Watching Another Possible Nor'easter for the East Coast - Thanksgiving Week

Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Hard to describe ECMWF 00z version of Nor'easter -- massive gyre more like it. Blocks do weird stuff. [link to twitter.com]

5 hRyan Maue‏@RyanMaue

GFS 00z hits repeat button Sun/Mon: 1040 mb blocking high and a Nor'easter coastal low. [link to twitter.com]

Joe Bastardi‏@BigJoeBastardi

ECMWF takes deepening low up 70 west.. further east but stronger with thanskgiving week threat [link to twitter.com]

5 hJoe Bastardi‏@BigJoeBastardi

Model shows 35-50 kt winds in coastal waters Monday [link to twitter.com]

5 hJoe Bastardi‏@BigJoeBastardi

GFS still has pre Thanksgiving day coastal problem for ne beaches. Prolonged onshore flow into Sandy ravaged areas

Joe Bastardi‏@BigJoeBastardi

@JimCantore big problem is 2-3 day coastal storm before no beach to protect main part of barrier islands


8 hJoe Bastardi‏@BigJoeBastardi

squall line approaching, temp 64 before front wind coming from all over the place

Freeze Warnings for the Deep South

Temperatures are expected to drop below freezing throughout portions of Texas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Mississippi and Alabama. Pet owners should take precautions to protect outdoor animals from the freezing conditions. The cold could also harm sensitive vegetation that is left outside, unprotected. Overnight temperatures later this week are expected to be a little milder.

Thanks for the updates!

AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

Big changes coming in the East today with the passage of a strong cold front this morning. How cold will it get? [link to www.accuweather.com]

I'm really interested to see if it will drop into the negatives for the northeast this winter. I bought new boots that are good down to -40F.

3 minAccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

Colder air moving into the Northeast (30º colder this AM for many) is triggering lake-effect snow showers.

AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

RT @nwsboston: Worcester airport 61 at 6:06 and 47 at 6:54. Eastern MA and RI have this kind of temp drop to look forward to.

Latest GFS Model still showing nearly stationary coastal storm off East Coast on Sunday and Monday. Possible rain/snow.

[link to twitter.com]

Brad Panovich
Pattern is consistent and now so is the guidance on a nor'easter developing by the middle of next week. The exact track is still hard to determine this far out. It is likely going to be close enough to the coast to cause Thanksgiving holiday travel trouble for some of the east coast airports. Stay tuned.

Hard to describe ECMWF 00z version of Nor'easter -- massive gyre more like it. Blocks do weird stuff.

[link to twitter.com]

My boots are the special higher-tech European versions that are good down to -40C !

AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

RT @capitalweather: Rain showers continue thru late morning and COLD. Temps only in low 40s. Reports of a sleet mix in Leesburg!

HIGH WIND WARNING FOR ADAK, ALASKA

.. HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT...

* WIND... SOUTHWEST WIND 50 TO 65 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 85 MPH.

* TIMING... THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.

* IMPACTS... HIGH WINDS MAY MOVE LOOSE DEBRIS AND MAY DAMAGE PROPERTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT COULD BE BLOWN AROUND OR DAMAGED BY THE WIND. [link to i.imgur.com]

You have got to be kidding me? Another powerful storm possible for Northeast next week?



ECMWF Day 8 showing yet another large coastal storm off the Northeast

I thought that perhaps I stumbled across some old link and had to refresh my browser. That did not help. The map was the same. It showed something that nearly made me gasp. Once again the global computer models are aligning to bring a large storm in to the region that Sandy impacted followed by the strong Nor’easter just last week. It’s as if the recent warm up and nice weather was just a tease before the siege begins anew from the Atlantic.

Take a look at the latest run of the ECWMF model that I have posted here. Look at the size of that storm! The fetch of wind across so much of the Atlantic is unsettling to say the least. I don’t know how else to put this other than to say: this is horrible! How much more can these people endure? I hope a lot because if this comes to pass, it will surely test the will of the storm-weary people who live along the mid-Atlantic and Northeast coast.


Sea surface temperatures in the NW Atlantic clearly running well above normal

What is the reason behind so much storminess? It’s the pattern we’re in. We see these deep troughs of low pressure digging in across the East Coast with plenty of upper level energy diving in which in turn spawns these giant ocean storms just off shore. It is interesting to note that water temps across the northwest Atlantic are running several degrees above normal right now. Maybe this is helping to fuel these storms? What ever the background reason is, it is becoming a real problem. Hopefully this scenario is far enough out in time that the models will change enough and in our favor so as to not have to deal with this. I worry though that the ECMWF, which handled Sandy’s fate very well this far out in time, is on to something once again, especially since the pattern is so remarkably similar – minus the hurricane coming out of the Caribbean of course.

Needless to say we will want to watch the evolution of this potential storm very closely. I’ll stay on top of it and post another update this evening. At least the tropics are quiet with no areas what so ever to be concerned with.
[link to hurricanetrack.com]

58. AGWcreationists04:16 PM GMT em 13 de Novembro de 2012

A question, from a historical perspective. From the wunderground Weather History blog:

The Great Storm of October 29, 1693: Virginia to Long Island

A tremendous storm, possibly tropical in origin, changed the course of rivers and modified the coastline from the Delmarva Peninsula to Long Island. It is believed that Fire Island (just east of New York City) was bisected by the storm. The same apparently occurred to many coastal portions of the Delmarva Peninsula and region around Chesapeake Bay.

----------

This hit on the same calander day as Sandy and sounds much more severe.

It also hit a long, long time before the onset of the industrial revolution.

So IMO that makes the argument that Sandy was triggered or affected by global warming harder to make. When you have a precendent from outside the era of human-added CO2, hitting at exactly the same time of year in the same region, it shows that natural forces alone are capable of triggering such an event.
[link to www.wunderground.com]

No Sandy was not triggered by global warming. It was engineered and there is plenty of evidence of that.

3 minAccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

Update: Impact map added to news story about potential Thanksgiving week nor'easter. [link to www.accuweather.com]

2 minAccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

A nor'easter may slow Thanksgiving travel in the Northeast, while a West Coast storm may also hit. [link to www.accuweather.com]

Marine Weather Discussion

Excerpt:

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WEEKEND...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT SHOWING AN NEGATIVELY TILTED MID TO UPPER TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE SE UNITED STATES BY FRI. THE ECMWF IS TRENDING IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET INDICATING A CUT OFF LOW FORMING OVER GEORGIA BY SAT...WITH THE GFS REMAINING SOMEWHAT WEAKER. THE UKMET FORMS A SURFACE LOW OFF NE FLORIDA FRI INTO SAT. FORECAST FOLLOWS MORE CONSERVATIVE GFS SOLUTION FOR NOW BUT GIVEN THE SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT TO THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH THIS MAY BE ADJUSTED IN TIME. AT ANY RATE...ALL SOLUTIONS SHOW ONLY MODERATE WINDS FRI AND SAT.

3 minAccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

Huge temperature change for Pittsburgh today: Yesterday at this time it was 69 degrees F. Now, it's only 37.

[link to www.ecmwf.int]

It's so cold this morning!

Models are starting to gel on this.

Looks like it could hit Thanksgiving day.

[link to moe.met.fsu.edu]

[link to moe.met.fsu.edu]

[link to moe.met.fsu.edu]

[link to moe.met.fsu.edu]

Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Looking forward to ECMWF 00z to see comparison with GFS. After 6-7 days, models were on different planets for North America.


5 hRyan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Last 3 GFS forecasts keep E. Coast low well off shore in +7-day range. No major systems over lower-48. [link to twitter.com]

East Coast Nor'easter Potential Thanksgiving Week

[link to www.accuweather.com]

Joe Bastardi:

The ecoast threat nxt week is amped not because of snow or winds knocking trees over,but because of coastal flooding of Sandy battered areas

[link to twitter.com]