The Israeli mission into GAZA that is more likely than not coming.

IMO this is going to be...

To disarm and remove HAMAS from command and control.

That is going to be a pretty huge campaign...not a mere assualt...but a campaign.

Now....the feeling I am getting is that Hezbollah is not going to engage. Nasrallah has been issuing statements like the Arab league needs to band together and use it's Oil Muscle...he is also making statements that Hamas in Gaza using their rockets is a "Significant development"....alluding that they are doing OK on their own. This a departure from his usual "Rivers run red with zionist blood!" and that sort of firey rhetoric...

Over the last years it seems that Hezbollah is enjoying their newly gained political clout in Lebanon...which they more or less own and operate now. Being in charge of a country is a big step up for them and IMO they do not want to jepordize that.

Maybe Israel told them you mind your own business or we will go apeshit on your ass and bomb you into oblivion...who knows, but I don't see Israeli forces massing on the Lebonese border so it seems to me that some sort of stand down agreement has been struck there...

Hezbollah is also closely tied to Syria and Assad...Assad has enough on his plate to deal with as it is...so there could be an ultimatum there that if Hezbollah does engage?...it will be taken as if Syria and Hezbollah are considered as one and both will brought down...with a threat of USA-NATO involvement...

For whatever reasons...it seems to me that Hezbollah isn't itching to get involved and is more content to talk Arab "sanctions"...

So Egypt...the Sinai has a good infestment of radicals going on. Morsi bombed a few hinself...my guess there was that he was told by Israel..."Either you do it?...or we will, but it's going to happen." Morsi could not allow Israel to blast even the most radical elements in Egyption territory, he'd look like a bitch and his own people would go berserk. He also wants to sit at the big boy international table...so bombing a few "AQ affiliates" would earn some cred with the "international community"...see?...we aren't as radical as some want people to think, we blew up a few "terrorists" too.

Morsi has a fine tight rope to walk with his own Muslim brothers and the international community...My assesment there is that he is more likely to fall back on his "too new" position and while he'll show some support, more than Mubarack would have, he won't engage in any real sense and will probably do some aiding and abetting on a small scale with appeasing his own people in mind and more or less keep walking that tight rope.

I also don't see Iran engaging outright either...nor Syria...because I'm sure they are thinking that they are in a "Give us an excuse" position...and if they do give anyone an excuse?...the USA/West might very well take the opportunity to play wipe up/out and mop up several problems in the arena.

So with all that said...it pretty much leaves Israel and Hamas head to head to go at it toe to toe. Which I believe may very well happen. Hamas will get some level of support, maybe some weapons back doored in, the "outcry" is a given, but I don't see any other countries stepping into it outright as things stand now.

Israel has Hamas out gunned in a big way...it will only be a matter of how bloody and how long it will take to accomplish the mission if they decide the mission is to eradicate Hamas and I believe they have. They have gone in before and gave them a beat down, and they came back...they won't go in and not make it final this time.

GAZA may be turned over to some sort of Arab cohilition temporarlily which will more likely than not feature Egypt playing a part in a very big way...GAZA will in any case be turned over to some more moderate control in which Egypt will be pressed into playing a big part with in some fashion.

I think we going to see a pretty big move this time...and I don't see how Israel has much of a choice.
The chance of it spiraling out of control and other countries becoming involved real quick is always there, but as long as Israel remains as meticulous as possible, there's just as much as chance that the Arabs will chalk up Hamas as a loss and it will stay contained as there is that any other countries will get involved.

It won't be pretty in any case, it also could very well last for a month and it's going to be a screaming and bloody mess...

It's going to be a very dangerous time during which a lot of very bad scenerios have a far greater chance of becoming reality...for everyone...

Expect at minimum oil prices to take off and up...be very aware of the hair trigger aspect that a "Spark event" can set off powder keg that could very well drag several major countries into a major war that no sane person wants to see happen.

I see the stage set this time for Israel to vanquish Hamas once and for all as any sort of viable control group in GAZA and they are going to take the opportunity to do it...if they do?...

we can only hope that is as far as it goes...

Last Edited by SHR on 11/16/2012 05:19 PM