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FAST-GROWING SUNSPOT AR1619 - (updated) 30% chance of X-Class flares!

 
Carshy McCarsh (OP)

User ID: 17140966
United States
11/22/2012 07:59 AM
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Re: FAST-GROWING SUNSPOT AR1619 - (updated) 30% chance of X-Class flares!
No problem - I have plenty. cool2

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]

Here's one for the Aurora Sky Station so you can see the effects as they come in.

[link to www.auroraskystation.com]
 Quoting: smileyguy


Nice!
yes
Tell me what this tastes like...
McSquire

User ID: 28137261
United Kingdom
11/22/2012 08:27 AM
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Re: FAST-GROWING SUNSPOT AR1619 - (updated) 30% chance of X-Class flares!
I'm completely ignorant when it comes to this particular subject.

What does it all really mean?
 Quoting: Debauchery


M-Class might, maybe, mess with a few satellites.
X-class WILL get you auroras and mess with cell phones.
Big X-Class is what the Carrington Event was. It can transport you back to the 18th century in a moment.
 Quoting: Carshy McCarsh


I've got my generators ready and on standby
 Quoting: sunspotkiller


Well unplug any cords from them. Wire acts as an antenna for EMPs.

And Farraday shield your electronics. The most cost-efficient way I found is to use an old-fashion metal garbage can.
 Quoting: Carshy McCarsh


Is your microwave a small Farraday cage??
Goofy for God
Do everything with love

User ID: 16845676
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11/22/2012 08:34 AM

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Re: FAST-GROWING SUNSPOT AR1619 - (updated) 30% chance of X-Class flares!
hidingI fear we are headed for some sun doom soon
Proverbs 15:1
A soft answer turns away wrath, But a harsh word stirs up anger.
Luisport

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11/22/2012 08:40 AM

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Re: FAST-GROWING SUNSPOT AR1619 - (updated) 30% chance of X-Class flares!
hidingI fear we are headed for some sun doom soon
 Quoting: Goofy for God


ohyeah
AlcoholicRunner
I abduct humans and drink at the same time.

User ID: 23182389
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11/22/2012 08:46 AM

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Re: FAST-GROWING SUNSPOT AR1619 - (updated) 30% chance of X-Class flares!
I'm completely ignorant when it comes to this particular subject.

What does it all really mean?
 Quoting: Debauchery


M-Class might, maybe, mess with a few satellites.
X-class WILL get you auroras and mess with cell phones.
Big X-Class is what the Carrington Event was. It can transport you back to the 18th century in a moment.
 Quoting: Carshy McCarsh


Carrington Event happened during quiet period of time like we are seeing right now...

hiding
AlcoholicRunner
I abduct humans and drink at the same time.

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11/22/2012 08:48 AM

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Re: FAST-GROWING SUNSPOT AR1619 - (updated) 30% chance of X-Class flares!
hidingI fear we are headed for some sun doom soon
 Quoting: Goofy for God


Trying reading Forgotten Civilization by Robert Schoch...

Here's a taste of it - [link to www.robertschoch.com]

What if a much more powerful plasma event than carrington event came to Earth 13,000 years ago...
Double O Zero

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11/22/2012 08:54 AM
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Re: FAST-GROWING SUNSPOT AR1619 - (updated) 30% chance of X-Class flares!
I've heard a lot about a massive solar flare in terms of its impact on electronics, but what would it do to people and other living things directly? Can anyone tell me?

Also, assuming an X class flare is heading here, how much time would we have from knowing it is coming to act?
Second best
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11/22/2012 09:08 AM
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Re: FAST-GROWING SUNSPOT AR1619 - (updated) 30% chance of X-Class flares!
Please sun take put us all out of our misery!!
DanG
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11/22/2012 09:09 AM
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Re: FAST-GROWING SUNSPOT AR1619 - (updated) 30% chance of X-Class flares!
yawn
Nibibu Obungo

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11/22/2012 09:11 AM
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Re: FAST-GROWING SUNSPOT AR1619 - (updated) 30% chance of X-Class flares!
Wow, this is quite something. If this thing produces an X-class flare or a big M-class flare, earth directed it might trigger earthquakes...and guess what...since a CME takes about 1-2 days to arrive at earth it might just be in the window predicted by Patrick Geryl for an 8+ between November 25-28.

Also, if this 8+ happens it means that basically his predictions are right (he has been spot on with his last quake predictions already, but since an 8+ isn't an everyday event it would be the final proove to me). In consequence this would mean that his final prediction would also be highly likely come true - a solare flare to dwarf the Carrington event on or before Dec 21that would basically take out all our electronics and a 10+ quake on the 21st to top things off nicely...merry Christmas yall...hope you all got your supplies and adult diapers ready...

violin
Gone bezerkin...
Carshy McCarsh (OP)

User ID: 17140966
United States
11/22/2012 09:22 AM
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Re: FAST-GROWING SUNSPOT AR1619 - (updated) 30% chance of X-Class flares!
hidingI fear we are headed for some sun doom soon
 Quoting: Goofy for God


ohyeah
 Quoting: Luisport


yes
Tell me what this tastes like...
Carshy McCarsh (OP)

User ID: 17140966
United States
11/22/2012 09:23 AM
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Re: FAST-GROWING SUNSPOT AR1619 - (updated) 30% chance of X-Class flares!
Wow, this is quite something. If this thing produces an X-class flare or a big M-class flare, earth directed it might trigger earthquakes...and guess what...since a CME takes about 1-2 days to arrive at earth it might just be in the window predicted by Patrick Geryl for an 8+ between November 25-28.

Also, if this 8+ happens it means that basically his predictions are right (he has been spot on with his last quake predictions already, but since an 8+ isn't an everyday event it would be the final proove to me). In consequence this would mean that his final prediction would also be highly likely come true - a solare flare to dwarf the Carrington event on or before Dec 21that would basically take out all our electronics and a 10+ quake on the 21st to top things off nicely...merry Christmas yall...hope you all got your supplies and adult diapers ready...

violin
 Quoting: Nibibu Obungo


Yeah dude, I'm thinking EXACTLY the same thing.
Almost time to push it:

panicsex
Tell me what this tastes like...
Nibibu Obungo

User ID: 19173798
Germany
11/22/2012 09:25 AM
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Re: FAST-GROWING SUNSPOT AR1619 - (updated) 30% chance of X-Class flares!
Wow, this is quite something. If this thing produces an X-class flare or a big M-class flare, earth directed it might trigger earthquakes...and guess what...since a CME takes about 1-2 days to arrive at earth it might just be in the window predicted by Patrick Geryl for an 8+ between November 25-28.

Also, if this 8+ happens it means that basically his predictions are right (he has been spot on with his last quake predictions already, but since an 8+ isn't an everyday event it would be the final proove to me). In consequence this would mean that his final prediction would also be highly likely come true - a solare flare to dwarf the Carrington event on or before Dec 21that would basically take out all our electronics and a 10+ quake on the 21st to top things off nicely...merry Christmas yall...hope you all got your supplies and adult diapers ready...

violin
 Quoting: Nibibu Obungo


Yeah dude, I'm thinking EXACTLY the same thing.
Almost time to push it:

panicsex
 Quoting: Carshy McCarsh


bobbang
Gone bezerkin...
Carshy McCarsh (OP)

User ID: 17140966
United States
11/22/2012 09:25 AM
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Re: FAST-GROWING SUNSPOT AR1619 - (updated) 30% chance of X-Class flares!
Please sun take put us all out of our misery!!
 Quoting: Second best 28115524


Or at least sterilize the surface of Canada!
Tell me what this tastes like...
SteamrolledGobias

User ID: 15716609
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11/22/2012 09:32 AM

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Re: FAST-GROWING SUNSPOT AR1619 - (updated) 30% chance of X-Class flares!
I'm completely ignorant when it comes to this particular subject.

What does it all really mean?
 Quoting: Debauchery


M-Class might, maybe, mess with a few satellites.
X-class WILL get you auroras and mess with cell phones.
Big X-Class is what the Carrington Event was. It can transport you back to the 18th century in a moment.
 Quoting: Carshy McCarsh


I've got my generators ready and on standby
 Quoting: sunspotkiller


Well unplug any cords from them. Wire acts as an antenna for EMPs.

And Farraday shield your electronics. The most cost-efficient way I found is to use an old-fashion metal garbage can.
 Quoting: Carshy McCarsh


Is there basically 100% chance of HDDs being wiped out from such a blast out of the sun? I am very unfamiliar with farraday cages or how these would protect from radiation... but I do have a lot of data worth keeping safe.

why wouldnt HDDS stored in boxes underneath by bed or in the closet be safe from the magnetism?
Anonymous Coward
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11/22/2012 09:33 AM
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Re: FAST-GROWING SUNSPOT AR1619 - (updated) 30% chance of X-Class flares!
Remember folks, Carrington Event wasn't a single event. It was a series of smaller flares/cme's followed by a bigger event. The smaller flares effectively cleared the way for full exposure to the following event.

With what we already have coming our way (3-4 smaller events) any sizeable flares/cme's are gonna be interesting.
Carshy McCarsh (OP)

User ID: 17140966
United States
11/22/2012 09:40 AM
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Re: FAST-GROWING SUNSPOT AR1619 - (updated) 30% chance of X-Class flares!
...


M-Class might, maybe, mess with a few satellites.
X-class WILL get you auroras and mess with cell phones.
Big X-Class is what the Carrington Event was. It can transport you back to the 18th century in a moment.
 Quoting: Carshy McCarsh


I've got my generators ready and on standby
 Quoting: sunspotkiller


Well unplug any cords from them. Wire acts as an antenna for EMPs.

And Farraday shield your electronics. The most cost-efficient way I found is to use an old-fashion metal garbage can.
 Quoting: Carshy McCarsh


Is your microwave a small Farraday cage??
 Quoting: McSquire


Yes it is.
Tell me what this tastes like...
Carshy McCarsh (OP)

User ID: 17140966
United States
11/22/2012 09:46 AM
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Re: FAST-GROWING SUNSPOT AR1619 - (updated) 30% chance of X-Class flares!
I'm completely ignorant when it comes to this particular subject.

What does it all really mean?
 Quoting: Debauchery


M-Class might, maybe, mess with a few satellites.
X-class WILL get you auroras and mess with cell phones.
Big X-Class is what the Carrington Event was. It can transport you back to the 18th century in a moment.
 Quoting: Carshy McCarsh


Carrington Event happened during quiet period of time like we are seeing right now...

hiding
 Quoting: AlcoholicRunner


bobbang
Tell me what this tastes like...
Carshy McCarsh (OP)

User ID: 17140966
United States
11/22/2012 09:49 AM
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Re: FAST-GROWING SUNSPOT AR1619 - (updated) 30% chance of X-Class flares!
Is there basically 100% chance of HDDs being wiped out from such a blast out of the sun?
 Quoting: SteamrolledGobias


No, but it could fry the control electronics. The magnetic material on the platter will remain intact.

why wouldnt HDDS stored in boxes underneath by bed or in the closet be safe from the magnetism?
 Quoting: SteamrolledGobias


It's not actually a magnetic effect at Earth-level. It's electrical, an electron storm. If your boxes are metal, and you electrically insulate the drives from the inside of the boxes, they'll work just fine.

lightening
Tell me what this tastes like...
Anonymous Coward
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United States
11/22/2012 09:52 AM
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Re: FAST-GROWING SUNSPOT AR1619 - (updated) 30% chance of X-Class flares!
I'm completely ignorant when it comes to this particular subject.

What does it all really mean?
 Quoting: Debauchery


M-Class might, maybe, mess with a few satellites.
X-class WILL get you auroras and mess with cell phones.
Big X-Class is what the Carrington Event was. It can transport you back to the 18th century in a moment.
 Quoting: Carshy McCarsh


Might be interesting, even fun.

If only I had a horse.
 Quoting: Debauchery


^ Giddyup!
octavium
User ID: 1578316
Netherlands
11/22/2012 10:02 AM
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Re: FAST-GROWING SUNSPOT AR1619 - (updated) 30% chance of X-Class flares!
Wake me up when it becomes a X28 flare.
till then....

walk on people, nothing to see...
Carshy McCarsh (OP)

User ID: 17140966
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11/22/2012 10:09 AM
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Re: FAST-GROWING SUNSPOT AR1619 - (updated) 30% chance of X-Class flares!
Wake me up when it becomes a X28 flare.
till then....

walk on people, nothing to see...
 Quoting: octavium 1578316


You have no knowledge of astrophysics or solar astronomy. That much is obvious. Would you like to prove how stupid you are in any other areas before you go away?

The size of the X-flare has nothing to do with the size or direction of any resulting CME.
Tell me what this tastes like...
Carol B.

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United States
11/22/2012 10:10 AM

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Re: FAST-GROWING SUNSPOT AR1619 - (updated) 30% chance of X-Class flares!
Only a few days ago, sunspot AR1618 was almost invisible. Now it is a behemoth more than 10 times wider than Earth. A movie from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory shows the sunspot's development on Nov. 20-21:

[link to spaceweather.com]

As the sunspot evolves, so does its intense magnetic field--and this means strong flares are in the offing. Fast-changing magnetic fields on the sun have a tendency to reconnect and erupt. NOAA forecasters estimate a 70% chance of M-class flares and a 15% chance of X-flares during the next 24 hours. Because of the sunspot's nearly central location on the solar disk, any eruptions will likely be Earth-directed.

[link to spaceweather.com]

ahhh
 Quoting: Carshy McCarsh


Well, crap.

5 stars, op for posting imortant information.
Carshy McCarsh (OP)

User ID: 17140966
United States
11/22/2012 10:10 AM
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Re: FAST-GROWING SUNSPOT AR1619 - (updated) 30% chance of X-Class flares!
I'm completely ignorant when it comes to this particular subject.

What does it all really mean?
 Quoting: Debauchery


M-Class might, maybe, mess with a few satellites.
X-class WILL get you auroras and mess with cell phones.
Big X-Class is what the Carrington Event was. It can transport you back to the 18th century in a moment.
 Quoting: Carshy McCarsh


Might be interesting, even fun.

If only I had a horse.
 Quoting: Debauchery


^ Giddyup!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 28167778


horse
Tell me what this tastes like...
Carshy McCarsh (OP)

User ID: 17140966
United States
11/22/2012 10:11 AM
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Re: FAST-GROWING SUNSPOT AR1619 - (updated) 30% chance of X-Class flares!
Only a few days ago, sunspot AR1618 was almost invisible. Now it is a behemoth more than 10 times wider than Earth. A movie from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory shows the sunspot's development on Nov. 20-21:

[link to spaceweather.com]

As the sunspot evolves, so does its intense magnetic field--and this means strong flares are in the offing. Fast-changing magnetic fields on the sun have a tendency to reconnect and erupt. NOAA forecasters estimate a 70% chance of M-class flares and a 15% chance of X-flares during the next 24 hours. Because of the sunspot's nearly central location on the solar disk, any eruptions will likely be Earth-directed.

[link to spaceweather.com]

ahhh
 Quoting: Carshy McCarsh


Well, crap.

5 stars, op for posting imortant information.
 Quoting: Carol B.


Thx doll!
hugs
Tell me what this tastes like...
TSWB21

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11/22/2012 10:13 AM
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Re: FAST-GROWING SUNSPOT AR1619 - (updated) 30% chance of X-Class flares!
Prediction :

Soon something will be earth directed .It will be the Largest thing ever to happen to mankind in these generations.

It will last for days , and wipe out the earth electrical grid.

chaos will follow.
infiniteivan
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Mexico
11/22/2012 10:14 AM
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Re: FAST-GROWING SUNSPOT AR1619 - (updated) 30% chance of X-Class flares!
Yes, 1619 looks like the most impressive sunspot in over a year. The sun has been pretty lame in 2012... plenty of explosions and phenomena but the sunspots have been puny and haven´t punched out much lately.

We are getting plenty of auroras from solar wind streams, this and that...

People are going to be very disappointed when 2013 rolls around and life goes on. Time to face reality... pay your bills and get ready for more of the same!

Happy Thanksgiving!
Carshy McCarsh (OP)

User ID: 17140966
United States
11/22/2012 10:15 AM
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Re: FAST-GROWING SUNSPOT AR1619 - (updated) 30% chance of X-Class flares!
Prediction :

Soon something will be earth directed .It will be the Largest thing ever to happen to mankind in these generations.

It will last for days , and wipe out the earth electrical grid.

chaos will follow.
 Quoting: TSWB21


That's not a prediction, that's a statistical fact. The only question is "when".
Tell me what this tastes like...
Carshy McCarsh (OP)

User ID: 17140966
United States
11/22/2012 10:16 AM
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Re: FAST-GROWING SUNSPOT AR1619 - (updated) 30% chance of X-Class flares!
Yes, 1619 looks like the most impressive sunspot in over a year. The sun has been pretty lame in 2012... plenty of explosions and phenomena but the sunspots have been puny and haven´t punched out much lately.

We are getting plenty of auroras from solar wind streams, this and that...

People are going to be very disappointed when 2013 rolls around and life goes on. Time to face reality... pay your bills and get ready for more of the same!

Happy Thanksgiving!
 Quoting: infiniteivan 28275669


Never!

Run up your credit cards, get drunk, and have sex without condoms!

:doom2:
Tell me what this tastes like...
Sleeping Giant
Country boy

User ID: 23781418
United States
11/22/2012 10:24 AM

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Re: FAST-GROWING SUNSPOT AR1619 - (updated) 30% chance of X-Class flares!
Yes, 1619 looks like the most impressive sunspot in over a year. The sun has been pretty lame in 2012... plenty of explosions and phenomena but the sunspots have been puny and haven´t punched out much lately.

We are getting plenty of auroras from solar wind streams, this and that...

People are going to be very disappointed when 2013 rolls around and life goes on. Time to face reality... pay your bills and get ready for more of the same!

Happy Thanksgiving!
 Quoting: infiniteivan 28275669


Never!

Run up your credit cards, get drunk, and have sex without condoms!

:doom2:
 Quoting: Carshy McCarsh


So, in other words, become Mike Tyson.
The hour has already come for you to wake up from your slumber, because our salvation is nearer now than when we first believed. Romans 13:11

And ye shall be hated of all men for my name's sake: but he that endureth to the end shall be saved. Matthew 10:22

Wake up, oh sleeper, and rise from the dead, and Christ will shine on you

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