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Debunking the Turnout Theory.
User ID: 27194352
11/08/2012 08:45 PM
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So I have went through some numbers after seeing many threads earlier, pointing to voter fraud because of low turnout. I havent been able to sift through all the numbers but what I have found so far is telling. First I looked at the effect that Sandy might have had on voter turnout. So I checked NY and NJ. Turnout for the state of NY for the two major party candidates in '08 was 7,557,429. Compared to 6,098,613 in 2012. A fall of nearly 1.5 million votes. In NJ '08 was 3,828,627. For '12 it was 3,344,453. A difference of about 500,000 votes. So combined turnout fell about 2 million votes in NY and NJ. I think we can say with certainty that Sandy had an affect on turnout. Although I would hesitate to give the storm all the credit for this fall in turnout as many more factors could be at play. Finally I checked California because the numbers there were massive. In CA '08 it was 13,286,254 and for '12 9,304,993. A difference of about 4 million votes. So of the 12 million vote difference between '04 and '08, 6 million of those votes were from NY, NJ, and CA. The other 6 million seems to be spread out over the electorate pretty evenly. With the decline in turnout mostly hurting Obama across the board. Exactly why this is I can not explain at this point. But this is what I found in the numbers.