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Message Subject I Waited In Line One Hour To Vote This Morning, In A Small Precinct- OHIO
Poster Handle Anonymous Coward
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...We've been hearing for months how it's all going to come down to Ohio, and guess what? It's all going to come down to Ohio.

Obama won Ohio by 5% in 2008, or by a margin of about 262,000 votes. (Keep that number in mind.) Exit polls show that there was a D+8 advantage in turnout four years ago, and Independents (about 30% of the electorate) went for Obama by eight points.

In 2004, as you probably recall, Bush narrowly defeated Kerry in Ohio by two percent, or a margin of about 119,000 votes. Exit polls showed Republicans had a five point turnout advantage, which was important because Independent voters (25% of the electorate in 2004) went for Kerry by almost 20 points. Republican turnout was almost certainly boosted by Ohio State Issue 1, a ballot measure to make it unconstitutional to perform or recognize same sex marriages in the state.

...The Columbus Dispatch has a poll showing Obama up 50-48. It has a D+3 sample size (possible). Independents favor Obama by 10 percent. That seems unlikely. Are Independent voters really more supportive of Obama now than they were in 2008?

The University of Cincinnati poll shows Obama leading 48-46. It has a D+1 sample (possible). Obama has a whopping (and difficult to believe) 14% lead among Independents.

Gravis Marketing shows Obama leading 50-49. It has a D+8 skew (not at all likely). In this poll, Independents support Romney by 12 points. Hmmm.

Quinnipiac's most recent poll in Ohio has Obama up 50-45. It has a D+9 skew (nope). Independents favor Romney by six points.

So as you can see, the polls are all over the place. They either have unrealistic skews that favor Democrats, or they have an unrealistic percentage of Independent voters supporting Obama.

But we do have some actual hard data from Ohio, besides polls. Remember the number I wrote above, Obama's margin of victory in Ohio in 2008? That number is roughly 262,000 votes. Well, about 180,000 fewer Democrats have voted early in Ohio than voted early in 2008. And about 75,000 more Republicans have voted early than did in 2008. Add those numbers together, and you get a net gain of 255,000 votes for the GOP. Which pretty much wipes out Obama's margin of victory from four years ago.

If Team Romney has a strong enough Election Day ground game in Ohio, he will win. And I think he does. (Romney by less than 1%)

 Quoting: Sleeping Giant


Romney HAS fired up the Ohio R base in a way that McCain did not. That will definitely affect R turnout (not just enthusiasm.

Obama's base is solid, but NOT fired up like it was in '08, that will affect D turnout at the margins.

Weather ... always a big factor in Ohio in a close race: Weather is PERFECT across the state, which ALWAYS increased D turnout by 150,000 to 250,000 over a bad weather day.
That may help to compensate for O's non exciting campaign this time around in Ohio

Auto Industry Bailout / Romney's Jeep ads. Romney VOLUNTARILY shot himself in the foot on this one with White Male blue collar factory workers across northern Ohio with this one. Without going into details Romney already had problems with this group (the exact group that swung at the last minute to Reagan in 1980 AFTER the last polls had been taken), which he compounded with his Jeep ad that was basically a lie (may have been "factually accurate", but it was like saying "that married woman didn't sleep with me last night" when in reality she slept with you the previous two nights).

Issues in Ohio: Secondary issues such as Abortion, Obama Care, etc. are surprisingly NOT affecting the swing voter, though Coal IS (in that small part of the state where coal is king). It is the natural D-R split PLUS the Economy AND the Auto Industry issue.

O's ground game at the precint level IS top notch this time around, BETTER than Romney's - which is trying to do it from the top down versus the ground up, maybe being the best ground game ever deployed at the local level in a national race. Combined with fortuitous good weather it could make up for the enthuisam of Romney's base.

Overall ... Ohio IS going to come down to a "turnout" issue and how the independents who show up today actually vote imo.

Prepare for the potential that Ohio will NOT be determined tonight
... but having to wait on the Provisional Ballots which are not even opened until 10 days AFTER the election itself
 
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