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Message Subject HURRICANE FORCE WINDS CAN HIT EAST COAST TODAY AND TOMORROW!!!
Poster Handle Luisport
Post Content
NYC forecast discussion for Wednesday/Wednesday night storm in the New York City Area...

For the Snow lovers...

MODELS BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON A SOLN FOR THE STORM. THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF/GFS ENSEMBLE/GGEM ARE ALL SIMILAR WITH THE DEVELOPMENTAL STAGES OF THE STORM TIL 00Z THU. SOLNS THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFT THE MATURATION OF THE SYSTEM.

THE CONSENSUS IS THAT A MID-UPR 980S LOW WILL DEVELOP ABOUT 150-160 MILES ESE OF CAPE MAY NJ BY 00Z THU. WITH A 1030 OR SO HIGH OVER LABRADOR...WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS THEY ADJUST TO THE PRES DURING THE DAY. THESE POWERFUL WINDS WILL LAST THRU THE EVE. THE CURRENT DATA SUGGESTS GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH IN THE CORE OF THESE WINDS. AFT THE DEEPENING PHASE OF THE STORM WED NGT...THE LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK NEWD BUT WILL REMAIN AN OCCLUDED WIND MACHINE...PRODUCING GUSTS IN THE 40-55 MPH RANGE THRU THU. EXACT PROXIMITY TO THE COAST AND DEPTH OF THE LOW WILL DETERMINE THE ACTUAL MAGNITUDE OF THE WINDS.

DYNAMIC COOLING IN THE NWRN QUAD OF THE STORM WILL PRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE COLDEST SOLN AND IS TRENDING COLDER. THE PRIME CANDIDATE FOR SIG ACCUMS WOULD BE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NJ AND INTO THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY. THE FCST HAS BEEN TRENDED COOLER. A MIX HAS BEEN INTRODUCED INTO PORTIONS OF THE CITY AND COASTS...WITH NO ACCUMS...AND LIGHT ACCUMS HAVE BEEN INDICATED ACROSS THE HIGHER INTERIOR SPOTS.

BASED ON HOW THIS STORM IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE...AN EWD TREND IN THE TRACK WOULD RESULT IN MORE SNOW AND LESS WIND.

AS THE STORM DRIFTS PAST AND AWAY THU-THU NGT...PERIODS OF LIGHTER PCPN CAN BE EXPECTED. THERE COULD BE A FEW EMBEDDED MDT BANDS IN THIS ACTIVITY...BUT WIDESPREAD MDT-HVY PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED. AS MENTIONED ABV...THE GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE DAY AND
DIMINISH THU NGT.

AS ALWAYS...THIS STORM IS STILL A FEW DAYS AWAY SO CHANGES/UPDATES
CAN BE EXPECTED.

A HIGH WIND WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FOR WED-WED NGT.

NO WINTER WEATHER WATCHES ATTM. A SNOW TOTAL GRAPHIC HAS BEEN
POSTED.
 
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