OH absentee ballot returns will shock you | |
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| last one I just don't give a fuck User ID: 25032474 11/05/2012 08:20 PM ![]() Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
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| Super Bowl Dave Love women, hate Feminism User ID: 14634326 11/05/2012 08:24 PM ![]() Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | It's true, I think -- but I think Democrats still lead by 200k. Which is by how much Obama won in 2008 -- 200k. |
| Super Bowl Dave Love women, hate Feminism User ID: 14634326 11/05/2012 08:25 PM ![]() Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
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| Anonymous Coward User ID: 18308331 11/05/2012 08:28 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Quoting: Super Bowl Dave Very relevant now. request of 2012 versus requests 2008 shows a dramatic drop in requests from democrats, and a surge in requests from republicans. Sorry.... progressive socialists are gonna get their asses spanked tomorrow. |
| Anonymous Coward (OP) User ID: 26357200 11/05/2012 08:33 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | It's true, I think -- but I think Democrats still lead by 200k. Quoting: Super Bowl Dave Which is by how much Obama won in 2008 -- 200k. Out of the million vote swing, Romney is likely to get 1,000,000 more votes because no Republican is going to vote for Obama this time around unless they mismarked their ballot. :-) |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 26142676 11/05/2012 08:37 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | It's true, I think -- but I think Democrats still lead by 200k. Quoting: Super Bowl Dave Which is by how much Obama won in 2008 -- 200k. Out of the million vote swing, Romney is likely to get 1,000,000 more votes because no Republican is going to vote for Obama this time around unless they mismarked their ballot. :-) I find those figures hard to believe that swing is too huge |
| mikebo2 User ID: 18012248 11/05/2012 08:39 PM ![]() Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Anonymous Coward (OP) User ID: 26357200 11/05/2012 08:39 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | First, that article was written September 29th. Second it says at the bottom of the article that it is an incomplete tally, "*This is an important caveat: there are considerably more counties out there that still need to report in. This report indicates that there were a total of 1.72 million absentee/early voters in Ohio in 2012; clearly the process has a way to go." |
| SaveUSa User ID: 20038946 11/05/2012 08:42 PM ![]() Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Sleeping Giant Haste The Day User ID: 23781418 11/05/2012 08:42 PM ![]() Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | There was a pinned thread earlier that linked to some coverage that was similar to what OP said. I'll try to find it. "You don't have a soul. You are a soul. You have a body." ~C.S. Lewis "And Lord, haste the day when my faith shall be sight, The clouds be rolled back as a scroll; The trump shall resound, and the Lord shall descend, Even so, it is well with my soul." Thread: 37 Survival Downloads and Handbooks – Pioneering, SHTF, Engineering, Urban Gardening, Defense, and More |
| Anonymous Coward (OP) User ID: 26357200 11/05/2012 08:43 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Holy fucking shit for real? Source please? please pin please pin please pin Quoting: Anonymous Coward 26142676 Michael Medved reported it on his radio show. who? He's a syndicated talk show host with about 100 stations. Medved has a photographic memory and encyclopedic knowledge. |
| Sleeping Giant Haste The Day User ID: 23781418 11/05/2012 08:45 PM ![]() Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | There was a pinned thread earlier that linked to some coverage that was similar to what OP said. I'll try to find it. Quoting: Sleeping Giant Obama won Ohio by 5% in 2008, or by a margin of about 262,000 votes. (Keep that number in mind.) Exit polls show that there was a D+8 advantage in turnout four years ago, and Independents (about 30% of the electorate) went for Obama by eight points. In 2004, as you probably recall, Bush narrowly defeated Kerry in Ohio by two percent, or a margin of about 119,000 votes. Exit polls showed Republicans had a five point turnout advantage, which was important because Independent voters (25% of the electorate in 2004) went for Kerry by almost 20 points. Republican turnout was almost certainly boosted by Ohio State Issue 1, a ballot measure to make it unconstitutional to perform or recognize same sex marriages in the state. So it's fair to say that there will be no R+5 turnout this election. But then, there very likely won't be a D+8 turnout, either. On to the polls. Romney has had the lead in exactly one poll (Rasmussen Reports, by two points) since early October. He has been tied in five others (two of which were also by Rasmussen Reports). In the polls in which he is trailing (which is most of them), the margin has been anywhere from one point to six points. Let's take a look at the most recent poll from Marist. It has Obama leading Romney 51-45. The sample is D+9. Ridiculous. The Columbus Dispatch has a poll showing Obama up 50-48. It has a D+3 sample size (possible). Independents favor Obama by 10 percent. That seems unlikely. Are Independent voters really more supportive of Obama now than they were in 2008? The University of Cincinnati poll shows Obama leading 48-46. It has a D+1 sample (possible). Obama has a whopping (and difficult to believe) 14% lead among Independents. Gravis Marketing shows Obama leading 50-49. It has a D+8 skew (not at all likely). In this poll, Independents support Romney by 12 points. Hmmm. Quinnipiac's most recent poll in Ohio has Obama up 50-45. It has a D+9 skew (nope). Independents favor Romney by six points. So as you can see, the polls are all over the place. They either have unrealistic skews that favor Democrats, or they have an unrealistic percentage of Independent voters supporting Obama. But we do have some actual hard data from Ohio, besides polls. Remember the number I wrote above, Obama's margin of victory in Ohio in 2008? That number is roughly 262,000 votes. Well, about 180,000 fewer Democrats have voted early in Ohio than voted early in 2008. And about 75,000 more Republicans have voted early than did in 2008. Add those numbers together, and you get a net gain of 255,000 votes for the GOP. Which pretty much wipes out Obama's margin of victory from four years ago. If Team Romney has a strong enough Election Day ground game in Ohio, he will win. And I think he does. (Romney by less than 1%) Total Electoral College Votes: Romney/Ryan - 285 (30 states) Obama/Biden - 253 (20 states plus DC) Popular Vote: Romney/Ryan 51%, Obama/Biden 48% [link to blogcritics.org] "You don't have a soul. You are a soul. You have a body." ~C.S. Lewis "And Lord, haste the day when my faith shall be sight, The clouds be rolled back as a scroll; The trump shall resound, and the Lord shall descend, Even so, it is well with my soul." Thread: 37 Survival Downloads and Handbooks – Pioneering, SHTF, Engineering, Urban Gardening, Defense, and More |
| Top Hat Top Hat User ID: 10235814 11/05/2012 08:45 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 27093995 11/05/2012 08:49 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | The left-wing media has been proclaiming this election will be a nail-biter for months. If true Americans get off their butts and come out to throw the commie rat bastard out, the socialist parasites and leeches of America, which now make up HALF of America, will go absolutely apeshit. If you live in ANY metropolitan area, and are white, you might want to visit your relatives in the country until the fires burn down and the looters are jailed. |