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Message Subject UPDATE Dec 10: Damn...its time to start paying attenion to Patrick Geryl (i hate saying that). M7.4 in Guatemala...just like he said...again.
Poster Handle eddieboneman
Post Content
So far he's batting 3 for 5. It's now 3:51AM on Nov 28th in Thailand. I've been giving this guy +13 hours and -12 hours from GMT time to get it right, but he still missed last two predictions.

November 7-8: Possible 7 plus (HIT -- Guatemala)
November 13-14: 6.5 plus (HIT - Alaska)
November 15-16: 6.5 plus (HIT - Kuril Islands)
November 20: 6 plus (MISS - Earth)
November 22-23 6.5 plus (MISS - Earth)
November 28: 7
December 4-5: 7 plus
December 11: 7 plus
December 17-18: 8 plus
December 21: 10 PLUS
 Quoting: orion411 28592745


So there's 10 days in november he's 'predicted' something.. Does he get a smiley stamp for being 1 day outside the window? Let's assume not.

So for 10 days out of 21 he has a 60% strike rate? You could pull those numbers out of a hat and get the same result! Rather dreadful results for someone so sure of himself, don't you think?

Let's then assume his fans give him credit for being 12hrs late etc. This opens up the window considerably, adding a day to the predicted day before and predicted day after. I count an extra 12 days giving him 22 days from 28....

To get a good indicator of his average, you'd need to have 1,000 predicted days and see what results come back at.

And as mentioned before, he's not the first researcher to use planetary alignments to predict EQ's. And the results just go to show how unpredictable they really are.

He's been making predictions for about 3 years now.. They always seem vanish off this site when he gets them wrong, but the few he gets right always seem to be found..
 
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