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FAST-GROWING SUNSPOT AR1619 - (updated) 30% chance of X-Class flares!

 
Carshy McCarsh
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11/21/2012 04:32 PM
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FAST-GROWING SUNSPOT AR1619 - (updated) 30% chance of X-Class flares!
Only a few days ago, sunspot AR1618 was almost invisible. Now it is a behemoth more than 10 times wider than Earth. A movie from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory shows the sunspot's development on Nov. 20-21:

[link to spaceweather.com]

As the sunspot evolves, so does its intense magnetic field--and this means strong flares are in the offing. Fast-changing magnetic fields on the sun have a tendency to reconnect and erupt. NOAA forecasters estimate a 70% chance of M-class flares and a 15% chance of X-flares during the next 24 hours. Because of the sunspot's nearly central location on the solar disk, any eruptions will likely be Earth-directed.

[link to spaceweather.com]

ahhh

Updates:
Thread: SUNSPOT AR1618--UPDATE: Sunspot AR1618 has experienced some decay during the past 24 hours, but it is still potent.

Last Edited by Carshy McCarsh on 11/23/2012 12:34 PM
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Carshy McCarsh (OP)

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11/21/2012 04:35 PM
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Re: FAST-GROWING SUNSPOT AR1619 - (updated) 30% chance of X-Class flares!
suntard
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Carshy McCarsh (OP)

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11/21/2012 04:35 PM
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Re: FAST-GROWING SUNSPOT AR1619 - (updated) 30% chance of X-Class flares!
sun
dead3 dead3
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Debauchery

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11/21/2012 04:38 PM
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Re: FAST-GROWING SUNSPOT AR1619 - (updated) 30% chance of X-Class flares!
I'm completely ignorant when it comes to this particular subject.

What does it all really mean?
And the LORD spake, saying, "First shalt thou take out the Holy Pin, then shalt thou count to three, no more, no less. Three shall be the number thou shalt count, and the number of the counting shall be three. Four shalt thou not count, neither count thou two, excepting that thou then proceed to three. Five is right out. Once the number three, being the third number, be reached, then lobbest thou thy Holy Hand Grenade of Antioch towards thy foe, who being naughty in My sight, shall snuff it." Amen.
Carshy McCarsh (OP)

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11/21/2012 05:06 PM
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Re: FAST-GROWING SUNSPOT AR1619 - (updated) 30% chance of X-Class flares!
I'm completely ignorant when it comes to this particular subject.

What does it all really mean?
 Quoting: Debauchery


M-Class might, maybe, mess with a few satellites.
X-class WILL get you auroras and mess with cell phones.
Big X-Class is what the Carrington Event was. It can transport you back to the 18th century in a moment.
Tell me what this tastes like...
sunspotkiller

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11/21/2012 05:07 PM

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Re: FAST-GROWING SUNSPOT AR1619 - (updated) 30% chance of X-Class flares!
I'm completely ignorant when it comes to this particular subject.

What does it all really mean?
 Quoting: Debauchery


M-Class might, maybe, mess with a few satellites.
X-class WILL get you auroras and mess with cell phones.
Big X-Class is what the Carrington Event was. It can transport you back to the 18th century in a moment.
 Quoting: Carshy McCarsh


I've got my generators ready and on standby
sunspotkiller

When you judge someone else, It doesn't define who they are, It defines who you are. Be love!

“Kind words do not cost much. Yet they accomplish much.”
Debauchery

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11/21/2012 05:09 PM
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Re: FAST-GROWING SUNSPOT AR1619 - (updated) 30% chance of X-Class flares!
I'm completely ignorant when it comes to this particular subject.

What does it all really mean?
 Quoting: Debauchery


M-Class might, maybe, mess with a few satellites.
X-class WILL get you auroras and mess with cell phones.
Big X-Class is what the Carrington Event was. It can transport you back to the 18th century in a moment.
 Quoting: Carshy McCarsh


Might be interesting, even fun.

If only I had a horse.

Last Edited by Debauchery on 11/21/2012 05:10 PM
And the LORD spake, saying, "First shalt thou take out the Holy Pin, then shalt thou count to three, no more, no less. Three shall be the number thou shalt count, and the number of the counting shall be three. Four shalt thou not count, neither count thou two, excepting that thou then proceed to three. Five is right out. Once the number three, being the third number, be reached, then lobbest thou thy Holy Hand Grenade of Antioch towards thy foe, who being naughty in My sight, shall snuff it." Amen.
Carshy McCarsh (OP)

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11/21/2012 05:11 PM
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Re: FAST-GROWING SUNSPOT AR1619 - (updated) 30% chance of X-Class flares!
I'm completely ignorant when it comes to this particular subject.

What does it all really mean?
 Quoting: Debauchery


M-Class might, maybe, mess with a few satellites.
X-class WILL get you auroras and mess with cell phones.
Big X-Class is what the Carrington Event was. It can transport you back to the 18th century in a moment.
 Quoting: Carshy McCarsh


I've got my generators ready and on standby
 Quoting: sunspotkiller


Well unplug any cords from them. Wire acts as an antenna for EMPs.

And Farraday shield your electronics. The most cost-efficient way I found is to use an old-fashion metal garbage can.
Tell me what this tastes like...
Carshy McCarsh (OP)

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11/21/2012 05:12 PM
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Re: FAST-GROWING SUNSPOT AR1619 - (updated) 30% chance of X-Class flares!
I'm completely ignorant when it comes to this particular subject.

What does it all really mean?
 Quoting: Debauchery


M-Class might, maybe, mess with a few satellites.
X-class WILL get you auroras and mess with cell phones.
Big X-Class is what the Carrington Event was. It can transport you back to the 18th century in a moment.
 Quoting: Carshy McCarsh


Might be interesting, even fun.

If only I had a horse.
 Quoting: Debauchery


Or one of those penny-farthing bikes.
Old-timey...
Tell me what this tastes like...
Anonymous Coward
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11/21/2012 05:15 PM
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Re: FAST-GROWING SUNSPOT AR1619 - (updated) 30% chance of X-Class flares!
15% of an X, so in reality it's a 50% chance :P

Should be interesting, thanks for the update. I'll be keeping an eye on space weather for sure
Anonymous Coward
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11/21/2012 05:17 PM
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Re: FAST-GROWING SUNSPOT AR1619 - (updated) 30% chance of X-Class flares!
Just checked the 3 day forecast...30% chance everyday for an X. Haven't seen it that high for quite some time.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Anonymous Coward
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11/21/2012 05:18 PM
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Re: FAST-GROWING SUNSPOT AR1619 - (updated) 30% chance of X-Class flares!
I'm completely ignorant when it comes to this particular subject.

What does it all really mean?
 Quoting: Debauchery


M-Class might, maybe, mess with a few satellites.
X-class WILL get you auroras and mess with cell phones.
Big X-Class is what the Carrington Event was. It can transport you back to the 18th century in a moment.
 Quoting: Carshy McCarsh


nothing we haven't seen yet, in fact this solar max is a lot weaker than last one so it's safe to say we need to wait another 13 years for any potential sun doom

5a5a5a
Anonymous Coward
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11/21/2012 05:21 PM
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Re: FAST-GROWING SUNSPOT AR1619 - (updated) 30% chance of X-Class flares!
I'm completely ignorant when it comes to this particular subject.

What does it all really mean?
 Quoting: Debauchery


M-Class might, maybe, mess with a few satellites.
X-class WILL get you auroras and mess with cell phones.
Big X-Class is what the Carrington Event was. It can transport you back to the 18th century in a moment.
 Quoting: Carshy McCarsh


nothing we haven't seen yet, in fact this solar max is a lot weaker than last one so it's safe to say we need to wait another 13 years for any potential sun doom

5a5a5a
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 14443159


Where have you heard that? Just curious. That was the prediction initially, but I've heard since that it will be stronger than normal.
Carshy McCarsh (OP)

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11/21/2012 05:26 PM
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Re: FAST-GROWING SUNSPOT AR1619 - (updated) 30% chance of X-Class flares!
I'm completely ignorant when it comes to this particular subject.

What does it all really mean?
 Quoting: Debauchery


M-Class might, maybe, mess with a few satellites.
X-class WILL get you auroras and mess with cell phones.
Big X-Class is what the Carrington Event was. It can transport you back to the 18th century in a moment.
 Quoting: Carshy McCarsh


nothing we haven't seen yet, in fact this solar max is a lot weaker than last one so it's safe to say we need to wait another 13 years for any potential sun doom

 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 14443159


Fail. This latest cycle has been completely unpredictable, and several anomalous behaviours have been observed. No telling what the sun will do next.

Also, the rapid migration of Earth's magnetic poles is leaving us open for a massive CME intrusion from any Earth-facing flare.
Tell me what this tastes like...
black calx
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11/21/2012 05:27 PM

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Re: FAST-GROWING SUNSPOT AR1619 - (updated) 30% chance of X-Class flares!
Here's the latest from Dr. Strong.


[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]

Watch "The Money Masters" and read "The Creature From Jekyll Island" by G. Edward Griffin to unveil the true enemy.

"Live Free or Die" was not meant to be the motto of the Free Shit Army!

This Halloween AV is powered by Dace.
Carshy McCarsh (OP)

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11/21/2012 05:27 PM
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Re: FAST-GROWING SUNSPOT AR1619 - (updated) 30% chance of X-Class flares!
Just checked the 3 day forecast...30% chance everyday for an X. Haven't seen it that high for quite some time.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 13284416


sun
woohoo
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Carshy McCarsh (OP)

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11/21/2012 05:28 PM
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Re: FAST-GROWING SUNSPOT AR1619 - (updated) 30% chance of X-Class flares!
Here's the latest from Dr. Strong.


 Quoting: black calx


Nice, thanks!

cheers
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Yokohama

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11/21/2012 05:40 PM

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Re: FAST-GROWING SUNSPOT AR1619 - (updated) 30% chance of X-Class flares!
bump
Somebody Pin this , please !
hidingburnitahhh

Last Edited by McHammered on 11/21/2012 05:43 PM
Carshy McCarsh (OP)

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11/21/2012 06:17 PM
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Re: FAST-GROWING SUNSPOT AR1619 - (updated) 30% chance of X-Class flares!
bump
Somebody Pin this , please !
hidingburnitahhh
 Quoting: Yokohama


Thanks bro.

And lose the gawdamned Che avatar. Only tards use Che's image for anything but a urinal backdrop.
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Carshy McCarsh (OP)

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11/21/2012 07:46 PM
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Re: FAST-GROWING SUNSPOT AR1619 - (updated) 30% chance of X-Class flares!
Solar doom bump
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Anonymous Coward
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11/22/2012 07:21 AM
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Re: FAST-GROWING SUNSPOT AR1619 - (updated) 30% chance of X-Class flares!
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

pair of cmes coming already
Waterbug

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11/22/2012 07:38 AM

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Re: FAST-GROWING SUNSPOT AR1619 - (updated) 30% chance of X-Class flares!
flare
Carshy McCarsh (OP)

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11/22/2012 07:38 AM
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Re: FAST-GROWING SUNSPOT AR1619 - (updated) 30% chance of X-Class flares!
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

pair of cmes coming already
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 28266884


Thx for the pin Mods! Hopefully we won't catch an EMP before the pin expires...

hiding
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Carshy McCarsh (OP)

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11/22/2012 07:38 AM
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Re: FAST-GROWING SUNSPOT AR1619 - (updated) 30% chance of X-Class flares!
flare
 Quoting: Waterbug


cruise
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smileyguy

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11/22/2012 07:39 AM
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Re: FAST-GROWING SUNSPOT AR1619 - (updated) 30% chance of X-Class flares!
[link to www.solarham.net]
Carshy McCarsh (OP)

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11/22/2012 07:41 AM
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Re: FAST-GROWING SUNSPOT AR1619 - (updated) 30% chance of X-Class flares!
 Quoting: smileyguy


Excellent resource, thanks!

hf

WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G2 Predicted
Issue Time: 2012 Nov 21 2207 UTC
Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Nov 22: None (Below G1) Nov 23: G2 (Moderate) Nov 24: G1 (Minor)

Last Edited by Carshy McCarsh on 11/22/2012 07:49 AM
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smileyguy

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11/22/2012 07:46 AM
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Re: FAST-GROWING SUNSPOT AR1619 - (updated) 30% chance of X-Class flares!
I love the sun and it's power.

[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]
Carshy McCarsh (OP)

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11/22/2012 07:52 AM
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Re: FAST-GROWING SUNSPOT AR1619 - (updated) 30% chance of X-Class flares!
I love the sun and it's power.

[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]
 Quoting: smileyguy


Another outstanding resource, thanks man!
cheers
Tell me what this tastes like...
Anonymous Coward
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11/22/2012 07:56 AM
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Re: FAST-GROWING SUNSPOT AR1619 - (updated) 30% chance of X-Class flares!
but then no GLP


eek
smileyguy

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11/22/2012 07:56 AM
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Re: FAST-GROWING SUNSPOT AR1619 - (updated) 30% chance of X-Class flares!
No problem - I have plenty. cool2

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]

Here's one for the Aurora Sky Station so you can see the effects as they come in.

[link to www.auroraskystation.com]
Carshy McCarsh (OP)

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11/22/2012 07:58 AM
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Re: FAST-GROWING SUNSPOT AR1619 - (updated) 30% chance of X-Class flares!
but then no GLP


eek
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 25749597


eek x 1,000,000

ahhh
Tell me what this tastes like...

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