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Northwest, N. Calif., Braces For More Rain and Snow!!!

 
Luisport (OP)

User ID: 28647720
Portugal
11/28/2012 04:28 PM

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Re: Northwest, N. Calif., Braces For More Rain and Snow!!!
NWSBayArea‏@NWSBayArea

12 hour rainfall total from #Venado -- 2.00" #bayarearain
Luisport (OP)

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11/28/2012 04:29 PM

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Re: Northwest, N. Calif., Braces For More Rain and Snow!!!
ABC7 News‏@abc7newsBayArea

UPDATE: The National Weather Service has cancelled the Wind Advisory for the Bay Area. #BayAreaRain
Anonymous Coward
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11/28/2012 04:36 PM
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Re: Northwest, N. Calif., Braces For More Rain and Snow!!!
HOLY COW!!!!!
LOOK AT THE AUSTRALIAN MODEL!!!!!
TERRIFYING AMOUNTS OF RAIN PREDICTED FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS!!!
New round of GFS model will come up soon.
[link to www.weatherzone.com.au]
damned
 Quoting: Sul-Americano 1063827


I sure hope those are millimeters and not centimeters! If centimeters this storm would make Sandy look like minor drizzle.
 Quoting: Fred 21515285


Here in the northeast Sandy was less than an inch of rain.

But freaky wind, maybe not quite even 75mph sustained, but some huge gusts like 200mph brought down thick trees (I had a pine with a 2 foot diameter trunk break in the middle) and power poles.

And terrible flooding at the coast.
Luisport (OP)

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11/28/2012 04:59 PM

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Re: Northwest, N. Calif., Braces For More Rain and Snow!!!
I have been watching models for the past week or so in disbelief as both the GFS and ECMWF have both been consistently predicting a very wet period for the West Coast. Perhaps this disbelief is the reason I am writing this blog so close to the beginning of the wet period.

It has been quite some time since the West Coast has seen rain like what is expected for the next several days, so let's break down what is to be expected.

The first storm will slam into the coast Wednesday, lasting into Thursday. This storm will likely be the weakest in the series, which is a testament to how intense these storms will be. This is because nearly 2 inches of rain is possible in the wettest areas in Northern California, as noted in the precipitation forecast for Wednesday through Thursday morning.
The good people at the NWS have also posted various watches and warnings mostly in California in anticipation of this precipitation. Wind Advisories are posted for parts of the Northern California as southeast winds will gust to 40 mph. Winter Weather Advisories are also posted for the western slopes of the Sierra Nevadas, but snow levels will be a relatively high 6,000 feet. In fact, this will be a theme for this wet period as these storms will be rather warm in nature. So while the rain is certainly a blessing for dry areas of California that are in the brink a more serious drought (see below), it would have been great is some more of this precipitation would fall as snow. Not only would this help the water supply, it would also help the skiing industry in the Sierra Nevadas that has suffered greatly over the past 12 months.
The next storm to slam into the coast will arrive Thursday and last through much of Friday. This storm will be considerably wetter, as the first storm will do a great job in priming the atmosphere. The wettest areas (see below) could see over 7 inches of rain. This will be on top of the rain that has already arrived on Wednesday.



This is just the first two storms. Needless to say, the West Coast will be rather wet and wild through the first week of December. There are some interesting notes I want to bring to your attention.

First, if you look at the 5 day precipitation forecast from Wednesday through Sunday, you will see that there is a bulls eye of rain expected for Northern California. The storm track has consistently pointed directly at the California coast north of the San Francisco Bay Area. It is safe to say that if nearly 11 inches of rain fall on this area over the next 5 days, there will be some flooding issues for the mountainous areas of Northern California. The good news is that the streams in the area are fairly low at this time of year.



Second, one of the reasons I have been in disbelief at the amount of rain expected from this parade of storms is that a significant amount of subtropical moisture is needed. For these types of storms, the subtropical moisture can usually be seen on satellite as a thick line of clouds that extends from near Hawaii and is pointed directly at the West Coast. When this type of pattern sets up, California can receive days upon days of heavy rain. This is often called the "Pineapple Express", or more scientifically, the "Atmospheric River". If you are interested in watching this atmospheric river set up, watch the satellite on WunderMap.

Third, while the heavy rain from these storms is expected through the weekend, I still question slightly the actual location of the heavy rain. Certainly, the heaviest rain is likely in the hills of Northern California, but any southward movement of this deep moisture could bring the bulls eye closer to the San Francisco Bay Area. However, a more northward track would bring significantly less rainfall to San Francisco. This is only worth a mention at this point. [link to www.wunderground.com]
Luisport (OP)

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11/28/2012 05:00 PM

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Re: Northwest, N. Calif., Braces For More Rain and Snow!!!
Jim Cantore‏@JimCantore

Mini bow (wind threat) heading towards Placerville, CA: [link to radar.weather.gov] …No warning at the time of this tweet #CAwx
SnowboardingAlien

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11/28/2012 05:06 PM

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Re: Northwest, N. Calif., Braces For More Rain and Snow!!!
first the east coast... now the the west coast.... im stocked up on food and ready to go.... not looking forward to the internet and power going out
I look up at the sky, and wonder where I am on earth. Then I wonder where I am in the solar system. Then I wonder where I am in the galaxy. Then I wonder where I am in the universe.
Luisport (OP)

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11/28/2012 05:06 PM

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Re: Northwest, N. Calif., Braces For More Rain and Snow!!!
ABC7 News‏@abc7newsBayArea

The strongest part of the rain and wind has passed through the Bay Area but scattered showers continue in the North & East Bay. #BayAreaRain
Luisport (OP)

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11/28/2012 05:07 PM

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Re: Northwest, N. Calif., Braces For More Rain and Snow!!!
PG&E‏@PGE4Me

#BayArea Outage Update (2 PM): North Bay – 40; #EastBay – 380; #SF – 30; Peninsula – 190; South Bay – 730 Bay Area Total – 1,370 #CAWx
Luisport (OP)

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11/28/2012 05:10 PM

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Re: Northwest, N. Calif., Braces For More Rain and Snow!!!
PG&E‏@PGE4Me

#CentralCoast Outage Update (2 PM): Monterey County – 700; #SantaCruz County – 2,500; San Benito County – 190; Central Coast Total – 3,390
Luisport (OP)

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11/28/2012 05:16 PM

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Re: Northwest, N. Calif., Braces For More Rain and Snow!!!
Darren Peck‏@WeatherAnchor

Rain coming to an end right on schedule with just over half an inch in most Sac gauges. Friday a.m. is the next soaker. Bigger than today.
Luisport (OP)

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11/28/2012 05:33 PM

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Re: Northwest, N. Calif., Braces For More Rain and Snow!!!
bump
Thor's Hamster

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11/28/2012 05:34 PM
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Re: Northwest, N. Calif., Braces For More Rain and Snow!!!
Who's Larry Storm? Sounds like a good weatherman name.
Apollo astronauts couldn't have passed through Van Allen's Belt. Van Allen wore suspenders.
Thor's Hamster

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11/28/2012 05:35 PM
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Re: Northwest, N. Calif., Braces For More Rain and Snow!!!
MAKE IT RAIN!!!!
Apollo astronauts couldn't have passed through Van Allen's Belt. Van Allen wore suspenders.
Luisport (OP)

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11/28/2012 05:41 PM

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Re: Northwest, N. Calif., Braces For More Rain and Snow!!!
Weather Underground‏@wunderground

First West Coast storm has brought 1-2 inches of rain for many places in Northern California. Much more to come. [link to wxug.us]
Earth Cries

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11/28/2012 05:57 PM

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Re: Northwest, N. Calif., Braces For More Rain and Snow!!!
Hey, Luis, the Weather Channel just said that Mt. Shasta is going to get 12 to 16 feet of snow!
Mark 13:20 And except that the Lord had shortened those days, no flesh should be saved: but for the elect's sake, whom he hath chosen, he hath shortened the days.
Thor's Hamster

User ID: 1248699
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11/28/2012 06:04 PM
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Re: Northwest, N. Calif., Braces For More Rain and Snow!!!
Hey, Luis, the Weather Channel just said that Mt. Shasta is going to get 12 to 16 feet of snow!
 Quoting: Earth Cries


Nice. Shasta covered n snow is awesome! Great views of it from the train as you go by. The Union Pacific Railroad (which Amtrak's Coast Starlight uses) passes through Dunsmuir and then up through Mount Shasta City (pop. 2,500) with the mountain off the east. Mount Shasta so dominates the landscape to the east, that you can see it for 2 hours from the train (between Dunsmuir, CA and Klamath Falls, OR).
Apollo astronauts couldn't have passed through Van Allen's Belt. Van Allen wore suspenders.
Thor's Hamster

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11/28/2012 06:05 PM
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Re: Northwest, N. Calif., Braces For More Rain and Snow!!!
Who is LARRY STORM? lol
Apollo astronauts couldn't have passed through Van Allen's Belt. Van Allen wore suspenders.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 28518686
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11/28/2012 06:21 PM
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Re: Northwest, N. Calif., Braces For More Rain and Snow!!!
Who is LARRY STORM? lol
 Quoting: Thor's Hamster


I wondered that also. Maybe Luis is Larry.

** Btw- Luis you are doing a great job of keeping us informed.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 28662387
Australia
11/28/2012 06:34 PM
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Re: Northwest, N. Calif., Braces For More Rain and Snow!!!
bump Stay safe folks.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1026110
United States
11/28/2012 06:39 PM
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Re: Northwest, N. Calif., Braces For More Rain and Snow!!!
Sacramento Bee:

Atmospheric rivers form very differently from hurricanes, but the rainfall intensity can cause damage on the same scale.

"There is potential for one of the longer-lived atmospheric river events that we've seen in the last 10 years or so," said Marty Ralph, an expert on the phenomenon at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Earth System Research Laboratory in Boulder, Colo.

"These are the types of events that are responsible for the biggest flood damages on the West Coast," he said. "To me, that's the analogue to the hurricane problem."

[link to www.sacbee.com]
Anonymous Coward
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11/28/2012 08:52 PM
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Re: Northwest, N. Calif., Braces For More Rain and Snow!!!
popeskull_fingbuttstir
Thor's Hamster

User ID: 1248699
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11/28/2012 08:55 PM
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Re: Northwest, N. Calif., Braces For More Rain and Snow!!!
MAKE IT RAIN, BABY!....MAKE IT RAIN!
Apollo astronauts couldn't have passed through Van Allen's Belt. Van Allen wore suspenders.
Bokonon
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11/28/2012 09:27 PM
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Re: Northwest, N. Calif., Braces For More Rain and Snow!!!
bump
Thor's Hamster

User ID: 1248699
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11/28/2012 09:31 PM
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Re: Northwest, N. Calif., Braces For More Rain and Snow!!!
Waiting for Larry Storm's next weather update. :)
Apollo astronauts couldn't have passed through Van Allen's Belt. Van Allen wore suspenders.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 17875044
United States
11/28/2012 10:25 PM
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Re: Northwest, N. Calif., Braces For More Rain and Snow!!!
Been pretty dry since 1:45 this afternoon.
curiouslyinterested

User ID: 25678800
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11/28/2012 10:55 PM

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Re: Northwest, N. Calif., Braces For More Rain and Snow!!!
[link to www.ssd.noaa.gov]

I'm not seeing much moisture west of CA. Certainly not enough to get the deluge expected over the next few days.

Very possible I'm wrong though.
Beware The Suits
tarfonwxx

User ID: 28221753
United States
11/28/2012 10:59 PM
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Re: Northwest, N. Calif., Braces For More Rain and Snow!!!
Been pretty dry since 1:45 this afternoon.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 17875044


starts up again thurs afternoon
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 23792939
United States
11/28/2012 11:17 PM
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Re: Northwest, N. Calif., Braces For More Rain and Snow!!!
Waiting for Larry Storm's next weather update. :)
 Quoting: Thor's Hamster


He's probably checking in with his uncle Large Storm.
tarfonwxx

User ID: 28221753
United States
11/29/2012 12:01 AM
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Re: Northwest, N. Calif., Braces For More Rain and Snow!!!
@RyanMaue Pineapple Express kicks up into another higher gear in 6-days. Typhoon Bopha lands in Philippines now w/GFS 00z. [link to pic.twitter.com]
tarfonwxx

User ID: 28221753
United States
11/29/2012 12:03 AM
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Re: Northwest, N. Calif., Braces For More Rain and Snow!!!
@AlexJLamers The upper level low off the Pacific coast looks pretty neat on water vapor satellite this evening: [link to twitter.com (secure)]

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