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Message Subject I Waited In Line One Hour To Vote This Morning, In A Small Precinct- OHIO
Poster Handle Sleeping Giant
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 Quoting: Sleeping Giant


Romney HAS fired up the Ohio R base in a way that McCain did not. That will definitely affect R turnout (not just enthusiasm.

Obama's base is solid, but NOT fired up like it was in '08, that will affect D turnout at the margins.

Weather ... always a big factor in Ohio in a close race: Weather is PERFECT across the state, which ALWAYS increased D turnout by 150,000 to 250,000 over a bad weather day.
That may help to compensate for O's non exciting campaign this time around in Ohio

Auto Industry Bailout / Romney's Jeep ads. Romney VOLUNTARILY shot himself in the foot on this one with White Male blue collar factory workers across northern Ohio with this one. Without going into details Romney already had problems with this group (the exact group that swung at the last minute to Reagan in 1980 AFTER the last polls had been taken), which he compounded with his Jeep ad that was basically a lie (may have been "factually accurate", but it was like saying "that married woman didn't sleep with me last night" when in reality she slept with you the previous two nights).

Issues in Ohio: Secondary issues such as Abortion, Obama Care, etc. are surprisingly NOT affecting the swing voter, though Coal IS (in that small part of the state where coal is king). It is the natural D-R split PLUS the Economy AND the Auto Industry issue.

O's ground game at the precint level IS top notch this time around, BETTER than Romney's - which is trying to do it from the top down versus the ground up, maybe being the best ground game ever deployed at the local level in a national race. Combined with fortuitous good weather it could make up for the enthuisam of Romney's base.

Overall ... Ohio IS going to come down to a "turnout" issue and how the independents who show up today actually vote imo.

Prepare for the potential that Ohio will NOT be determined tonight
... but having to wait on the Provisional Ballots which are not even opened until 10 days AFTER the election itself
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 20589235


Very good synopsis!
 
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