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Message Subject HURRICANE FORCE WINDS CAN HIT EAST COAST TODAY AND TOMORROW!!!
Poster Handle DoorBert
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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
330 AM EST TUE NOV 6 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN NEW YORK STATE THIS MORNING WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BEFORE MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST OF THE
SOUTHEAST STATES TODAY WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST...PASSING
EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. THE LOW THEN PASSES SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA LATER THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES FRIDAY WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING MILDER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER AS IT
CONTINUES TO ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. DECENT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
WILL ALLOW FOR AMPLE SUNSHINE WITH A VERY DRY COLUMN. LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL ENSUE BY LATER THIS MORNING AS THE HIGH
CENTERS ITSELF OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

WITH THE INVERSION IN PLACE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MIXING
SO THE WINDS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT COMPARED TO MONDAY.
TEMPERATURE WISE WE SHOULD BE ABOUT AS WARM/COOL AS WE WERE ON
MONDAY, GIVEN THE ALMOST FULL SUNSHINE. IF WE WERE ABLE TO MIX A BIT
HIGHER THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED TODAY WE COULD CLIMB A FEW MORE
DEGREES...MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL UNDERGO CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE NC COAST LATER
TODAY. THE SUPPORTING WAVE, WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH THE SE
COAST WAVE, IS STILL ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE WEST.

AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES
TOWARDS THE NORTH AND DEEPENS A BIT. MODELS ARE SHOWING DECENT
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN THE MID-LEVELS THAT WE BRING CHANCE POPS IN
A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
OUR SOUTHERN ZONES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR AN ALL RAIN EVENT BUT
THERE IS COLD AIR TO THE NORTH THAT MAY GET TRAPPED AGAINST THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE WEST...COLD AIR DAMMING. ALL DEPENDS ON THE
TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM TOMORROW MORNING.

WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND WINDS OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. A BLEND OF THE MET/MAVMOS
WORKED BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DUE TO SURFACE LOW TRACK DIFFERENCES EARLY THIS MORNING...WE WILL BE
STANDING PAT ON THE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. PERHAPS THE BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WILL BE EXPANDING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH MASS FIELDS FOR WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA EARLY THIS
MORNING PHASES WITH THE CLOSING MID LEVEL SYSTEM OVER NORTHWEST
ALABAMA. THEY ARE SIMILAR WITH THE CLOSED MID LEVEL SYSTEM WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE ARE ENOUGH DIFFERENCES IN THE
WIND AND PRECIPITATION FIELDS TO RESULT IN A LOWER THAN AVERAGE
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS...THE HIGH
WIND WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO STAY IN PLACE WITH THE EARLY MORNING
FORECAST PACKAGE.

THE 0000 UTC MODEL SUITE IS...FOR THE MOST PART...FURTHER EAST WITH
THE SURFACE DEVELOPMENT AND THE STRONGEST WINDS FIELD (THE 0000 UTC
NAM IS THE EXCEPTION HERE). WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS NOW JUST A BIT FURTHER OFFSHORE...THE CORE OF THE
STRONGEST LOW LEVEL WINDS (UP THROUGH 925 MB) REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. THE CHANGE WOULD
IMPLY THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS WOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA...WITH
THE HIGH WIND POTENTIAL A LITTLE LOWER (BASED ON THE 0000 UTC
OUTPUT).

MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOWS THE LOWERED
POTENTIAL...AS THE DEPTH OF THE MIXED LAYER MAY NOT BE AS DEEP AS
EARLIER THOUGH. THIS WOULD BE PRIMARILY DUE TO THE COOLER AND
SHALLOWER BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THE TRACK IS STILL
PROBABLY NOT SET...THERE IS STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TOP LET THE
HIGH WIND WATCH REMAIN IN PLACE.

DRY AIR IN PLACE SHOULD SLOW THE INTRODUCTION OF PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE SYSTEM STARTS TO RESPOND TO THE
CLOSED MID LEVEL SYSTEM. AS THE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
ROTATES BACK TOWARD THE WEST AROUND THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM...BANDS OF
PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE WEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE DRY AIR
IN PLACE SHOULD SLOW THE PROCESS...AND COULD EVEN STOP THE WESTWARD
PROGRESS IN THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND SOUTHERN POCONOS DURING THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON.

PRECIPITATION TYPE COULD END UP BEING MORE INTERESTING THAT PREVIOUS
FORECASTS. THE 0000 UTC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD AIR IN
ALREADY IN PLACE...AND DOES NOT REALLY MOVE OUT WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM. THERE IS EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN PLACE DURING
THE EARLY PART OF THE PRECIPITATION...AND DYNAMIC COOLING BECOMES
IMPORTANT LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY END UP BEING TOO WARM FOR SNOW TO ACCUMULATE
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DUE TO
EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY...HIGHS WERE
GENERALLY 2 TO 4 DEGREES BELOW THE MOS BLEND.

THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE PROBLEM COULD OCCUR WEDNESDAY EVENING.
DURING THAT TIME...DYNAMIC COOLING WILL BE AT IT PEAK...WITH
LOWERING HEIGHTS RESULTING IN AN OVERALL COOLER COLUMN. MOST MODELS
SHOWS THE BEST MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING SETTING UP ACROSS NEW
JERSEY DURING THE EVENING. THIS IMPLIES THE BEST CHANCE OF
BANDING...AND THE BEST VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE BEST DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONES ACROSS NEW JERSEY DURING THE
EVENING AS WELL.

ALL OF THIS ADDS UP TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY DURING WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THIS IS THE AREA WITH THE BEST OVERLAPPING MID LEVEL
FORCING AND DENDRITIC GROWTH. IF THIS WERE A MONTH LATER...THERE
WOULD BE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AND GROUND TEMPERATURES MAKE FORECASTING
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HERE PROBLEMATIC. RIGHT NOW...IT WOULD APPEAR
COLDER SURFACES WOULD HAVE A BETTER CHANCE TO SEE SOME
ACCUMULATIONS...WITH TRAVEL SURFACES TOO WARM FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION.

FOR NOW...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE
ABOVEMENTIONED AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE IS STILL
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING AMOUNTS. LOWS WERE MAINLY BASED
ON THE MOS BLEND...AND DROPPED A TAD DUE TO THE COOL COLUMN.

MOS MODELS SHOW THE BEST PRESSURE GRADIENT AND AND STRONGEST 925 MB
WIND BETWEEN 0000 UTC AND 0600 UTC. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...MODELS
ARE STARTING TO HINT THAT THE BEST LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD MAY STAY
JUST OFFSHORE...BUT THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THE HIGH WIND WATCH RIGHT NOW.

AS THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM TRUNDLES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY...THE
STEADIEST PRECIPITATION SHOULD END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THE
COLUMN MAY STILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION THURSDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...WITH THE LOSS OF SIGNIFICANT UPWARD LIFT WITH THE
MID LEVEL SYSTEM...THE PRECIPITATION TYPE PROBLEMS PROBABLY SHIFT TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DRIER AIR WILL TRY TO GET INTO THE REGION DURING
THE AFTERNOON...AND THIS MAY FINALLY ALLOW THE SHOWERS TO END
GRADUALLY DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN AREAS.

THE COLUMN GRADUALLY WARMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING SUGGEST THAT THERE WOULD NOT BE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF TEMPERATURE RECOVERY IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THIS
IN MIND...HIGHS WERE GENERALLY BASED ON THE COLDER NAM MOS NUMBERS.

THE BEST GRADIENT SHOULD OCCUR IN THE MORNING HOURS...WITH WIND
GUSTS NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN SECTION AS
WELL AS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE GRADIENT SLOWLY BACKS OFF IN
THE AFTERNOON...BUT THIS MAY END UP BEING MITIGATED BY DEEPER MIXED
LAYERS. IN ANY EVENT...THURSDAY AFTERNOON STILL LOOKS WINDY...BUT
GUSTS SHOULD DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS ALL AREAS.

DRYING SHOULD RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT...AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS START TO
RISE IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE...AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE IS SOME
INDICATION THAT MOISTURE COULD TRY TO POOL ALONG A DEVELOPING
SURFACE WARM FRONT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...BUT
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PART OF THE FORECAST. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND SUGGEST HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S...
WHICH WOULD 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

[link to forecast.weather.gov]
 
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