Right on cue a 6.8 earthquake

According to Wikipedia, 100-150 6.0-6.9 earthquakes happen each year. (Info follows in italics.) Any mathematicians on line want to calculate what the odds are for Geryl's accuracy to date, and what the odds will be that he will be right November 20 +/- one day? (I don't know enough to argue that he IS right, but I would guess that he is beating the odds. And, yes, I have always held with the conventional and scientific opinion that earthquakes CANNOT be predicted, but . . . )

6.0–6.9 Strong VI to X Can be damaging/destructive in populated areas. Damage to many to all buildings; poorly designed structures incur moderate to severe damage. Earthquake-resistant structures survive with slight to moderate damage. Most likely felt hundreds of miles/kilometers from the epicenter. Can be damaging further from the epicenter; up to tens of miles/kilometers away. Death toll between none and 25,000. 100 to 150 per year

Let's calculate that one...As far as i know for sure, Patrick hit at least 3 of the last 4 Major 7+ quakes...there are about 15 total in a year, which means 1,25 a month. To predict one correctly with a 1-day span gives a chance of 4,1%. For a 2-day span goes to 8.2%. So, assuming 2 of each groups for the ones he hit, total possibility of 3 consequitive 7+ mag quakes is 0,02%.

About the 6+ quakes he hit: I'm assuming the lowest number that we can verify he hit here, are about 4. There are about 125 6+ quakes a year, which means around 34% chance for one to occur in one day. Therefore, hiting 4 of them consequitively, has a chance of happening around 1,33%.

Now if we multiply both the 7+ and 6+ chance, we get an abysmal chance of 0,000266% of happening!

That doesn't mean of course that Geryl is 100% right about his whole theory, but that his eq-theory and the way he predicts them actually works!

Let's calculate that one...As far as i know for sure, Patrick hit at least 3 of the last 4 Major 7+ quakes...there are about 15 total in a year, which means 1,25 a month. To predict one correctly with a 1-day span gives a chance of 4,1%. For a 2-day span goes to 8.2%. So, assuming 2 of each groups for the ones he hit, total possibility of 3 consequitive 7+ mag quakes is 0,02%.

About the 6+ quakes he hit: I'm assuming the lowest number that we can verify he hit here, are about 4. There are about 125 6+ quakes a year, which means around 34% chance for one to occur in one day. Therefore, hiting 4 of them consequitively, has a chance of happening around 1,33%.

Now if we multiply both the 7+ and 6+ chance, we get an abysmal chance of 0,000266% of happening!

That doesn't mean of course that Geryl is 100% right about his whole theory, but that his eq-theory and the way he predicts them actually works!

Buy this man some Ouzo!

So the next time one of these fakers "predicts" a coming quake make them provide coordinates too. They NEVER will.

I don't know but we here in SoCal have been having damn near 3.0's for the last few hours.

SoCal...yikes. Do you own a boat or a raft?

No sweets, headin for the hills if the water comes in. After being on this site I researched my area quite a bit and found out what I needed to do if water comes our way.

You can get away from the masses before the streets are clogged?

Geryl is correct and 12/21/12 is gonna be epic for some continent. THE quake of all quakes!

So Russia receives a EQ right after Putin announces he will support Egypt in their fight against Israel....hmmmm

November 7-8: Possible 7 plus (HIT -- Guatemala)
November 13-14: 6.5 plus (HIT - Alaska)
November 15-16: 6.5 plus (HIT - Kuril Islands)
November 20: 6 plus
November 22-23 6.5 plus
November 28: 7
December 4-5: 7 plus
December 11: 7 plus
December 17-18: 8 plus
December 21: 10 PLUS

None of these dates were edited, been like this all the time

A broken watch isn't right thrice on the day, is it?

[link to earthquake.usgs.gov]

Severo Kuril'sk Russia. Are larger on the way?

Let's calculate that one...As far as i know for sure, Patrick hit at least 3 of the last 4 Major 7+ quakes...there are about 15 total in a year, which means 1,25 a month. To predict one correctly with a 1-day span gives a chance of 4,1%. For a 2-day span goes to 8.2%. So, assuming 2 of each groups for the ones he hit, total possibility of 3 consequitive 7+ mag quakes is 0,02%.

About the 6+ quakes he hit: I'm assuming the lowest number that we can verify he hit here, are about 4. There are about 125 6+ quakes a year, which means around 34% chance for one to occur in one day. Therefore, hiting 4 of them consequitively, has a chance of happening around 1,33%.

Now if we multiply both the 7+ and 6+ chance, we get an abysmal chance of 0,000266% of happening!

That doesn't mean of course that Geryl is 100% right about his whole theory, but that his eq-theory and the way he predicts them actually works!

Kudos to Matrix...

TY hm

you ready for next week? ;)

We'll see what happens.

I believe P. Geryl has predicted an M6+ for today and an M6.5+ for 22/23rd.