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# Right on cue a 6.8 earthquake

Anonymous Coward
User ID: 27300175
Greece
11/16/2012 02:47 PM
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Re: Right on cue a 6.8 earthquake

Severo Kuril'sk Russia. Are larger on the way?
Quoting: hapless moran

Are you aware that there are on the average ~180 quakes measuring 6-6.9 every year? That means one every couple of days. Then there are those in the 7-9+ range as well.

this is nothing significant

you live on a relatively thin crust that is floating around a molten ball of metal
Quoting: Anonymous Coward 12441154

According to Wikipedia, 100-150 6.0-6.9 earthquakes happen each year. (Info follows in italics.) Any mathematicians on line want to calculate what the odds are for Geryl's accuracy to date, and what the odds will be that he will be right November 20 +/- one day? (I don't know enough to argue that he IS right, but I would guess that he is beating the odds. And, yes, I have always held with the conventional and scientific opinion that earthquakes CANNOT be predicted, but . . . )

6.0–6.9 Strong VI to X Can be damaging/destructive in populated areas. Damage to many to all buildings; poorly designed structures incur moderate to severe damage. Earthquake-resistant structures survive with slight to moderate damage. Most likely felt hundreds of miles/kilometers from the epicenter. Can be damaging further from the epicenter; up to tens of miles/kilometers away. Death toll between none and 25,000. 100 to 150 per year
Quoting: Anonymous Coward 9253046

Let's calculate that one...As far as i know for sure, Patrick hit at least 3 of the last 4 Major 7+ quakes...there are about 15 total in a year, which means 1,25 a month. To predict one correctly with a 1-day span gives a chance of 4,1%. For a 2-day span goes to 8.2%. So, assuming 2 of each groups for the ones he hit, total possibility of 3 consequitive 7+ mag quakes is 0,02%.

About the 6+ quakes he hit: I'm assuming the lowest number that we can verify he hit here, are about 4. There are about 125 6+ quakes a year, which means around 34% chance for one to occur in one day. Therefore, hiting 4 of them consequitively, has a chance of happening around 1,33%.

Now if we multiply both the 7+ and 6+ chance, we get an abysmal chance of 0,000266% of happening!

That doesn't mean of course that Geryl is 100% right about his whole theory, but that his eq-theory and the way he predicts them actually works!

hapless moran (OP)

User ID: 1130234
United States
11/16/2012 02:49 PM
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Re: Right on cue a 6.8 earthquake
Kudos to Matrix...
hapless moran (OP)

User ID: 1130234
United States
11/16/2012 02:51 PM
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Re: Right on cue a 6.8 earthquake

Severo Kuril'sk Russia. Are larger on the way?
Quoting: hapless moran

Are you aware that there are on the average ~180 quakes measuring 6-6.9 every year? That means one every couple of days. Then there are those in the 7-9+ range as well.

this is nothing significant

you live on a relatively thin crust that is floating around a molten ball of metal
Quoting: Anonymous Coward 12441154

According to Wikipedia, 100-150 6.0-6.9 earthquakes happen each year. (Info follows in italics.) Any mathematicians on line want to calculate what the odds are for Geryl's accuracy to date, and what the odds will be that he will be right November 20 +/- one day? (I don't know enough to argue that he IS right, but I would guess that he is beating the odds. And, yes, I have always held with the conventional and scientific opinion that earthquakes CANNOT be predicted, but . . . )

6.0–6.9 Strong VI to X Can be damaging/destructive in populated areas. Damage to many to all buildings; poorly designed structures incur moderate to severe damage. Earthquake-resistant structures survive with slight to moderate damage. Most likely felt hundreds of miles/kilometers from the epicenter. Can be damaging further from the epicenter; up to tens of miles/kilometers away. Death toll between none and 25,000. 100 to 150 per year
Quoting: Anonymous Coward 9253046

Let's calculate that one...As far as i know for sure, Patrick hit at least 3 of the last 4 Major 7+ quakes...there are about 15 total in a year, which means 1,25 a month. To predict one correctly with a 1-day span gives a chance of 4,1%. For a 2-day span goes to 8.2%. So, assuming 2 of each groups for the ones he hit, total possibility of 3 consequitive 7+ mag quakes is 0,02%.

About the 6+ quakes he hit: I'm assuming the lowest number that we can verify he hit here, are about 4. There are about 125 6+ quakes a year, which means around 34% chance for one to occur in one day. Therefore, hiting 4 of them consequitively, has a chance of happening around 1,33%.

Now if we multiply both the 7+ and 6+ chance, we get an abysmal chance of 0,000266% of happening!

That doesn't mean of course that Geryl is 100% right about his whole theory, but that his eq-theory and the way he predicts them actually works!

Quoting: Anonymous Coward 27300175

Anonymous Coward
User ID: 9253046
United States
11/16/2012 02:55 PM
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Re: Right on cue a 6.8 earthquake

Severo Kuril'sk Russia. Are larger on the way?
Quoting: hapless moran

Are you aware that there are on the average ~180 quakes measuring 6-6.9 every year? That means one every couple of days. Then there are those in the 7-9+ range as well.

this is nothing significant

you live on a relatively thin crust that is floating around a molten ball of metal
Quoting: Anonymous Coward 12441154

According to Wikipedia, 100-150 6.0-6.9 earthquakes happen each year. (Info follows in italics.) Any mathematicians on line want to calculate what the odds are for Geryl's accuracy to date, and what the odds will be that he will be right November 20 +/- one day? (I don't know enough to argue that he IS right, but I would guess that he is beating the odds. And, yes, I have always held with the conventional and scientific opinion that earthquakes CANNOT be predicted, but . . . )

6.0–6.9 Strong VI to X Can be damaging/destructive in populated areas. Damage to many to all buildings; poorly designed structures incur moderate to severe damage. Earthquake-resistant structures survive with slight to moderate damage. Most likely felt hundreds of miles/kilometers from the epicenter. Can be damaging further from the epicenter; up to tens of miles/kilometers away. Death toll between none and 25,000. 100 to 150 per year
Quoting: Anonymous Coward 9253046

Let's calculate that one...As far as i know for sure, Patrick hit at least 3 of the last 4 Major 7+ quakes...there are about 15 total in a year, which means 1,25 a month. To predict one correctly with a 1-day span gives a chance of 4,1%. For a 2-day span goes to 8.2%. So, assuming 2 of each groups for the ones he hit, total possibility of 3 consequitive 7+ mag quakes is 0,02%.

About the 6+ quakes he hit: I'm assuming the lowest number that we can verify he hit here, are about 4. There are about 125 6+ quakes a year, which means around 34% chance for one to occur in one day. Therefore, hiting 4 of them consequitively, has a chance of happening around 1,33%.

Now if we multiply both the 7+ and 6+ chance, we get an abysmal chance of 0,000266% of happening!

That doesn't mean of course that Geryl is 100% right about his whole theory, but that his eq-theory and the way he predicts them actually works!

Quoting: Anonymous Coward 27300175

THANKS YOU AND KUDOS TO YOU, SIR!! (Is Kudos a Greek work?)
hapless moran (OP)

User ID: 1130234
United States
11/16/2012 02:58 PM
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Re: Right on cue a 6.8 earthquake
I think the Greek would be something like kydos.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 27300175
Greece
11/16/2012 02:59 PM
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Re: Right on cue a 6.8 earthquake
Quoting: hapless moran

Yeah, that would be the best to warm me up a bit, it's getting cold in here...
INK3

User ID: 27337849
United States
11/16/2012 03:00 PM
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Re: Right on cue a 6.8 earthquake
So the next time one of these fakers "predicts" a coming quake make them provide coordinates too. They NEVER will.
Quoting: Anonymous Coward 12441154

Interesting. Hadn't even thought of that.
"When tyrants tremble in their fear, and hear their death knell ringing,
When friends rejoice both far and near, how can I keep from singing"

page7
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1471245
United States
11/16/2012 03:03 PM
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Re: Right on cue a 6.8 earthquake
I don't know but we here in SoCal have been having damn near 3.0's for the last few hours.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 6406905
11/16/2012 03:17 PM
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Re: Right on cue a 6.8 earthquake
I don't know but we here in SoCal have been having damn near 3.0's for the last few hours.
Quoting: Rochelle

SoCal...yikes. Do you own a boat or a raft?
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1471245
United States
11/16/2012 03:27 PM
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Re: Right on cue a 6.8 earthquake
I don't know but we here in SoCal have been having damn near 3.0's for the last few hours.
Quoting: Rochelle

SoCal...yikes. Do you own a boat or a raft?
Quoting: Wash

No sweets, headin for the hills if the water comes in. After being on this site I researched my area quite a bit and found out what I needed to do if water comes our way.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 6406905
11/16/2012 03:37 PM
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Re: Right on cue a 6.8 earthquake
I don't know but we here in SoCal have been having damn near 3.0's for the last few hours.
Quoting: Rochelle

SoCal...yikes. Do you own a boat or a raft?
Quoting: Wash

No sweets, headin for the hills if the water comes in. After being on this site I researched my area quite a bit and found out what I needed to do if water comes our way.
Quoting: Rochelle

You can get away from the masses before the streets are clogged?
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 15751650
11/16/2012 03:44 PM
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Re: Right on cue a 6.8 earthquake
WOW Haarp is in overdrive right now!!!!

Anonymous Coward
User ID: 17084496
United States
11/16/2012 03:49 PM
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Re: Right on cue a 6.8 earthquake
Geryl is correct and 12/21/12 is gonna be epic for some continent. THE quake of all quakes!
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1471245
United States
11/16/2012 03:52 PM
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Re: Right on cue a 6.8 earthquake
I don't know but we here in SoCal have been having damn near 3.0's for the last few hours.
Quoting: Rochelle

SoCal...yikes. Do you own a boat or a raft?
Quoting: Wash

No sweets, headin for the hills if the water comes in. After being on this site I researched my area quite a bit and found out what I needed to do if water comes our way.
Quoting: Rochelle

You can get away from the masses before the streets are clogged?
Quoting: Wash

Ya our town isn't that big, we live about 2 miles from the base of the hill. Also about 20 miles inland.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1010412
United States
11/16/2012 03:59 PM
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Re: Right on cue a 6.8 earthquake
So Russia receives a EQ right after Putin announces he will support Egypt in their fight against Israel....hmmmm
Nika

User ID: 27839109
United States
11/16/2012 04:01 PM
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Re: Right on cue a 6.8 earthquake
Would someone mind posting a link to this Patrick guy, pretty please.
THis is the first time hearing about him.
:infnty:

:ihavgsbmp:
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1486213
United States
11/16/2012 04:05 PM
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Re: Right on cue a 6.8 earthquake
Wow - going to be quite a weekend

User ID: 25203105
United States
11/16/2012 04:10 PM
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Re: Right on cue a 6.8 earthquake
Geryl is correct and 12/21/12 is gonna be epic for some continent. THE quake of all quakes!
Quoting: Anonymous Coward 17084496

If the 'pole shift' is going to happen on the 21st, the earthquake would be world wide and I'm sure that would be much more than a 10+ quake...

JMHO...

:watchergirl:
Custodian
User ID: 26902575
United Kingdom
11/16/2012 04:18 PM
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Re: Right on cue a 6.8 earthquake
So Russia receives a EQ right after Putin announces he will support Egypt in their fight against Israel....hmmmm
Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1010412

Reality420
User ID: 26486855
United States
11/16/2012 04:22 PM
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Re: Right on cue a 6.8 earthquake
November 7-8: Possible 7 plus (HIT -- Guatemala)
November 13-14: 6.5 plus (HIT - Alaska)
November 15-16: 6.5 plus (HIT - Kuril Islands)
November 20: 6 plus
November 22-23 6.5 plus
November 28: 7
December 4-5: 7 plus
December 11: 7 plus
December 17-18: 8 plus
December 21: 10 PLUS

None of these dates were edited, been like this all the time

A broken watch isn't right thrice on the day, is it?
Quoting: Anonymous Coward 5680160

Thanks for the list.
I looked back on GLP and couldn't find any record of him making earlier predictions except for posts claiming hits after the fact.

Do you have a site with his predictions listed so we can copy them to preclude alteration?

BTW - there was no hit for November 13-14. The Alaska quake came on the 12th.
How much leeway are you going to give him, or how much has he given himself on mag and timing?

In the past 10 years a Mag. 6+ quake had a 50/50 chance of happening every 36 hours. Not too hard to be right on mag 6+.
Odds for a mag 6+:
Window = 1 day: 37%
Window = 36hrs: 50%
Window = 2 days: 60.3%
Window = 3 days: 75%
Not very impressive.

R.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 27248933
United Kingdom
11/16/2012 05:57 PM
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Re: Right on cue a 6.8 earthquake

Severo Kuril'sk Russia. Are larger on the way?
Quoting: hapless moran

ive been waiting for another biggy in japan i believe is around the corner.(hope im wrong).
Goofy for God
For by Him All Things Were Created

User ID: 16845676
United States
11/16/2012 06:29 PM

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Re: Right on cue a 6.8 earthquake
Sun , war, eq yep almost time
Luke 18:8I tell you that he will avenge them speedily. Nevertheless when the Son of man cometh, shall he find faith on the earth?
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 26130402
United States
11/16/2012 06:52 PM
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Re: Right on cue a 6.8 earthquake
Goofy for God
For by Him All Things Were Created

User ID: 16845676
United States
11/16/2012 08:06 PM

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Re: Right on cue a 6.8 earthquake

Yellowstone
Luke 18:8I tell you that he will avenge them speedily. Nevertheless when the Son of man cometh, shall he find faith on the earth?
MatrixLNIN11

User ID: 20347511
United States
11/20/2012 02:39 AM

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Re: Right on cue a 6.8 earthquake

Severo Kuril'sk Russia. Are larger on the way?
Quoting: hapless moran

Are you aware that there are on the average ~180 quakes measuring 6-6.9 every year? That means one every couple of days. Then there are those in the 7-9+ range as well.

this is nothing significant

you live on a relatively thin crust that is floating around a molten ball of metal
Quoting: Anonymous Coward 12441154

According to Wikipedia, 100-150 6.0-6.9 earthquakes happen each year. (Info follows in italics.) Any mathematicians on line want to calculate what the odds are for Geryl's accuracy to date, and what the odds will be that he will be right November 20 +/- one day? (I don't know enough to argue that he IS right, but I would guess that he is beating the odds. And, yes, I have always held with the conventional and scientific opinion that earthquakes CANNOT be predicted, but . . . )

6.0–6.9 Strong VI to X Can be damaging/destructive in populated areas. Damage to many to all buildings; poorly designed structures incur moderate to severe damage. Earthquake-resistant structures survive with slight to moderate damage. Most likely felt hundreds of miles/kilometers from the epicenter. Can be damaging further from the epicenter; up to tens of miles/kilometers away. Death toll between none and 25,000. 100 to 150 per year
Quoting: Anonymous Coward 9253046

Let's calculate that one...As far as i know for sure, Patrick hit at least 3 of the last 4 Major 7+ quakes...there are about 15 total in a year, which means 1,25 a month. To predict one correctly with a 1-day span gives a chance of 4,1%. For a 2-day span goes to 8.2%. So, assuming 2 of each groups for the ones he hit, total possibility of 3 consequitive 7+ mag quakes is 0,02%.

About the 6+ quakes he hit: I'm assuming the lowest number that we can verify he hit here, are about 4. There are about 125 6+ quakes a year, which means around 34% chance for one to occur in one day. Therefore, hiting 4 of them consequitively, has a chance of happening around 1,33%.

Now if we multiply both the 7+ and 6+ chance, we get an abysmal chance of 0,000266% of happening!

That doesn't mean of course that Geryl is 100% right about his whole theory, but that his eq-theory and the way he predicts them actually works!

Quoting: Anonymous Coward 27300175

So now compare the quakes that have connected to not only my warnings, but also the LEY LINE factor, and I don't think there's enough space in this post to calculate the odds.
MatrixLNIN11

User ID: 20347511
United States
11/20/2012 02:40 AM

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Re: Right on cue a 6.8 earthquake
Kudos to Matrix...
Quoting: hapless moran

TY hm

you ready for next week? ;)
Deej

User ID: 27782088
United States
11/20/2012 02:42 AM
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Re: Right on cue a 6.8 earthquake
well...

Last Edited by Deej on 11/20/2012 02:53 AM
No matter what happens... just say "Thank You." - D W Fierce
hapless moran (OP)

User ID: 28116391
United States
11/20/2012 09:45 AM
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Re: Right on cue a 6.8 earthquake
Kudos to Matrix...
Quoting: hapless moran

TY hm

you ready for next week? ;)
Quoting: MatrixLNIN11

We'll see what happens.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 6406905
11/20/2012 09:50 AM
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Re: Right on cue a 6.8 earthquake
Kudos to Matrix...
Quoting: hapless moran

TY hm

you ready for next week? ;)
Quoting: MatrixLNIN11

We'll see what happens.
Quoting: hapless moran

I believe P. Geryl has predicted an M6+ for today and an M6.5+ for 22/23rd.
hapless moran (OP)

User ID: 28116391
United States
11/20/2012 09:56 AM
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Re: Right on cue a 6.8 earthquake
Kudos to Matrix...
Quoting: hapless moran

TY hm

you ready for next week? ;)
Quoting: MatrixLNIN11

We'll see what happens.
Quoting: hapless moran

I believe P. Geryl has predicted an M6+ for today and an M6.5+ for 22/23rd.
Quoting: Wash

In Tuscaloosa at the moment. I noticed yesterday on the drive down what looked like earthquake clouds in Northern Alabama and there was a 2.6 later in the day in the general vicinity of the clouds. Very interesting.