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REPORT ABUSIVE REPLY
Message Subject HURRICANE FORCE WINDS CAN HIT EAST COAST TODAY AND TOMORROW!!!
Poster Handle Luisport
Post Content
SYSTEMS MERGING ACROSS THE EAST WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
NOR'EASTER MOVING OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST
=========================================
PREFERENCE: 12Z ECMWF/12Z GFS COMPROMISE WITH BELOW AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE

SINCE LAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED FROM A
SOLUTION WHICH SHOWED ONE LARGE, PHASED NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
TO A PATTERN SHOWING GREATER SEPARATION ALOFT/MORE STREAMS OF THE
WESTERLIES ACROSS NORTH AMERICA, WHICH HAS CAUSED A SURFACE LOW
TRACK WHICH HAS WAVERED FROM FAIRLY OFFSHORE (THEN INTO MAINE) TO
A MORE COASTAL TRACK BACK TO A MORE OFFSHORE TRACK (INCLUDING
MAINE) OVER THE PAST SIX DAYS. BINARY/FUJIWARA INTERACTION IS
PLAYING A LARGE ROLE WITH THIS OVERALL SYSTEM WHICH DROPS
CONFIDENCE TO BELOW AVERAGE AS THIS TYPE OF INTERACTION CAN CREATE
MODERATE TO LARGE RUN-TO-RUN AND DAY-TO-DAY DIFFERENCES IN THE
GUIDANCE UNTIL THE PROCESS IS UNDERWAY.

THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS SIMILAR SPREAD WITH
THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE 12Z UKMET SHOWING THE QUICKEST/MOST
EASTERLY SOLUTION WHILE THE OTHER GUIDANCE SHOWS A MORE WESTERLY
TRACK FOR THIS CYCLONE. THERE IS NO STABLE FEATURE IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM TO HELP DETERMINE ITS LATITUDE IN A TELECONNECTION
SENSE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS THE NORTHERN STREAM LOOKS
PROGRESSIVE. DEPTH-WISE, ITS TRACK NEAR THE GULF STREAM INTO
WEDNESDAY IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN A FAIRLY LOW PRESSURE, ULTIMATELY
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 980S HPA (BUT WELL SHY OF SANDY'S VERY LOW
PRESSURE). A COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z ECMWF/12Z GFS (WITH A SOMEWHAT
DEEPER CENTRAL PRESSURE) REMAINS THE COURSE OF LEAST REGRET WITH
BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.
 
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