Mark the Dates! Financial Market Turning Points - 2013 through 2020

michael mandeville and john hampson (solarcycles.net) do good work in the field of cycle research

Please post his turning points here - do any align with Armstrong's?

Fiscal Cliff Explained - How Do We Land? Mike Maloney Gold & Silver Inc

Mike Maloney's recent appearance on Capital Account with Lauren Lyster

Last week, the U.S. accomplished its own version of Caesar’s march across the Rubicon. The election answered virtually all outstanding questions except one, “when”. There are no more “ifs”. The majority voted to go with the existing leaders and agenda. Regardless of where one is on the merits of that outcome, it is clear that we are now charging headlong for financial Armageddon. It is just simple arithmetic.


There is no turning back. The voters have in effect demanded hyperinflation and destruction of economies and currencies. Rather than a fiscal cliff, we are now traveling full-speed ahead toward a financial black hole. A key aspect of black holes is that there is a point where one cannot escape the gravitational pull. The belief is that you emerge on the other side into some alternative universe.


What that new universe will look like is anyone’s guess, although history is very clear about the basic phases ahead and the endpoint. Like the Romans, this will not end well. It is just history. It is just what we humans seem to do. There are moments in history when panic is the correct action. We are at such a moment.


Rather than trying to guess the answer as to “when”, investors must take action immediately. For those with wealth to protect, this is no longer an intellectual exercise to guess on outcomes or allocations. This is coming down to an intelligence test. Survivors will take very significant positions in gold and silver. History is crystal clear that such action is the primary way in which to preserve wealth.


Time is very, very short to do so. The questions have been answered for anyone willing to look at the reality of the situation. The only uncertainty is “when.”


-Robert Fitzwilson, founder of The Portola Group

[link to kingworldnews.com]

With total underfunded liabilities - including SSN and healthcare, in the US well over $100 trillion (on under $16 trillion of GDP) it is only a matter of time before the entire welfare state ponzi scheme blows up.

But don't expect a lib or a RINO to understand the inconvienience of the math.

We need true fiscal conservatives in office to address the real issues - finance/taxes/debt/jobs - or no other issue will matter.

Thread: Most in US won't be able to escape 'fiscal cliff' Congressional Buget Office Report!

In regards to the financial markets and O running on HOPE

As the old adage runs -- Bull markets climb a wall of worry. Bear markets descend on a slope of hope. And it looks as though there is still a lot of hope.

Watch out below!!!!

Dems cannot commit to doing a budget.

Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) confirmed Thursday that she will seek the chairmanship of the Senate Budget Committee next year but told The Hill that she cannot commit to doing a budget.


[link to thehill.com]

Thread: Banks told by Fed to test for 12% unemployment

The legendary Jim Sinclair sent an email alert to subscribers today, warning that all hell is about to break loose in the form of currency induced cost push inflation. Sinclair warns that the dollar index is headed towards .72 before crashing through long term support, gold is headed to $3,500 and beyond, and that the Fed will print to infinity to prevent a collapse of the Eurozone.

Treasury Secretary Geithner: Lift Debt Limit to Infinity

[link to cnsnews.com]

U.S. companies are scaling back investment plans at the fastest pace since the recession, signaling more trouble for the economic recovery.

U.S. companies are scaling back investment plans at the fastest pace since the recession, signaling more trouble for the economic recovery. Sudeep Reddy reports on Markets Hub.

Half of the nation's 40 biggest publicly traded corporate spenders have announced plans to curtail capital expenditures this year or next, according to a review by The Wall Street Journal of securities filings and conference calls.

[link to online.wsj.com]

It is the Sovereign Debt Crisis that is destroying everything. With almost 70% of national debts amounting to accumulative interest, the socialists who hate the rich cannot see what their policies have done. They blame the rich for having anything so they can grab it and do what? Pay the bond holders to keep the debt going? This is the greatest transfer of wealth that would even make Marx vomit.

[link to armstrongeconomics.com]

In the 1929-31 period, what really set the Great Depression in place (besides a drought) was the immediate reinvestment by some firms which had calculated the market was "due to bottom" and had sunk money in right then, and when it was found later that the market of the 1930's was more vicious than anyone could have ever imagined, these "early to the rally" players were slaughtered.

--Robin Landry

OK, the DTC ‘flooding’ a month ago during Sandy and all those paper certificates being water-logged in their Manhattan vault was one thing.

Today is quite something else, and the collars don’t match the cuffs.

CME announced that its Manfra (MBT) bullion depository can’t deliver bullion right now because of Sandy (force majeure).

- Sandy was a month ago. What? No sump pumps available? Does it take longer than a month to ‘rig’ some tungsten-filled delivery bars?
- Manfra is a bullion depository. Metal, not paper.
- Manfra is next door to the NY Fed that says its vaults 80 ft underground and 50 ft below sea-level are operating just fine.

How very convenient for our Cartel, especially since today is both Gold and Silver expiry on CME’s COMEX, and Friday is First Day notice.

- ‘Sorry old bean, can’t deliver physical just now. Water-logged. Sandy, you know, harrumph! That’s a good chap, be patient for a while.’

Of course, the inconvenience and extra cost of taking delivery from another CME facility wouldn’t have ANYTHING to do with ‘discouraging’ anyone standing for physical delivery right now.

- Nawwww! Say it ain’t so!

Perfect example of the Cartel’s "two step" dance, or is this like the song ‘gimme two steps towards the door?’

- Or, is it instead one more ‘indicator’ of a squeeze on physical supply?

Ted Butler on the COT report:


"By my calculations, JPMorgan is holding a net short position of 35,000 contracts in COMEX silver futures, one of their largest short positions ever, as of the latest COT. That’s the equivalent of 175 million oz. Because there was also a large increase in spread positions in the Disaggregated COT report, JPM’s market share is now up to 34% of the entire short side of the COMEX silver futures market. While I am stating this as factually as possible, it almost qualifies as being unbelievable."
Nothing free market about this. If you want a visual and historic representation of the COT reports going back about 16 year...these linked interactive charts show the short and long term trends for all COT categories, which are visible at a glance.

"The West sees gold as a means to hide the existence of inflation while the East sees it as protection from inflation. That means the West is selling gold whilst the East is buying it. ... The more central banks ask for audits and repatriation of their gold, the more that trend will accelerate; and the more that trend accelerates, the less gold will be left in the 'safe' confines of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England."

-Grant Williams, editor of the "Things That Make You Go Hmmm" letter

It all started back in 2011 during the showdown over raising our debt ceiling…

Republicans wanted spending cuts… Obama wanted to raise taxes.

Which led to a budget crisis that Congress solved by not solving it. Instead, they handed it over to something called the "super congress," which couldn't fail because it was super. Unfortunately it was also Congress… So it failed.

As a result, we are facing another thing called "sequestration"… Automatic spending cuts that both sides agree would trigger a new recession.

It's like Congress put a gun to the economy's head and swore it would pull the trigger if Congress doesn't put its own gun down.


--Stephen Colbert's--The Colbert Report

Remember, democracy never lasts long. It soon wastes, exhausts, and murders itself. There never was a democracy yet that did not commit suicide.
– John Adams (1735-1826) Founding Father, 2nd US President and Trader Dan Norcini


It’s discouraging to think how many people are shocked by honesty and how few by deceit."
– Noël Coward (1899-1973) British playwright


The average age of the world’s greatest civilizations has been two hundred years. These nations have progressed through this sequence: From bondage to spiritual faith; from spiritual faith to great courage; from courage to liberty; from liberty to abundance; from abundance to selfishness; from selfishness to complacency; from complacency to apathy; from apathy to dependence; from dependency back again into bondage.
– Sir Alex Fraser Tytler (1742-1813) Lord Woodhouselee, Scottish jurist, professor and historian (attributed)

Go to the Minneapolis Fed website and use their "inflation calculator" and pretend that you had $100 in 1913 - the year the Federal Reserve was slipped into operation (along with the income tax). How much money would you need today to have the same purchasing power?

Top Right of this link:
[link to www.minneapolisfed.org]

You will need more than 23-times more dollars today to buy what $100 would buy in 1913. Not only that, but we can reasonable expect that the purchasing power of money will continue to be "watered down" in order to "make up" enough paper - or fiat - money for the accounting to work out without us going Greece.

Contrary to what you are carefully programmed to believe - and this was one of the great banker bait and switches of the Depression: Prices DO NOT GO UP.

What's really happening is THE PURCHASING POWER OF MONEY IS WATERED DOWN.

The best possible investments are those which hold value over time: Producing farm land, precious metals, and so on. If you don't have investments which average 3 1/4 percent, they are - over the long term - losing purchasing power.

The trick of the financial industry is to show you how your money seems to be going up but for some reason it just doesn't buy as much.

The popular delusion is that the Dow has gone up since 2000. But the week ending January 10, 2000, the Dow was at 11,722.98.

So lets go back to that Minneapolis Fed calculator and see where the Dow would need to be today just to retain Y2k purchasing power:

The Dow needs to be at 15,822 and change just to hold even. And - remember that's after taxes on whatever supposed gains you've got - and after exchange fees and commissions.


It's not all bad, since a few stocks pay dividends, but for most of this period, the stock market wasn't sharing the dividends

I can't wait this long.

Thread: Middle Class Net Worth Collapses to 1969 Levels

the Kondratieff cycle



There is another way to look at it: You can see how at each of the technology peaks, in other words as soon as there had been maximum social displacement, we seems to get a WAR.

The War of 1812, the US Civil War, World War I and the Vietnam and Gulf War One were examples of peak wars.

We also have experienced a number of trough wars, generally following Depressions, and the largest here have been World War II, the Cold War, and more recently our succession of wars in what we'll label the "sand box" for short.

There may be one more Cycle, although it would be hotly debated...and that's the lifetime credit cycle.

Another ‘Black Friday’ has come and gone. And it has left us with further evidence of the complete madness of the populace of our nation. America has been dealt a fatal blow by corporate greed, Bankster malfeasance and the insidious nature of collectivism – and it’s all been done to us by design. This is the Madness of a Lost Society, one last ‘fair warning’ for those with the eyes to see and the ears to hear.

The Sovereign Debt Crisis is leading to authoritarian governments all over the world. Because government have to pay the bondholders and are scared to death of what happens if they cannot, we must lose all our liberties. It is not just the USA. It is everyone. You might want to know that it was Adolf Hitler who made it illegal for a German citizen to have an account at a bank outside of Germany. This is why Switzerland adopted the secrecy laws in 1934. The Swiss had the courage to stand up to Hitler, but neither to the USA or Germany today. In Switzerland, if you open an account at a bank they now require you to fill out a form stating you are not an American citizen. American are being thrown out of everywhere because the USA made it illegal if a foreign entity fails to inform the USA that one of its citizens has an account. France is more or less ignoring the global trend and is putting peddle to the medal. As if they were driving straight off a cliff, they have simply sped up the process. On Wednesday the French government approved a measure that will lower the retirement age to 60 from 62 for a narrow group of workers, reversing the unpopular pension reforms made by former President Nicolas Sarkozy.

The government are all about self-interest. If you really think anything will change for the positive, think again:

[link to www.telegraph.co.uk]