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Message Subject UPDATE Dec 10: Damn...its time to start paying attenion to Patrick Geryl (i hate saying that). M7.4 in Guatemala...just like he said...again.
Poster Handle MatrixLNIN11
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If you look at the math on this there are 15 quakes a year 7.0 or bigger. That's one every 24 days. So with a two day window of prediction that gives you a one in 12 chance of being right just by random selection. Additionally, there are 7.0 + quakes that he is not predicting.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 13806508

Then perhaps you should check out the warnings I've put out that have hit ALL 7+ mags in 2012 and even 2011.

But either way, if you think its no big deal to pick a date for a MAJOR or M7+ and have one hit within 1-3 days over and over, LETS SEE YOU DO BETTER or show anyone that has. lol

GOOD LUCK with that one!

If you go below 7.0 there are 134 earthquakes a year between 6 and 6.9.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 13806508

PLEASE SHOW PROOF for that CLAIM because your premise is FALSE. Lets see if you can figure out why.

If you go with a two day window on those you have a 74 percent chance of being right just with random selection.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 13806508


please support that claim with a far better evidenced-based argument. So far you're cherry-picking and skirting total context and actual evidence for each case.

Of course the real test is the 10 that he's predicting for December.
We'll know soon enough.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 13806508

Now that i might agree with somewhat.

I predict 8+ possible 9+

Either way though BIG QUAKE 7+ MINIMUM


but thats not including what might be described as a DIMENSIONAL SHIFT... which most technically won't even be aware of anyways. ;-)
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