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Human survivability with supply chain disruptions and its effect on populations

 
Anonymous Coward (OP)
User ID: 1110734
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11/29/2012 05:53 PM
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Re: Human survivability with supply chain disruptions and its effect on populations
The best way to bug in during Winter is underground

While it's not an option for all people, bugging in is usually the best means of surviving a disaster. If one is out where the danger is located versus the safety of a home stocked with supplies, then it's foolish. Since you can't bring many supplies with you when bugging out, then it's only an option if you can logically source supplies through your skill level. Since the outdoors are not a big grocery store of preserved food that's ripe for the taking, then most people won't have the proficiency to acquire the food. And truthfully there's not a lot to harvest in Winter.

Regardless of the season, the Earth is for the most part a fixed temperature underground. If one goes low enough, to get out of the cold, then the temperature will usually be 50-55 degrees F (10-13 degrees C).

Sourcing firewood is a major issue in Winter. Since that temperature is fixed, simply wearing more layers will be adequate. Burning produces heat and smoke, two things which give away your position.

Having water and supplies will always be a governing factor. Snow heated would require firewood to convert into water, but since the room temperature is fixed, then it will melt, it's just a matter of using calories to relocate the snow. It takes a lot of snow to melt to be equivalent to the necessary water requirements of 1 gallon a day per person and most likely 2-3 gallons with bathing and cleaning. It takes time to melt too.

Any water sources from natural areas needs to be boiled, and this will be the one flaw area. So using firewood or a heat source at odd times when most people would be sleeping, would be a better way of coping.

Most homes are located above ground, and not insulated enough to maintain a survivable temperature without artificially heating the dwelling.

Any place underground will not reveal things like artificial lighting within the room. This is a primary means of determining occupancy.

If you're in a building, and sewage is being piped away within it, then in a disaster if the sewers fail, then you'll have issues with it backing up. An underground building will definitely have these issues, so that means anticipating them and capping off the toilets and drains.

Security may always be an issue, but since underground buildings are less visible, they're less likely to be noticed. It was common for soldiers during the Civil War to build underground dwellings much like root cellars, and disperse them across the landscape.

Yes, if not low enough, then they would get very cold and would use temporary wood stoves. Realize this, in history wood stoves that were not properly constructed by Native Americans or soldiers, or whomever, would often get carbon monoxide poisoning and potentially die in their sleep.
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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11/29/2012 06:45 PM
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Re: Human survivability with supply chain disruptions and its effect on populations
Since exposure is the primary issue in Winter you need insulation

Here's a link to an article on the historic temperatures of homes. You'll see that we've significantly raised the temperature versus what our ancestors would have considered to be “normal and comfortable”.
[link to www.lowtechmagazine.com]

The simplest means of living with the cold is layers. The smartest way of dealing with cold is thermal underwear and a cap and gloves. Most heat loss is through the head. Today's thermal underwear is quite advanced compared to what you might be considering. It's often made to be very comfortable, uses thin layers of wool or silk, and isn't expensive. It's absolutely essential for Winter preparedness, for there are few other ways of reducing heat loss and maintaining core temperature.

If there's any chance of getting wet by falling into a water source or through the ice of one, then having wool is a better option since it is water repellant. It still will have to be dried.

Core temperature is maintained by eating calories. As you begin to starve, your body burns glycogen in muscles and your liver, then you begin to burn fat about a week later depending upon caloric demand. If you maintain a higher core temperature (within reason), then your body doesn't have to catabolize so much tissue. It cuts down on the calories needed for existence.

When outside, a lot of heat is lost through your face. Wearing an inexpensive balaclava will reduce the wicking away effects of wind and frostbite. Everyone should toss one in their vehicles to protect themselves.

Insulating your feet is just as important. A huge amount of soldiers have gotten trench foot during wartime exposure to the cold. As little as thirteen hours exposed to wet and cold can result in numbness and reduced circulation. It can create the formation of sores that get infected.

Refugees created by supply chain disruptions in Wintertime, will learn all too well the importance of insulating their bodies to protect them from the cold.

Up next: It's risky to wage open war or a covert war; it's pretty risk-free to use economic warfare.
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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11/30/2012 04:36 AM
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Re: Human survivability with supply chain disruptions and its effect on populations
It's risky to wage open war or a covert war; it's pretty risk-free to use economic warfare

Right now, many nations are using economic sanctions as a means of manipulating Iran by applying economic pressure. It's caused a large disinvestment of foreign money in their markets which causes a huge loss of trade, mostly in their oil sales. In addition, the Iranian currency (rial) is being manipulated against the dollar. Iranian citizens have also been dumping their currency to purchase other currency, and the flight from the rial. This has resulted in a loss of 2/3 of its value in 15 months. You can imagine the chaos.


The EURO is also being utilized to destabilize the rial. The rial versus the EURO has lost a ¼ of its value in 18 months.
[link to www.bbc.co.uk]

The take away point is that nations use economic warfare to cripple other nation's economy and for the most part, it's relatively risk-free unless they decide to retaliate.

If China's yuan (renminbi) were to actively sell dollars or begin a trade war, then other nations might lose confidence in the dollar too. It would cost them a lot of money in lost trade for their goods, and so economists think their government won't allow it to happen. But if it did, the shock and awe from such an economic attack would stun most Americans. It's highly likely that other nations attempting to preserve their own wealth, would follow suit given the lack of trust in the value of the dollar.

The official exchange rate of the yuan versus the dollar has been very fixed since late 2008 at 0.14-016 yuan to the dollar.

A major change in the value of the yuan versus the dollar would likely change the status of the petrodollar status forever.
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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11/30/2012 04:54 AM
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Re: Human survivability with supply chain disruptions and its effect on populations
If Iran thought their economy would collapse, would they hesitate to use an EMP weapon?

We all know that Iran has been actively researching nuclear technology. It's highly likely that they're developing fissionable material that could be enriched to such an extent that it could give them an atomic weapon.

When a nation can't actively engage their enemy with direct force sufficient to overcome them, and yet their own country is collapsing around them, then there's always a chance of them using what weapons they have to their best advantage. Should Iran launch an EMP weapon 300 miles above the continental USA, then it would do little to destroy the nation with radiation, but it would send the USA back to the pre-electronic age.

Such a change would remarkably destroy most electronics in an instant. Unless the devices are shielded from the pulse, then their electronic components are trashed. It would wipe out civilian communications, medical technology, refrigeration, most computer technology, banking, transportation, oil refineries, chemical creation, etc. The losses would be incalculable.

Of course such an attack would be met with annihilation to Iran and create an equal EMP weapon or highly likely decisive nuclear strike. The latter less likely from nuclear drift of toxic isotopes and climate change from nuclear winter.

Some estimates for an EMP weapon are 90% casualties in the USA from supply chain disruption after a year's duration.

Many of the specialized transformers necessary for power generation have to be especially made, and if destroyed the amount of time to acquire new ones could be in many months or years. Of course the installation of so many would take Herculean effort as well, and require technicians from around the world to install them. We simply don't have enough manpower to do it alone.

A nation risks everything to use such a device. A terrorist organization risks very little since they can't be destroyed directly, only indirectly by attacking individual members in drone strikes. How long before terrorist organization uses an EMP weapon to destroy the technological level of the USA?

There have been rumors that Israel has an EMP weapon, and would use it against Iran to ultimately stop their nuclear research and destroy them.

It's only a matter of time before it happens somewhere, and always the supply chain is what is crippled and results in massive deaths.
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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11/30/2012 01:35 PM
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Re: Human survivability with supply chain disruptions and its effect on populations
It need not be an enemy from outside America that destroys her
...and it could happen to any country.

While fingers are often pointed at potential enemies, the real enemy might be within the USA.

Our politicians have let runaway spending erode the core of our nation, and now with so many entitlements, we simply can't pay our bills. The gestures that they're making to trim spending is laughable.

Should the wealthy pay their fair share? Yes. Do they? Probably. Should corporations pay more? Well we have the highest corporate tax rate in the world, but the reality is a lot of corporations use the existing tax code to their advantage. Should they be faulted for that, or should we fault the politicians who wrote the tax code? If the corporation pay more in taxes, will there be any money to pay for healthcare, or even hire anyone?

Some pretend that there really is no issue with the fiscal cliff at all. According to them, the economy will grow faster than our debt burdens. I doubt it. Look at the huge decline in real wealth, much of it due to unemployment (which leads to lost government revenues through taxation), lost real estate wealth (which leads to mortgage defaults and other loan defaults), slower that average income gains, losses in the stock market and mutual funds.

Meanwhile the world watches as we implode. At some point, despite the world-wide practice of investing in other government treasury bonds, does it make any sense to invest in them when gold is in such demand?

The real enemy is inflation, and all this government spending is creating it.

During the Great Depression, many of the wealthiest people saw the handwriting on the wall. They sold their assets and went to a cash position. Then when the markets dramatically dropped, they swooped in and purchased stock for pennies on the dollar. That action annihilated the wealth of the nation and concentrated it in the hands of a few. No real gains were made by the middle class until long after WW2 and they could invest in owning their own homes.

The ruin created by these kinds of actions, that's the real work of the enemy.
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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11/30/2012 02:00 PM
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Re: Human survivability with supply chain disruptions and its effect on populations
Isn't it very odd when someone prentends to be the original poster and cuts and pastes something from GLP to another forum? How bizarre is that? Someone posted the very first post from here over on thetreeoflberty forum.
David Fap

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11/30/2012 02:08 PM
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Re: Human survivability with supply chain disruptions and its effect on populations
I am usually a douchebag male pig, but this post is serious.
I have much experience working in the food production/food plant business. I will say that inventories of raw/bulk supplies that are processed into what we would buy in a supermamrket, are kept to bare minimums. Literally, a food plant has maybe two or three days maximum of stored raw/bulk supplies. If a dozen semi trailer loads a day do not show up to each plant, it will 100% close down in a maximum of three days. Even once the finished product leaves the plant, it will be warehoused and even then there is only a few days storage before it is shipped out and immediately purchased by consumers. So the botton line is, three days is all it takes for warehouses to be wiped out and only a couple days before any food plants run out of supples if there was ANY disruption to the semi trucks.
Don't forget, that food plants require massive amounts of chemicals like sanitizers/acids/alkalis for cleaning and the maintenance side requires large amounts of things like oils of all kinds. Any plant will have a dozen different lubricating oils to stock. Again, not a whole hell of alot of stock is allowed to be kept. If even one semi obscure oil for a specialized piece of production equipment is not available, then the whole plant comes to a standstill. Something as simple as a barrel of Capella/Marcol/Omalla/Tellus/etc etc can bring a plant to a complete standstill if unavailable. And those are common lube oils that take forever to arrive because nobody stocks much, say nothing of the rare ultra expensive stuff for the truly proprietary machines, or something like a ultra rare oil that needs to be airmailed/fedexed from europe and arrives literally the day we are due to run out.
So to sum up, food plants do not stock much food supplies or even maintenance supplies. They are ALWAYS down to the wire with the just in time system. One glitch and the plant shuts down. By relying on so many far flung places to get critical supplies, every food plant is extremely vulnerable to any and all disruptions, even minor ones. And this is in 'normal' times. Trust me people, our food supply system walks a very fine rope- 'right now'. Where does our food come from? Beyond the supermarket, the real source is those ugly, old and nasty buildings in the industrial/shitty parts of your city. Inside are hundreds of workers that make your pizzas, pork and beans, etc. Behind them are wacked out/stressed supervisors screaming on the phone to suppliers as to where their deliveries are and they need them by xxxx time or they will miss deadlines and piss off a supermarket chain and lose a contract. This shit happens EVERY DAY RIGHT NOW. 'We' can barely run our just in time system. A generation ago, each food plant had weeks/months of supplies stored....now its literally measured in hours.
I cannot fathom the instant starvation if highways were closed/power shut off/lost city water/etc. Semi trucks are the absolute backbone off all food in the country. Period. If the trucks cannot run, people starve. Its that simple and that fine of razors edge.
The people that fail to keep several weeks or months food supply at home are begging for deaths in their family. Lack of food will cause disease to creep in/civil unrest and society goes into a downward spiral immediately. If you doubt this, just think of how upset people get a restaurant when their order takes a little longer than expected. They flip out! And that is when they are already well fed, and enjoying a night out. They have no practical reason for getting pissed off, but the animal beast snarls quickly when it comes to food. You cant mess with peoples access to food. They instantly flip out. If they are actually starving in a shtf scenario, instant war zone for every town and city as people revert back to growling dragons ready to kill for a can of beans.
Visit me on Twitter. I am "David Fap"
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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11/30/2012 05:54 PM
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Re: Human survivability with supply chain disruptions and its effect on populations
All it takes is a oil shortage to disrupt transportation and the supply chain

67-69% of the oil needed in the USA is imported. We use it for a variety of things, not just fuel but plastics and fertilizers. If we had a disruption in the oil supply, then we'd tap into the US Strategic reserve, but that wouldn't last long. That's mainly to ensure that critical infrastructure has some, not the consumer.

Since the field corn harvest was low, there's not any for ethanol production. Fuel costs rise. Fuel costs rise because of high demand and low supply.

If the barges don't operate from December to March as predicted, then a lot of expensive rail cars will transport goods and then trucks. That means a whole lot of demand and hence fuel prices rise.

Where do we get oil? We want the closest source that's from a friendly nation. This means some from Mexico, but not from Venezuela if we can help it. We bring a lot from Saudi Arabia. The most amount comes from Canada, a fact that will surprise a lot of people. We get some from Nigeria.

[link to www.eia.gov]

If the Persian Gulf gets closed, it mainly affects nations that make up the European Union. It's not merely an American issue, as all countries are vulnerable if there's an issue with the transportation or with drilling or the refineries, etc.
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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11/30/2012 07:08 PM
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Re: Human survivability with supply chain disruptions and its effect on populations
Supply Chain Disruption from a Strike

The Trucking Industry has long had strikes that shut down operations for a period. The Teamsters have really lost ground, and I don't think they could mount a nation-wide strike. Even if they did, a lot of shipments are going by air, rail, barge, etc now, so maybe it's not relevant.


I don't know, maybe if things get chaotic, they'll shut down for a long time, but not forever.
beated
The kind of shutdown I'm more concerned about is one that occurs as a FlashMob by Occupy Wall Street or similar organizations. There's been a big push to evoke “non-compliance” in the same manner as Gandhi or Martin Luther King used. It's certainly effective.

If folks from either end of the political spectrum decide to call a general strike, they might do things like block the roads, stop cargo from being loaded, create disturbances, and often people who're part of organized labor will join the strike.

If it's a general strike, people who are protesting call in sick en masse, all run their water at the same time, or turn on water in public restrooms. They'll use creative means of creating chaos.

Such things could easily cause disruptions to the supply chain.
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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11/30/2012 07:57 PM
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Re: Human survivability with supply chain disruptions and its effect on populations
The biggest risk of all: what happens if the mob of those on government assistance don't get credit anymore?

We've driven the number of people on public assistance to an all time high. A variety of social programs were created during the time of FDR's presidency, and our nation has only added to those who receive government funds.

Now don't get me wrong. I'm not against giving people assistance. To be honest, most of them paid into a system in blood, or sweat. Veterans get assistance, social security is the largest government assistance, Medicare, Medicaid, Stafford loan guarantees, but then there's the tradition things like food stamps, emergency food assistance, unemployment insurance, public housing, etc. There's tons of programs and many of you paid money into a system and now you're collecting checks or benefits.

Now what happens in a collapse when the government checks get slower and slower to be deposited into EMT cards or direct deposited into banking accounts? I think given the 46 million on food stamps and the 13 million or so that are getting unemployment, that many of those folks who're hanging on by a thread will LOSE IT if there's no money coming in.

Lest you think I'm picking on the poor, imagine if veterans didn't see their government retirement deposited. As of July 2012, there were half a million veterans waiting to receive benefits. What if they lose patience like Veterans did in the Bonus Strike of 1932 and 1933? That one had military intervention to stop it.

These kinds of issues will create supply chain disruptions from all the chaos.
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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12/01/2012 07:03 PM
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Re: Human survivability with supply chain disruptions and its effect on populations
Looks like I'm not the only one who's come to a similar conclusion about supply chains in an economic collapse. Here's one dealing with the collapse of the EURO that leads to world-wide issues in the supply chain especially due to JIT inventory controls.
[link to www.feasta.org]
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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12/01/2012 07:28 PM
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Re: Human survivability with supply chain disruptions and its effect on populations
Many of you reading this are probably trying to evaluate when refugees of the Horde would go to in your region. There are of course recent population density maps based upon the US Census data. One could probably compare and contrast that information, along with many of the other factors previously listed for your state and then make an informed decision about relocation.

Most refugees will probably cluster as they migrate, and the most likely roads are the interstates. If you're near these areas, you're not in a great place for the locust invasion.
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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12/02/2012 11:48 AM
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Re: Human survivability with supply chain disruptions and its effect on populations

Collapse of the petrodollar
old guard

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12/03/2012 08:42 PM
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Re: Human survivability with supply chain disruptions and its effect on populations
Thank you for the facts, as i see it, toohf
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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12/03/2012 08:46 PM
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Re: Human survivability with supply chain disruptions and its effect on populations
Thank you for the facts, as i see it, toohf
 Quoting: old guard

You're welcome. I wish I were wrong.

Look at this extremely troubling report:
[link to investmentwatchblog.com]

"Even as U.S. government debt swells to more than $16 trillion, Treasuries and other dollar fixed- income securities will be in short supply next year as the Federal Reserve soaks up almost all the net new bonds.

The government will reduce net sales by $250 billion from the $1.2 trillion of bills, notes and bonds issued in fiscal 2012 ended Sept. 30, a survey of 18 primary dealers found. At the same time, the Fed, in its efforts to boost growth, will add about $45 billion of Treasuries a month to the $40 billion in mortgage debt it’s purchasing, effectively absorbing about 90 percent of net new dollar-denominated fixed-income assets, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co."
Direct Link:
[link to www.sfgate.com]
Bowyn Aerrow

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12/03/2012 10:36 PM

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Re: Human survivability with supply chain disruptions and its effect on populations
With 85% of the US population in cities and suburban areas, the Government wouldn't bother trying to save them. yes at first military would be called into to city centers to quells panic and riots, but then would pull out to the outskirts of these cement cemeteries to prevent people from entering or leaving.

Small towns, primarily agricultural ones and ones that support mines and other natural resource extraction would be protected.

This is a triage method in order to save America. We see it on the battle field, we see it in ERs over ran with a big disaster. Only those patients one can really save quickly are saved, the worst off ones are allowed to die so medical supplies, staff can be used to treat the minor injuries and get people back on their feet.

When antibiotics first hit the market during one of the Wars, it wasn't gunshot military that were given the small supply, it was those with STDs who were given antibiotics and put on the battlefield.

The scenario you lay out is a death situation. There is no 'save everyone' available, there is only 'save what you can, save what can be self supportive in the long run'.

I moved away from the big cities during the Reagan Administration when Rex 84 as being signed into law. [link to en.wikipedia.org]

Continuance of Government is the plan for the USA in a national all affecting crises. Understand this is the same president who signed into law that all of those convicted of any crime were to be the first shoved out of the fall out shelters with brooms to sweep up the radioactive dust.

Through the years the government of the USA has signed into law more and more draconian measures. The end result is that if a big event took place, one that affected the whole of North America or the whole world. Populations in major cities would be sacrificed, locked in with the military to prevent their escape and allowed to die.

Few people in the cities would escape, and their names are already on the extraction list(s) - they are picked due to their skill set, engineers, doctors, scientists. They are hand picked every few years based on the assets they would bring for the brain trust of a post-event society.

The second level on that list is critical politicians - most likely your senator, your governor is NOT on that list.

Continuance of Government doesn't even bother to save the POTUS, it runs under the assumption that the POTUS was lost to the event. Congress is written out of the new government, it is basically a triage government that dictates orders until such time as social stability can be established.

Each nation has a similar set of 'emergency guidelines' which is in place to insure their survival of their government (not so much their politicians, their way of life) and insure the survival of those most likely to succeed in a post emergency world. Small towns, small communities are highest on that list of saving than large cities/communities.
"My Dog, its full of fleas!"
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“A paranoid is someone who knows a little of what's going on. A psychotic is a guy who's just found out what's going on.”
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Anonymous Coward (OP)
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12/04/2012 12:59 AM
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Re: Human survivability with supply chain disruptions and its effect on populations
With 85% of the US population in cities and suburban areas, the Government wouldn't bother trying to save them. yes at first military would be called into to city centers to quells panic and riots, but then would pull out to the outskirts of these cement cemeteries to prevent people from entering or leaving.

Small towns, primarily agricultural ones and ones that support mines and other natural resource extraction would be protected.

This is a triage method in order to save America. We see it on the battle field, we see it in ERs over ran with a big disaster. Only those patients one can really save quickly are saved, the worst off ones are allowed to die so medical supplies, staff can be used to treat the minor injuries and get people back on their feet.

When antibiotics first hit the market during one of the Wars, it wasn't gunshot military that were given the small supply, it was those with STDs who were given antibiotics and put on the battlefield.

The scenario you lay out is a death situation. There is no 'save everyone' available, there is only 'save what you can, save what can be self supportive in the long run'.

I moved away from the big cities during the Reagan Administration when Rex 84 as being signed into law. [link to en.wikipedia.org]

Continuance of Government is the plan for the USA in a national all affecting crises. Understand this is the same president who signed into law that all of those convicted of any crime were to be the first shoved out of the fall out shelters with brooms to sweep up the radioactive dust.

Through the years the government of the USA has signed into law more and more draconian measures. The end result is that if a big event took place, one that affected the whole of North America or the whole world. Populations in major cities would be sacrificed, locked in with the military to prevent their escape and allowed to die.

Few people in the cities would escape, and their names are already on the extraction list(s) - they are picked due to their skill set, engineers, doctors, scientists. They are hand picked every few years based on the assets they would bring for the brain trust of a post-event society.

The second level on that list is critical politicians - most likely your senator, your governor is NOT on that list.

Continuance of Government doesn't even bother to save the POTUS, it runs under the assumption that the POTUS was lost to the event. Congress is written out of the new government, it is basically a triage government that dictates orders until such time as social stability can be established.

Each nation has a similar set of 'emergency guidelines' which is in place to insure their survival of their government (not so much their politicians, their way of life) and insure the survival of those most likely to succeed in a post emergency world. Small towns, small communities are highest on that list of saving than large cities/communities.
 Quoting: Bowyn Aerrow

I agree that if a collapse lasts for any length of time beyond a few weeks, a lot of people could die if the utilities can't get supplies. I think what would happen is a slow collapse where sporatic issues with supply chain disruptions lead to accidental things happening. Some could be minor like underdosing of water treatment and people getting sick.

Yes, if the urban areas get too chaotic, then it simply would be easier to order evacuations, pull back, then wait a few weeks and go back in. A lot would have died, either the refugees depending on the season, and within the city.

There were plans drawn up at distributed deep underground bunkers for critical infrastructure folks and continuance of government. A lot of people won't believe that, but it's common knowledge. See:
[link to www.louisvillemegacavern.com]
[link to www.louisvillemegacavern.com]
It was set up to house 50,000 people with it's own water supply plus food, dorms, hospital, etc.

They were set up across the country. Who knows what plans they have now?
jj24seven

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12/04/2012 01:22 AM
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Re: Human survivability with supply chain disruptions and its effect on populations
"I wanted to start a new topic, and I'd like it to be a serious discussion based on critical thinking, not opinion. I'm interested in supply chain disruptions and the long term effects of a decrease in population as a result of that disruption."


Based on my studies on famines/disasters around the world recent and through history this would not be enough to cause any significant decrease in population.

It would be hard going and a lot of poverty, but not a great effect on the population.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 28410867


where i live... tons of folks on methadone (clinic prescribed) I've had to help my friends get off these meds (i watched their babies while they detox) and I saw 45 days of pure hell for them....i'm talking a painful, unable to sleep (2 did sleep for 30 days) and ALL of them said it felt like their bones were weak. I just wanted to warn others to start researching a "cold turkey" plan and back up friends for the children. one friend quit at 5mg and 120mg <-3 years later, and said BOTH withdrawls were the same! if you know someone on meds try to make contact for the kids sake ...prayers for everyone!
535
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12/04/2012 01:24 AM
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Re: Human survivability with supply chain disruptions and its effect on populations
Many high power weapons with a high rate of fire, and great amounts of ammunition.
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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12/06/2012 12:46 AM
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Re: Human survivability with supply chain disruptions and its effect on populations
Disease and the economic collapse

As the economic collapse unfolds, they'll be interruptions in the supply chain. As people leave the urban areas in a rush, one thing will happen regardless of the level of violence: disease will began to be passed along from one refugee to another.

We know in history, that when people congregate, and are using the bathroom outside, then they're not be careful or hygienic. Hot water and soap is in short supply, and some people will begin to pass along their germs. Depending upon the season, it could be respiratory or intestinal flu.

Right now, England is seeing a doubling of cases of the norovirus. That illness is very nasty as it's spread by fecal matter from improperly washing hands and then preparing food. Even in commercial kitchens who are using sanitizers in the dishwater, it's not enough to take care of basic handwashing and good common sense. Classically it spreads through a restaurant, or from infected people on a cruise liner, or visitors to a nursing home that then go home and spread it to their family members.

The norovirus is bad enough as it causes vomiting and diarrhea, but with exposure in the wild and struggling with cold weather, the refugees will see a much higher incidence rate due to depressed immune systems: lack of sleep, hunger, exposure, dehydration, poor sanitation, etc.

As refugees migrate through your area, a lot of them will be dirty, hungry, and carrying disease.

The worst part is that epidemics spread via the supply chain too. They're a disease vector since the drivers are mobile and introducing their illness into the community they pass through. A stop at a gas station, grabbing a bite to eat, spending a night in a motel that's improperly cleaned afterward, etc.

Expect disease to play a factor when the economic collapse arrives. Be very cautious about greeting and mingling with new arrivals in your region.

The link I posted earlier was drawn up specifically for pandemics and their role in crippling the supply chain.
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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12/06/2012 07:44 AM
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Re: Human survivability with supply chain disruptions and its effect on populations
Our differences will divide us when the collapse comes

Whatever nation you live in, even if you feel it's a homogeneous one, the reality is that your nation is made up of a variety of individuals with various beliefs, backgrounds, age level, ethnicity, sexuality, spirituality, education, income, occupation, and on and on ad infinitium. We are unusually unique in myriad ways.

When a collapse occurs, people will “need” to put the blame on someone. The easiest thing to do is to say that the collapse occurred because of ________. If you're different than the vocal majority in your neighborhood, history has taught us that in perilous times that the uniqueness of this individual is no longer considered, and he/she becomes a symbol for whatever has caused the disaster. You'll be lumped into a category.

In history, tribal people lived in largely monoculture communities. Those who are different will not fit in well in that kind of society. It's unrealistic and potentially volatile.

When there's a collapse of any sort, the majority will not have prepared. In order to survive, they'll modify their morals, and subsequently will steal, attack, harm, etc people by deciding that it's acceptable to harm them. They have to justify it, or else it would make their actions evil.

Note: You may think that because you're a particular ethnicity or religion that it doesn't affect you. The reality is that each potential group could be attacked. Say you're a clean cut respectable ________, someone different will think, “Well, they're not like me, and I am hungry, and I really don't respect their lifestyle, beliefs, effect on society” ...and therefore that conclusion allows evil to happen.

You might be older and therefore perceived as weaker and wealthier, and a young person may chose to rob your home because of that difference. It could be ultimately as arbitrary as living on a certain side of the street.

If you think that I've made any sense whatsoever, then please take this message to heart.
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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12/07/2012 11:01 PM
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Re: Human survivability with supply chain disruptions and its effect on populations
Because of the wide ranging possibilities of any disaster on a supply chain, there is simply no reason to be ill-prepared for that eventuality.

90% of you could not raise enough food to feed yourself, even if you had adequate land, rainfall, seed, knowledge, and the ability to grow it.

Even if there were abundant game to hunt and trap, it would all be hunted out in a month or so of intense hunting without rules in a collapse. You know this is logically so. The same is true of fishing. They are extra times of getting a meal, and nothing more. That was true in history as many small villages overhunted the game in their area.

Since most of you don't possess the livestock for the dense calories provided in meat and milk and eggs, then most likely it would be years before you acquired those animals and the skills and the ability to raise enough feed for them. That's right, you have to grow food for THEM as well. Even if you had them, a simple mistake, a harsh winter, a plant disease, animal sickness, etc could kill whatever animals you're attempting to raise.

This means the only logical solution is buying food on sale, rotating it, and purchasing (or learning to like) food that you will eat.

Time is running out. No, not because of 2012 and doom, but because of common every day issues like the failure of fiat currency, the derivatives market, bad weather, drought, the change to another global currency, massive unemployment, war, or the much simpler personal issues of divorce, bad health, early retirement, etc.

That surplus is NOT wasted as long as you pay attention to expiration dates and eat it. With the drop in portion sizes in your purchased food (you know you've noticed it), and with the rising costs due to the Drought, and just plain old inflation, you will SAVE money by doing what every generation before this one did.
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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12/09/2012 01:27 AM
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Re: Human survivability with supply chain disruptions and its effect on populations
Shortages

If people in critical infrastructure roles felt that the currency of their nation was collapsing, then they'd likely discuss this with those in the supply chain and pre-order deliveries. Doesn't that follow? If you think there will be an interruption for whatever reason, then rather than sit still and lose money by inactivity, you want raw materials to keep your operation running.

Since many industries and processes are now interconnected by JIT, one movement of rushed supplies has a chain reaction. If you hear about those kinds of things: large changes in supplies being ordered or lots of movement along a chain, then you know something is up.

For example, if the drought results in closure of river barge traffic, as has been discussed here, then one could expect a change in supply movements by alternative means and being rushed. Of course that is contingent upon those industries that reply upon those supplies being willing, able, and having a budget to support those expenditures.
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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12/11/2012 10:45 AM
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Re: Human survivability with supply chain disruptions and its effect on populations
I want to be as crystal clear in my meaning as possible. If you heard that a utility company ordered more coal deliveries than normal or in higher amounts than normal, that would be a major red flag, wouldn't it?

You know that they're attempting to minimize their costs, so if they ordered more, especially a lot more, it would be that:
1) the price was going way up
2) a shortage was anticipated
3) they were worried about paying for it and wanted the supplies and then worried about the billing later
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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12/14/2012 09:54 AM
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Re: Human survivability with supply chain disruptions and its effect on populations
The cessation of grocery supply trucks is the most concerned aspect of a disaster

Today a lot of people don't understand nutrition or have the old skills of cooking or know how to manage their food supply or know how to preserve food.

We live in a world where much of our meals are ready-made. We can easily go to the grocery and purchase something that literally takes five minutes to heat up. It's already cooked, it merely needs to be made warm so it's more pleasant.

If there were an issue with the food supply trucks from the central warehouses that supply food to groceries, then a lot of people would have to cook again. Most people don't understand the basics of nutrition. They don't understand how much of each food group they need to eat, nor understand how many calories to consume under a varying workload, nor understand how many vitamin/minerals are needed, nor understand how many carbs they need to support their blood sugar, nor under how much protein they need in various essential amino acids so they maintain tissue integrity, nor understand how to get calcium without relying upon milk products. Without this basic information, it's certain that we'd have the same nutritional diseases we had in the 1920s.

Most people have a very limited repertoire of cooking. They don't understand how to prepare food during an emergency. They don't understand how to cook over a wood fire made into coals or using a rocket stove or a dutch oven. They don't know lots of different ways to prepare a meal, they know how to heat things up.

Most people have no idea how to use up whatever food is in their homes when a disaster strikes. They don't understand spoilage, loss of electrical power, inability to cook on the stove/oven, how to best mix and match foods to get a complete meal, etc.

Most people have no idea how to grow food, find it in the wild, prepare it, kill it if necessary, butcher it, and cook it. They also don't know how to preserve food so whatever they find in the wild can be eaten for extended periods. A lot of people will get sick from whatever food they source this way.

Because of all of these issues, a lot of people will die should the food supply chain be disrupted.
Don'tBeAfraid (OP)

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12/28/2012 09:28 AM

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Re: Human survivability with supply chain disruptions and its effect on populations
[link to hosted.ap.org]

Expect a major change in the supply chain due to the upcoming longshoremen strike in 15 key ports. It's estimated to affect 100 million tons of goods.

It's estimated to happen the evening of Dec 30th.
[link to www.dcvelocity.com]

Update, there's breaking news that they have extended the longshormen's contract in the short term to avoid the strike. It would have been ruinous.

Last Edited by Don'tBeAfraid on 12/28/2012 12:10 PM

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