If he predicted Obama over Romney in 2011, then I would say that is a pretty difficult prediction, much more than 50/50. Obama was very unpopular, especially with the economy, and especially by the end of 2011. Many were saying ANY Republican could beat him (ignoring the NWO issues). But Romney was not the frontrunner, and it was pretty surprising to see the GOP attempt to slide an open Mormon into the oval office. Some of the other leading GOP candidates at various points were Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, and Rick Perry. I'd give it maybe a 10% chance of Romney winning the GOP bid, so that puts the Obama-over-Romney scenario at maybe 5%.