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Northwest, N. Calif., Braces For More Rain and Snow!!!

 
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 15949376
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11/29/2012 11:08 AM
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Re: Northwest, N. Calif., Braces For More Rain and Snow!!!
I live in Sacramento, CA and this storm is not as intense as made out to be. Right now it's simply overcast - no rain.

Rained yesterday but not severe.

We are supposed to get a few more days of rain. If it's anything like yesterday I think we'll be fine.

I only speak for Sacramento.
5a
Anonymous Coward
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11/29/2012 11:20 AM
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Re: Northwest, N. Calif., Braces For More Rain and Snow!!!
@RyanMaue Pineapple Express kicks up into another higher gear in 6-days. [link to pic.twitter.com]
 Quoting: tarfonwxx


Luis, does this mean something else is coming in 6 days?
 Quoting: tarfonwxx


The Pineapple Express is when storms form in the moist air near Hawaii and follow the same track eastward to CA. This can happen with 6 or 7 storms over a 2 month period. Pretty damp! It's usually associated with El Niño, I think, but haven't heard of that condition currently.
Anonymous Coward
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11/29/2012 11:21 AM
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Re: Northwest, N. Calif., Braces For More Rain and Snow!!!
I live in Sacramento, CA and this storm is not as intense as made out to be. Right now it's simply overcast - no rain.

Rained yesterday but not severe.

We are supposed to get a few more days of rain. If it's anything like yesterday I think we'll be fine.

I only speak for Sacramento.
5a
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 15949376


Good news! Just moved away from there. The Folsom Dam always makes me nervous when a lot of rain fills it!
Fred
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11/29/2012 11:26 AM
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Re: Northwest, N. Calif., Braces For More Rain and Snow!!!
I live in Sacramento, CA and this storm is not as intense as made out to be. Right now it's simply overcast - no rain.

Rained yesterday but not severe.

We are supposed to get a few more days of rain. If it's anything like yesterday I think we'll be fine.

I only speak for Sacramento.
5a
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 15949376


The first storm wasn't too unusual except for some high coastal wind gusts. The next storms are the huge predicted rain amounts.
tarfonwxx

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11/29/2012 11:26 AM
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Re: Northwest, N. Calif., Braces For More Rain and Snow!!!
ARkStorm: California's other, much bigger, 'Big One' (Nov 2, 2012)

[link to abclocal.go.com]
tarfonwxx

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11/29/2012 11:28 AM
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Re: Northwest, N. Calif., Braces For More Rain and Snow!!!
Watching the Atmospheric Rivers Flow

Even without knowing their cause, California has had epic floods during its history, and recently emergency planners have begun to take the "deep present" approach to them. What if the worst example we know, the great flood of 1862, were to recur today? That had the earmarks of an unusually large AR event or a rapid series of them. As the planning agencies contemplated that question, they prepared a scenario in 2010 with the Noachian name ARkStorm (for "AR thousand-year storm") clearly demonstrating that ARs are our other "Big One" beside earthquakes.

[link to science.kqed.org]
Anonymous Coward
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11/29/2012 11:30 AM
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Re: Northwest, N. Calif., Braces For More Rain and Snow!!!
I live in Sacramento, CA and this storm is not as intense as made out to be. Right now it's simply overcast - no rain.

Rained yesterday but not severe.

We are supposed to get a few more days of rain. If it's anything like yesterday I think we'll be fine.

I only speak for Sacramento.
5a
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 15949376


these storms have more impact on the coasts, and inland/mountain snowfall, so look at the sierras...
Anonymous Coward
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11/29/2012 11:33 AM
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Re: Northwest, N. Calif., Braces For More Rain and Snow!!!
@RyanMaue Pineapple Express kicks up into another higher gear in 6-days. [link to pic.twitter.com]
 Quoting: tarfonwxx


Luis, does this mean something else is coming in 6 days?
 Quoting: tarfonwxx


The Pineapple Express is when storms form in the moist air near Hawaii and follow the same track eastward to CA. This can happen with 6 or 7 storms over a 2 month period. Pretty damp! It's usually associated with El Niño, I think, but haven't heard of that condition currently.
 Quoting: Little Bee


no we are officially in an 'el nada.' yes that is the real name.

pineapple express is just one of many types of weather fronts that can manifest via atmo rivers. the ARkStorm proper is it's own entity.


yes i have been studying this and posting on it for two years now.

:)
Luisport (OP)

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11/29/2012 11:38 AM

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Re: Northwest, N. Calif., Braces For More Rain and Snow!!!
AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

RT @nwsseattle: High tides & low atmospheric pressure equals possible inland water minor tidal overflow through Sat.

4 hAccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

Light rain & fog are impacting Los Angeles early this AM, reducing the visibility below 2 mi. Motorists use caution.

4 hAccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

RT @accu_jesse: West. Storm so far: Power outages in Santa Cruz & San Mateo Co.; 93 mph wind gust @ Squaw Peak, CA.
Da Cat
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11/29/2012 11:38 AM
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Re: Northwest, N. Calif., Braces For More Rain and Snow!!!
Brookings OR just north of Crescent City. Been raining on/off a few days now. Not particularly excessive for Oregon as the coast always gets more rain than the interior, it is practically a rainforest climate here, and so much humus in the forests that a lot soaks in.

Now down in Cali they can't take so much...
Anonymous Coward
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11/29/2012 11:44 AM
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Re: Northwest, N. Calif., Braces For More Rain and Snow!!!
Brookings OR just north of Crescent City. Been raining on/off a few days now. Not particularly excessive for Oregon as the coast always gets more rain than the interior, it is practically a rainforest climate here, and so much humus in the forests that a lot soaks in.

Now down in Cali they can't take so much...
 Quoting: Da Cat 28150701


if you look at the sats you will see we in oregon are being hit by the tail of this. last week we took the brunt.
Luisport (OP)

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11/29/2012 11:44 AM

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Re: Northwest, N. Calif., Braces For More Rain and Snow!!!
AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

A series of storms in the West will bring tremendous high country snow & the risk of avalanches. [link to www.accuweather.com]
Anonymous Coward
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11/29/2012 11:56 AM
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Re: Northwest, N. Calif., Braces For More Rain and Snow!!!
the AR's have 'only recently been discovered' (last 11 or so years)...i happened to start watching a movie the other day that is just like what to expect (am on an old doom movie bender)...

category 6: the day of destruction

next movie:

category 7: the end of the world

netflix instant.

anyway with the 'recent discovery' in mind, how the hell can they say this is 'normal?'
Luisport (OP)

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11/29/2012 11:58 AM

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Re: Northwest, N. Calif., Braces For More Rain and Snow!!!
the AR's have 'only recently been discovered' (last 11 or so years)...i happened to start watching a movie the other day that is just like what to expect (am on an old doom movie bender)...

category 6: the day of destruction

next movie:

category 7: the end of the world

netflix instant.

anyway with the 'recent discovery' in mind, how the hell can they say this is 'normal?'
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 27662195


no it's not normal but it's like a cyclical event...
Anonymous Coward
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11/29/2012 11:59 AM
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Re: Northwest, N. Calif., Braces For More Rain and Snow!!!
Julie Generic
i finally got a reply to my question on the ARkStorm page...
"ARkStorm Julie: ARkStorm and atmospheric river are not the same thing. One is a disaster scenario, the other the name of the meteorological phenomenon -like the one that hit PNW and now hitting to CA. ARs happen frequently - ARkStorm-like storm - not so. Anyway, glad you are engaged.
2 minutes ago · Unlike · 1"
point: NOW HITTING CA. so i had a bit of a heads up on that and was going to research it when i saw someone post about the massive snow hitting the sierras...i thought oh dear, this is the blue print for ARkStorm....

Julie Generic hopefully i'll get more info:
Julie Generic thanks so much for explaining that...but it is the atmospheric rivers that create the ARkStorm scenario, am i correct? please keep us educated!!!! i've been following the arkstorm scenario for a couple years and find it very interesting, especially considering we don't get many of them. any links or info to help understand would be appreciated!
Yesterday at 6:26am · Like
Julie Generic woohoo, someone's online at ARkStorm site!
ARkStorm Yes, the ARkStorm scenario stitches together two large ARs (the actual data from 1969 and 1986) to form a storm similar to, but smaller than, The Great California Flood of 1861/62. Note, presently we quantify ARs by their date, because there was not a way of quantifying ARs. Dettinger and Ralph, ARkStorm alums, came up with an AR scale that will be known as "R-Cats" (more about that soon). We (Cox) called the scenario an AR 1000 (ARk) to prod the meteorological community to create a quantifiable scale for ARs. A pineapple express is one type of AR. (It is also a stoner movie.) ARs are not uncommon along the west coast of the US throughout the storm season. They bring in about 50% of the water in California - but they also bring in most of the calamity. Glad you like ARkStorm - I like your name.
23 minutes ago · Unlike · 1
Julie Generic OH wow, thanks, i was wondering why people were referring to pineapple express when it seemed to have a different explanation than the ARkStorm. that was confusing!!! not the stoner part, haha! the pineapple express storm bit. i'm in portland oregon and it's SO windy right now! i saw the report about the major snow hitting the sierras and was curious to look it up on the sat maps...trying to learn how to spot the 'streams.' i'd like to be better able to understand the difference, and relaTIONSHip, between the jet stream and atmospheric rivers. the flooding in england a couple years back was attributed as an ARkStorm, any thoughts on that? ...trying to find the article but it's evading me. i did get a return saying that atmospheric rivers are related to a broken jet stream? i know our jet stream has been having some major inconsistencies....thanks for your patience i just had my coffee...:P
Yesterday at 7:06am · Like · 1
Julie Generic ARkStorm Julie: The ARkStorm FB page is not a forecast page, but more about the creation and milestones in the life of the ARkStorm scenario, project and alumni. The ARkStorm FB page will be an inconsistent source of weather information (go to weather.gov for the real deal). However, being in Portland, it is pleasing that you are interested in all things ARkStorm. ARs are becoming more well known, but are a fairly new concept (15 yrs?) Here is some good background: [link to www.esrl.noaa.gov]
Luisport (OP)

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11/29/2012 12:03 PM

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Re: Northwest, N. Calif., Braces For More Rain and Snow!!!
julie should see Ryan Maue maps [link to twitter.com]
Anonymous Coward
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11/29/2012 12:05 PM
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Re: Northwest, N. Calif., Braces For More Rain and Snow!!!
julie should see Ryan Maue maps [link to twitter.com]
 Quoting: Luisport


[link to twitter.com (secure)]

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

thanks for the heads up...you shared this guys twitter with me on my arkstorm thread last week, i have it bookmarked but often forget to check in on stuff like that!
Luisport (OP)

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11/29/2012 12:06 PM

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Re: Northwest, N. Calif., Braces For More Rain and Snow!!!
Heavy Rain Invading Northern Calif., Northwest
UPDATED 7 AM PST, November 29, 2012
UPDATED By WeatherBug Sr. Meteorologist, Julie Gaddy

Although one round of rain has passed onto the West Coast, the threat of soggy weather is far from over from California to Washington. Many waves of rain will arrive along the northern California and Pacific Northwest Coast through the weekend. Rainfall amounts could exceed a foot across northern California, with the rest of the Northwest and northern California seeing 5 to 10 inches. Significant flooding and dangerous landslides will be possible.
A low pressure system is swirling along the Pacific Northwest Coast, and will move little over the next few days. Southwesterly winds will sweep waves of moisture onto the Pacific Coast over next five days. All this moisture will be dumped over Washington, Oregon, California, and even Idaho.
The rain will be heavy at times; by Sunday, more than a foot of rain will have fallen along the foothills of the Coast Range and Sierra with 4 to 5 inches farther north along the Oregon and Washington coasts.
As colder air pushes in from the west, snow levels will fall to 6,000 feet. Therefore, only the highest elevations will experience heavy wet snow. Elevations above 6,000 feet will see 4 to 8 inches with places like Mt. Lassen getting more than a foot. Winter Storm Warnings have been issued for the Siskiyous and the northern and central Sierra Nevada, and also the Teton and Sawtooth ranges.
Flood Watches stretch throughout northern California and southwestern Oregon for Thursday to Sunday. Flooding will be exacerbated in burnt areas across Northern California caused by this summer`s wildfires. The lack of vegetation along the hillsides will increase the runoff of water and mud. Additional flooding is possible as a result of snowmelt in the Sierra Nevada.
In addition to the heavy rain, gusty winds will increase as the low strengthens offshore. The mountains will see the strongest winds, with gusts up to 60 mph expected. The Central Valley will see sustained 20 to 30 mph with gusts of 40 to 55 mph. These winds will make travel along Interstates 5 and 80, U.S Route 50 and Highway 99 difficult, particularly for those in high-profile vehicles, and could also lead to localized power outages.
Wind Advisories are in effect for the Sacramento and northern San Joaquin valleys as well as the eastern Sierra and south-central Oregon. High Wind Watches and Warnings stretch across the eastern Sierra, along the northern California coast and in Oregon`s Klamath Basin.
The heavy rain chances will continue through the weekend as the weather pattern remains stuck in neutral. The pattern won`t break until the central U.S. high pressure slides east, which won't happen until early next week.
Wednesday brought Round One of the heavy rain to the West Coast. Santa Cruz, Calif., reported 2.41 inches of rain, while Sebastopol, Calif., measured 1.43 inches of rain. Honeydew, Calif., saw 2.92 inches of rain.

[link to web.live.weatherbug.com]
Luisport (OP)

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11/29/2012 12:06 PM

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[link to www.weatherbug.com]
tarfonwxx

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11/29/2012 12:08 PM
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Re: Northwest, N. Calif., Braces For More Rain and Snow!!!
thank you to the AC for the info on ARkstorm vs. AR's vs. Pineapple Express. so is it accurate to say we are now seeing one AR moving through the region whereas the ARkstorm forcasts two moving through? how does this one compare to the AR's used in the ARkstorm model from '69 and '86? thanks :)
Anonymous Coward
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11/29/2012 12:09 PM
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Re: Northwest, N. Calif., Braces For More Rain and Snow!!!
I live in Sacramento, CA and this storm is not as intense as made out to be. Right now it's simply overcast - no rain.

Rained yesterday but not severe.

We are supposed to get a few more days of rain. If it's anything like yesterday I think we'll be fine.

I only speak for Sacramento.
5a
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 15949376


This is the same for the east bay
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 21326930
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11/29/2012 12:12 PM
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Re: Northwest, N. Calif., Braces For More Rain and Snow!!!
I live in Sacramento, CA and this storm is not as intense as made out to be. Right now it's simply overcast - no rain.

Rained yesterday but not severe.

We are supposed to get a few more days of rain. If it's anything like yesterday I think we'll be fine.

I only speak for Sacramento.
5a
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 15949376


me2 so much for weather models AND climate change predictions...HAHAHAHAH

I'm in Marin
Anonymous Coward
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11/29/2012 12:22 PM
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Re: Northwest, N. Calif., Braces For More Rain and Snow!!!
thank you to the AC for the info on ARkstorm vs. AR's vs. Pineapple Express. so is it accurate to say we are now seeing one AR moving through the region whereas the ARkstorm forcasts two moving through? how does this one compare to the AR's used in the ARkstorm model from '69 and '86? thanks :)
 Quoting: tarfonwxx


i believe they combined those storms to create their model.

i didn't get as much info out of them as i wanted, and the link they gave me was pretty weak, but i have a whole plethora of links from last week to share. they have a party line of course...don't want to freak people out...

i believe that the difference between the AR and the ARkStorm is that the ARkStorm has a higher mag impaCT...see their explanation of qualifications...

tutorial: [link to www.meted.ucar.edu (secure)]

[link to science.kqed.org]
Watching the Atmospheric Rivers Flow
Andrew Alden Post on Nov 01, 2012 by Andrew Alden from QUEST Northern California

[link to jasoncordeira.weebly.com]
Jason M. Cordeira, Ph.D.

Home
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[link to urbanearth.gps.caltech.edu]
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[link to www.climatecentral.org]
atmospheric-river-takes-aim-on-west-coast-warmup-in-plains-

[link to www.esrl.noaa.gov]
Atmospheric River Information Page
Anonymous Coward
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11/29/2012 12:25 PM
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Re: Northwest, N. Calif., Braces For More Rain and Snow!!!


i'm sure it's been posted in this thread already but this is one major whopper of a doom scenario. i think you can see why i got so interested in atmospheric rivers if you watch this. ;)
Anonymous Coward
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11/29/2012 12:37 PM
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Re: Northwest, N. Calif., Braces For More Rain and Snow!!!
I live in Sacramento, CA and this storm is not as intense as made out to be. Right now it's simply overcast - no rain.

Rained yesterday but not severe.

We are supposed to get a few more days of rain. If it's anything like yesterday I think we'll be fine.

I only speak for Sacramento.
5a
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 15949376


Let's see what happens tomorrow. Yes, it is quiet this morning, and overcast.

I do think it may not be as bad as we were thinking it may be. But I would rather be prepared than not.
Anonymous Coward
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11/29/2012 12:47 PM
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Re: Northwest, N. Calif., Braces For More Rain and Snow!!!
Well is your fictional weather DOOM still on? Woke this morning to a lovely Rainbow right outside my front door...Let me know when your DOOM and GLOOM gets here...lmao

May have to post the pics of the lovely rainbow...
Anonymous Coward
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11/29/2012 12:59 PM
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Re: Northwest, N. Calif., Braces For More Rain and Snow!!!
Dual dancing cyclones off our coast ?

Anonymous Coward
User ID: 27662195
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11/29/2012 01:11 PM
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Re: Northwest, N. Calif., Braces For More Rain and Snow!!!
Dual dancing cyclones off our coast ?

 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 25801142


that's effed up....!!!

dual cyclones within a cyclone.

also last week during the AR storm off oregon we learned that these storms are 'the first in a train' of such storms.
Anonymous Coward
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11/29/2012 01:12 PM
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Re: Northwest, N. Calif., Braces For More Rain and Snow!!!
Dual dancing cyclones off our coast ?

 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 25801142


that's effed up....!!!

dual cyclones within a cyclone.

also last week during the AR storm off oregon we learned that these storms are 'the first in a train' of such storms.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 27662195


translate: that's a lot of low pressure, people!!!!

have your EQ and flood bug outs planned!
Luisport (OP)

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11/29/2012 01:14 PM

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Re: Northwest, N. Calif., Braces For More Rain and Snow!!!
NWSBayArea‏@NWSBayArea

Pacific Gales, high surf, and potential for heavy rain and flooding with the series of Pacific storms! [link to ow.ly] #bayarearain

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