER SHOULD PLAN FOR ANOTHER COLD NIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

HIGH WIND WATCH.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH.

[link to forecast.weather.gov]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 919411


My daughter just texted me from NYC. Her apartment building is out of oil and therefore NO HEAT! Oil deliveries are not coming into NYC as fast as usual because of Sandy!

Now with this mess headed north, gosh...


Thanks Luisport!bump

Last Edited by abeliever on 11/06/2012 12:51 AM
Isis One

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11/06/2012 01:28 AM

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Re: HURRICANE FORCE WINDS CAN HIT EAST COAST TODAY AND TOMORROW!!!
2 minAccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

Cool air in the West means that a warm-up is in store for the East by next weekend. [link to www.accuweather.com]
 Quoting: Luisport


Thank God! I left a couple comments on other thread Luis, mostly thanks for the updateshf
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me
Luisport (OP)

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11/06/2012 03:33 AM

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Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

00Z NAM-12km still shows 6'' of snow to fall close to NJ coast, up thru NYC, & north. Will be wet & may not all stick [link to twitter.com]
Luisport (OP)

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11/06/2012 03:34 AM

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Re: HURRICANE FORCE WINDS CAN HIT EAST COAST TODAY AND TOMORROW!!!
Joe Bastardi‏@BigJoeBastardi

I dont trust the GFS ever on any storm on the east coast. Let see how ECMWF looks tonight. WRF a bit further west at 00z ugly NJ to New Eng

4 hJoe Bastardi‏@BigJoeBastardi

GFS sending Sandy Sequel further east and leaving door open for escape to previously ravaged areas. Will wait till tomorrow to adjust
Luisport (OP)

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11/06/2012 03:35 AM

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Re: HURRICANE FORCE WINDS CAN HIT EAST COAST TODAY AND TOMORROW!!!
Weather Underground‏@wunderground

Citing high winds and possible flooding due to upcoming Nor'easter, #Brick, NJ officials are evacuating low-lying areas of the town.
DoorBert

User ID: 870568
United States
11/06/2012 05:07 AM
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Re: HURRICANE FORCE WINDS CAN HIT EAST COAST TODAY AND TOMORROW!!!
Looks like Philly will take the brunt of the snow - about 7"

[link to raleighwx.americanwx.com]
DoorBert

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11/06/2012 05:19 AM
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Re: HURRICANE FORCE WINDS CAN HIT EAST COAST TODAY AND TOMORROW!!!
GFS & NAM are both trending to a system that is not as powerful as was being forecast 24 hrs ago.

Also looks to being swinging a little more east than previous runs.

[link to www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov]

[link to www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov]


...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST TUE ONWARD...

PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF/21Z SREF MEAN COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE

DURING THE DAY TUE THE NAM IS SLIGHTLY NWD/WWD OF CONSENSUS WITH
THE WRN ATLC SFC LOW. GUIDANCE CATCHES UP TO THE NAM FCST BY WED
WITH THE 21Z SREF MEAN/12Z ECMWF BEING THE SOLNS THAT MATCH MOST
CLOSELY TO THE NAM WITH THE SFC LOW TRACK/TIMING FROM LATE WED
ONWARD. MEANWHILE FROM TUE NIGHT ONWARD THE GFS TRACKS THE SYSTEM
FARTHER NEWD THAN THE NAM CLUSTER... WHILE THE UKMET THUS FAR
TRACKS THE SYSTEM FARTHER OFFSHORE THAN EVEN THE GFS. THE 00Z
CANADIAN REG GEM SHOWS A TRACK REACHING SLIGHTLY SEWD OF THE NAM
CLUSTER BY F48 LATE WED. THE CANADIAN GLBL HAS ADJUSTED FROM ITS
12Z RUN THAT WAS A SWRN EXTREME TO A TRACK NOT FAR FROM THE GFS
THRU LATE THU. THE 18Z GEFS MEAN IS CLOSE TO A NAM/GFS COMPROMISE
TRACK WED INTO EARLY THU BEFORE TRENDING TO THE GFS. THE 00Z GEFS
MEAN TRENDS E/NE OF THE GFS BY THU. THE 00Z ECMWF IS A LITTLE EWD
OF THE 12Z RUN ON WED AND THEN SE/S OF THE OLD RUN THEREAFTER.

THE PREVAILING TREND OF GUIDANCE AS A WHOLE OVER THE PAST 12-24
HRS IS SOMEWHAT FARTHER OFFSHORE. WHILE YDAY THERE WAS NOT A
PERFECT CORRELATION BETWEEN HOW SOLNS HANDLED THE SYSTEM OF
INTEREST VERSUS THE UPSTREAM ENERGY AMPLIFYING INTO THE EAST... IT
APPEARS THAT THE GENERAL AMPLIFYING TREND WITH THAT UPSTREAM
ENERGY IS HELPING TO SEND THE WRN ATLC SYSTEM ON A SOMEWHAT WIDER
ARC AND WITH WEAKER DEPTH DUE TO LESS CONSOLIDATION OF THE TWO
PIECES OF MID LVL ENERGY. POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR GUIDANCE TO
OSCILLATE BACK AS HAS SOMETIMES OCCURRED WITH OTHER SUCH SYSTEMS
BUT TRENDS THAT OCCUR THIS CLOSE TO THE VALID TIME ARE
SUFFICIENTLY RELIABLE TO GIVE AT LEAST HALF WEIGHT TOWARD. THE
SLOW TIMING OF THE 00Z ECMWF FAVORS NO MORE THAN 1/3
CONSIDERATION. WILL ULTIMATELY RECOMMEND A COMPROMISE AMONG THE
GFS/ECMWF/21Z SREF MEAN TO YIELD A SFC LOW TRACK THAT IS STILL IN
THE WRN HALF OF THE SPREAD. GIVEN LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS FOR
STRENGTH THERE IS MINIMAL SUPPORT FOR THE DEEPER NAM ON WED.

[link to www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov]
DoorBert

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11/06/2012 05:23 AM
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Looking at about 40 to 45 knot winds along the Long Island and Jersey coasts

[link to www.twisterdata.com]

[link to www.twisterdata.com]
DoorBert

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11/06/2012 05:30 AM
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Re: HURRICANE FORCE WINDS CAN HIT EAST COAST TODAY AND TOMORROW!!!
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
330 AM EST TUE NOV 6 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN NEW YORK STATE THIS MORNING WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BEFORE MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST OF THE
SOUTHEAST STATES TODAY WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST...PASSING
EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. THE LOW THEN PASSES SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA LATER THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES FRIDAY WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING MILDER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER AS IT
CONTINUES TO ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. DECENT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
WILL ALLOW FOR AMPLE SUNSHINE WITH A VERY DRY COLUMN. LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL ENSUE BY LATER THIS MORNING AS THE HIGH
CENTERS ITSELF OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

WITH THE INVERSION IN PLACE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MIXING
SO THE WINDS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT COMPARED TO MONDAY.
TEMPERATURE WISE WE SHOULD BE ABOUT AS WARM/COOL AS WE WERE ON
MONDAY, GIVEN THE ALMOST FULL SUNSHINE. IF WE WERE ABLE TO MIX A BIT
HIGHER THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED TODAY WE COULD CLIMB A FEW MORE
DEGREES...MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL UNDERGO CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE NC COAST LATER
TODAY. THE SUPPORTING WAVE, WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH THE SE
COAST WAVE, IS STILL ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE WEST.

AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES
TOWARDS THE NORTH AND DEEPENS A BIT. MODELS ARE SHOWING DECENT
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN THE MID-LEVELS THAT WE BRING CHANCE POPS IN
A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
OUR SOUTHERN ZONES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR AN ALL RAIN EVENT BUT
THERE IS COLD AIR TO THE NORTH THAT MAY GET TRAPPED AGAINST THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE WEST...COLD AIR DAMMING. ALL DEPENDS ON THE
TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM TOMORROW MORNING.

WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND WINDS OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. A BLEND OF THE MET/MAVMOS
WORKED BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DUE TO SURFACE LOW TRACK DIFFERENCES EARLY THIS MORNING...WE WILL BE
STANDING PAT ON THE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. PERHAPS THE BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WILL BE EXPANDING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH MASS FIELDS FOR WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA EARLY THIS
MORNING PHASES WITH THE CLOSING MID LEVEL SYSTEM OVER NORTHWEST
ALABAMA. THEY ARE SIMILAR WITH THE CLOSED MID LEVEL SYSTEM WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE ARE ENOUGH DIFFERENCES IN THE
WIND AND PRECIPITATION FIELDS TO RESULT IN A LOWER THAN AVERAGE
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS...THE HIGH
WIND WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO STAY IN PLACE WITH THE EARLY MORNING
FORECAST PACKAGE.

THE 0000 UTC MODEL SUITE IS...FOR THE MOST PART...FURTHER EAST WITH
THE SURFACE DEVELOPMENT AND THE STRONGEST WINDS FIELD (THE 0000 UTC
NAM IS THE EXCEPTION HERE). WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS NOW JUST A BIT FURTHER OFFSHORE...THE CORE OF THE
STRONGEST LOW LEVEL WINDS (UP THROUGH 925 MB) REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. THE CHANGE WOULD
IMPLY THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS WOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA...WITH
THE HIGH WIND POTENTIAL A LITTLE LOWER (BASED ON THE 0000 UTC
OUTPUT).

MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOWS THE LOWERED
POTENTIAL...AS THE DEPTH OF THE MIXED LAYER MAY NOT BE AS DEEP AS
EARLIER THOUGH. THIS WOULD BE PRIMARILY DUE TO THE COOLER AND
SHALLOWER BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THE TRACK IS STILL
PROBABLY NOT SET...THERE IS STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TOP LET THE
HIGH WIND WATCH REMAIN IN PLACE.

DRY AIR IN PLACE SHOULD SLOW THE INTRODUCTION OF PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE SYSTEM STARTS TO RESPOND TO THE
CLOSED MID LEVEL SYSTEM. AS THE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
ROTATES BACK TOWARD THE WEST AROUND THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM...BANDS OF
PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE WEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE DRY AIR
IN PLACE SHOULD SLOW THE PROCESS...AND COULD EVEN STOP THE WESTWARD
PROGRESS IN THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND SOUTHERN POCONOS DURING THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON.

PRECIPITATION TYPE COULD END UP BEING MORE INTERESTING THAT PREVIOUS
FORECASTS. THE 0000 UTC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD AIR IN
ALREADY IN PLACE...AND DOES NOT REALLY MOVE OUT WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM. THERE IS EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN PLACE DURING
THE EARLY PART OF THE PRECIPITATION...AND DYNAMIC COOLING BECOMES
IMPORTANT LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY END UP BEING TOO WARM FOR SNOW TO ACCUMULATE
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DUE TO
EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY...HIGHS WERE
GENERALLY 2 TO 4 DEGREES BELOW THE MOS BLEND.

THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE PROBLEM COULD OCCUR WEDNESDAY EVENING.
DURING THAT TIME...DYNAMIC COOLING WILL BE AT IT PEAK...WITH
LOWERING HEIGHTS RESULTING IN AN OVERALL COOLER COLUMN. MOST MODELS
SHOWS THE BEST MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING SETTING UP ACROSS NEW
JERSEY DURING THE EVENING. THIS IMPLIES THE BEST CHANCE OF
BANDING...AND THE BEST VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE BEST DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONES ACROSS NEW JERSEY DURING THE
EVENING AS WELL.

ALL OF THIS ADDS UP TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY DURING WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THIS IS THE AREA WITH THE BEST OVERLAPPING MID LEVEL
FORCING AND DENDRITIC GROWTH. IF THIS WERE A MONTH LATER...THERE
WOULD BE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AND GROUND TEMPERATURES MAKE FORECASTING
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HERE PROBLEMATIC. RIGHT NOW...IT WOULD APPEAR
COLDER SURFACES WOULD HAVE A BETTER CHANCE TO SEE SOME
ACCUMULATIONS...WITH TRAVEL SURFACES TOO WARM FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION.

FOR NOW...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE
ABOVEMENTIONED AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE IS STILL
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING AMOUNTS. LOWS WERE MAINLY BASED
ON THE MOS BLEND...AND DROPPED A TAD DUE TO THE COOL COLUMN.

MOS MODELS SHOW THE BEST PRESSURE GRADIENT AND AND STRONGEST 925 MB
WIND BETWEEN 0000 UTC AND 0600 UTC. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...MODELS
ARE STARTING TO HINT THAT THE BEST LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD MAY STAY
JUST OFFSHORE...BUT THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THE HIGH WIND WATCH RIGHT NOW.

AS THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM TRUNDLES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY...THE
STEADIEST PRECIPITATION SHOULD END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THE
COLUMN MAY STILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION THURSDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...WITH THE LOSS OF SIGNIFICANT UPWARD LIFT WITH THE
MID LEVEL SYSTEM...THE PRECIPITATION TYPE PROBLEMS PROBABLY SHIFT TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DRIER AIR WILL TRY TO GET INTO THE REGION DURING
THE AFTERNOON...AND THIS MAY FINALLY ALLOW THE SHOWERS TO END
GRADUALLY DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN AREAS.

THE COLUMN GRADUALLY WARMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING SUGGEST THAT THERE WOULD NOT BE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF TEMPERATURE RECOVERY IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THIS
IN MIND...HIGHS WERE GENERALLY BASED ON THE COLDER NAM MOS NUMBERS.

THE BEST GRADIENT SHOULD OCCUR IN THE MORNING HOURS...WITH WIND
GUSTS NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN SECTION AS
WELL AS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE GRADIENT SLOWLY BACKS OFF IN
THE AFTERNOON...BUT THIS MAY END UP BEING MITIGATED BY DEEPER MIXED
LAYERS. IN ANY EVENT...THURSDAY AFTERNOON STILL LOOKS WINDY...BUT
GUSTS SHOULD DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS ALL AREAS.

DRYING SHOULD RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT...AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS START TO
RISE IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE...AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE IS SOME
INDICATION THAT MOISTURE COULD TRY TO POOL ALONG A DEVELOPING
SURFACE WARM FRONT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...BUT
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PART OF THE FORECAST. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND SUGGEST HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S...
WHICH WOULD 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

[link to forecast.weather.gov]
DoorBert

User ID: 870568
United States
11/06/2012 05:38 AM
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Re: HURRICANE FORCE WINDS CAN HIT EAST COAST TODAY AND TOMORROW!!!
Can see the trough sweeping down from mid MS valley into GA now.

[link to www.meteo.psu.edu]

[link to www.spc.noaa.gov]


1012mb surface low offshore SC.

[link to www.spc.noaa.gov]


GFS now has it initialized

[link to moe.met.fsu.edu]

Looks like it will not go to warm core, but stay cold core.

May not be as strong as previously forecast.

Phasing of the trough & surface low should start in about 24 hrs.
DoorBert

User ID: 857877
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11/06/2012 05:41 AM
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Re: HURRICANE FORCE WINDS CAN HIT EAST COAST TODAY AND TOMORROW!!!
ANZ450-451-062130-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
336 AM EST TUE NOV 6 2012

STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING


TODAY
NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

TONIGHT
NE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT...
INCREASING TO 25 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 TO 4 FT...BUILDING TO 4 TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. A CHANCE
OF RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WED
NE WINDS 30 TO 40 KT...BECOMING N 40 TO 45 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 60 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT...BUILDING TO 14 TO
19 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. VSBY 1 TO 3 NM.

WED NIGHT
N WINDS 35 TO 45 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 KT...
DIMINISHING TO 30 TO 35 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 15 TO 20 FT...SUBSIDING TO 11 TO 16 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
VSBY 1 TO 3 NM.

THU
NW WINDS 25 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO
13 FT...SUBSIDING TO 8 TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN LIKELY...
MAINLY IN THE MORNING. VSBY 1 TO 3 NM.

THU NIGHT
NW WINDS 25 TO 30 KT...DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 25 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT...SUBSIDING TO 4 TO 7 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

FRI
NW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT...BECOMING N 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO
5 FT...SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SAT
N WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...BECOMING NE 5 TO 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING SE. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

$$

[link to forecast.weather.gov]
DoorBert

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11/06/2012 05:46 AM
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Re: HURRICANE FORCE WINDS CAN HIT EAST COAST TODAY AND TOMORROW!!!
Mandatory Evacuation in Brick, NJ for the low-lying waterfront areas of town that are prone to flooding and/or storm surge by 6 PM Tuesday.

[link to twitter.com]
Luisport (OP)

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11/06/2012 06:53 AM

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Re: HURRICANE FORCE WINDS CAN HIT EAST COAST TODAY AND TOMORROW!!!
Capital Weather Gang‏@capitalweather

D.C. area forecast: Tranquil, chilly election day; Nor’easter to likely graze or miss region [link to wapo.st]
Luisport (OP)

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11/06/2012 06:55 AM

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Re: HURRICANE FORCE WINDS CAN HIT EAST COAST TODAY AND TOMORROW!!!
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
453 AM EST TUE NOV 6 2012

...DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ069>075-078> 081-176>179-
062200-
/O.CON.KOKX.HW.A.0004.121107T1100Z-121108T1100Z/
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-
EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ROCKLAND-
NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-
BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-
NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-
SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
453 AM EST TUE NOV 6 2012

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

* LOCATIONS...ALL OF NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY...PORTIONS OF THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...LONG ISLAND AND NEW
YORK CITY.

* HAZARDS...DAMAGING WINDS.

* WINDS...NORTH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.

* TIMING...WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES...AS WELL AS MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HAZARDOUS
HIGH WIND EVENT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH...OR GUSTS OF
58 MPH OR STRONGER MAY OCCUR. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS.
Luisport (OP)

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11/06/2012 06:57 AM

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COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
338 AM EST TUE NOV 6 2012

...A STRONG COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OFF THE
VIRGINIA CAPES WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHWARD TO THE WATERS OFF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST
THURSDAY.

DEZ002>004-NJZ012>014-020>027-062200-
/O.CON.KPHI.CF.A.0002.121107T1600Z-121108T1300Z/
KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-
EASTERN MONMOUTH-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
338 AM EST TUE NOV 6 2012

...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

* LOCATION...COASTAL AREAS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE AND ALONG
DELAWARE BAY.

* COASTAL FLOODING...MODERATE FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AROUND THE
TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WATER
LEVELS MAY NOT RECEDE MUCH BETWEEN THE TWO HIGH TIDES.

* AT SANDY HOOK... NEW JERSEY (SANDY HOOK BAY) HIGH TIDE OCCURS
AT 118 PM WEDNESDAY... WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL OF 7.5 TO
8.0 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER. HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT 212
AM THURSDAY... WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL NEAR 8.0 FEET ABOVE
MEAN LOWER LOW WATER.

* AT SEASIDE HEIGHTS... NEW JERSEY (OCEANFRONT) HIGH TIDE OCCURS
AT 1248 PM WEDNESDAY... WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL 7.0 TO 7.5
FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER. HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT 142 AM
THURSDAY... WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL NEAR 7.5 FEET ABOVE
MEAN LOWER LOW WATER.

* AT ATLANTIC CITY... NEW JERSEY (OCEANFRONT) HIGH TIDE OCCURS
AT 101 PM WEDNESDAY... WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL NEAR 7.5
FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER. HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT 157 AM
THURSDAY... WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL NEAR 7.5 FEET ABOVE
MEAN LOWER LOW WATER.

* AT CAPE MAY... NEW JERSEY (OCEANFRONT) HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT 135
PM WEDNESDAY... WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL OF 8.0 TO 8.5 FEET
ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER. HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT 231 AM
THURSDAY... WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL NEAR 8.0 FEET ABOVE
MEAN LOWER LOW WATER.

* AT BREAKWATER HARBOR... DELAWARE (DELAWARE BAY) HIGH TIDE
OCCURS AT 221 PM WEDNESDAY... WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL NEAR
7.5 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER. HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT 302
AM THURSDAY... WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL OF 7.0 TO 7.5 FEET
ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER.

* AT REHOBOTH BEACH... DELAWARE (OCEANFRONT) HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT
133 PM WEDNESDAY... WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL NEAR 7.5 FEET
ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER. HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT 207 AM
THURSDAY... WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL OF 7.0 TO 7.5 FEET
ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER.

* HIGH TIDE ON THE BACK BAYS... ALONG DELAWARE BAY AND ALONG
RARITAN BAY OCCURS LATER THAN THE HIGH TIDE ON THE OCEANFRONT.

* SEAS...WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE SURF ZONE ALONG THE COAST ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE 6 TO 10 FOOT RANGE. WAVE HEIGHTS ON
DELAWARE BAY SHOULD BE IN THE 2 TO 6 FOOT RANGE.

* IMPACTS...NUMEROUS ROADWAYS WILL FLOOD AND ADDITIONAL MINOR TO
MODERATE PROPERTY DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE. THE ELEVATED TIDES WILL
HAVE A NEGATIVE IMPACT ON RECOVERY EFFORTS. THE TIDES AND THE
WAVE ACTION WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO MAJOR BEACH
EROSION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS COASTAL FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING. PAY CLOSE ATTENTION
TO UPDATED FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS AND TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. FOLLOW THE RECOMMENDATIONS OF LOCAL
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

FOR A LIST OF THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT TIDE HEIGHTS IN YOUR COUNTY
PLEASE GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/TIDES.HTM (ALL IN LOWER CASE).

&&
Luisport (OP)

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11/06/2012 06:58 AM

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Re: HURRICANE FORCE WINDS CAN HIT EAST COAST TODAY AND TOMORROW!!!
Joe Bastardi‏@BigJoeBastardi

06z GFS capturing my idea on Sandy Sequel.. 06z CRGEM swang to it also. Still a problem storm, wet snow in I-95 corridor, gales, coast
Luisport (OP)

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11/06/2012 07:00 AM

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Re: HURRICANE FORCE WINDS CAN HIT EAST COAST TODAY AND TOMORROW!!!
Nasty nor’easter set to hit NYC in 2 days - more flooding, power outages may be in store

Read more: [link to www.nydailynews.com#ixzz2BR9SJFOr]

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