Users Online Now: 1,948 (Who's On?) Visitors Today: 1,377,243 Pageviews Today: 1,750,200 Threads Today: 363 Posts Today: 7,135 01:11 PM

 Back to Forum Back to Thread
Message Subject UPDATE Dec 10: Damn...its time to start paying attenion to Patrick Geryl (i hate saying that). M7.4 in Guatemala...just like he said...again.
Poster Handle MatrixLNIN11
Post Content
If you look at the math on this there are 15 quakes a year 7.0 or bigger. That's one every 24 days. So with a two day window of prediction that gives you a one in 12 chance of being right just by random selection. Additionally, there are 7.0 + quakes that he is not predicting.
Quoting: Anonymous Coward 13806508

Then perhaps you should check out the warnings I've put out that have hit ALL 7+ mags in 2012 and even 2011.

But either way, if you think its no big deal to pick a date for a MAJOR or M7+ and have one hit within 1-3 days over and over, LETS SEE YOU DO BETTER or show anyone that has. lol

GOOD LUCK with that one!

If you go below 7.0 there are 134 earthquakes a year between 6 and 6.9.
Quoting: Anonymous Coward 13806508

PLEASE SHOW PROOF for that CLAIM because your premise is FALSE. Lets see if you can figure out why.

If you go with a two day window on those you have a 74 percent chance of being right just with random selection.
Quoting: Anonymous Coward 13806508

BULLSHIT.

please support that claim with a far better evidenced-based argument. So far you're cherry-picking and skirting total context and actual evidence for each case.

Of course the real test is the 10 that he's predicting for December.
We'll know soon enough.
Quoting: Anonymous Coward 13806508

Now that i might agree with somewhat.

I predict 8+ possible 9+

Either way though BIG QUAKE 7+ MINIMUM

GUARANTEED

but thats not including what might be described as a DIMENSIONAL SHIFT... which most technically won't even be aware of anyways. ;-)