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Message Subject HURRICANE FORCE WINDS CAN HIT EAST COAST TODAY AND TOMORROW!!!
Poster Handle DoorBert
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GFS & NAM are both trending to a system that is not as powerful as was being forecast 24 hrs ago.

Also looks to being swinging a little more east than previous runs.

[link to www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov]

[link to www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov]


...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST TUE ONWARD...

PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF/21Z SREF MEAN COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE

DURING THE DAY TUE THE NAM IS SLIGHTLY NWD/WWD OF CONSENSUS WITH
THE WRN ATLC SFC LOW. GUIDANCE CATCHES UP TO THE NAM FCST BY WED
WITH THE 21Z SREF MEAN/12Z ECMWF BEING THE SOLNS THAT MATCH MOST
CLOSELY TO THE NAM WITH THE SFC LOW TRACK/TIMING FROM LATE WED
ONWARD. MEANWHILE FROM TUE NIGHT ONWARD THE GFS TRACKS THE SYSTEM
FARTHER NEWD THAN THE NAM CLUSTER... WHILE THE UKMET THUS FAR
TRACKS THE SYSTEM FARTHER OFFSHORE THAN EVEN THE GFS. THE 00Z
CANADIAN REG GEM SHOWS A TRACK REACHING SLIGHTLY SEWD OF THE NAM
CLUSTER BY F48 LATE WED. THE CANADIAN GLBL HAS ADJUSTED FROM ITS
12Z RUN THAT WAS A SWRN EXTREME TO A TRACK NOT FAR FROM THE GFS
THRU LATE THU. THE 18Z GEFS MEAN IS CLOSE TO A NAM/GFS COMPROMISE
TRACK WED INTO EARLY THU BEFORE TRENDING TO THE GFS. THE 00Z GEFS
MEAN TRENDS E/NE OF THE GFS BY THU. THE 00Z ECMWF IS A LITTLE EWD
OF THE 12Z RUN ON WED AND THEN SE/S OF THE OLD RUN THEREAFTER.

THE PREVAILING TREND OF GUIDANCE AS A WHOLE OVER THE PAST 12-24
HRS IS SOMEWHAT FARTHER OFFSHORE. WHILE YDAY THERE WAS NOT A
PERFECT CORRELATION BETWEEN HOW SOLNS HANDLED THE SYSTEM OF
INTEREST VERSUS THE UPSTREAM ENERGY AMPLIFYING INTO THE EAST... IT
APPEARS THAT THE GENERAL AMPLIFYING TREND WITH THAT UPSTREAM
ENERGY IS HELPING TO SEND THE WRN ATLC SYSTEM ON A SOMEWHAT WIDER
ARC AND WITH WEAKER DEPTH DUE TO LESS CONSOLIDATION OF THE TWO
PIECES OF MID LVL ENERGY. POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR GUIDANCE TO
OSCILLATE BACK AS HAS SOMETIMES OCCURRED WITH OTHER SUCH SYSTEMS
BUT TRENDS THAT OCCUR THIS CLOSE TO THE VALID TIME ARE
SUFFICIENTLY RELIABLE TO GIVE AT LEAST HALF WEIGHT TOWARD. THE
SLOW TIMING OF THE 00Z ECMWF FAVORS NO MORE THAN 1/3
CONSIDERATION. WILL ULTIMATELY RECOMMEND A COMPROMISE AMONG THE
GFS/ECMWF/21Z SREF MEAN TO YIELD A SFC LOW TRACK THAT IS STILL IN
THE WRN HALF OF THE SPREAD. GIVEN LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS FOR
STRENGTH THERE IS MINIMAL SUPPORT FOR THE DEEPER NAM ON WED.

[link to www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov]
 
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