Mid November review

Based upon previous data the longest for this to take place is within two weeks.
Personally I feel it will be by the 21st at the latest.

Guatemala down through Chile is what I'm most concerned about by far.

Somewhere between Guatemala down through Chile will have a at least one large quake next, that is for sure at very least and is the reason for this thread.

......

I know there are a lot of doom threads out there.. I'm not trying to BS people.
My record is important to me, check my others threads and what others have said and you'll know I'm not messing around.

Some of my recent track record:

By following a sequential pattern I have predicted future buoy activity and future large quakes accurately.

Such as the recent 7.5 Guatemala earthquake days before it happened:



Yesterday at 5:40PM I replied saying this:



Since then look what's happened:

"Guatemala down to Chile for increased activity and 7+"

Here is your increased activity alright!

Remember my quote was from 5:40 Eastern time.
Look what's happened since then...

4.2 Costa Rica
[link to earthquake.usgs.gov]

5.0 Ecuador
[link to earthquake.usgs.gov]

5.0 Chile
[link to earthquake.usgs.gov]

6.0 Chile
[link to earthquake.usgs.gov]

4.8 Guatemala
[link to earthquake.usgs.gov]

4.3 Nicaragua
[link to earthquake.usgs.gov]

4.8 Guatemala
[link to earthquake.usgs.gov]

12/3 review below

On 11/15 & 16 two large quakes hit in the black zone warning area I gave.


The 7+ for the red area never came.. however a vast increase in higher mid range quakes increased and then slowed down by the 22nd.
I counted four 6+ earthquakes, although a lot of them were eventually downgraded.
Below is a screen shot of S. America for a month of earthquakes 5.2 and larger.
Again note you'll see from the 13th though the 22 the uptick


So while there was definitely an obvious uptick and four 6ish earthquakes within a week, none reached the 7+ I pointed out.
Where does that leave me?
I use to be 100% accurate in forecasting when I had complete buoy data from the Indonesian area, now recently some buoy data has been shut down I've been doing guess work with the data I have left.
Guess work mainly based upon adjustments in the Northern Pacific, for this forecast I just buoy data off of Alaska and the 6.4 quake that occurred there a few days before the forecast.
So in a way yes, the pattern was correct as it did lead to an increase of activity in the areas pointed out but it just wasn't as strong.
I now believe next time I need to wait for larger activity in the Northern Pacific before forecasting the lower Americas.
Bare in mind the Northern Pacific was involved in all my other previous accurate predictions leading to the lower Americas but then I had complete buoy data available.

Last Edited by Bending Light on 12/04/2012 12:00 AM