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Right on cue a 6.8 earthquake

 
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 27300175
Greece
11/16/2012 02:47 PM
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Re: Right on cue a 6.8 earthquake
[link to earthquake.usgs.gov]

Severo Kuril'sk Russia. Are larger on the way?
 Quoting: hapless moran


Are you aware that there are on the average ~180 quakes measuring 6-6.9 every year? That means one every couple of days. Then there are those in the 7-9+ range as well.

this is nothing significant

you live on a relatively thin crust that is floating around a molten ball of metal
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 12441154


According to Wikipedia, 100-150 6.0-6.9 earthquakes happen each year. (Info follows in italics.) Any mathematicians on line want to calculate what the odds are for Geryl's accuracy to date, and what the odds will be that he will be right November 20 +/- one day? (I don't know enough to argue that he IS right, but I would guess that he is beating the odds. And, yes, I have always held with the conventional and scientific opinion that earthquakes CANNOT be predicted, but . . . )

6.0–6.9 Strong VI to X Can be damaging/destructive in populated areas. Damage to many to all buildings; poorly designed structures incur moderate to severe damage. Earthquake-resistant structures survive with slight to moderate damage. Most likely felt hundreds of miles/kilometers from the epicenter. Can be damaging further from the epicenter; up to tens of miles/kilometers away. Death toll between none and 25,000. 100 to 150 per year
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 9253046


Let's calculate that one...As far as i know for sure, Patrick hit at least 3 of the last 4 Major 7+ quakes...there are about 15 total in a year, which means 1,25 a month. To predict one correctly with a 1-day span gives a chance of 4,1%. For a 2-day span goes to 8.2%. So, assuming 2 of each groups for the ones he hit, total possibility of 3 consequitive 7+ mag quakes is 0,02%.

About the 6+ quakes he hit: I'm assuming the lowest number that we can verify he hit here, are about 4. There are about 125 6+ quakes a year, which means around 34% chance for one to occur in one day. Therefore, hiting 4 of them consequitively, has a chance of happening around 1,33%.

Now if we multiply both the 7+ and 6+ chance, we get an abysmal chance of 0,000266% of happening!

That doesn't mean of course that Geryl is 100% right about his whole theory, but that his eq-theory and the way he predicts them actually works!

peace
hapless moran (OP)

User ID: 1130234
United States
11/16/2012 02:49 PM

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Re: Right on cue a 6.8 earthquake
Kudos to Matrix...
free your inner baboon.
hapless moran (OP)

User ID: 1130234
United States
11/16/2012 02:51 PM

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Re: Right on cue a 6.8 earthquake
[link to earthquake.usgs.gov]

Severo Kuril'sk Russia. Are larger on the way?
 Quoting: hapless moran


Are you aware that there are on the average ~180 quakes measuring 6-6.9 every year? That means one every couple of days. Then there are those in the 7-9+ range as well.

this is nothing significant

you live on a relatively thin crust that is floating around a molten ball of metal
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 12441154


According to Wikipedia, 100-150 6.0-6.9 earthquakes happen each year. (Info follows in italics.) Any mathematicians on line want to calculate what the odds are for Geryl's accuracy to date, and what the odds will be that he will be right November 20 +/- one day? (I don't know enough to argue that he IS right, but I would guess that he is beating the odds. And, yes, I have always held with the conventional and scientific opinion that earthquakes CANNOT be predicted, but . . . )

6.0–6.9 Strong VI to X Can be damaging/destructive in populated areas. Damage to many to all buildings; poorly designed structures incur moderate to severe damage. Earthquake-resistant structures survive with slight to moderate damage. Most likely felt hundreds of miles/kilometers from the epicenter. Can be damaging further from the epicenter; up to tens of miles/kilometers away. Death toll between none and 25,000. 100 to 150 per year
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 9253046


Let's calculate that one...As far as i know for sure, Patrick hit at least 3 of the last 4 Major 7+ quakes...there are about 15 total in a year, which means 1,25 a month. To predict one correctly with a 1-day span gives a chance of 4,1%. For a 2-day span goes to 8.2%. So, assuming 2 of each groups for the ones he hit, total possibility of 3 consequitive 7+ mag quakes is 0,02%.

About the 6+ quakes he hit: I'm assuming the lowest number that we can verify he hit here, are about 4. There are about 125 6+ quakes a year, which means around 34% chance for one to occur in one day. Therefore, hiting 4 of them consequitively, has a chance of happening around 1,33%.

Now if we multiply both the 7+ and 6+ chance, we get an abysmal chance of 0,000266% of happening!

That doesn't mean of course that Geryl is 100% right about his whole theory, but that his eq-theory and the way he predicts them actually works!

peace
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 27300175


clappa

Buy this man some Ouzo!
free your inner baboon.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 9253046
United States
11/16/2012 02:55 PM
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Re: Right on cue a 6.8 earthquake
[link to earthquake.usgs.gov]

Severo Kuril'sk Russia. Are larger on the way?
 Quoting: hapless moran


Are you aware that there are on the average ~180 quakes measuring 6-6.9 every year? That means one every couple of days. Then there are those in the 7-9+ range as well.

this is nothing significant

you live on a relatively thin crust that is floating around a molten ball of metal
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 12441154


According to Wikipedia, 100-150 6.0-6.9 earthquakes happen each year. (Info follows in italics.) Any mathematicians on line want to calculate what the odds are for Geryl's accuracy to date, and what the odds will be that he will be right November 20 +/- one day? (I don't know enough to argue that he IS right, but I would guess that he is beating the odds. And, yes, I have always held with the conventional and scientific opinion that earthquakes CANNOT be predicted, but . . . )

6.0–6.9 Strong VI to X Can be damaging/destructive in populated areas. Damage to many to all buildings; poorly designed structures incur moderate to severe damage. Earthquake-resistant structures survive with slight to moderate damage. Most likely felt hundreds of miles/kilometers from the epicenter. Can be damaging further from the epicenter; up to tens of miles/kilometers away. Death toll between none and 25,000. 100 to 150 per year
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 9253046


Let's calculate that one...As far as i know for sure, Patrick hit at least 3 of the last 4 Major 7+ quakes...there are about 15 total in a year, which means 1,25 a month. To predict one correctly with a 1-day span gives a chance of 4,1%. For a 2-day span goes to 8.2%. So, assuming 2 of each groups for the ones he hit, total possibility of 3 consequitive 7+ mag quakes is 0,02%.

About the 6+ quakes he hit: I'm assuming the lowest number that we can verify he hit here, are about 4. There are about 125 6+ quakes a year, which means around 34% chance for one to occur in one day. Therefore, hiting 4 of them consequitively, has a chance of happening around 1,33%.

Now if we multiply both the 7+ and 6+ chance, we get an abysmal chance of 0,000266% of happening!

That doesn't mean of course that Geryl is 100% right about his whole theory, but that his eq-theory and the way he predicts them actually works!

peace
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 27300175


THANKS YOUclappa AND KUDOS TO YOU, SIR!! (Is Kudos a Greek work?)
hapless moran (OP)

User ID: 1130234
United States
11/16/2012 02:58 PM

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Re: Right on cue a 6.8 earthquake
I think the Greek would be something like kydos.
free your inner baboon.
Anonymous Coward
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Greece
11/16/2012 02:59 PM
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Re: Right on cue a 6.8 earthquake
Buy this man some Ouzo!
 Quoting: hapless moran


Yeah, that would be the best to warm me up a bit, it's getting cold in here...5a
INK3

User ID: 27337849
United States
11/16/2012 03:00 PM
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Re: Right on cue a 6.8 earthquake
So the next time one of these fakers "predicts" a coming quake make them provide coordinates too. They NEVER will.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 12441154


Interesting. Hadn't even thought of that.
"When tyrants tremble in their fear, and hear their death knell ringing,
When friends rejoice both far and near, how can I keep from singing"

page7
Rochelle

User ID: 1471245
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11/16/2012 03:03 PM

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Re: Right on cue a 6.8 earthquake
I don't know but we here in SoCal have been having damn near 3.0's for the last few hours.
"For once you have tasted flight you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards, for there you have been and there you will long to return"
Wash

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Canada
11/16/2012 03:17 PM

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Re: Right on cue a 6.8 earthquake
I don't know but we here in SoCal have been having damn near 3.0's for the last few hours.
 Quoting: Rochelle


SoCal...yikes. Do you own a boat or a raft?
Roll Tide Roll.
Rochelle

User ID: 1471245
United States
11/16/2012 03:27 PM

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Re: Right on cue a 6.8 earthquake
I don't know but we here in SoCal have been having damn near 3.0's for the last few hours.
 Quoting: Rochelle


SoCal...yikes. Do you own a boat or a raft?
 Quoting: Wash


No sweets, headin for the hills if the water comes in. After being on this site I researched my area quite a bit and found out what I needed to do if water comes our way.
"For once you have tasted flight you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards, for there you have been and there you will long to return"
Wash

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Canada
11/16/2012 03:37 PM

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Re: Right on cue a 6.8 earthquake
I don't know but we here in SoCal have been having damn near 3.0's for the last few hours.
 Quoting: Rochelle


SoCal...yikes. Do you own a boat or a raft?
 Quoting: Wash


No sweets, headin for the hills if the water comes in. After being on this site I researched my area quite a bit and found out what I needed to do if water comes our way.
 Quoting: Rochelle


You can get away from the masses before the streets are clogged?
Roll Tide Roll.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 15751650
Canada
11/16/2012 03:44 PM
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Re: Right on cue a 6.8 earthquake
WOW Haarp is in overdrive right now!!!!

[link to www.haarp.alaska.edu]
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 17084496
United States
11/16/2012 03:49 PM
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Re: Right on cue a 6.8 earthquake
Geryl is correct and 12/21/12 is gonna be epic for some continent. THE quake of all quakes!
Rochelle

User ID: 1471245
United States
11/16/2012 03:52 PM

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Re: Right on cue a 6.8 earthquake
I don't know but we here in SoCal have been having damn near 3.0's for the last few hours.
 Quoting: Rochelle


SoCal...yikes. Do you own a boat or a raft?
 Quoting: Wash


No sweets, headin for the hills if the water comes in. After being on this site I researched my area quite a bit and found out what I needed to do if water comes our way.
 Quoting: Rochelle


You can get away from the masses before the streets are clogged?
 Quoting: Wash


Ya our town isn't that big, we live about 2 miles from the base of the hill. Also about 20 miles inland.
"For once you have tasted flight you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards, for there you have been and there you will long to return"
Anonymous Coward
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11/16/2012 03:59 PM
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Re: Right on cue a 6.8 earthquake
So Russia receives a EQ right after Putin announces he will support Egypt in their fight against Israel....hmmmm
Nika

User ID: 27839109
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11/16/2012 04:01 PM
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Re: Right on cue a 6.8 earthquake
Would someone mind posting a link to this Patrick guy, pretty please.
THis is the first time hearing about him.
:infnty:

:ihavgsbmp:
Anonymous Coward
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United States
11/16/2012 04:05 PM
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Re: Right on cue a 6.8 earthquake
Wow - going to be quite a weekend
DaddysGirl

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11/16/2012 04:10 PM

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Re: Right on cue a 6.8 earthquake
Geryl is correct and 12/21/12 is gonna be epic for some continent. THE quake of all quakes!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 17084496


If the 'pole shift' is going to happen on the 21st, the earthquake would be world wide and I'm sure that would be much more than a 10+ quake...

JMHO...hf

endtime
watchergirl
Custodian
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United Kingdom
11/16/2012 04:18 PM
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Re: Right on cue a 6.8 earthquake
So Russia receives a EQ right after Putin announces he will support Egypt in their fight against Israel....hmmmm
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1010412


readup
Reality420
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11/16/2012 04:22 PM
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Re: Right on cue a 6.8 earthquake
November 7-8: Possible 7 plus (HIT -- Guatemala)
November 13-14: 6.5 plus (HIT - Alaska)
November 15-16: 6.5 plus (HIT - Kuril Islands)
November 20: 6 plus
November 22-23 6.5 plus
November 28: 7
December 4-5: 7 plus
December 11: 7 plus
December 17-18: 8 plus
December 21: 10 PLUS

None of these dates were edited, been like this all the time

A broken watch isn't right thrice on the day, is it?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 5680160


Thanks for the list.
I looked back on GLP and couldn't find any record of him making earlier predictions except for posts claiming hits after the fact.

Do you have a site with his predictions listed so we can copy them to preclude alteration?

BTW - there was no hit for November 13-14. The Alaska quake came on the 12th.
How much leeway are you going to give him, or how much has he given himself on mag and timing?

In the past 10 years a Mag. 6+ quake had a 50/50 chance of happening every 36 hours. Not too hard to be right on mag 6+.
Odds for a mag 6+:
Window = 1 day: 37%
Window = 36hrs: 50%
Window = 2 days: 60.3%
Window = 3 days: 75%
Not very impressive.


R.
Anonymous Coward
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United Kingdom
11/16/2012 05:57 PM
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Re: Right on cue a 6.8 earthquake
[link to earthquake.usgs.gov]

Severo Kuril'sk Russia. Are larger on the way?
 Quoting: hapless moran


ive been waiting for another biggy in japan i believe is around the corner.(hope im wrong).
Goofy for God
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11/16/2012 06:29 PM

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Re: Right on cue a 6.8 earthquake
Sun , war, eq yep almost timehiding
Proverbs 15:1
A soft answer turns away wrath, But a harsh word stirs up anger.
Anonymous Coward
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United States
11/16/2012 06:52 PM
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Re: Right on cue a 6.8 earthquake
bump
Goofy for God
Do everything with love

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11/16/2012 08:06 PM

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Re: Right on cue a 6.8 earthquake
[link to www.isthisthingon.org]

Yellowstone
Proverbs 15:1
A soft answer turns away wrath, But a harsh word stirs up anger.
MatrixLNIN11

User ID: 20347511
United States
11/20/2012 02:39 AM

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Re: Right on cue a 6.8 earthquake
[link to earthquake.usgs.gov]

Severo Kuril'sk Russia. Are larger on the way?
 Quoting: hapless moran


Are you aware that there are on the average ~180 quakes measuring 6-6.9 every year? That means one every couple of days. Then there are those in the 7-9+ range as well.

this is nothing significant

you live on a relatively thin crust that is floating around a molten ball of metal
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 12441154


According to Wikipedia, 100-150 6.0-6.9 earthquakes happen each year. (Info follows in italics.) Any mathematicians on line want to calculate what the odds are for Geryl's accuracy to date, and what the odds will be that he will be right November 20 +/- one day? (I don't know enough to argue that he IS right, but I would guess that he is beating the odds. And, yes, I have always held with the conventional and scientific opinion that earthquakes CANNOT be predicted, but . . . )

6.0–6.9 Strong VI to X Can be damaging/destructive in populated areas. Damage to many to all buildings; poorly designed structures incur moderate to severe damage. Earthquake-resistant structures survive with slight to moderate damage. Most likely felt hundreds of miles/kilometers from the epicenter. Can be damaging further from the epicenter; up to tens of miles/kilometers away. Death toll between none and 25,000. 100 to 150 per year
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 9253046


Let's calculate that one...As far as i know for sure, Patrick hit at least 3 of the last 4 Major 7+ quakes...there are about 15 total in a year, which means 1,25 a month. To predict one correctly with a 1-day span gives a chance of 4,1%. For a 2-day span goes to 8.2%. So, assuming 2 of each groups for the ones he hit, total possibility of 3 consequitive 7+ mag quakes is 0,02%.

About the 6+ quakes he hit: I'm assuming the lowest number that we can verify he hit here, are about 4. There are about 125 6+ quakes a year, which means around 34% chance for one to occur in one day. Therefore, hiting 4 of them consequitively, has a chance of happening around 1,33%.

Now if we multiply both the 7+ and 6+ chance, we get an abysmal chance of 0,000266% of happening!

That doesn't mean of course that Geryl is 100% right about his whole theory, but that his eq-theory and the way he predicts them actually works!

peace
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 27300175


So now compare the quakes that have connected to not only my warnings, but also the LEY LINE factor, and I don't think there's enough space in this post to calculate the odds.
MatrixLNIN11

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United States
11/20/2012 02:40 AM

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Re: Right on cue a 6.8 earthquake
Kudos to Matrix...
 Quoting: hapless moran


TY hm

you ready for next week? ;)
Deej

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11/20/2012 02:42 AM
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Re: Right on cue a 6.8 earthquake
well...

doom face

Last Edited by Deej on 11/20/2012 02:53 AM
No matter what happens... just say "Thank You." - D W Fierce
hapless moran (OP)

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United States
11/20/2012 09:45 AM

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Re: Right on cue a 6.8 earthquake
Kudos to Matrix...
 Quoting: hapless moran


TY hm

you ready for next week? ;)
 Quoting: MatrixLNIN11


We'll see what happens.
free your inner baboon.
Wash

User ID: 6406905
Canada
11/20/2012 09:50 AM

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Re: Right on cue a 6.8 earthquake
Kudos to Matrix...
 Quoting: hapless moran


TY hm

you ready for next week? ;)
 Quoting: MatrixLNIN11


We'll see what happens.
 Quoting: hapless moran


I believe P. Geryl has predicted an M6+ for today and an M6.5+ for 22/23rd.
Roll Tide Roll.
hapless moran (OP)

User ID: 28116391
United States
11/20/2012 09:56 AM

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Re: Right on cue a 6.8 earthquake
Kudos to Matrix...
 Quoting: hapless moran


TY hm

you ready for next week? ;)
 Quoting: MatrixLNIN11


We'll see what happens.
 Quoting: hapless moran


I believe P. Geryl has predicted an M6+ for today and an M6.5+ for 22/23rd.
 Quoting: Wash


In Tuscaloosa at the moment. I noticed yesterday on the drive down what looked like earthquake clouds in Northern Alabama and there was a 2.6 later in the day in the general vicinity of the clouds. Very interesting.
free your inner baboon.

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