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OH absentee ballot returns will shock you

 
Anonymous Coward
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11/05/2012 08:17 PM
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OH absentee ballot returns will shock you
You know how all the polls are claiming it's a close race?

Then let them explain this: In Ohio - supposedly THE key state that could turn the election - Republicans have turned in 800,000 more ballots than did the Republicans of 2008.

Meanwhile Democrats have turned in 200,000 fewer absentee ballots compared to 2008/

That is a one million vote swing. from Obama to Romney.

It's not likely too many Republicans voted for Obama. But many Dems might have crossed over.

This election isn't going to be close.
Anonymous Coward
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11/05/2012 08:19 PM
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Re: OH absentee ballot returns will shock you
the Demonrats will be screaming voter fraud if obozo loses..LOL
Anonymous Coward
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11/05/2012 08:20 PM
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Re: OH absentee ballot returns will shock you
Holy fucking shit for real? Source please? please pin please pin please pin
Anonymous Coward
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11/05/2012 08:20 PM
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Re: OH absentee ballot returns will shock you
Pin for a source
last one
I just don't give a fuck

User ID: 25032474
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11/05/2012 08:20 PM

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Re: OH absentee ballot returns will shock you
I usually refrain from being an ass concerning statements such as this one, but, could you please post a link? Thanks.
Anonymous Coward
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11/05/2012 08:20 PM
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Re: OH absentee ballot returns will shock you
the Demonrats will be screaming voter fraud if obozo loses..LOL
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 5698850


Nah, they'll be burning their own section 9's to "show the man".
Anonymous Coward
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11/05/2012 08:21 PM
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Re: OH absentee ballot returns will shock you
the Demonrats will be screaming voter fraud if obozo loses..LOL
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 5698850


Nah, they'll be burning their own section 9's to "show the man".
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 754536


We can help them
Anonymous Coward
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11/05/2012 08:21 PM
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Re: OH absentee ballot returns will shock you
the Demonrats will be screaming voter fraud if obozo loses..LOL
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 5698850


Demonrats are the FRAUD MASTERS!
Perfected in 2008.
Anonymous Coward
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11/05/2012 08:21 PM
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Re: OH absentee ballot returns will shock you
Source before bs pin
Anonymous Coward
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11/05/2012 08:21 PM
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Re: OH absentee ballot returns will shock you
I'm voting Romney just to smack that smug look off of Obama's face. 4 years of looking at that narcissistic POS has pushed me to the limit! And I don't even really like Romney!
Anonymous Coward
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11/05/2012 08:21 PM
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Re: OH absentee ballot returns will shock you
Source or it didn't happen
Anonymous Coward
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11/05/2012 08:22 PM
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Re: OH absentee ballot returns will shock you
the Demonrats will be screaming voter fraud if obozo loses..LOL
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 5698850


Nah, they'll be burning their own section 9's to "show the man".
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 754536


and looting their cousins liquor and TV store..LOL
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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11/05/2012 08:23 PM
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Re: OH absentee ballot returns will shock you
Holy fucking shit for real? Source please? please pin please pin please pin
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 26142676


Michael Medved reported it on his radio show.
Anonymous Coward
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11/05/2012 08:23 PM
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Re: OH absentee ballot returns will shock you
Found a link that has sourced info...

no BS from OP.

[link to www.redstate.com]
Anonymous Coward
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11/05/2012 08:23 PM
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Re: OH absentee ballot returns will shock you
Holy fucking shit for real? Source please? please pin please pin please pin
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 26142676


Michael Medved reported it on his radio show.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 26357200


who?
Anonymous Coward
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11/05/2012 08:25 PM
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Re: OH absentee ballot returns will shock you
Found a link that has sourced info...

no BS from OP.

[link to www.redstate.com]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 18308331


thats only a 41% chance diff
Anonymous Coward
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11/05/2012 08:27 PM
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Re: OH absentee ballot returns will shock you
I wish he would have listed his sources
Anonymous Coward
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11/05/2012 08:27 PM
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Re: OH absentee ballot returns will shock you
It's true, I think -- but I think Democrats still lead by 200k.

Which is by how much Obama won in 2008 -- 200k.
 Quoting: Super Bowl Dave


where are you getting these figures?
Anonymous Coward
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11/05/2012 08:28 PM
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Re: OH absentee ballot returns will shock you
Found a link that has sourced info...

no BS from OP.

[link to www.redstate.com]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 18308331


Absentee REQUESTS. Old info. Not relevant now.
 Quoting: Super Bowl Dave



Very relevant now. request of 2012 versus requests 2008 shows a dramatic drop in requests from democrats, and a surge in requests from republicans.

Sorry.... progressive socialists are gonna get their asses spanked tomorrow.
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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11/05/2012 08:33 PM
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Re: OH absentee ballot returns will shock you
It's true, I think -- but I think Democrats still lead by 200k.

Which is by how much Obama won in 2008 -- 200k.
 Quoting: Super Bowl Dave


Out of the million vote swing, Romney is likely to get 1,000,000 more votes because no Republican is going to vote for Obama this time around unless they mismarked their ballot. :-)
Anonymous Coward
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11/05/2012 08:37 PM
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Re: OH absentee ballot returns will shock you
It's true, I think -- but I think Democrats still lead by 200k.

Which is by how much Obama won in 2008 -- 200k.
 Quoting: Super Bowl Dave


Out of the million vote swing, Romney is likely to get 1,000,000 more votes because no Republican is going to vote for Obama this time around unless they mismarked their ballot. :-)
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 26357200


I find those figures hard to believe that swing is too huge
mikebo2

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11/05/2012 08:39 PM

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Re: OH absentee ballot returns will shock you
I wish he would have listed his sources
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 26142676


He said his source was some radio show.
Anonymous Coward (OP)
User ID: 26357200
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11/05/2012 08:39 PM
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Re: OH absentee ballot returns will shock you
Found a link that has sourced info...

no BS from OP.

[link to www.redstate.com]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 18308331


thats only a 41% chance diff
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 26142676


First, that article was written September 29th. Second it says at the bottom of the article that it is an incomplete tally, "*This is an important caveat: there are considerably more counties out there that still need to report in. This report indicates that there were a total of 1.72 million absentee/early voters in Ohio in 2012; clearly the process has a way to go."
SaveUSa

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11/05/2012 08:42 PM

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Re: OH absentee ballot returns will shock you
the Demonrats will be screaming voter fraud if obozo loses..LOL
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 5698850


No. Racism because they know if they claim fraud, they'll be exposed.
Within the surreal depths of "reality" lies the truth.
Sleeping Giant

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11/05/2012 08:42 PM
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Re: OH absentee ballot returns will shock you
There was a pinned thread earlier that linked to some coverage that was similar to what OP said. I'll try to find it.
"You don't have a soul. You are a soul. You have a body." ~C.S. Lewis

"And I know that when I leave savage wolves will come in among you and will not spare the flock. Even from your own number men will arise and distort the truth in order to draw away disciples after them. So be on your guard. We are not the wolves at the gate, we are the ones who face them.
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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11/05/2012 08:43 PM
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Re: OH absentee ballot returns will shock you
Holy fucking shit for real? Source please? please pin please pin please pin
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 26142676


Michael Medved reported it on his radio show.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 26357200


who?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 26142676


He's a syndicated talk show host with about 100 stations. Medved has a photographic memory and encyclopedic knowledge.
Sleeping Giant

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11/05/2012 08:45 PM
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Re: OH absentee ballot returns will shock you
There was a pinned thread earlier that linked to some coverage that was similar to what OP said. I'll try to find it.
 Quoting: Sleeping Giant


Obama won Ohio by 5% in 2008, or by a margin of about 262,000 votes. (Keep that number in mind.) Exit polls show that there was a D+8 advantage in turnout four years ago, and Independents (about 30% of the electorate) went for Obama by eight points.

In 2004, as you probably recall, Bush narrowly defeated Kerry in Ohio by two percent, or a margin of about 119,000 votes. Exit polls showed Republicans had a five point turnout advantage, which was important because Independent voters (25% of the electorate in 2004) went for Kerry by almost 20 points. Republican turnout was almost certainly boosted by Ohio State Issue 1, a ballot measure to make it unconstitutional to perform or recognize same sex marriages in the state.

So it's fair to say that there will be no R+5 turnout this election. But then, there very likely won't be a D+8 turnout, either.

On to the polls. Romney has had the lead in exactly one poll (Rasmussen Reports, by two points) since early October. He has been tied in five others (two of which were also by Rasmussen Reports). In the polls in which he is trailing (which is most of them), the margin has been anywhere from one point to six points.

Let's take a look at the most recent poll from Marist. It has Obama leading Romney 51-45. The sample is D+9. Ridiculous.

The Columbus Dispatch has a poll showing Obama up 50-48. It has a D+3 sample size (possible). Independents favor Obama by 10 percent. That seems unlikely. Are Independent voters really more supportive of Obama now than they were in 2008?

The University of Cincinnati poll shows Obama leading 48-46. It has a D+1 sample (possible). Obama has a whopping (and difficult to believe) 14% lead among Independents.

Gravis Marketing shows Obama leading 50-49. It has a D+8 skew (not at all likely). In this poll, Independents support Romney by 12 points. Hmmm.

Quinnipiac's most recent poll in Ohio has Obama up 50-45. It has a D+9 skew (nope). Independents favor Romney by six points.

So as you can see, the polls are all over the place. They either have unrealistic skews that favor Democrats, or they have an unrealistic percentage of Independent voters supporting Obama.

But we do have some actual hard data from Ohio, besides polls. Remember the number I wrote above, Obama's margin of victory in Ohio in 2008? That number is roughly 262,000 votes. Well, about 180,000 fewer Democrats have voted early in Ohio than voted early in 2008. And about 75,000 more Republicans have voted early than did in 2008. Add those numbers together, and you get a net gain of 255,000 votes for the GOP. Which pretty much wipes out Obama's margin of victory from four years ago.

If Team Romney has a strong enough Election Day ground game in Ohio, he will win. And I think he does. (Romney by less than 1%)

Total Electoral College Votes:

Romney/Ryan - 285 (30 states)
Obama/Biden - 253 (20 states plus DC)

Popular Vote: Romney/Ryan 51%, Obama/Biden 48%

[link to blogcritics.org]
"You don't have a soul. You are a soul. You have a body." ~C.S. Lewis

"And I know that when I leave savage wolves will come in among you and will not spare the flock. Even from your own number men will arise and distort the truth in order to draw away disciples after them. So be on your guard. We are not the wolves at the gate, we are the ones who face them.
Top Hat
Top Hat

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11/05/2012 08:45 PM

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Re: OH absentee ballot returns will shock you
Show me. Post a link.
Anonymous Coward
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11/05/2012 08:49 PM
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Re: OH absentee ballot returns will shock you
The left-wing media has been proclaiming this election
will be a nail-biter for months.
If true Americans get off their butts and come out
to throw the commie rat bastard out,
the socialist parasites and leeches of America,
which now make up HALF of America,
will go absolutely apeshit.

If you live in ANY metropolitan area, and are white,
you might want to visit your relatives in the country
until the fires burn down and the looters are jailed.
Anonymous Coward
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11/05/2012 08:51 PM
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Re: OH absentee ballot returns will shock you
There was a pinned thread earlier that linked to some coverage that was similar to what OP said. I'll try to find it.
 Quoting: Sleeping Giant


Obama won Ohio by 5% in 2008, or by a margin of about 262,000 votes. (Keep that number in mind.) Exit polls show that there was a D+8 advantage in turnout four years ago, and Independents (about 30% of the electorate) went for Obama by eight points.

In 2004, as you probably recall, Bush narrowly defeated Kerry in Ohio by two percent, or a margin of about 119,000 votes. Exit polls showed Republicans had a five point turnout advantage, which was important because Independent voters (25% of the electorate in 2004) went for Kerry by almost 20 points. Republican turnout was almost certainly boosted by Ohio State Issue 1, a ballot measure to make it unconstitutional to perform or recognize same sex marriages in the state.

So it's fair to say that there will be no R+5 turnout this election. But then, there very likely won't be a D+8 turnout, either.

On to the polls. Romney has had the lead in exactly one poll (Rasmussen Reports, by two points) since early October. He has been tied in five others (two of which were also by Rasmussen Reports). In the polls in which he is trailing (which is most of them), the margin has been anywhere from one point to six points.

Let's take a look at the most recent poll from Marist. It has Obama leading Romney 51-45. The sample is D+9. Ridiculous.

The Columbus Dispatch has a poll showing Obama up 50-48. It has a D+3 sample size (possible). Independents favor Obama by 10 percent. That seems unlikely. Are Independent voters really more supportive of Obama now than they were in 2008?

The University of Cincinnati poll shows Obama leading 48-46. It has a D+1 sample (possible). Obama has a whopping (and difficult to believe) 14% lead among Independents.

Gravis Marketing shows Obama leading 50-49. It has a D+8 skew (not at all likely). In this poll, Independents support Romney by 12 points. Hmmm.

Quinnipiac's most recent poll in Ohio has Obama up 50-45. It has a D+9 skew (nope). Independents favor Romney by six points.

So as you can see, the polls are all over the place. They either have unrealistic skews that favor Democrats, or they have an unrealistic percentage of Independent voters supporting Obama.

But we do have some actual hard data from Ohio, besides polls. Remember the number I wrote above, Obama's margin of victory in Ohio in 2008? That number is roughly 262,000 votes. Well, about 180,000 fewer Democrats have voted early in Ohio than voted early in 2008. And about 75,000 more Republicans have voted early than did in 2008. Add those numbers together, and you get a net gain of 255,000 votes for the GOP. Which pretty much wipes out Obama's margin of victory from four years ago.

If Team Romney has a strong enough Election Day ground game in Ohio, he will win. And I think he does. (Romney by less than 1%)

Total Electoral College Votes:

Romney/Ryan - 285 (30 states)
Obama/Biden - 253 (20 states plus DC)

Popular Vote: Romney/Ryan 51%, Obama/Biden 48%

[link to blogcritics.org]
 Quoting: Sleeping Giant


This is more in line of what i have heard on both fox and cnn
l3ol3o
Omar's coming Yo!

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11/05/2012 09:05 PM

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Re: OH absentee ballot returns will shock you
It's true, I think -- but I think Democrats still lead by 200k.

Which is by how much Obama won in 2008 -- 200k.
 Quoting: Super Bowl Dave


Out of the million vote swing, Romney is likely to get 1,000,000 more votes because no Republican is going to vote for Obama this time around unless they mismarked their ballot. :-)
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 26357200


I find those figures hard to believe that swing is too huge
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 26142676


This is the problem with this election. Many people just can't comprehend how many people feel threatened by Obama. People that normally don't give a damn about politics are getting involved because Obama is threatening what America is. They want to live in the "Land of the Free" not the "Land of the Dependent". On top of that many people who voter for Obama aren't voting for him again. So many people wanted to be part of history voting for Obama. I have a few friends that voted for Obama just because he was black. They thought having a black President would finally put racism to an end. None of these people are voting for Obama again. Republicans will turn out in huge numbers tomorrow. All the data shows it. It shouldn't be surprising to anyone yet the media will be "shocked" in sure.
Ayatollah Khomeini:
“Islam makes it incumbent on all adult males, provided they are not disabled and incapacitated, to prepare themselves for the conquest of [other] countries so that the writ of Islam is obeyed in every country in the world. But those who study Islamic Holy War will understand why Islam wants to conquer the whole world…. Those who know nothing of Islam pretend that Islam counsels against war. Those [who say this] are witless. Islam says: Kill all the unbelievers just as they would kill you all! Does this mean that Muslims should sit back until they are devoured by [the unbelievers]? Islam says: Kill them [the non-Muslims], put them to the sword and scatter [their armies]. Does this mean sitting back until [non-Muslims] overcome us? Islam says: Kill in the service of Allah those who may want to kill you! Does this mean that we should surrender to the enemy? Islam says: Whatever good there is exists thanks to the sword and in the shadow of the sword! People cannot be made obedient except with the sword! The sword is the key to Paradise, which can be opened only for Holy Warriors! There are hundreds of other [Koranic] verses and Hadiths [sayings of the Prophet] urging Muslims to value war and to fight. Does all that mean that Islam is a religion that prevents men from waging war? I spit upon those foolish souls who make such a claim.”

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